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Houston..we have a problem....

7,066,649 Views | 28383 Replies | Last: 15 hrs ago by techno-ag
Dale Earnhardts Stache
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AG
quote:
I guess it's time to bring this up again:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12-overflow/20141224_HYEP.jpg


Still Awesome!
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Dirt 05
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US Crude production plateaued in March/April and began to decline in May per these EIA numbers http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm
Ag2012
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Remove the "." from the end of your link
LostInLA07
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Brent falls below $50 a barrel for the first time since Jan. 30.
BustUpAChiffarobe
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TAKE THAT YOU SAUDI PIECES OF HORSE CRAP!
pfo
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If Iran would just drop their first nuclear bomb on Saudi instead of Israel or us then BOOM, problem solved! Dan Scott would you please talk to some of your people over there? Chop chop! Be a team player, this is your time to shine!
dahouse
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Wow, how low will it go today? Down almost 4%
Cody
Fightin Texas Aggie c/o 04
Cepe
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EIA overestimating NA production

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EIA-Capitulates-Under-Cover-Of-Darkness.html

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Top-6-Myths-Driving-Oil-Prices-Down.html
Drillbit4
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WTI $45.30

Linn Energy down 50% in just the last 3 days.
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Pahdz
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Linn Energy is a goner. One thing about the MLP business model is it is dependent on raising capital and performing acquisitions to increase the dividend. They cut the dividend to 0 and they are shut out of the capital markets now. Good night.
all while their new building here in OKC sits not even half finished, just concrete tilt walls standing there
Ag92NGranbury
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quote:
quote:
Linn Energy is a goner. One thing about the MLP business model is it is dependent on raising capital and performing acquisitions to increase the dividend. They cut the dividend to 0 and they are shut out of the capital markets now. Good night.
all while their new building here in OKC sits not even half finished, just concrete tilt walls standing there


Luke 14:28
merc
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I've been following this thread not out of investment ideas but as a employee of a small o&g service company. It's been rough for awhile now and I'm always just wondering how much more it can take. I find the information and speculation interesting. Also, very convenient since I'm a texags junky.
Furlock Bones
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If you state it matter of factory enough, someone might buy it.

They may eventually be a goner but it won't make your faulty assertions correct.
Comeby!
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quote:
quote:
Linn Energy is a goner. One thing about the MLP business model is it is dependent on raising capital and performing acquisitions to increase the dividend. They cut the dividend to 0 and they are shut out of the capital markets now. Good night.
all while their new building here in OKC sits not even half finished, just concrete tilt walls standing there


And to think, they beat us out by a few million on a $B bid last year.
Cyp011
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They are not shut out in the capital markets....
pfo
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quote:
quote:
quote:
Linn Energy is a goner. One thing about the MLP business model is it is dependent on raising capital and performing acquisitions to increase the dividend. They cut the dividend to 0 and they are shut out of the capital markets now. Good night.
all while their new building here in OKC sits not even half finished, just concrete tilt walls standing there


And to think, they beat us out by a few million on a $B bid last year.


Comeby when Linn goes under you will probably get another bite at that same apple and might win the bid for less.
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Furlock Bones
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Like I said, they may end up in the drain but it won't make you right.
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Furlock Bones
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So you think they are going down when? 6-12 months? If so, it means you've actually done zero analysis and are just trying to sound important. But, that seems to be your SOP on any and all boards.
Ridge14
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Dan Scott
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Iran oil minister says that will be able to produce an additional 1M barrels within a month of the sanctions being lifted. Indias oil minister is going to Iran this week. It's look they're trying to make a deal.
chrisrrtx
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Anyone have insight into the Halliburton baker merger? Seems shaky
Furlock Bones
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Iran is full of caca. That will be producing between 5-750k bbl/day. Whether that is significant to you or not, that's your call. It's a long way from a real dent.
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Furlock Bones
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Perfect. You've shown your ass. You have literally done zero analysis of your own.

But hey that's exactly what I thought based on your postings in other threads.


Oh and PS the company may yet end up on the cutting floor. It still doesn't mean you have any idea what you are talking about.
rcannaday
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Not meant to derail, but I thought this article was interesting in terms of Solar Energy Cost and based on what is going on in ERCOT, and other commodity markets, makes me think the 30 yr bull commodity market, is a complete reversal. What I find even more interesting is how sustained low oil prices, have yet to to be the boom of the US manufacturing / economy as some pundits were all cheering about. I don't think they realized that previous quarters GDP, was in large part due to the boom in O&G.

Ryan34
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quote:
Perfect. You've shown your ass. You have literally done zero analysis of your own.

But hey that's exactly what I thought based on your postings in other threads.


Oh and PS the company may yet end up on the cutting floor. It still doesn't mean you have any idea what you are talking about.

So have you done analysis? If so, I'd find it interesting.
Cyp011
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For sanity purposes please do not compare an Oil & Gas company with real assets to a financial institution dependent on trade credit/liquidity to prove a point.

Generally, before regurgitating information it may be prudent to understand how oil and gas capital structures work vs the banking and commodity trading firms. The move LINN and many other oil and gas firms are making will be extremely beneficial to long term prospects at the detriment of equity investors. That is what you're seeing from companies such as Oasis, LINN down the line where an equity position is now a pure play on the crude recovery. The shorts are in the market as once you factor in the unsecured notes there is very little meat on the bone for equity.

The rule of thumb is that companies solely dependent on liquidity to finance trade flows are at risk when a rumor becomes reality. Say for example Noble right now and how they are being treated (trading firm not operator).

Furlock Bones
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Yes I have. It's actually pretty elementary. Linn is on a 14-18 month timeline that is commodity dependent. They have made great moves to keep liquidity flowing internally and externally.

What jake2011 is espousing is not based in reality only what he read.
Furlock Bones
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Well said.
Goose06
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Jake is generally correct about traditional mlp's. When your stock price is down and you aren't able to raise capital at a reasonable yield, you no longer have the ability to do accretive acquisitions or projects. Then as hedges roll off and cash flows decline with a fixed distribution the mlp is ****ed. I am not familiar with Linns capital structure to speak intelligently about them. What is their minimum distribution? What is the distributable cash flow per unit? How will DCF change as hedges roll off? How much borrowing capacity do they have after their next redetermination? What covenant are they most likely to trip and what can they do to cure a default, if anything?

If you can't answer all of those questions and then a list of follow up questions, my guess is you don't know what you are talking about. I worked in oil and gas restructuring from 2009 to 2011 and I work for an MLP so yes, I know what I'm talking about.
Furlock Bones
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Then you would know that if management thought it was a death spiral, they would in fact not cut distribution to zero and take out as much value as they could in distributions.

We all know cutting distributions to Zero in an MLP has far reaching consequences beyond just th immediately numbers. But it is the right move.

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