I love how this gets bumped with every pullback.

It's supposed to be at infinity already.

Keep coming down plz

kthx

If the market drops another 30-40% from here, like Marc Faber predicts, it will almost be down to where it was when this thread was started a little over a year ago and at which time Marc Faber predicted a market drop of 30-40%! The Market Timers Hall of Fame still has zero inductees!

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Marc Faber like Doug kass called top in 07 and bottom in 09, they can afford to be wrong for a long time and still be doing infinitely better than someone who was fully invested in 07 and just rode it out

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Marc Faber is a smart guy but Marc Faber didn't sell out in 2007 and go full back in stocks in 2009. He advised his investors to stay heavily in gold which went down with the rest of the market from 2007-2009. He still has his investors heavily in gold (I have 2 gold miners in my portfolio based on his advice). My portfolio which was fully invested during the 2007 top, fulling invested at the bottom, fully invested during the 3 fold up move and fully invested today is up 25% from the 2007 market top. Anybody I personally know who made serious money in stocks did so buying and holding great dividend paying companies in great businesses and holding them forever. Could someone have done better if they sold and then shorted the market at the top, bought at the bottom and then sold at the next market top. Sure but that person doesn't exist and never will.

Plenty of people best the market. To think the only way to make money is buying and never selling is foolish. Dividends of 3-5% don't accomplish much when the stock loses 40-50%.

I'm definitely not one of those people though. I don't have the smarts or stomach (or massive wealth) to take the risk.

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You are wrong. Those people do exist they just aren't posting about it on a texags forum. People like Marc Faber have a different level of wealth and don't invest like the masses do. Being in asset management I have met many of wealthy people who have timed tops and bottoms in the market within 10 percent. That is all you really need to do.

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I am one of "those people" and I do post on Texags to try and help young Aggies. But the reason more of we who "have done it big time" don't post is we are told we are wrong by someone who has been investing 3 years. Jake, winning an argument and winning are two very different things. Best of luck to you and all Aggies. Hopefully your posts will retire me from wasting my time on this forum.

While I think the value of this market is a joke, we won't see a major drop until some of the lead dogs in this market start warning of future earnings

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If the market drops another 30-40% from here, like Marc Faber predicts, it will almost be down to where it was when this thread was started a little over a year ago and at which time Marc Faber predicted a market drop of 30-40%! The Market Timers Hall of Fame still has zero inductees!

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I appreciated this post pfo. So please stick around some more.

Jake has a CFA so he can guarantee superior performance.

Oh come on. That's the oldest Ethics question in the book. You have to know I'm joking on that one!

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I would much rather have a 7% return with limited volatility than a 10% return with crazy volatility.

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Depending on the time horizon the choice may be different I guess. Mix the two and get 8.5% return with medium volatility.

until I'm ~7 years away from retirement, I could not care less about volatility.....

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I would much rather have a 7% return with limited volatility than a 10% return with crazy volatility.

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Depending on the time horizon the choice may be different I guess. Mix the two and get 8.5% return with medium volatility.

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I'll take the extra 3% and not worry about what it did from T=0 and T=1yr.

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No guarantees by any means. I am wrong quite a bit. The key is to recognize when you are wrong quickly and not to let losses get away from you. Most professionals focus way more on managing risk and volatility while those with less experience just chase returns and don't focus as much on risk. I would much rather have a 7% return with limited volatility than a 10% return with crazy volatility.

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Get out of here with your Sharpe ratio nonsense.

pfo,

I fall more into your camp. I haven't found many that time it well for longer periods of time (10yrs). I use mostly mutual funds for myself. The managers I choose are primarily buy and hold. When I compare them to someone who times things, they may not win over a 3yr, but do over 5 and 10. If I could just know which timer was going to get it right for 3 yrs and then move to another for 3 yrs, then I would be set.

The most successful people I have found with verifiable track records tend to have low turnover. That doesn't mean buy and ignore. It means buy and hold until the reasons why you bought it are no longer there.

Oh, and I don't think this pullback will be very large nor will it last long. That is my opinion and it was easier to make after Friday's ISM and labor report.

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pfo,

I fall more into your camp. I haven't found many that time it well for longer periods of time (10yrs). I use mostly mutual funds for myself. The managers I choose are primarily buy and hold. When I compare them to someone who times things, they may not win over a 3yr, but do over 5 and 10. If I could just know which timer was going to get it right for 3 yrs and then move to another for 3 yrs, then I would be set.

The most successful people I have found with verifiable track records tend to have low turnover. That doesn't mean buy and ignore. It means buy and hold until the reasons why you bought it are no longer there.

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Harkrider:

Another huge advantage of buy and hold is the enormous effect of not paying taxes on unrealized gains. Both short term and long term gains that are realized result in tax paid thus diminishing the amount of money available for the next purchase. So if you sell a winner then you will have 20-40% less investable cash to buy the next stock. So you better be real confident in your strategy because you are handicapping yourself in a very big way. Stocks that are winners should be held and added to. It's the losers that should be sold. Peter Lynch once said "I don't know which way the next 1,000 points in the Dow will go but the next 6,000 points are up". He said that with the Dow at about 6,000. Finally I was reviewing my 85 year old mothers portfolio. Her basis in Phizer 30 cents, Merek 50 cents, Chevron, Budweiser, Clorox all are nothing. Her quarterly dividends on many of her stocks is greater than her basis in each share! Wow! She never paid one dime in taxes on unrealized gains, 100% of her money worked for her night and day and when she dies she gets a stepped up basis. Mom did something else Peter Lynch recommends which is buying stock in companies whose products you love!

ETA on when Pfizer will be paying a $30 quarterly dividend and DJIA will be at 35,000? Thanks.

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ETA on when Pfizer will be paying a $30 quarterly dividend and DJIA will be at 35,000? Thanks.

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Unfortunately at the current rate of dollar debasement it may not be as far away as you think!

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Peter Lynch once said "I don't know which way the next 1,000 points in the Dow will go but the next 6,000 points are up". He said that with the Dow at about 6,000.

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Good thing Lynch didn't say this in 2007.

What's funny about the 07-09 sell off, err crash, is that if you didn't sell.....and you kept buying like normal..... you ended up doing great.

Anybody else notice the 30 year bond dropping in yield and flattening the yield curve again? How about retail stocks lagging the market by such a large margin? Home sales don't look to good either. Higher tax rates and the democrats job killing policies don't produce recoveries, they produce recessions. These are bad signs for the so called recovery. QE Infinity on the horizon if the market takes a big hit like previous attempts to stop QE?

still waiting??

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still waiting??

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Eventually someone will get to post, "See, I TOLD you the correction was starting!"

Housing market here in Seattle is back to pre-crash levels.

Damn Californians moving up here to ruin everything.

How do you make that symbol without stars?

edit: DP