mathguy86 said:
Farmer1906 said:
Ummm what? We're only 3 games better if we replace Reddick with Trout?
He's not going to magically win 8 games all by himself. This team is so good that other players pick each other up. I just don't see Trout taking 8 losing games and turning them into wins all by himself. 3-4 sounds about right. Its an impact and 3-4 is bigger than you think.
I'm not taking either side on this, but WAR isn't a precise representation of how many games a player "magically wins all by himself". It's an estimate of their overall value. So if you spread those 30 extra Trout HR and all the other hits and walks (Trout has 110 more total bases than Reddick) and superior defensive play in CF and so on, they
estimate that a team would win 7-8 more games with Trout than with Reddick.
It's just as much of a guess to say 3-4 as it is to say 7-8. We probably have 30 games in which a timely HR would have been the difference and we probably also have 30 games (both won and lost) in which it wouldn't have mattered a bit.