***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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Farmer1906
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In reply to BadAggie • 2:46p, 9/28/23
AG
BadAggie said:
If Astros are in wildcard then best scenario is they win Friday and Arlington wins Thursday and Friday. Then can rest JV, Javier and Valdez this weekend
The earlier we clinch the sooner we can get the pitching lined up. Framber on full rest would be Monday so I don't think he's in play. He'll be G1 of the WC. If it comes down to the final game of the year, Javier could go in place of Brown. It would stink to burn both JV and Javier before the WC series though.

If we clinch on Friday, let JV throw light on Saturday so he's still available Tuesday. Treat Brown the same way on Sunday. Get him get 1-2 innings and pass the ball off to Blanco or Dubin so we're not burning anyone important.

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AgLA06
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In reply to houag78 • 2:47p, 9/28/23
AG
houag78 said:
The other problem w Bregs' Sep struggles is he's putting Yordan in the lead off position - 5 times in last 4 games. Now, he's hit 3 HR in those 5 AB, but just imagine our run production if Bregs isn't ending the inning.
Yep. Sometimes numbers don't tell the whole story.
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jkag89
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 2:48p, 9/28/23
Mathguy64 said:
Farmer1906 said:
spadilly said:


Lol what?
Its RE. He made lots of bad calls. But the times he did it to Seattle mattered more in their system.

Miss a 2-1 ball and go 2-2 instead of 3-1 with one out and bases empty? Whatever. Its still 1 out and bases empty. The RE matrix hasnt changed.

Miss a ball at 2-2 and go K instead of 3-2 with bases loaded and 1 out? Now its bases loaded 2 outs and you chop 0.75 runs off the expectancy table.
A good explanations of Ump Scorecard and some of its short comings.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:50p, 9/28/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
houag78 said:
The other problem w Bregs' Sep struggles is he's putting Yordan in the lead off position - 5 times in last 4 games. Now, he's hit 3 HR in those 5 AB, but just imagine our run production if Bregs isn't ending the inning.
Yep. Sometimes numbers don't tell the whole story.
Gotta use the right number.

Breggy's RE24 for Sept is -2.17. That aint ideal.
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Mr President Elect
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2:51p, 9/28/23
AG
Defintely want the division. Our home woes do bother me, but am hopefull we get that turned around. It is just such an easier path to the WS. One less series and getting to play a team that just had to burn their #1 & #2, instead of us being the team having to burn ours.

This is a bit of a defeatest mentality, but after the way this year has finished, I'll be relatively happy if we can just keep our ALCS streak alive. Our starting pitching really worries me and while we have the bats to compensate, they just haven't all clicked at the same time.
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Beau Holder
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 3:02p, 9/28/23
AG
I'd be fine with ALCS as well. This I'm fine with WC because it means more games to watch.
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HarryRocket
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 3:02p, 9/28/23
Mr President Elect said:


This is a bit of a defeatest mentality, but after the way this year has finished, I'll be relatively happy if we can just keep our ALCS streak alive. Our starting pitching really worries me and while we have the bats to compensate, they just haven't all clicked at the same time.


Gross but you're not wrong.

With a New manager and a Trevor Bauer we can make a run next year.
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tjack16
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 3:03p, 9/28/23
AG
Mr President Elect said:
Defintely want the division. Our home woes do bother me, but am hopefull we get that turned around. It is just such an easier path to the WS. One less series and getting to play a team that just had to burn their #1 & #2, instead of us being the team having to burn ours.

This is a bit of a defeatest mentality, but after the way this year has finished, I'll be relatively happy if we can just keep our ALCS streak alive. Our starting pitching really worries me and while we have the bats to compensate, they just haven't all clicked at the same time.


Our home woes make me worry too but also I wonder if just the "playoffs" would change that a bit.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to HarryRocket • 3:05p, 9/28/23
AG
HarryRocket said:
Mr President Elect said:


This is a bit of a defeatest mentality, but after the way this year has finished, I'll be relatively happy if we can just keep our ALCS streak alive. Our starting pitching really worries me and while we have the bats to compensate, they just haven't all clicked at the same time.


Gross but you're not wrong.

With a New manager and a Trevor Bauer we can make a run next year.
Sure. And maybe we can get Wander Franco for $0.10 on the $1 and put him at SS. And get Chapman to close.

No. Just no.
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HarryRocket
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3:07p, 9/28/23
I'm fine with Franco. He's not living next door to me so shrug.

(Ftr I am ignorant to that situation,)

We're the villains. Give the people what they want.
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CFTXAG10
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3:26p, 9/28/23
AG
D-Backs lost
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Farmer1906
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3:28p, 9/28/23
AG

Quote:
I'm fine with Franco
I am not.

I like rooting for guys who aren't scumbags.
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Mr.Bond
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In reply to CFTXAG10 • 3:32p, 9/28/23
AG
CFTXAG10 said:
D-Backs lost



Fack. Go braves **gag**
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

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Prosperdick
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In reply to tjack16 • 3:40p, 9/28/23
AG
tjack16 said:
Mr President Elect said:
Defintely want the division. Our home woes do bother me, but am hopefull we get that turned around. It is just such an easier path to the WS. One less series and getting to play a team that just had to burn their #1 & #2, instead of us being the team having to burn ours.

This is a bit of a defeatest mentality, but after the way this year has finished, I'll be relatively happy if we can just keep our ALCS streak alive. Our starting pitching really worries me and while we have the bats to compensate, they just haven't all clicked at the same time.


Our home woes make me worry too but also I wonder if just the "playoffs" would change that a bit.
Don't forget Donkey won't have final say on the lineup card anymore so that could also help our "home woes."
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Mr President Elect
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3:41p, 9/28/23
AG
Go Cubs / Marlins. Let's extend this regular season "postseason" and taste some DBack tears this weekend.
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linkdude
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3:43p, 9/28/23
AG
Maybe our guys will get up for Gallen
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flashplayer
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 4:12p, 9/28/23
AG
Mr President Elect said:
Defintely want the division. Our home woes do bother me, but am hopefull we get that turned around. It is just such an easier path to the WS. One less series and getting to play a team that just had to burn their #1 & #2, instead of us being the team having to burn ours.

This is a bit of a defeatest mentality, but after the way this year has finished, I'll be relatively happy if we can just keep our ALCS streak alive. Our starting pitching really worries me and while we have the bats to compensate, they just haven't all clicked at the same time.


Looking at the playoff schedule, you're not really "burning your 1 & 2" that badly. They would pitch games 2, 3, and 5 on full rest against the other team's 2nd and 3rd pitchers for games 2 & 3. They'd both see the mound before you can be eliminated.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to linkdude • 4:14p, 9/28/23
AG
Phrasing is important
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Farmer1906
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 4:16p, 9/28/23
AG
I hope we get all in that ass.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:22p, 9/28/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:

Quote:
I'm fine with Franco
I am not.

I like rooting for guys who aren't scumbags.


But we're the Astros!
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eATMup-Reveille
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4:31p, 9/28/23
Sorry if this has been asked previously, but what is the scenario if all three teams end up with 73 losses?
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tjack16
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In reply to HarryRocket • 4:33p, 9/28/23
AG
HarryRocket said:
I'm fine with Franco. He's not living next door to me so shrug.

(Ftr I am ignorant to that situation,)

We're the villains. Give the people what they want.


I'd prefer not to have a pedophile on the payroll
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jkag89
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In reply to AgLA06 • 4:39p, 9/28/23
AgLA06 said:
Farmer1906 said:

Quote:
I'm fine with Franco
I am not.

I like rooting for guys who aren't scumbags.


But we're the Astros!
We're hated enough with a team of pretty good dudes, there is no need to add scumbages.
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AggieDub04
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In reply to eATMup-Reveille • 4:42p, 9/28/23
AG
By three teams you mean Astros, Mariners, and Rangers? If that happens then Rangers win the division based on combined record in games among the three. Mariners own head to head over Astros so Astros miss the playoffs.
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eATMup-Reveille
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In reply to AggieDub04 • 4:49p, 9/28/23
AggieDub04 said:
By three teams you mean Astros, Mariners, and Rangers? If that happens then Rangers win the division based on combined record in games among the three. Mariners own head to head over Astros so Astros miss the playoffs.
If I'm correct, I think I see the following:

Astros 9 wins Rangers 4 wins
Mariners 9 wins Astros 4 wins
Rangers 8 wins Mariners 5 wins

So no team will have a better head-to-head against the other two.

I think it then would go to who has the most victories:

Mariners 14 (Division champions)
Astros 13 (Wild card)
Rangers 12 - Out unless Blue Jays get swept




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Mr President Elect
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In reply to AggieDub04 • 4:50p, 9/28/23
AG
AggieDub04 said:
By three teams you mean Astros, Mariners, and Rangers? If that happens then Rangers win the division based on combined record in games among the three. Mariners own head to head over Astros so Astros miss the playoffs.
Nope. We make it in as a 5 or 6 seed and Rangers or Blue Jays are out. From my previous post:

Mr President Elect said:

We win 2 of 3:
- 2 seed impossible. If Tex loses all 4. 3-way tie, M's would have best overall h2h record (since normal h2h is a 3-way tie)
- 5 seed if BJ's lose 3+ of 4 and M's lose 1+ of 4 OR Tex loses all 4 and BJs lose 2+ (we win 3-team here somehow)
- 6 seed if M's lose 1+ of 4 and BJ's win 2+ of 4 OR Tex loses all 4 and BJs win 3+
- can't miss playoffs as Tex would miss playoffs if M's win all 4 or possibly BJs miss if they lose 2+ and lose the 3-way tie
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Bassmaster
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4:50p, 9/28/23
AG
I saw a lot of discussion last night on here about Dubon's back foot movement in his swing. I'm sure many of you know, but for those who don't, it is a "scissor kick" and is commonly taught. Altuve does it too. Here is a video talking about it.

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FrioAg 00
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4:51p, 9/28/23
AG
So, who are we pulling for tonight?

If the Rangers win, it is difficult to see a path to us winning the division - as Seattle would have to win 3 straight and hope we lose 2. But our wildcard probability goes up quite a bit.


If the Mariners win, our division odds increase but they are still bad. However our odds of miss the playoffs entirely go up.

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Mr President Elect
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In reply to eATMup-Reveille • 4:53p, 9/28/23
AG
eATMup-Reveille said:
AggieDub04 said:
By three teams you mean Astros, Mariners, and Rangers? If that happens then Rangers win the division based on combined record in games among the three. Mariners own head to head over Astros so Astros miss the playoffs.
If I'm correct, I think I see the following:

Astros 9 wins Rangers 4 wins
Mariners 9 wins Astros 4 wins
Rangers 8 wins Mariners 5 wins

So no team will have a better head-to-head against the other two.

I think it then would go to who has the most victories:

Mariners 14 (Division champions)
Astros 13 (Wild card)
Rangers 12 - Out unless Blue Jays get swept




Blue Jays would just need to lose 2 for them to be out. They lose the 3-way tiebreaker. The rest of what you said is correct.
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to flashplayer • 4:55p, 9/28/23
AG
flashplayer said:
Mr President Elect said:
Defintely want the division. Our home woes do bother me, but am hopefull we get that turned around. It is just such an easier path to the WS. One less series and getting to play a team that just had to burn their #1 & #2, instead of us being the team having to burn ours.

This is a bit of a defeatest mentality, but after the way this year has finished, I'll be relatively happy if we can just keep our ALCS streak alive. Our starting pitching really worries me and while we have the bats to compensate, they just haven't all clicked at the same time.


Looking at the playoff schedule, you're not really "burning your 1 & 2" that badly. They would pitch games 2, 3, and 5 on full rest against the other team's 2nd and 3rd pitchers for games 2 & 3. They'd both see the mound before you can be eliminated.
Yeah, stupid equity scheduling. Still feel like the less games we have to pitch the better chance our starters have at not blowing up.
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eATMup-Reveille
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 4:58p, 9/28/23
Mr President Elect said:
eATMup-Reveille said:
AggieDub04 said:
By three teams you mean Astros, Mariners, and Rangers? If that happens then Rangers win the division based on combined record in games among the three. Mariners own head to head over Astros so Astros miss the playoffs.
If I'm correct, I think I see the following:

Astros 9 wins Rangers 4 wins
Mariners 9 wins Astros 4 wins
Rangers 8 wins Mariners 5 wins

So no team will have a better head-to-head against the other two.

I think it then would go to who has the most victories:

Mariners 14 (Division champions)
Astros 13 (Wild card)
Rangers 12 - Out unless Blue Jays get swept




Blue Jays would just need to lose 2 for them to be out. They lose the 3-way tiebreaker. The rest of what you said is correct.
I failed to see that the Blue Jays have 4 games left. The Rangers have a 6-1 victory margin over the Rangers. So if the Mariners win the division, and the Blue Jays also end up with 73 losses, is it then a new 3 team tie-breaker for the two wild card spots?
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to eATMup-Reveille • 5:00p, 9/28/23
AG
eATMup-Reveille said:
Mr President Elect said:
eATMup-Reveille said:
AggieDub04 said:
By three teams you mean Astros, Mariners, and Rangers? If that happens then Rangers win the division based on combined record in games among the three. Mariners own head to head over Astros so Astros miss the playoffs.
If I'm correct, I think I see the following:

Astros 9 wins Rangers 4 wins
Mariners 9 wins Astros 4 wins
Rangers 8 wins Mariners 5 wins

So no team will have a better head-to-head against the other two.

I think it then would go to who has the most victories:

Mariners 14 (Division champions)
Astros 13 (Wild card)
Rangers 12 - Out unless Blue Jays get swept




Blue Jays would just need to lose 2 for them to be out. They lose the 3-way tiebreaker. The rest of what you said is correct.
I failed to see that the Blue Jays have 4 games left. The Rangers have a 6-1 victory margin over the Rangers. So if the Mariners win the division, and the Blue Jays also end up with 73 losses, is it then a new 3 team tie-breaker for the two wild card spots?
Yes, we win that 3-way tiebreaker. So we get the 5 seed. Rangers get the 6.
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tjack16
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5:04p, 9/28/23
AG
Well I guess Kansas City is no longer hot. Swept by Detroit.

Man we really sucked at home
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Wabs
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5:04p, 9/28/23
AG
I don't want the division. I want to go with the WC and really earn our spot in the ALCS and WS. I'd rather have our guys earn it than go the easy route and have a bye. #MarinersLogic
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linkdude
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In reply to tjack16 • 5:39p, 9/28/23
AG
Hinch getting his revenge
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