I'm dumbly excited about going to tomorrows afternoon game - probably because it's my first one this year, but man I'm fired up and mainly not to make a drunken boo boo in the Crawford's

Yesterday, Dusty Baker was, at best, noncommittal to José Abreu returning in an everyday role at first base. Wrote this 12 days ago about the Astros' first-base crossroads and it still applies - https://t.co/FSHF1Ihlal

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 23, 2023

Farmer1906 said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!

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Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.

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Correct, but if you're the home team playing in a tied game inning 9 or later, your probability of winning increases by bunting the runner over to 3rd.

Beat40 said:

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SpaceCityAg05 said:

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That is completely fair to question to role of bunt success into the strategy, especially with how poor players have become at a skill that used to be fundamental.

I was simply arguing the probabilities side, but yes, when you decide to bunt, you risk having a batter who can't bunt pop one up to the pitcher so that you end with a runner on second with one out.

That is why the best option is always the lefty contact hitter who can make sure to hit the ball to the right side.

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But it's presented a lot on this forum as bunting in extras as the home team is all but iron clad. If the % bunt being successful is even 70%, do you want to take the 30% chance, which is significant by the way, you have a man on 2B with 1 out, which is a much worse outcome.

My point on the expectancy tables is man on 2B with 0 outs has a run expectancy over 1 and man on 3B with 1 out had a run expectancy below 1. To me that means the 1 run scores more often with a man on 2B with no outs than the 1 run scores with a man on 3B with 1 out.

Given the successful bunt % and the downside of a failed bunt being significantly worse coupled with the above, my official stance is in most cases I'd rather play it straight up and have the bunt option be a case by case basis.

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Should've made clear - if it's a little leaguer or Maldy - you bunt!

Dusty is a pos

Homer Genius said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!

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Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.

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Correct, but if you're the home team playing in a tied game inning 9 or later, your probability of winning increases by bunting the runner over to 3rd.

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Only if the bunt is successful.

This section from the below article outlines it:

This, of course, assumes that all your sacrifice bunt attempts will be successful, which they aren't. On average, they're successful about 70-80% of the time. When they're not successful, the chance of 0 runs jumps by about 20%.

Chance of 0 runs in the inning with a runner on 2nd with 1 out: 60.2%

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/platform/amp/2020/7/30/21347698/bunting-the-runner-over-in-extras-run-expectancy-odds-extra-innings-walk-off-bunt-sacrifice

So there is a 20%-30% chance you significantly decrease your winning percentage.

There is still a pretty big risk in bunting for a marginal increase in win % for a 3B, 1 out scenario vs a 2B, 0 out scenario.

Hey Dusty, nobody will be thanking you later because you won't be resigned after this year because you didn't play one of the players that could help us win...HTH

2 other thoughts I wanted to keep separate from the Dusty nonsense:

1) I wouldn't argue with someone posting as "mathguy" about math
2) My espn app said Abreu had "lumbar spine inflammation." That doesn't sound like something he should have been trying to play through.


Hope it's healed and he starts mashing. We'll be really dangerous, if so.

redline248 said:

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I wouldn't argue with someone posting as "mathguy" about math
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Meh. My wife argues math with me all the time.

Agreed, was just pointing to the fact that while expected runs goes down, your chance of winning is better given those 2 distinct scenarios. Obviously execution matters and who you've got at the plate/on deck.

If Maldy is up with an empty bench, you bunt, if it's Yordan, you don't.

Mathguy64 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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Beat40 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!

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Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.

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It's not worth the conversation, farmer. I've had the same discussion and have been told it's different when you only need one run even though there is no data set to support that claim and even though the multi-run expectancy tables include the one run you're trying to score.

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I know we have had this discussion more than once. I will say the RE tables all say they do not contain ANY Manfredball data. It's regular season play only.

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Sure but it knows what happens when someone reaches second with no outs.

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No. That RE table is based on people managing and making decisions to maximize the number of runs scored. It's not a simulation. It's the history of what happened, usually aggregated for 3 years. That's not the same as maximizing your chances of scoring only 1 run. You aren't trying to achieve the same outcome. And it doesn't include the outcomes based on the other team making decisions to minimize your chances of scoring only one run.

If you have a man on 3B with 2 outs you may be willing to walk a player or 2 to get to a preferred hitter if all you care about is the single run. Where in a regular game you would never do that.

You may also play your defense back with 0 outs and a man on 3B to give up a run to get an out. In Manfredball you cannot do that. The RE table includes the first scenario but in Manfredball you cannot do that.

I'm sure the teams (at least the smart ones) have simulated game data. But I'll bet good money it doesn't match the RE data.

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This is my last comment mainly because I think it's an interesting m discussion.

I think the bunt success rate prevents this data set from being formed. The win expectancy increase in a 3B, 1 out scenario vs a 2B, 0 out scenario is marginal compared to the significant risk a drop in win percentage in a 2B, 0 out scenario and a 2B, 1 out scenario.

My guess is for most analytically driven teams, the bunt success rate mostly nullifies bunting a guy to 3B in an extra inning scenario.

However, with a guy that as a 90% bunt across rare, I'd do it very time.

Beau Holder said:

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Which is on Crane, honestly. He threw Click on the pyre and brought back a guy who rode shotgun to the title and stuck his new GM with him, and I assume now isn't doing much to lay down order.

(2015 could swoop in and explain that I'm wrong but that's my couch opinion)

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Well, I do think Click is a bit of a separate issue. That was a personality clash from all that's been reported, so I think he was gone regardless.

I do think it would have been tough for Jim to fire Dusty after winning a WS and the players love winning it for him.