US also increased supply. All of these changes led to a better market balance than anyone expected.
Houston..we have a problem....
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Last: 2 hrs ago by nosoupforyou
Yeah it wasn't near as bad as all the doom and gloomers said it would be.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
I have been told many times that $80-90, call it $85 is the sweet spot where O&G stays functionally profitable and employment maintains steady, and market gas prices aren't insane. When we approach $70 or less, O&G struggles.
fortunately, that has largely been the case. but not intentionally.
techno-ag said:
Yeah it wasn't near as bad as all the doom and gloomers said it would be.
I think you are way underestimating just how violent and extreme the supply shock has been worldwide. I also don't think we're necessarily out of the woods yet given how deep the global inventory drop has been.
The market only barely stretched to this point because Russia had a massive amount of floating barrels and every SPR in the world went to max draws. But we're at the point now where logistically getting boats in and out of the Strait is still necessary in very short order to keep things going. We're only here because we've undermined our own strategic geopolitical interests every step of the way. At this point Middle East crude needs a permanent much higher risk premium and SPRs around the world are likely to be strong bids in the market for the next 5+ years.
I'd want to look at that $85 sweet spot in both real and nominal terms, it's certainly not a constant "truth" for the industry. $85 in 1990 is $213 today, in 2008 dollars it would be $130 today. I think you actually have to look at that number running backwards and not casting it forward. Shale collapsed the marginal cost of production in real terms.
I think crude price is directionally pointed down and not up in real terms and US production at large doesn't care as much as we think. Pure oil play producers will care first. LNG/CNG demand is increasing and feedstock choices are more frequently present between gas and crude than they have been in the past. Co-producers have a lot of room for profit even below $85 WTI.
Oil producers who need $75 to live well and don't get anything for their gas will be the ones who hurt first.
Waha vs Henry Hub is the story..same gas molecules with large pricing gap. Location and takeaway capacity tells you if your gas is an asset or a liability. Stranded gas oil plays will cling much tighter to the $85 comfort narrative. The co-producer with takeaway capacity for gas can shrug it off as we drop below that threshold.
I think crude price is directionally pointed down and not up in real terms and US production at large doesn't care as much as we think. Pure oil play producers will care first. LNG/CNG demand is increasing and feedstock choices are more frequently present between gas and crude than they have been in the past. Co-producers have a lot of room for profit even below $85 WTI.
Oil producers who need $75 to live well and don't get anything for their gas will be the ones who hurt first.
Waha vs Henry Hub is the story..same gas molecules with large pricing gap. Location and takeaway capacity tells you if your gas is an asset or a liability. Stranded gas oil plays will cling much tighter to the $85 comfort narrative. The co-producer with takeaway capacity for gas can shrug it off as we drop below that threshold.
Gordo14 said:techno-ag said:
Yeah it wasn't near as bad as all the doom and gloomers said it would be.
I think you are way underestimating just how violent and extreme the supply shock has been worldwide. I also don't think we're necessarily out of the woods yet given how deep the global inventory drop has been.
I think a lot of people on here have been making the point that supply especially with the Chi-coms, and overland supply routes in the ME have been a lot more resilient and flexible than most people realized.
Quote:
The market only barely stretched to this point because Russia had a massive amount of floating barrels and every SPR in the world went to max draws. But we're at the point now where logistically getting boats in and out of the Strait is still necessary in very short order to keep things going.
Looks like that's what's happening.
Quote:
We're only here because we've undermined our own strategic geopolitical interests every step of the way. At this point Middle East crude needs a permanent much higher risk premium and SPRs around the world are likely to be strong bids in the market for the next 5+ years.
Elections have consequences and past administrations have either kowtowed to the Iranians or ignored them. Trump decided to do something about it. If it keeps them from getting a nuke for a while longer (hopefully indefinitely), the world is in a better place.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
I've made it through several other 'opportunities', but today I got the axe. My project got canceled and almost everyone (90% or so) got cut loose.
Anyone looking for a senior Process Engineer with 15+ years experience in O&G and chemicals?
~egon
Anyone looking for a senior Process Engineer with 15+ years experience in O&G and chemicals?
~egon
Dang man, I'm sorry to hear that
What's your email?
Upstream?
interested in NGL fractionation optimization? PM we can chat.Dr. Doctor said:
I've made it through several other 'opportunities', but today I got the axe. My project got canceled and almost everyone (90% or so) got cut loose.
Anyone looking for a senior Process Engineer with 15+ years experience in O&G and chemicals?
~egon
my non-identifying email is this:
sj_pyro@hotmail.com
Interested in all sort of stuff. Been doing design/commissioning/operations for LNG, NH3, polymers and small bits of refining. Mostly downstream, but have worked on some early work upstream stuff (consulting and such).
Thanks!
~egon
sj_pyro@hotmail.com
Interested in all sort of stuff. Been doing design/commissioning/operations for LNG, NH3, polymers and small bits of refining. Mostly downstream, but have worked on some early work upstream stuff (consulting and such).
Thanks!
~egon
Email sent.
I will let you know if I hear anything. We do some consulting in that area and are always looking for someone in that realm.
Baker Hughes closing a local manufacturing center
https://www.khou.com/article/money/business/houston-business-journal/baker-hughes-closing-facility-layoffs/285-1f28062d-0fc5-49da-998c-c1fe1d9eb1cc
https://www.khou.com/article/money/business/houston-business-journal/baker-hughes-closing-facility-layoffs/285-1f28062d-0fc5-49da-998c-c1fe1d9eb1cc
Enverus buys PDS
Enverus announced the acquisition of four major exchange platforms from PDS Energy Information, expanding the energy software as a service giant's reach from commercial workflows to operational data flows driving completions, well data, production and water logistics.
Under the deal, Enverus takes ownership of the platforms Frac Interference Exchange, Well Data Exchange, Production Data Exchange and AquaTrade.
Anyone surprised by this? What impact does it have?
https://www.hartenergy.com/upstream/he-enverus-upstream-platforms-ai-pds/?utm_source=hart-energy-daily-wrap-up&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20260701
Enverus announced the acquisition of four major exchange platforms from PDS Energy Information, expanding the energy software as a service giant's reach from commercial workflows to operational data flows driving completions, well data, production and water logistics.
Under the deal, Enverus takes ownership of the platforms Frac Interference Exchange, Well Data Exchange, Production Data Exchange and AquaTrade.
Anyone surprised by this? What impact does it have?
https://www.hartenergy.com/upstream/he-enverus-upstream-platforms-ai-pds/?utm_source=hart-energy-daily-wrap-up&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20260701
Listening to some fellas talk about a fairly serious lack of sour crude for medium distillates such as diesel/jet diesel. We're pulling from the SPR to keep prices leveled out but, we're about 60 days supply until we begin to see a fairly rough economic situation. Anyone here keeping an eye on this issue?
I was just looking at electricity plans and see that the price has dropped quite a bit since this time last year. I don't follow this industry, but I'm curious to hear if anything of note has happened to cause this (beyond "supply is up" or "demand is down").
We've gone from 0 to 14GW of grid level battery storage in the last 5 years. Those batteries are eating the 6pm - 8pm net-peaks that typically prints the highest ERCOT demand level pricing. Most of the legacy fixed rate plans had to consider the large spike events and supply disruptions as more frequent and severe prior to the battery response...so now the price spikes they are pricing in are lesser and you are just getting a forward contract rate with a smaller scarcity risk premium.
Also, we have near infinite nat gas.
Also, we have near infinite nat gas.
Sims said:
We've gone from 0 to 14GW of grid level battery storage in the last 5 years. Those batteries are eating the 6pm - 8pm net-peaks that typically prints the highest ERCOT demand level pricing. Most of the legacy fixed rate plans had to consider the large spike events and supply disruptions as more frequent and severe prior to the battery response...so now the price spikes they are pricing in are lesser and you are just getting a forward contract rate with a smaller scarcity risk premium.
Also, we have near infinite nat gas.
So, good time to re shop electricity providers in North Texas? Or not yet?
Boat Shoes said:Sims said:
We've gone from 0 to 14GW of grid level battery storage in the last 5 years. Those batteries are eating the 6pm - 8pm net-peaks that typically prints the highest ERCOT demand level pricing. Most of the legacy fixed rate plans had to consider the large spike events and supply disruptions as more frequent and severe prior to the battery response...so now the price spikes they are pricing in are lesser and you are just getting a forward contract rate with a smaller scarcity risk premium.
Also, we have near infinite nat gas.
So, good time to re shop electricity providers in North Texas? Or not yet?
Not sure since there a lot of macro issues I'm not up to speed with. Generally though, the battery component just de-risks the whole system to some degree. Lower highs, higher lows - so to speak. Batteries buy the solar during the day which picks prices up then sells it back once the solar drops off and takes the highs down with it.
ERCOTs issue on one hand is electrical supply but the constraint is electrical supply AT THE RIGHT TIME.
Having unused reserve power in the grid when you don't need it is just as expensive as not having the power in the grid when you need it. The batteries solve the "how fast can you respond with reserve power" problem so that you don't have to as actively spin up expensive backup generation in peak times.
Good answer. Thank you.
Are you perhaps in this business, or do you just know a lot about it?
My family is in the midst of negotiating on a property for a solar lease. Recently, the company came to us with a proposal to build a BESS on a small portion of it immediately and hold off on the solar portion until improvements to the grid were made to accommodate the new inputs. We are trying to get a crash course in BESS leases in the interim. Interesting stuff.
My family is in the midst of negotiating on a property for a solar lease. Recently, the company came to us with a proposal to build a BESS on a small portion of it immediately and hold off on the solar portion until improvements to the grid were made to accommodate the new inputs. We are trying to get a crash course in BESS leases in the interim. Interesting stuff.
Sorry for the slow response. Took some time off.
I'm not in the business. I just pay attention to it because it moves things I do have money in.
Batteries and solar are pretty different animals on a per acre basis, so I'd be careful about letting anyone comp one off the other. The battery is a small footprint doing a lot of work. I'd also want to know what "hold off on solar until the grid improves" actually obligates them to do versus what it just gives them the option to do whenever they feel like it. That's a lawyer question though...and there are guys out there who do nothing but these leases.
I'm not in the business. I just pay attention to it because it moves things I do have money in.
Batteries and solar are pretty different animals on a per acre basis, so I'd be careful about letting anyone comp one off the other. The battery is a small footprint doing a lot of work. I'd also want to know what "hold off on solar until the grid improves" actually obligates them to do versus what it just gives them the option to do whenever they feel like it. That's a lawyer question though...and there are guys out there who do nothing but these leases.
Thanks. They did not feel as if there was currently enough capacity to tie into the lines with the amount of solar they wanted to build out on the property. They have already sunk a fair bit of money into the feasibility studies, so I think they are being honest about this.
They did feel that BESS would be economical immediately. They understand, and we understand, that BESS will bring a better per acre price than solar will bring in. Lot of money to be made by lawyers going back and forth on the contract we already have in place, I am sure.
They did feel that BESS would be economical immediately. They understand, and we understand, that BESS will bring a better per acre price than solar will bring in. Lot of money to be made by lawyers going back and forth on the contract we already have in place, I am sure.
It appears that Magnolia buying out Wildhorse is a done deal. Huge footprint in Giddings Field.
Is there anybody or any angle that Enverus hasn't bought out a competitor? Their appetite and war chest staggers me.
B3
After nearly 13 years between two massive corporations, I believe it is time to jump to a small operator. Family wants to stay in Houston, so I am looking to plug in with a small, entrepreneurial operator, ideally somewhere I can wear multiple hats rather than a narrow lane in a large org. Open to reservoir & BD roles but have a number of years of ops experience. Happy to share more details or a resume via email. I appreciate any leads or introductions. dallasag12ta at gmail.
Also if anyone thinks this is a bad idea please say so. I am just tired of the specialization no matter what role I choose here, and I feel that if I stay longer, the specialization will make me less marketable to smaller outfits.
Also if anyone thinks this is a bad idea please say so. I am just tired of the specialization no matter what role I choose here, and I feel that if I stay longer, the specialization will make me less marketable to smaller outfits.
I know quite a few - will email you.
Ensign is one that just closed their asset and hiring a lot
Ensign is one that just closed their asset and hiring a lot
If you're in a position to cut any large POs to ASME vessel fabricators before you go, let me know
Wrong thread.
I think the natural progression is smaller, where you wear multiple hats and have a seat at the table in major decisions. It's very hard to go back. That being said, I'd hold on to what you got until you find a new home. Job market is tough right now.
true -A&D it has been slow in 2026 but A&D is about to pick up steam apparently
Enverus expects a much busier second half of 2026 as oil prices reset at higher levels, motivating private operators to bring assets to market, while public buyers enter the period with improved free-cash-flow profiles and stronger equity currency.
Who are the key acquisition targets these days?
Enverus expects a much busier second half of 2026 as oil prices reset at higher levels, motivating private operators to bring assets to market, while public buyers enter the period with improved free-cash-flow profiles and stronger equity currency.
Who are the key acquisition targets these days?
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