at 16k, I might pull out most of my 401k into stable value funds, watch it fall back to 14k, and then get back in

/not a professional investor

Best you can do is predict red/green for each day and hope for the best. Or commit to DCA'ing over the long haul.

I've tried both, and failed miserably.

Forgive my ignorance - DCA?

Dollar Cost Averaging

dollar cost averaging

I pulled out of shorts today with a small profit. Eating crow, and waiting to see where it goes.

Any predictions on market reaction to FOMC minutes being released?

Futures up 1%.

Bernanke with dovish comments last night. The fed is the market!

I bought CORN this morning. Only thing I'm watching that doesn't scare the hell out of me.

so what you're saying is an outside intity controls the market vs. the fundamentals? Gee sounds like gambling to me. It would be interesting to see if the only thing that was allowed is buying stock. No shorting. No margins. No options. Just buying a company if you beleived in the fundamentals.

I feel like the market movers/makers/manipulators are needing a big RED day soon. My guess is today or tomorrow.

I feel the opposite. I think it's gonna be modest gains until around September then all hell is gonna break loose post Ramadan.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

Definition of DCA

It's all going to depend on the Fed. If news continues to be mediocre, then the markets will keep counting on the Fed money coming in. If the Fed starts dropping stronger hints they believe the economy is stabilized, or that their policies can't be continued, then the markets may ease back. We've bounced off the 1650-1700 mark for a while now, with a couple of false start corrections. It would only take the Fed or some bad news overseas to trip off a more substantial correction, 5% or more. Until that happens, we'll grind out a few points north or south of that same area. 1700? Don't know. Could happen.

It is much more certain that the market will correct to reach a new equilibrium if the Fed dials down QE.

quote:

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at 16k, I might pull out most of my 401k into stable value funds, watch it fall back to 14k, and then get back in

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I would just average in like the other said. ofcourse unless you are retiring within the next few years. You can't predict what the market is going to do.

We were wrong yet again.

quote:

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tx4guns
posted 9:57a, 07/18/13



I feel the opposite. I think it's gonna be modest gains until around September then all hell is gonna break loose post Ramadan.

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I agree with this sentiment, but I also think a big down day is coming. Or maybe not.

To infinity and beyond!

So MSFT and GOOG are seeing pretty big dips this morning, anyone picking some up or adding to a position?

Bump...

Anyone think any big swings are coming?

I'm 100% equities right now on my retirement stuff (only 28 so I have a very long horizon). However, I'm thinking of pulling 20-30% of the portfolio out next week in case a correction ensues and to lock in this 30%+ LTM run.

I use Vanguard, though, and my question would be what should I move the funds into if I wanted to wait out a correction before getting back in long on equities for the long-term.

TIPS?
Short or medium term Treasuries?
Are Precious Metal equities at a bottom already that shouldn't get much worse?
Simply cash? Money market yields are worthless but I guess the point in waiting out a correction is just to keep value until you can get back in.

Thoughts?

Seems like cash would be a good option. Other securities are just as volatile. And with the way the markets are manipulated, the traditional negative correlation of other securities might not hold true.

Of course, I thought the correction was going to start 20% ago, and on my watch list, the only stock that is losing money is the one I own.

I'm 100% leveraged in DDM, TQQQ, and TNA right now. I'll be looking for VIX to head back above 16 and/or the FED pulling back.

If the market is heading down, I'll be riding that train on bearish leveraged ETFs.

Also, I hope to have my account transferred in the next few weeks to sell covered options.

[This message has been edited by Gator2_01 (edited 8/3/2013 4:46p).]

Chart the MA 30, MACD (8, 17, 9), and Slow Stochastic for SPY to give you an early heads up. I've been watching that.

Keeping my eye on it. The next two months will be interesting to say the least

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/08/04/why-are-americas-great-value-managers-hoarding-cash/

I think we are getting close to a short term top. So for you guys who have wanted to be a bear, I see an opportunity on the horizon. I will post here the day I go short.

JeffHamiliton possibly getting short? Time to pay attention again

So if/when you think we've peaked what's the play and how will you go about it (if you're putting money in some index short fund do you start with trailing buys and if so how much above current price, or if you short SPY what is the thought process on when to get in/out)?

Interested to listen to ideas of the more experienced investors.