How far below $115 if the markets go into a deeper correction? I could see ROKU lose $100 and maybe $86-$87 area, although it flashed below $100 on volume on the last moderate correction - it wasn't coming off the higher highs.

I know if we get an opportunity like that then I'd put 5% of every dollar I have into it. That's not something any financial advisor would ever do, but it's why the ROI's on rare openings are for the traders.

It worked out "ok" from $30 the last major correction that created that kind of opening.

The way I'll approach ROKU is if we have a big down open then I'll immediately be fishing low bids on weekly calls $3-5 above whatever price it opens at and see if the "v" bottom hits. If it does those calls will be in the money within 2 minutes.

If markets start green then I'll look for signals of continuation or bear trap. I'll be slower to make any entries due to the volume selling all day Friday afternoon.

It would be better to have a red opening push to green. That always has a better percentage of a true reversal taking hold. The green yo red coming off a day like Thursday/Friday would create a higher percentage likelihood of a rip downward.

Strategically if you start green and even get a push upward be thinking about any positions you are in that bounced and decide if you should get out, buy a protective Put at whatever the Friday low was or sell a covered call in the money out as much as a month.

https://www.chartmill.com/stock/analyzer/stock/WDC?utm_source=twitterUS&utm_medium=TA&utm_content=WDC&utm_campaign=social_tracking&view=technical-analysis


WDC

Pour a stiff drink because futures are UGLY.

Prognightmare said:

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Pour a stiff drink because futures are UGLY.

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Yikes. All cash Friday afternoon looking decent.

Prognightmare said:

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Pour a stiff drink because futures are UGLY.

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lol was going to say. Market opened and they got whacked

You're possibly correct and if you are margin calls will exacerbate the selling. This market had peak FOMO and TINA so people extended themselves on margin. Not saying it will, but it could get real ugly. JMO

So probably dumb question but do mutual funds work the same way as stocks in terms of gains and can you go "net free" on them? I.e if you bought a fund for $20k and it's worth $30k now, can you sell $20k off and not be taxed?

I've had 2 funds do really well over the past couple years and thinking about hedging and moving a large chunk to cash, but figured I would try to minimize taxes this year too...

gougler08 said:

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So probably dumb question but do mutual funds work the same way as stocks in terms of gains and can you go "net free" on them? I.e if you bought a fund for $20k and it's worth $30k now, can you sell $20k off and not be taxed?

I've had 2 funds do really well over the past couple years and thinking about hedging and moving a large chunk to cash, but figured I would try to minimize taxes this year too...

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Not unless they are in a retirement or Roth vehicle.

Futures down 40+. Sure hope that holds because it's an easy decision to buy. If it comes back up half way or more it sure is hard to pull the trigger.

oldarmy1 said:

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Futures down 40+. Sure hope that holds because it's an easy decision to buy. If it comes back up half way or more it sure is hard to pull the trigger.

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Buying spy or some of the bigger movers down?

You shopping in pre market?

Picked up some SPY $330 2/28 puts Friday after the bell. I won't be at a computer at the opening bell, but hopefully by 9:00 I will be. If S&P holds current levels and SPY opens right at $330, what is the best course of action?

khkman22 said:

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Picked up some SPY $330 2/28 puts Friday after the bell. I won't be at a computer at the opening bell, but hopefully by 9:00 I will be. If S&P holds current levels and SPY opens right at $330, what is the best course of action?

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If you see SPY below $330 at 4am and have ability to buy shares against your Puts then that's what I would do on 50% of them.

S&P has a gap at 3306 that would be filled at current futures and another gap down at 3268. That's not much further and I'd really like to see both gaps cleaned up with a quick v upward.

Otherwise, if we want to really get nasty there are gaps at 3205 3119 and 3094.

2948 would be a full 20% correction, which is always possible.

Will depend on first few mins of the open, but setting up for a nice intraday bounce. Keep in mind though that week 5 of months are the best for shorts, worst for longs.

oldarmy1 said:

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gougler08 said:

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So probably dumb question but do mutual funds work the same way as stocks in terms of gains and can you go "net free" on them? I.e if you bought a fund for $20k and it's worth $30k now, can you sell $20k off and not be taxed?

I've had 2 funds do really well over the past couple years and thinking about hedging and moving a large chunk to cash, but figured I would try to minimize taxes this year too...

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Not unless they are in a retirement or Roth vehicle.

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Well damn, guess I'll be getting a hefty tax bill this year as I'm going to go to a lot of cash at some point prior to the election

I think too 3306 is basically the 50 dma....

Futures down 50 now, algos are going to dump early! this could get ugly quick.

claym711 said:

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Will depend on first few mins of the open, but setting up for a nice intraday bounce. Keep in mind though that week 5 of months are the best for shorts, worst for longs.

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any idea why that is on week 5 of a month? Maybe just how it works out typically, but interesting.

Futures down 400 now

Futures down 74+. At 3264 That's all of the closest gaps filled. Now it gets interesting. I just bought my first ES mini call down 74.50.

Money never sleeps!

SPY opens for trading in 6 minutes. Looks like $332 Puts would be able to buy SPY at $326-$327 locking in $6-7/share. Will be taking first buys against the puts to do so.

To be clear the $332 put gives me the right/option to sell shares at that $332 price. So buying SPY this far down locks in that spread in case we bounce before open. If we keep dropping you make what you locked in but continue gaining in the options not bought against.

Bought SPY $325.50 woah!

Exactly! Something that I've learned from you.
Buying or short selling the underlying equity in Pre market to lock in gains from puts and calls, respectively.

GILD $71 breaking out above $70 resistance!

The hope of the world stock? Could it really blast off?

ROKU only down $3.83 in the $115's.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Exactly! Something that I've learned from you.
Buying or short selling the underlying equity in Pre market to lock in gains from puts and calls, respectively.

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On a predetermined portion. Holding the rest to see how far before a major volume surge.

And what you do then is check where things are at open and you can sell the shares for big gains many times and still own the PUTS or sell the Puts if still way down and you see a major v bottom on volume. Then you get to really create wealth.

So many variables.

Going to be real ugly today, but I think it's exactly what this market needs right now. Just a little reset...the run couldn't last forever. With the virus news ramping up and a candidate emerging for the Dems, I think it's only normal that we see a little pullback. Futures were down as much as 93 about 20 mins ago...my guess is an open down at least 60-65.

What are SPY puts going to open with this morning? Is it worth trying to jump into a few 325p? They're showing $.06 per but there's no way it starts there today.

S&P futures down 92

Hold on to your butts <gif>

I'm concerned that our SPXS positions are only up $1. Not much of a move with such a sell off. Generally we see a spike off lows in these hedge shares to $14-15 at a market bottom.

Is this telling us there is more downside risk from here?

I believe this is also due to Sanders running away with the nomination as well as the coronavirus.