***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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AggiEE
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In reply to W • 12:56p, 6/16/23
W said:
texasaggie2015 said:
Yeah we dodged a major bullet not bringing Vasquez back. That said, catcher is the least of our worries right now. Getting healthy is most important. And the bullpen has to get going.
this is true when the Astros have the lead

when the Astros are behind or tied...like last night...catcher becomes an enormous problem

in large part because the manager won't pinch hit

We have lost an enormous amount of 1 run games going into the 9th or extra innings.

Having a competently allocated lineup could have easily turned the table across 9+ innings and made many of those games a win.
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to AggiEE • 1:03p, 6/16/23
AG
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.
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Beat40
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In reply to Prosperdick • 1:14p, 6/16/23
At this point, with Yordan out, I just want Dusty to play Dubon, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Abreu, Pena, and Diaz everyday. At minimum not give two of those guys off on the same day. The line-up becomes so short when two of those guys are out at the same time.
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Ags #1
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In reply to Beat40 • 1:19p, 6/16/23
AG
Dont we all No way in hell dusty does that though
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Beat40 • 1:21p, 6/16/23
AG
Beat40 said:
At this point, with Yordan out, I just want Dusty to play Dubon, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Abreu, Pena, and Diaz everyday. At minimum not give two of those guys off on the same day. The line-up becomes so short when two of those guys are out at the same time.
You're gonna get Maldy and Julks and you're gonna LIKE IT!!!
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Beau Holder
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In reply to Beat40 • 1:43p, 6/16/23
AG
Beat40 said:
At this point, with Yordan out, I just want Dusty to play Dubon, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Abreu, Pena, and Diaz everyday. At minimum not give two of those guys off on the same day. The line-up becomes so short when two of those guys are out at the same time.

Would be ideal but Dusty doesn't have two brain cells to rub together.
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Beat40
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In reply to Prosperdick • 1:46p, 6/16/23
Prosperdick said:
Beat40 said:
At this point, with Yordan out, I just want Dusty to play Dubon, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Abreu, Pena, and Diaz everyday. At minimum not give two of those guys off on the same day. The line-up becomes so short when two of those guys are out at the same time.
You're gonna get Maldy and Julks and you're gonna LIKE IT!!!
Honestly, if when Diaz is DHing, you can play Dubon in CF and both Julks and Maldy can play if Dusty feels like it. I wouldn't be that upset with a situation like that except for you lose some really good CF defense in Meyers/Chas.
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texasaggie2015
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2:02p, 6/16/23
AG
Julks should not be getting regular big league ABs. His OBP is what.. .280ish now? It blows my mind how often he's in the lineup.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 2:15p, 6/16/23
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Julks should not be getting regular big league ABs. His OBP is what.. .280ish now? It blows my mind how often he's in the lineup.


Old school guys don't favor OBA and Dusty is as old school as it gets.
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Beau Holder
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 2:23p, 6/16/23
AG
It's not as though his boomer-friendly counting stats are all that special either.
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Faustus
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2:41p, 6/16/23
Julks is pretty likable and played at a local college, so at least there's that.

He could have a Jeff Kent attitude without the talent, not to mention that mustache before it became arch, so it could be worse.
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redline248
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2:44p, 6/16/23
AG
Stanek reinstated, what is the corresponding move?
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to redline248 • 2:44p, 6/16/23
AG
Gage being sent down.
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Ags #1
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3:19p, 6/16/23
AG
Pena batting 7th
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tjack16
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 3:22p, 6/16/23
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Gage being sent down.


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McInnis
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 3:45p, 6/16/23
AG
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
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Beat40
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In reply to McInnis • 4:02p, 6/16/23
McInnis said:
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
The scenario of a runner on 2B with no outs usually has a run expectancy slightly over 1 run per inning. A runner on 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning.

Bunting for a sure out is giving up run expectancy. While the scenario 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning, you've willingly moved yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not (2B, no out is over 1 run per inning) to a scenario where 0 runs is scored more often than not (3B, 1 out is less than 1 run per inning).

That's why teams rarely bunt in extra innings.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Beat40 • 4:07p, 6/16/23
AG
Beat40 said:
McInnis said:
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
The scenario of a runner on 2B with no outs usually has a run expectancy slightly over 1 run per inning. A runner on 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning.

Bunting for a sure out is giving up run expectancy. While the scenario 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning, you've willingly moved yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not (2B, no out is over 1 run per inning) to a scenario where 0 runs is scored more often than not (3B, 1 out is less than 1 run per inning).

That's why teams rarely bunt.
Except this scenario is different. If all you need in the bottom of the Manfredinning is 1 run to win you aren't playing the same game. It's not a multi run scenario.
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McInnis
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In reply to Beat40 • 4:13p, 6/16/23
AG
Beat40 said:
McInnis said:
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
The scenario of a runner on 2B with no outs usually has a run expectancy slightly over 1 run per inning. A runner on 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning.

Bunting for a sure out is giving up run expectancy. While the scenario 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning, you've willingly moved yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not (2B, no out is over 1 run per inning) to a scenario where 0 runs is scored more often than not (3B, 1 out is less than 1 run per inning).

That's why teams rarely bunt in extra innings.


I would assume those statistics reflect all game situations, not only when you're trying to score one run to win the game. Runner on third, one out and the batter swinging for the fences (as they usually do) vs batter shortening his swing and just trying to put the ball in play are different things.
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Beat40
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 4:30p, 6/16/23
Mathguy64 said:
Beat40 said:
McInnis said:
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
The scenario of a runner on 2B with no outs usually has a run expectancy slightly over 1 run per inning. A runner on 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning.

Bunting for a sure out is giving up run expectancy. While the scenario 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning, you've willingly moved yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not (2B, no out is over 1 run per inning) to a scenario where 0 runs is scored more often than not (3B, 1 out is less than 1 run per inning).

That's why teams rarely bunt.
Except this scenario is different. If all you need in the bottom of the Manfredinning is 1 run to win you aren't playing the same game. It's not a multi run scenario.
All you need is one run. Why would you willingly move yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not to a scenario where 1 run is scored less often than not?
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Beat40
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In reply to McInnis • 4:36p, 6/16/23
McInnis said:
Beat40 said:
McInnis said:
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
The scenario of a runner on 2B with no outs usually has a run expectancy slightly over 1 run per inning. A runner on 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning.

Bunting for a sure out is giving up run expectancy. While the scenario 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning, you've willingly moved yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not (2B, no out is over 1 run per inning) to a scenario where 0 runs is scored more often than not (3B, 1 out is less than 1 run per inning).

That's why teams rarely bunt in extra innings.


I would assume those statistics reflect all game situations, not only when you're trying to score one run to win the game. Runner on third, one out and the batter swinging for the fences (as they usually do) vs batter shortening his swing and just trying to put the ball in play are different things.
Trying to score 1 run to win the game is the exact same as all game situations. Lead off double in the 1st is the exact same as a man standing on 2nd to start extra innings.

I'd argue most guys are not swinging for the fences every AB. Most are trying to hit the ball extremely hard with a launch angle of 15-25 degrees because it produces the most hits.

I'd argue that approach with a man on 3rd and 1 out is actually a better approach than trying to slap the ball the other way.

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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Beat40 • 4:40p, 6/16/23
AG
Because the run expectancy numbers are taking the whole picture into account, which includes the odds of putting up a crooked number. This is why in conventional situations the sac bunt is a foolish play as it decreases run expectancy. It improves the odds of scoring that one run, but drastically reduces the odds of scoring more than one run.

However, as the home team in the bottom of the ninth and beyond in a tie game, you only need one run. Therefore, the bunt CAN be a smart play depending on other factors.

That being said, the BEST play with quality hitters is to hit to the right side of the field so that the runners moves up regardless without sacrificing the chance to get a hit.

Simply put, in Manfred ball if the home team prevents the visitor from scoring in the top of the frame, then it should be easy to win in the bottom. Yet the Astros consistently fail in this area. The only way games should get to the 11th inning and beyond is if you get a stalemate where both teams keep scoring one run per inning.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Beat40 • 4:42p, 6/16/23
AG
Beat40 said:
Mathguy64 said:
Beat40 said:
McInnis said:
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
The scenario of a runner on 2B with no outs usually has a run expectancy slightly over 1 run per inning. A runner on 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning.

Bunting for a sure out is giving up run expectancy. While the scenario 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning, you've willingly moved yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not (2B, no out is over 1 run per inning) to a scenario where 0 runs is scored more often than not (3B, 1 out is less than 1 run per inning).

That's why teams rarely bunt.
Except this scenario is different. If all you need in the bottom of the Manfredinning is 1 run to win you aren't playing the same game. It's not a multi run scenario.
All you need is one run. Why would you willingly move yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not to a scenario where 1 run is scored less often than not?



That RE matrix is based on data from all prior outcomes, mostly when teams are trying to maximize their run outcomes. If all you are trying to do is score 1 run and 1 only it's not the same data set.
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Beat40
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 4:54p, 6/16/23
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Because the run expectancy numbers are taking the whole picture into account, which includes the odds of putting up a crooked number. This is why in conventional situations the sac bunt is a foolish play as it decreases run expectancy. It improves the odds of scoring that one run, but drastically reduces the odds of scoring more than one run.

However, as the home team in the bottom of the ninth and beyond in a tie game, you only need one run. Therefore, the bunt CAN be a smart play depending on other factors.

That being said, the BEST play with quality hitters is to hit to the right side of the field so that the runners moves up regardless without sacrificing the chance to get a hit.

Simply put, in Manfred ball if the home team prevents the visitor from scoring in the top of the frame, then it should be easy to win in the bottom. Yet the Astros consistently fail in this area. The only way games should get to the 11th inning and beyond is if you get a stalemate where both teams keep scoring one run per inning.
In run expectancy numbers, the 1 run is still there, correct? Whether the inning is scoring 1 run or multiple, the 1 run is still scored. Who cares about multiple runs in that case? Don't you still want the highest odd to score 1?

You are going from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not to a scenario where 1 run is scored less often than not. I'm not talking about the over scenario where multiple runs are scored. I'm talking about the exact 1 run you need because it's included in the numbers. You're willingly giving up a scenario where you will more often than not score more than 1 run by giving up an out via bunt.

At least this is how I view it. If I'm interpreting rune expectancy wrong, please tell me.
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Beat40
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 4:55p, 6/16/23
Mathguy64 said:
Beat40 said:
Mathguy64 said:
Beat40 said:
McInnis said:
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
The scenario of a runner on 2B with no outs usually has a run expectancy slightly over 1 run per inning. A runner on 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning.

Bunting for a sure out is giving up run expectancy. While the scenario 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning, you've willingly moved yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not (2B, no out is over 1 run per inning) to a scenario where 0 runs is scored more often than not (3B, 1 out is less than 1 run per inning).

That's why teams rarely bunt.
Except this scenario is different. If all you need in the bottom of the Manfredinning is 1 run to win you aren't playing the same game. It's not a multi run scenario.
All you need is one run. Why would you willingly move yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not to a scenario where 1 run is scored less often than not?



That RE matrix is based on data from all prior outcomes, mostly when teams are trying to maximize their run outcomes. If all you are trying to do is score 1 run and 1 only it's not the same data set.
I'd argue teams' approach to the situation is what determines if it's a different data set or not.

If all teams are bunting and trying to hit the ball to the right side, then we could get a valid run expectancy in my eyes

If everyone is taking the same approach, then the data set is the same.
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W
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4:58p, 6/16/23
AG
another issue with run expectancy...

is your opponent using his closer or top setup man in the 10th?

or is he down to his 4th or 5th best bullpen arm
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Beat40 • 4:59p, 6/16/23
AG
Yes. Search online for 2022 run expectancy matrix. They have them for every year and they differ year by year.

This one has 2022 plus other ones for more unique events.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/adjusting-for-the-current-run-expectancy-matrix/
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Beat40
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 5:01p, 6/16/23
Mathguy64 said:
Yes. Search online for 2022 run expectancy matrix. They have them for every year and they differ year by year.
Thank you. I will search. Because the only run expectancy matrix I saw was for multiple runs.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Beat40 • 5:03p, 6/16/23
AG
Beat40 said:
Mathguy64 said:
Beat40 said:
Mathguy64 said:
Beat40 said:
McInnis said:
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Yup. Unfortunately, Manfred ball has turned extra innings into situations where small decisions and outcomes are even more magnified. It is not a coincidence that we struggle so much in extra inning games under Dusty despite having a top bullpen every year. We just struggle to score in extras even when a free run is essentially handed to you.


The Astros are 0-5 in extra inning games and that's not a fluke. Bunting or right handed batters trying to go the other way to advance the Manred runner is pretty rare in mlb these days, but we never see the Astros even try. Their philosophy seems to be to sit back and wait for the home run. If that doesn't work, keep trying.
The scenario of a runner on 2B with no outs usually has a run expectancy slightly over 1 run per inning. A runner on 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning.

Bunting for a sure out is giving up run expectancy. While the scenario 3B with 1 out is slightly less than 1 run per inning, you've willingly moved yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not (2B, no out is over 1 run per inning) to a scenario where 0 runs is scored more often than not (3B, 1 out is less than 1 run per inning).

That's why teams rarely bunt.
Except this scenario is different. If all you need in the bottom of the Manfredinning is 1 run to win you aren't playing the same game. It's not a multi run scenario.
All you need is one run. Why would you willingly move yourself from a scenario where 1 run is scored more often than not to a scenario where 1 run is scored less often than not?



That RE matrix is based on data from all prior outcomes, mostly when teams are trying to maximize their run outcomes. If all you are trying to do is score 1 run and 1 only it's not the same data set.
I'd argue teams' approach to the situation is what determines if it's a different data set or not.

If all teams are bunting and trying to hit the ball to the right side, then we could get a valid run expectancy in my eyes

If everyone is taking the same approach, then the data set is the same.
There is a difference between trying to maximize the number of runs you score and trying to maximize the chance of scoring just 1 run and no more than one run.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Beat40 • 5:04p, 6/16/23
AG
Beat40 said:
Mathguy64 said:
Yes. Search online for 2022 run expectancy matrix. They have them for every year and they differ year by year.
Thank you. I will search. Because the only run expectancy matrix I saw was for multiple runs.
I have never seen a RE table for trying to score just 1 run. My guess is there is enough data for one of you can collect it. I would expect the baseball nerds being paid to get it have it.
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Beat40
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 5:11p, 6/16/23
Mathguy64 said:
Beat40 said:
Mathguy64 said:
Yes. Search online for 2022 run expectancy matrix. They have them for every year and they differ year by year.
Thank you. I will search. Because the only run expectancy matrix I saw was for multiple runs.
I have never seen a RE table for trying to score just 1 run. My guess is there is enough data for one of you can collect it. I would expect the baseball nerds being paid to get it have it.
I guess that's my major point though. If most home teams just need 1 run to win, and the baseball nerds on the most forward-thinking teams have that data as you presume (as do I), then why are most teams, including the most analytical teams, employing the same strategy of NOT bunting guys over in extra innings? I'm inferring from the decisions teams are making when they only need 1 run to win the data is similar or at least supports the run expectancy matrix for all game situations.

Going to do some research over the weekend and see what I can come up with.
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Beat40 • 5:13p, 6/16/23
AG
Farmer or Mathguy may have the stats on hand, but while the overall run expectancy goes down with a runner on third and one out, the odds of one and exactly one run scoring goes up.

The run expectancy with a runner on second with no outs is higher because it is accounting for the potential for scoring more than one run on average.

The odds of scoring one and only one run in either situation is less than 100% (obviously), so the walkoff scenario run expectancy is less than 1.0 in both cases, but is higher with a runner on third and one out.
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Beat40
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 5:27p, 6/16/23
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Farmer or Mathguy may have the stats on hand, but while the overall run expectancy goes down with a runner on third and one out, the odds of one and exactly one run scoring goes up.

The run expectancy with a runner on second with no outs is higher because it is accounting for the potential for scoring more than one run on average.

The odds of scoring one and only one run in either situation is less than 100% (obviously), so the walkoff scenario run expectancy is less than 1.0 in both cases, but is higher with a runner on third and one out.


Certainly, but almost every team in MLB is rarely bunting and trying to just slap the ball around when they need only 1 run to win in extras. They question is why?

My inference, as I mentioned to Mathguy, is the numbers the baseball nerds have for circumstances where they only need 1 to win must be at least similar in principle to the overall run expectancy matrix to where they aren't willing to give up an out for a runner at 3B.
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Beat40 • 5:32p, 6/16/23
AG
Regardless of the numbers, I think you see more attempts to hit the ball the other way than outright bunts for two reasons: (1) the possibility of moving the runner over without automatically recording an out, (2) there are fewer reliable bunters in baseball than ever as it has become a lost art.

That is why even in scenarios where the sac bunt COULD make sense, it may still not be the right play if you don't have confidence in the bunting ability of your hitter. The nightmare scenario is where the bunter pops one up for an out or fouls off two bunts before meekly striking out and wasting an out.

Likewise, strikeouts are the biggest killers in these one-run scenarios.
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5:42p, 6/16/23
AG


This is so good. "We're gonna give Biggio 3 sliders and he's gonna swing at all 3"
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