Five of the scenarios that eliminate the Astros from the playoffs are still in play. Four of the scenarios that get us there were eliminated last night. Winning one today removes 3 of the bad.

So how are we feeling with pornstache on the mound tonight against a Cy-Young candidate?

Bregxit said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Bregxit said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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WAR Leaders going into the final weekend:

Player - fWAR / bWAR
Tucker - 4.9 / 5.1
Alvarez - 4.5 / 4.5
Altuve - 4.2 / 2.8 (DRS screwed him)
Bregman - 4.2 / 4.8
McCormick - 4.1 / 3.7
Pena - 2.6 / 3.4
Diaz - 2.1 / 3.3
Dubon - 1.8 / 2.5
Meyers - 1.7 / 1.6
Brantley - 0.3 / -0.1
Kessinger - 0.3 / 0.0
Julks - 0.3 / 0.3
Singleton - -0.1 / -0.1
Bannon - -0.1 / -0.2
Salazar - -0.2 / -0.2
Madris - -0.3 / -0.3
Hensley - -0.8 / -0.8
Abreu - -0.9 / -0.4
Maldonado - -1.0 / 0.1

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But but Bregman is terrible and we should replace him!

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His September has been God awful. I mean get sent down to triple A if you aren't Bregman bad.

And his yearly numbers are still that.

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Tucker and Bregs have similar Sept numbers except Tuck's 4 triples. Breggy has more hits and higher OBP, Tucker has a higher slug. Breggy does have too many GIDP this month.

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Only four players have hit into more in the entire league over the course of the season. If Correa was still here their combined number would be 52 GIDP.

I'm more nervous about our lineup against their pitcher than the other way around.
Which lineup are we gonna get tonight? The one that can't hit the broadside of a barn or the one that comes thru when it counts?

Update after Thursday: All “Mariners win 0” rows removed.

There are now just 16 different ways the Astros/Arizona and Seattle/Texas series can go. 11 of them are good for Houston (2 division + 9 wild card). pic.twitter.com/TERzpt1wBf

— Cory Lieder (@AustinCory) September 29, 2023

FrioAg 00 said:

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I guess I'm just being grump - but it really pisses me off that if we had even taken 2/3 against horrible KC we would be in first place right now

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Thanks for ruining my morning buddy

OKCAg2002 said:

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So how are we feeling with pornstache on the mound tonight against a Cy-Young candidate?

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Gallen is good but inconsistent. Sound familiar? We finally got to Bryce Miller the other night, we have the horses to get to Gallen.

I am just looking for JP to not dig us into a hole we can't get out of. Give me 6 innings of 2-3 run ball and I would be ecstatic. AZ is top heavy.

75AG said:

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I'm so confused. Who do we want to win???

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Mariners for me. Id take the division 6 days a week and twice on Sunday. Give me the bye so we can get some rest. Hopefully we take care of business, and last night gave Seattle a little momentum after getting dick slapped by Neris.

Farmer1906 said:

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FrioAg 00 said:

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I guess I'm just being grump - but it really pisses me off that if we had even taken 2/3 against horrible KC we would be in first place right now

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We went 2-7 vs the Royals & As. All we needed to do was 4-5. Still sub .500. How ridiculous is that?!?!

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all this is assuming we'd win the games we did after those series. Doesn't do any good to play the "if" game.

yeah, but the team hasn't been good for a month and they're relying on a middle reliever to fire the guys up

i think they need all the help they can get

No way on this planet do I trust this 2023 Astros team to win out. Split with the two worst teams in MLB over the past few weeks, and we've runaway with the division.

That where I'm at. Just don't implode as a starting pitcher the first time through the order and then just make do through 5-6 innings. Get the game to the bullpen 3x this weekend either tight game or lead but none of these big crooked numbers.

Also, gaining 2 games in 3 days on the Rangers seems unlikely even with their bullpen so I am probably rooting for Seattle to lose (they own the tiebreaker remember). Now, if we win tonight and Rangers lose then all of that changes in a hurry. But right now, statistically, our closest threat is Seattle.

Go Rangers, then.

Farmer1906 said:

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Go Rangers, then.

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Farmer1906 said:

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Go Rangers, then.

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huh?

Bassmaster said:

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I saw a lot of discussion last night on here about Dubon's back foot movement in his swing. I'm sure many of you know, but for those who don't, it is a "scissor kick" and is commonly taught. Altuve does it too. Here is a video talking about it.

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As does Chas and numerous others

AustinCountyAg said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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FrioAg 00 said:

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I guess I'm just being grump - but it really pisses me off that if we had even taken 2/3 against horrible KC we would be in first place right now

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We went 2-7 vs the Royals & As. All we needed to do was 4-5. Still sub .500. How ridiculous is that?!?!

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all this is assuming we'd win the games we did after those series. Doesn't do any good to play the "if" game.

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Don't disagree, but the main point is that is the period where the Astros could have built on their lead of the division going into those series - and they failed miserably. I did not expect them to go 2-7 against the Royals and A's, especially getting swept by the Royals.

Astros have been Jekyll and Hyde too much this season. Pulling for a post-season run, but man, I'm not going to be so sorry to see this season be in the books and a new manager come to town.

Do you really believe this team will sweep the snakes, who are also fighting for their playoff lives? I've been a Colt 45s/Stros fan since 1962, and I don't have that level of faith.

You're clearly a better fan than me.

75AG said:

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Do you really believe this team will sweep the snakes, who are also fighting for their playoff lives? I've been a Colt 45s/Stros fan since 1962, and I don't have that level of faith.

You're clearly a better fan than me.

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Nah. I think the most likely scenario is we take 2/3 and the Rangers/Mariners split. We get the WC.

You're not a great fan by having blind faith. I think we're all justified being disappointed we failed to meet regular season expectations.

Completely agree

So we could clinch a playoff spot today - magic number is 2 - we win, Rangers lose? Or then have to hope Rangers win at least one Sat or Sun?

Big Al 1992 said:

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So we could clinch a playoff spot today - magic number is 2 - we win, Rangers lose? Or then have to hope Rangers win at least one Sat or Sun?

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Magic # is 3 with the Mariners. We cannot clinch today. We need to win and Mariners need to lose.

If we want to win the division, then we need to win out and the Rangers need to lose 2 more.

Farmer1906 said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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So we could clinch a playoff spot today - magic number is 2 - we win, Rangers lose? Or then have to hope Rangers win at least one Sat or Sun?

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Magic # is 3 with the Mariners. We cannot clinch today. We need to win and Mariners need to lose.

If we want to win the division, then we need to win out and the Rangers need to lose 2 more.

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All the scenarios tonight are very interesting.

Astros and Rangers win - Rangers need to keep the foot on the gas and the Astros number drops to 1 to make playoffs but can't win the division. If the Cubs lose then the Diamondbacks clinch anyway. This is best case scenario for making the playoffs.

Astros and Mariners win - Rangers are under full pressure and magic number drops to 2 for the Astros.

Astros and Rangers lose - Rangers still need 1 win to clinch division. Astros have a ton of pressure but the Diamondbacks will have clinched a playoff birth.

Astros and Mariners lose - Astros magic number is 2. The Rangers will have nothing left to play for but the Diamondbacks will have clinched. This is worst case scenario.

The Cubs/Brewers game should be wrapping up by the time we're in the 5th. Hopefully we're up a few runs and the Cubs lose so the Diamondbacks don't feel the need to use high leverage relievers.

Worst case is we lose and rangers lose. That means we no longer control our destiny. We'd need help from Arlington to make the postseason.