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Houston..we have a problem....

7,279,594 Views | 28677 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by Drillbit4
Engine10
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AG
Electric cars get all the hype, meanwhile Mazda is pressing forward with its compression tech. Conventional market not just gonna lay back and take it.

[link]https://www.google.com/amp/s/jalopnik.com/mazdas-upcoming-skyactive-x-compression-ignition-engine-1797643172/amp[/link]
Latigo
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John Francis Donaghy said:

agdaddy04 said:

You realize it's not like swapping a traditional car battery, right?


It very well could be 10 years from now. Lots of yall seem to be getting stuck on the tech that exists today. EVs aren't the answer today specifically because the tech isn't quite there yet, I don't anyone would argue that.

But think of the progress that has been made in the arena in the last decade, and there is a very real possibility that EVs will be the more practical option in another 10 years or so. A few years ago, EV range was limited to local use only and charges took 10+ hours, now Teslas can go hundreds of miles on a charge and the newest charging stations being inatalled in Europe today can hit 80% in about 15 minutes. Progress will continue to be made, and I'm a bit surprised that so many in the O&G industry on here seem so dead set on sticking their heads in the sand about a rapidly emerging technology that could severely reduce demand for one of their major products in the not-so-distent future.


Yawn. The same thing was said 40 years ago.
cone
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AG
you know what o&g is banking on?

human nature

gas is cheap and hassle free. electric cars aren't.
Cepe
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AG
Don't forget the nasty environmental damage from all those used up batteries. Even recycle facilities use some pretty nasty chemicals.
Buck Compton
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1 - storing potential energy in the form of electricity is one of mankind' most difficult problems. There's a reason batteries are so disgusting inside - that's what it takes. There's a lot of smart people working on it, but you shouldn't be expecting a major breakthrough. Maybe hope for one, but many advancements will be gradual.
2 - has anyone identified the load an entirely EV fleet would have on our power grid? CA and NY can't avoid brownouts or spot blackouts as it is. Now add 100 million or more vehicles drawing electricity at once. Until the hippies get on board with cheaper (and cleaner) forms of electricity generation such as nuclear, the infrastructure just won't support it. Not even to mention the logistics of a roadside charge.
3 - as mentioned, redundancy is key for widespread adoption.
4 - cost. Without subsidies they've yet to make an economically feasible vehicle at current prices
techno-ag
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AG
Ag CPA said:

The 9 volt Energizer...
Yup lithium ion is still state of the art after all these years.

Even Tesla's highly promoted new battery factory is going to make .... lithium ion batteries.
BiochemAg97
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AG
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/airline-plans-to-use-electric-airplanes-in-10-years-is-that-possible/

"Jet fuel has a specific energy of 12,000 watt-hours per kilogram, Clarke told Ars. For comparison, battery systems work out to around 200 watt-hours per kilogram. In other words, jet fuel is about 60 times as efficient for storing energy as batteries are. This is somewhat offset by the fact that electric motors are about three times more efficient than jet engines. But that still means that you can go a lot further with a kilogram of jet fuel than you can with a kilogram of batteries."
Gordo14
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GBMont3 said:

I fully expect swappable batteries (not unlike propane tanks) at truck stops for the long haul trucking crowd. Vehicles must be designed for easy battery access of course and that's not the current way most passenger vehicles are going.
Won't happen. There's a reason Tesla abandoned it after claiming a ton of extra EV credits for calling it a fast charging battery. Companies can't handle the warranty/reliability/depreciation issues of swapping batteries. They can't afford to give an old car a much newer battery via swaps and vice-versa.
Gordo14
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74OA said:

If you do a quick google search on the SA decision to cut prices a couple of years ago, you'll see a common theme stating it was primarily motivated by SA's desire to defend its market share from further encroachment by what was then inefficient, expensive US shale producers. The idea was to quickly drive US shale out of business by pricing them out of the market. As we've seen since, that plan backfired as it merely culled the US energy industry of its weak sisters and compelled the rest to become far more efficient. As a result, SA is today losing both revenue due to the price cuts and market share due to US energy becoming ever more competitive.

For Example
I'm well aware why they did it initially, but their strategy has fundamentally changed. Also market share is still not as important as price.... Especially with demand this strong. They can drop their cuts naturally over time at current prices without oversupplying the market
Diet Cokehead
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AG
SoupNazi2001 said:

Lots of oil price talk. What do you guys think of current natural gas prices. October is a historically bullish month. Think prices can break and hold above $3?
I'm curious on this as well. Just bought some UGAZ on Friday. Hoping for a short term spike.
fire09
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AG
techno-ag said:

Ag CPA said:

The 9 volt Energizer...
Yup lithium ion is still state of the art after all these years.

Even Tesla's highly promoted new battery factory is going to make .... lithium ion batteries.


And people wonder why we are still in Afghanistan....
The Original AG 76
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AG
fire09 said:

techno-ag said:

Ag CPA said:

The 9 volt Energizer...
Yup lithium ion is still state of the art after all these years.

Even Tesla's highly promoted new battery factory is going to make .... lithium ion batteries.


And people wonder why we are still in Afghanistan....
opium ? goats? not sure I connect the dots.
Poke_the_Bear
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AG
Lithium deposits
BlackGoldAg2011
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AG
AgLA06 said:

With wireless charging technology, I could see a continuous charging system on major highways using the existing light poles and scanners they have now. Add in whatever they have to scan the easy tags to figure out drive times.
The problem with this is that wireless charging uses induced magnetic fields to transfer energy. I can't even begin to imagine the magnetic field needed to charge a large number of moving vehicles. Granted, the movement of the vehicle could help that problem somewhat, but it still seems like that much induced magnetism is going to start seriously screwing with a lot of things in its vicinity.
BiochemAg97
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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

AgLA06 said:

With wireless charging technology, I could see a continuous charging system on major highways using the existing light poles and scanners they have now. Add in whatever they have to scan the easy tags to figure out drive times.
The problem with this is that wireless charging uses induced magnetic fields to transfer energy. I can't even begin to imagine the magnetic field needed to charge a large number of moving vehicles. Granted, the movement of the vehicle could help that problem somewhat, but it still seems like that much induced magnetism is going to start seriously screwing with a lot of things in its vicinity.


Also, it adds in another loss between the energy source (still
mostly fossil fuel) and the ultimate use.
PincheDriller
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AG
On another note. Thoughts on Exco Resources (XCO) and the recent 8-K's filed. Thoughts on where headed?
Comeby!
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AG
Drew down the borrowing base, paid out year end bonuses early, any minute now best I can tell. Probably used this all a short leverage in negotiations.
jbanda
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AG
That's not how this works OPEC

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/10/opec-calls-on-us-shale-oil-producers-to-accept-shared-responsibility.html
IrishTxAggie
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AG
jbanda said:

That's not how this works OPEC

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/10/opec-calls-on-us-shale-oil-producers-to-accept-shared-responsibility.html


Comeby!
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AG
Quote:

"We urge our friends, in the shale basins of North America to take this shared responsibility with all seriousness it deserves, as one of the key lessons learnt from the current unique supply-driven cycle," Barkindo said.

Oh now we're friends, mf'er?
techno-ag
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AG
Comeby! said:

"We urge our friends, in the shale basins of North America to take this shared responsibility with all seriousness it deserves, as one of the key lessons learnt from the current unique supply-driven cycle," Barkindo said.

They should have thought about that before trying to drive shale producers out of business.
TxAg20
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If all U.S. operators agreed to cut production by some percentage, I wouldn't be opposed to cutting production. I'm guessing there are laws in the U.S. against that though.
nu awlins ag
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techno-ag said:

Comeby! said:

"We urge our friends, in the shale basins of North America to take this shared responsibility with all seriousness it deserves, as one of the key lessons learnt from the current unique supply-driven cycle," Barkindo said.

They should have thought about that before trying to drive shale producers out of business.
Exactly. They need higher prices more than the US, as their whole economy basically is tied to oil revenues.
agdaddy04
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TxAg20 said:

If all U.S. operators agreed to cut production by some percentage, I wouldn't be opposed to cutting production. I'm guessing there are laws in the U.S. against that though.

I'd think the way lease contracts are written this wouldn't be allowe? Plus anti-trust laws?
nu awlins ag
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AG
Would be a nightmare.....


The only way to restrict production would be to lay down rigs and then you still have agreements you have to deal with.
TxAg20
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It's not hard to shut in existing wells for a few day each month. There are wells that you wouldn't want to shut it such as recently completed wells that you're trying to recover load water from, but shutting in a lot of mature production shouldn't be an issue. Many of us would sacrifice production of $50 oil today for a near-term shot at producing those same barrels for $70.

Yes, people have rig contracts and they would keep drilling. Rig count isn't the problem. It's oil inventories.
IrishTxAggie
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AG
The more that OPEC cuts, the more that the US will produce. $50 is profitable and US companies aren't going to wait on the sidelines to prop the prices up for the OPEC members. OPEC has lost their global control over the oil market and now they're grasping at straws in an attempt to be save themselves.

Side note:
Isn't a good portion of the gulf offline right now because of Nate?
nu awlins ag
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9, most are up and running. Most of the platforms/production are west of the mouth of the Mississippi. I believe the storm hit the Mississippi/Bama border.


Edit: I stand corrected. A report fixing another report came out stating that offshore production is still shut-in/offline, roughly 85% or 1.49 million barrels. I find that number a little high, but it is what the report says.
Comeby!
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TxAg20 said:

It's not hard to shut in existing wells for a few day each month. There are wells that you wouldn't want to shut it such as recently completed wells that you're trying to recover load water from, but shutting in a lot of mature production shouldn't be an issue. Many of us would sacrifice production of $50 oil today for a near-term shot at producing those same barrels for $70.

Yes, people have rig contracts and they would keep drilling. Rig count isn't the problem. It's oil inventories.

I don't know of any E&P executives that would be ok with shutting in wells or sacrificing today's production.
Cepe
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Traditional wells can be shut in easier than a shale well. You run the risk of ruining the well completion characteristics of a shale well by cycling them. The better operators only shut in a shale well when it is absolutely necessary.
Gordo14
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Anti-collusion laws make it so this hypothetical won't happen. An oil company could stop producing 1 day a month on their own... However, they will quickly realize that has no impact on oil price, so all you are doing is losing a day's worth of revenue every month.
nu awlins ag
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Agree with Comeby. Execs aren't prone to shutting anything in. It's akin to shutting off water while fighting a fire. I could see a field of stripper wells being shut in, but if that is your production or most of it, then no. Shutting in offshore wells is a lot easier than land based and this is only done for storms and some yearly facility work.
Joseph Parrish
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AG
Yeah, I don't think my boss would take it well if I told him we needed to shut in wells to raise oil prices. Lol.
Bismarck
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AG
PincheDriller said:

On another note. Thoughts on Exco Resources (XCO) and the recent 8-K's filed. Thoughts on where headed?


Very similar moves to Linn before it filed for bankruptcy. Kirkland advised Linn as well.

jbanda
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AG
Aren't all the OPEC members state oil companies? They can make decisions as such. By definition there is no state oil company here and any price fixing between private companies would count as collusion.
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