SpaceCityAg05 said:

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Regardless of the numbers, I think you see more attempts to hit the ball the other way than outright bunts for two reasons: (1) the possibility of moving the runner over without automatically recording an out, (2) there are fewer reliable bunters in baseball than ever as it has become a lost art.

That is why even in scenarios where the sac bunt COULD make sense, it may still not be the right play if you don't have confidence in the bunting ability of your hitter. The nightmare scenario is where the bunter pops one up for an out or fouls off two bunts before meekly striking out and wasting an out.

Likewise, strikeouts are the biggest killers in these one-run scenarios.

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I think we're overall on the same page. I think overall, whether your just trying to score 1 run or multiple runs, teams aren't willing to give up the run expectancy from either scenario to get a guy on 2B to 3B and 1 out. That's my inference based on all teams' actions.

It doesn't mean the bunt doesn't work or wouldn't be the right decision in the right circumstances.

It just doesn't mean the Astros wouldn't be 0-5 in extra innings if they bunted a guy to 3B and just tried to put the ball in play every time.

But an issue with bunting is that most players these days are so bad at it. Besides Altuve are there any Astros that have shown to be competent at laying down a bunt?

A year or two ago I heard Dusty say in an interview that a lot of guys get to the major leagues without ever having bunted. And he said it like he was an observer and didn't have any control over that. I would love to know how much time the Astros practiced bunting in spring training.

If there's a runner on third with one out, a good sacrifice bunt is almost impossible to defend.

I promise I'm not trying to be argumentative. I'm only old enough to have really paid heavy attention to baseball from like 2000.

How frequent were suicide squeezes back when bunting was popular/people were good at it?

Beat40 said:

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I promise I'm not trying to be argumentative. I'm only old enough to have really paid heavy attention to baseball from like 2000.

How frequent were suicide squeezes back when bunting was popular/people were good at it?

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I'll admit that part of my view is skewed by becoming a baseball fan in the late 60s when runs were a lot harder to come by. If you were watching a matchup between Gibson and Drysdale with the expectation that both guys were gonna go nine innings, every run was precious. Sac bunts were way more common then including suicide squeezes. Stealing home was something you would see occasionally.

I know that today's game is different. But if you're home team in extra innings and the score is tied, small ball will work if you know how to do it.

BUT LOOK AT THE GAMES PLAYED!!!!

So Dubon is leading off. I'm setting the O/U on number of pitches he sees in T1 at 0.5

Mathguy64 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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I don't know a lot about run expectancy and WRC+ and wxFIP or whatever.

But I do know...No one can ever accuse the Astros thread for under analyzing anything.

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Beats the hell out of claiming Odor is a HOF candidate based on how many games he's played.

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Amen, my friend! I appreciate the discussion today! It's fun talking about that kind of stuff. Intrigues me why teams do what they do when it seems like it's almost a no-brainer to have a guy in 3B with 1 out.

don't know anyone in the Reds lineup

Some interesting young talent. You don't know India? Wasn't he NL ROY?

an economy of pitches for France

I recall he played at Florida

Nice we don't have to face Elly De La Cruz tonight. Stud rookie shortstop who has been on a tear to begin his career

well, at least Dubon took 3 pitches

Beat40 said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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I don't know a lot about run expectancy and WRC+ and wxFIP or whatever.

But I do know...No one can ever accuse the Astros thread for under analyzing anything.

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Beats the hell out of claiming Odor is a HOF candidate based on how many games he's played.

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Amen, my friend! I appreciate the discussion today! It's fun talking about that kind of stuff. Intrigues me why teams do what they do when it seems like it's almost a no-brainer to have a guy in 3B with 1 out.

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I think it's a great set of strategy questions and give Manfredball has been played for 3 seasons surely there is enough data to make a statistical model that gives the maximal strategy. Now whether or not Dusty follows that strategy is another thing altogether.

W said:

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well, at least Dubon took 3 pitches

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And by took you mean he took 3 pitches to get out. As opposed to you know, taking pitches.

Fastball must have some rise on it. Dubon and Altuve both chasing the high cheese

A lot of action on those pitches.

this Abbott guy looks like trouble

So it seems we're back on Bregman watch.

I honestly don't like being negative.

TK says he's on a 5 for 35 jag

Woof

oh boy, the mowing down has begun

Bats look worse than last night. Don't even know how that is possible

Ugh. Diaz swung at one in the dirt and another above his head.

Aggression is one thing but he does need to learn the zone.

Plate discipline. That's Yanier's biggest weakness.

And more big league at bats will help that. But maybe that's been him the entire time as a pro? Idk, anyone?

25 min thru 2 1/2 innings. Is that a new record?

25 pitches for France thru 3

France 25 pitches after 3.

Edit: ha

France is in Maddox mode.