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Houston..we have a problem....

7,280,038 Views | 28678 Replies | Last: 24 min ago by TxAg20
PeekingDuck
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I've only noticed it getting really squirrelly in the last year or so... that's not to say annual exit rates haven't always been a joke.
nu awlins ag
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Ag CPA said:

nu awlins ag said:

Huge drop in inventories of 6 million barrel vs. expectations of a 756,000 decrease. Some analysts are touting that the markets have largely rebalanced. Citigroup has forecast WTI at $54 a barrel and Brent at $58 in the 4th quarter. Good for the end of 2017 and going into 2018. There is still talk of extending the cuts through 2018...

The record 2mm bbls of daily exports spooked traders late in the session; that is an amazing number but makes since given the current spread with Brent. Should be interesting to see which way the market goes in coming days, just can't seem to hang on above $50.
True. Russia and Saudi are expected to agree on extending the production cuts through 2018 because of expected increases in US production.
IrishTxAggie
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I don't see the Saudis and Russians playing the cuts game too much longer. I just can't fathom a scenario where they sit back and cut their production while the US ramps theirs up and gains market share. Market share is after all what started this whole mess.
74OA
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ColinAggie said:

I don't see the Saudis and Russians playing the cuts game too much longer. I just can't fathom a scenario where they sit back and cut their production while the US ramps theirs up and gains market share. Market share is after all what started this whole mess.
Exactly, and in SA's case the situation is compounded by them spending down their foreign currency reserves in order to replace the lost energy revenue in their national budget.

Still wealthy, but.....
nu awlins ag
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If the EV market ticks up like they are saying, they may not have a choice....
Gordo14
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ColinAggie said:

I don't see the Saudis and Russians playing the cuts game too much longer. I just can't fathom a scenario where they sit back and cut their production while the US ramps theirs up and gains market share. Market share is after all what started this whole mess.


Well for one Saudi has a new oil minister than the one who made it about market share. Furthermore, with Saudi trying to IPO Saudi Aramco, higher oil prices is a much bigger deal (at least until that happens). Finally worldwide demand growth is really strong, much faster than supply growth here in the US. And that's not even considering all of the countries with mature development that have constantly declining production. I actually think it's likely that they cut next year (maybe not to the same extent) and demand fills the void eliminating the need for cuts.

Worldwide oil inventories were 340MM bbls of oil above the 5 year moving average to start the year and now they are only a little more than 170MM bbls above that average. I think it's pretty clear the market is healthier, partially due to those supply cuts... And if the goal was strictly market share, then they wouldn't have cut in the first place. I think the demand fundamentals are much stronger than they have been in the last 10 years, and it would be short-sighted and destabilizing for OPEC to kill the shale industry. I think they accept that everyone can win in the 50-60 maybe a little higher price range... And that is a healthy market such is good for the world. Mutual destruction or restricting supplies so that US production can take off are not in they're interest.
techno-ag
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Warren Buffett is buying almost half of Pilot Flying J truck stops. Big bet on continued need for diesel fuel and non-robotic trucks any time soon.

https://amp.usatoday.com/story/726378001/
TxAg20
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I saw that in WSJ a couple of days ago. Buffett was quoted saying something like "I'm willing to bet big money that Americans will be buying more goods and more goods will be moved by truck."

One of the comments was something like: "Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."
74OA
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US freight rail is well into a massive two decade-long investment to upgrade their lines and intermodal capacity. I think we'll see more and more long-haul freight shift to rail and trucking firms progressively relegated to deliveries of less than 500 miles.

Freight
74OA
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If you do a quick google search on the SA decision to cut prices a couple of years ago, you'll see a common theme stating it was primarily motivated by SA's desire to defend its market share from further encroachment by what was then inefficient, expensive US shale producers. The idea was to quickly drive US shale out of business by pricing them out of the market. As we've seen since, that plan backfired as it merely culled the US energy industry of its weak sisters and compelled the rest to become far more efficient. As a result, SA is today losing both revenue due to the price cuts and market share due to US energy becoming ever more competitive.

For Example
AgLA06
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TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.
gougler08
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AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.


Number 2 is the biggest blocker to me. There will have to be a ton of infrastructure added across the US if the electric car will become the number one vehicle. I don't see how that happens any time soon
Cepe
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I can't find it, and it may have been earlier in this thread, but there is an article that makes it is clear that Saudi has flooded the market multiple times over the years thinking they could put others out of business and increase their market share.

This goes back to the '70 and in each case that they tried it the ended up LOSING market share because of adjustments and efficiency by the market. Its clear by a simple search of Saudi market share that they are losing it this time too.

I'm not sure why they thought it would work this time, but my guess is that Iran coming back online has them rattled.
BMach
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Stand by on Iran, at least if Trump has anything to say about it.
The Original AG 76
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gougler08 said:

AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.


Number 2 is the biggest blocker to me. There will have to be a ton of infrastructure added across the US if the electric car will become the number one vehicle. I don't see how that happens any time soon
So many reasons. For those of us that keep our cars for 10+ years and over 100k miles I am extremely doubtful about the life of the batteries , NO history. Also where do you take the thing for the inevitable aches and pains we ALL see about 15 minutes after the warranty expires? Doubtful that Acme Garage and Car Wash can repair the Tesla as readily as it can the Chevy. Hell..where would you take it in College Station for warranty work ?
NOPE...not on the horizon AT ALL.
Ragoo
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The Original AG 76 said:

gougler08 said:

AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.


Number 2 is the biggest blocker to me. There will have to be a ton of infrastructure added across the US if the electric car will become the number one vehicle. I don't see how that happens any time soon
So many reasons. For those of us that keep our cars for 10+ years and over 100k miles I am extremely doubtful about the life of the batteries , NO history. Also where do you take the thing for the inevitable aches and pains we ALL see about 15 minutes after the warranty expires? Doubtful that Acme Garage and Car Wash can repair the Tesla as readily as it can the Chevy. Hell..where would you take it in College Station for warranty work ?
NOPE...not on the horizon AT ALL.
with a battery car you would have fewer mechanical parts, thus fewer headaches. Businesses would adapt. Service and repair stations would pop up everywhere if there was a significant demand. We are going to shift more and more to electric cars. Better warm up to the idea, it is happening.
Ragoo
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AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.
Agree about the dual engine. I rode in my friend's Volt this past weekend and it was amazing. Drove to BCS and bag on the charge. smooth as silk acceleration, no gears.
techno-ag
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Ragoo said:

The Original AG 76 said:

gougler08 said:

AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.


Number 2 is the biggest blocker to me. There will have to be a ton of infrastructure added across the US if the electric car will become the number one vehicle. I don't see how that happens any time soon
So many reasons. For those of us that keep our cars for 10+ years and over 100k miles I am extremely doubtful about the life of the batteries , NO history. Also where do you take the thing for the inevitable aches and pains we ALL see about 15 minutes after the warranty expires? Doubtful that Acme Garage and Car Wash can repair the Tesla as readily as it can the Chevy. Hell..where would you take it in College Station for warranty work ?
NOPE...not on the horizon AT ALL.
with a battery car you would have fewer mechanical parts, thus fewer headaches. Businesses would adapt. Service and repair stations would pop up everywhere if there was a significant demand. We are going to shift more and more to electric cars. Better warm up to the idea, it is happening.
I don't know it's happening as quickly as some think. Warren Buffett evidently thinks the same.
Ragoo
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AG
techno-ag said:

Ragoo said:

The Original AG 76 said:

gougler08 said:

AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.


Number 2 is the biggest blocker to me. There will have to be a ton of infrastructure added across the US if the electric car will become the number one vehicle. I don't see how that happens any time soon
So many reasons. For those of us that keep our cars for 10+ years and over 100k miles I am extremely doubtful about the life of the batteries , NO history. Also where do you take the thing for the inevitable aches and pains we ALL see about 15 minutes after the warranty expires? Doubtful that Acme Garage and Car Wash can repair the Tesla as readily as it can the Chevy. Hell..where would you take it in College Station for warranty work ?
NOPE...not on the horizon AT ALL.
with a battery car you would have fewer mechanical parts, thus fewer headaches. Businesses would adapt. Service and repair stations would pop up everywhere if there was a significant demand. We are going to shift more and more to electric cars. Better warm up to the idea, it is happening.
I don't know it's happening as quickly as some think. Warren Buffett evidently thinks the same.
Warren's comment is about the movement of goods, not people. On a commercial scale the Semi is not going away soon. He also sees our consumerism increasing and thus the need to move goods around the country.
John Francis Donaghy
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techno-ag said:

Ragoo said:

The Original AG 76 said:

gougler08 said:

AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.


Number 2 is the biggest blocker to me. There will have to be a ton of infrastructure added across the US if the electric car will become the number one vehicle. I don't see how that happens any time soon
So many reasons. For those of us that keep our cars for 10+ years and over 100k miles I am extremely doubtful about the life of the batteries , NO history. Also where do you take the thing for the inevitable aches and pains we ALL see about 15 minutes after the warranty expires? Doubtful that Acme Garage and Car Wash can repair the Tesla as readily as it can the Chevy. Hell..where would you take it in College Station for warranty work ?
NOPE...not on the horizon AT ALL.
with a battery car you would have fewer mechanical parts, thus fewer headaches. Businesses would adapt. Service and repair stations would pop up everywhere if there was a significant demand. We are going to shift more and more to electric cars. Better warm up to the idea, it is happening.
I don't know it's happening as quickly as some think. Warren Buffett evidently thinks the same.


Buffett invests in companies that show steady returns. All his investments in Pilot/Flying J truck stops shows is that Pilot/Flying J has a steady business that provides steady returns. Nothing says he can't sell it back off at some point in the future if that changes.
techno-ag
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AG
John Francis Donaghy said:

techno-ag said:

Ragoo said:

The Original AG 76 said:

gougler08 said:

AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.


Number 2 is the biggest blocker to me. There will have to be a ton of infrastructure added across the US if the electric car will become the number one vehicle. I don't see how that happens any time soon
So many reasons. For those of us that keep our cars for 10+ years and over 100k miles I am extremely doubtful about the life of the batteries , NO history. Also where do you take the thing for the inevitable aches and pains we ALL see about 15 minutes after the warranty expires? Doubtful that Acme Garage and Car Wash can repair the Tesla as readily as it can the Chevy. Hell..where would you take it in College Station for warranty work ?
NOPE...not on the horizon AT ALL.
with a battery car you would have fewer mechanical parts, thus fewer headaches. Businesses would adapt. Service and repair stations would pop up everywhere if there was a significant demand. We are going to shift more and more to electric cars. Better warm up to the idea, it is happening.
I don't know it's happening as quickly as some think. Warren Buffett evidently thinks the same.


Buffett invests in companies that show steady returns. All his investments in Pilot/Flying J truck stops shows is that Pilot/Flying J has a steady business that provides steady returns. Nothing says he can't sell it back off at some point in the future if that changes.
I'll have to look but there's ab agreement he can buy the other half in a few years. It's a pretty big bet on ICEs.
John Francis Donaghy
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techno-ag said:

John Francis Donaghy said:

techno-ag said:

Ragoo said:

The Original AG 76 said:

gougler08 said:

AgLA06 said:

TxAg20 said:

"Buffett should have consulted Elon Musk who is going to put 500K, no 300K, no 1K electric vehicles on the road next year."


Elon has made some cool stuff, but can you imagine what he could be if he wasn't limited by a liberal devotion that motors were the devil? If he was ever smart enough to offer a 4 cylinder LP engine or diesel engine in addition to the battery system in his cars he could actually accomplish his production goals.

I mean other than the silly omission that power plants still create the electricity for his cars, Tesla has promise. I'd be interested if they could improve the range and add the redundancy of a non electric engine or a true dual power electric / fuel engine to their current system.

In my mind there's a couple of things holding me back from buying one.

1) A lack of similar range to gas / diesel engine vehicles.
2) Lack of a comprehensive recharge station network as convenient as gas stations.
3) No redundancy of propulsion systems. Replacing the battery bank is rumored to be as expensive as buying a new car and we know how long a new cell phone lasts before seeing battery charges lasting less and less over their lifespan. A small conventional engine or LP engine could provide options.

But no. He'll continue to push the BS allusion of "green" oil and gas hating narrative at the expense of progress.


Number 2 is the biggest blocker to me. There will have to be a ton of infrastructure added across the US if the electric car will become the number one vehicle. I don't see how that happens any time soon
So many reasons. For those of us that keep our cars for 10+ years and over 100k miles I am extremely doubtful about the life of the batteries , NO history. Also where do you take the thing for the inevitable aches and pains we ALL see about 15 minutes after the warranty expires? Doubtful that Acme Garage and Car Wash can repair the Tesla as readily as it can the Chevy. Hell..where would you take it in College Station for warranty work ?
NOPE...not on the horizon AT ALL.
with a battery car you would have fewer mechanical parts, thus fewer headaches. Businesses would adapt. Service and repair stations would pop up everywhere if there was a significant demand. We are going to shift more and more to electric cars. Better warm up to the idea, it is happening.
I don't know it's happening as quickly as some think. Warren Buffett evidently thinks the same.


Buffett invests in companies that show steady returns. All his investments in Pilot/Flying J truck stops shows is that Pilot/Flying J has a steady business that provides steady returns. Nothing says he can't sell it back off at some point in the future if that changes.
I'll have to look but there's ab agreement he can buy the other half in a few years. It's a pretty big bet on ICEs.


Yeah, if I remember correctly, the deal won't be fully done until 2023, so it's a 5 year long transaction. Even then, I don't think anyone is predicting electric vehicles will fully take over within the next 10 to 15 years, it'll be more gradual than that. So 5 years of transitional profits, and another 5 to 10 years of steady profits after that is probably a pretty safe investment for the forseeable future.

But beyond that, I think the company will have some adapting to do if they want to stay profitable, I think our transportation systems will be starting to look very different by then based on the progress we aelre seeing with EV/battery and automation technology. It's good for rich people toys now, but in time rich people toy technology inevitably gets cheaper and more widely available.
Nagler
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AG
What's the electric vehicle approach to long distance driving? Are they going to expect every one to sit and wait while their batteries recharge?
techno-ag
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Nagler said:

What's the electric vehicle approach to long distance driving? Are they going to expect every one to sit and wait while their batteries recharge?
I just don't see it for long haul in this country in our lifetimes. Dense urban areas, yeah it's doable. Crossing the American continent and places like Africa with little to no infrastructure, not anytime soon. Others may differ. YMMV.
1876er
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Nagler said:

What's the electric vehicle approach to long distance driving? Are they going to expect every one to sit and wait while their batteries recharge?


Flying. Who drives more than 500 miles when flights are so cheap?
John Francis Donaghy
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Nagler said:

What's the electric vehicle approach to long distance driving? Are they going to expect every one to sit and wait while their batteries recharge?


Rapid charging technology is getting much better, and the most time consuming part of a charge is the last 10-20%. I don't think it would be out of the realm of possibility to be able to charge an EV to 80-90% in 30 min or less in the not-tpo-distent future.

That would require highway charging stations between metro areas that have lots of land to build charging lots on, and profit generating accomodations for people while they wait, like restaurants, snacks, restrooms, trinkets for sale, that kind of stuff.

So if you were an enterprising billionaire looking for an investment that was stable and profitable today, but had the infrastructure already in place to pivot to corner that particular market that is likely to emerge over the coming decades, what sort of business might you buy today?
LostInLA07
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AG
I'm not waiting 30 minutes to "fill up". Once I can re-charge to 80/90% in under 5 minutes I'll consider an electric car as my primary vehicle.
techno-ag
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LostInLA07 said:

I'm not waiting 30 minutes to "fill up". Once I can re-charge to 80/90% in under 5 minutes I'll consider an electric car as my primary vehicle.
Yup. It has to equivocate a pump fill up at a gas station, and be ubiquitous. Like gas stations are. Nobody is going to drive a couple hours, wait 30 minutes for a recharge, then drive some more only to wait another half hour. Not when they can top off their tank in 5 minutes or less.
AgLA06
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1876er said:

Nagler said:

What's the electric vehicle approach to long distance driving? Are they going to expect every one to sit and wait while their batteries recharge?


Flying. Who drives more than 500 miles when flights are so cheap?


Anyone with a family.

Two tanks of gas is a hellova lot cheaper than the cheapest flights. Getting small children and their car seat and their stroller and all their crap plus them through security and long waits is a nightmare.

Unless it's more than a thousand miles. Then flying is an option depending on cost.
AgLA06
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John Francis Donaghy said:

Nagler said:

What's the electric vehicle approach to long distance driving? Are they going to expect every one to sit and wait while their batteries recharge?


Rapid charging technology is getting much better, and the most time consuming part of a charge is the last 10-20%. I don't think it would be out of the realm of possibility to be able to charge an EV to 80-90% in 30 min or less in the not-tpo-distent future.

That would require highway charging stations between metro areas that have lots of land to build charging lots on, and profit generating accomodations for people while they wait, like restaurants, snacks, restrooms, trinkets for sale, that kind of stuff.

So if you were an enterprising billionaire looking for an investment that was stable and profitable today, but had the infrastructure already in place to pivot to corner that particular market that is likely to emerge over the coming decades, what sort of business might you buy today?


With wireless charging technology, I could see a continuous charging system on major highways using the existing light poles and scanners they have now. Add in whatever they have to scan the easy tags to figure out drive times.
GBMont3
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AG
I fully expect swappable batteries (not unlike propane tanks) at truck stops for the long haul trucking crowd. Vehicles must be designed for easy battery access of course and that's not the current way most passenger vehicles are going.
AggieOil
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74OA said:

If you do a quick google search on the SA decision to cut prices a couple of years ago, you'll see a common theme stating it was primarily motivated by SA's desire to defend its market share from further encroachment by what was then inefficient, expensive US shale producers. The idea was to quickly drive US shale out of business by pricing them out of the market. As we've seen since, that plan backfired as it merely culled the US energy industry of its weak sisters and compelled the rest to become far more efficient. As a result, SA is today losing both revenue due to the price cuts and market share due to US energy becoming ever more competitive.

For Example


#merica
agdaddy04
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You realize it's not like swapping a traditional car battery, right?
techno-ag
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John Francis Donaghy said:

agdaddy04 said:

You realize it's not like swapping a traditional car battery, right?


It very well could be 10 years from now. Lots of yall seem to be getting stuck on the tech that exists today. EVs aren't the answer today specifically because the tech isn't quite there yet, I don't anyone would argue that.

But think of the progress that has been made in the arena in the last decade, and there is a very real possibility that EVs will be the more practical option in another 10 years or so. A few years ago, EV range was limited to local use only and charges took 10+ hours, now Teslas can go hundreds of miles on a charge and the newest charging stations being inatalled in Europe today can hit 80% in about 15 minutes. Progress will continue to be made, and I'm a bit surprised that so many in the O&G industry on here seem so dead set on sticking their heads in the sand about a rapidly emerging technology that could severely reduce demand for one of their major products in the not-so-distent future.
Yeah the automotive industry as is, along with its infrastructure, has been in place over a hundred years. It's not going away any time soon.

Not to mention battery technology hasn't improved much. Despite all efforts we still haven't gotten anything much better than the 9 volt Energizer.

Yes, progress is being made. It's just not going to completely displace existing systems overnight, imo.
Ag CPA
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The 9 volt Energizer...
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