***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

3,736,624 Views | 74451 Replies | Last: 22 days ago by PSully97
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
great sweep this weekend.

now it's a sprint to the best record for the last 2 weeks

AggiEE
How long do you want to ignore this user?
W said:

great sweep this weekend.

now it's a sprint to the best record for the last 2 weeks




Astros play similarly bad teams from here on out

Only difference is Yanks play Rays for a two game series
Farmer1906
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AggiEE said:

W said:

great sweep this weekend.

now it's a sprint to the best record for the last 2 weeks




Astros play similarly bad teams from here on out

Only difference is Yanks play Rays for a two game series


Let's hope Snell & CFM pitch that series.
mathguy86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Baseball-Junkie said:

mathguy86 said:

Magic # at 5. 98 wins and we haven't even clinched. Conceivably we would need 103 just to clinch. Thats crazy.


Go read the ESPN article and thread I posted yesterday on the main MLB board. I would love to hear your thoughts on the methodology and just the article in general.
Bad teams are bad for a reason. And we are very very good. If we had been lucky and avoided major injuries to CC and the mid major ones to George, Jose and if Yordan could have come upon even a month earlier this team would have come close to the Mariners win record.

They did it via WAR analysis. I would have preferred a 10,000 game simulation.
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
mathguy86 said:

Baseball-Junkie said:

mathguy86 said:

Magic # at 5. 98 wins and we haven't even clinched. Conceivably we would need 103 just to clinch. Thats crazy.


Go read the ESPN article and thread I posted yesterday on the main MLB board. I would love to hear your thoughts on the methodology and just the article in general.
Bad teams are bad for a reason. And we are very very good. If we had been lucky and avoided major injuries to CC and the mid major ones to George, Jose and if Yordan could have come upon even a month earlier this team would have come close to the Mariners win record.

They did it via WAR analysis. I would have preferred a 10,000 game simulation.
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
mathguy86 said:

Baseball-Junkie said:

mathguy86 said:

Magic # at 5. 98 wins and we haven't even clinched. Conceivably we would need 103 just to clinch. Thats crazy.


Go read the ESPN article and thread I posted yesterday on the main MLB board. I would love to hear your thoughts on the methodology and just the article in general.
Bad teams are bad for a reason. And we are very very good. If we had been lucky and avoided major injuries to CC and the mid major ones to George, Jose and if Yordan could have come upon even a month earlier this team would have come close to the Mariners win record.

They did it via WAR analysis. I would have preferred a 10,000 game simulation.


I like stats, but I am much more of an eye test guy. There are just too many advanced stats for me to really keep up with, even as a baseball guy, so it's always nice to get a true perspective from the mathematician angle.
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
mathguy86 said:

Baseball-Junkie said:

mathguy86 said:

Magic # at 5. 98 wins and we haven't even clinched. Conceivably we would need 103 just to clinch. Thats crazy.


Go read the ESPN article and thread I posted yesterday on the main MLB board. I would love to hear your thoughts on the methodology and just the article in general.
Bad teams are bad for a reason. And we are very very good. If we had been lucky and avoided major injuries to CC and the mid major ones to George, Jose and if Yordan could have come upon even a month earlier this team would have come close to the Mariners win record.

They did it via WAR analysis. I would have preferred a 10,000 game simulation.

As for Yordan, in a few years I bet you'll be happy the Astros waited as long as they did to call him up. That extra year of club control I bet will be huge.
mathguy86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I agree. And I'm not suggesting we should have brought him up any earlier. But this is a historically good combo of pitching and hitting.
JABQ04
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AggiEE said:

Tucker aint going to let Josh claim all the glory today.

Going to need some names for when Ted/Tucker hits a home run. I'm coming up blank.


I see you weren't around for Preston
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Prosperdick said:

mathguy86 said:

Baseball-Junkie said:

mathguy86 said:

Magic # at 5. 98 wins and we haven't even clinched. Conceivably we would need 103 just to clinch. Thats crazy.


Go read the ESPN article and thread I posted yesterday on the main MLB board. I would love to hear your thoughts on the methodology and just the article in general.
Bad teams are bad for a reason. And we are very very good. If we had been lucky and avoided major injuries to CC and the mid major ones to George, Jose and if Yordan could have come upon even a month earlier this team would have come close to the Mariners win record.

They did it via WAR analysis. I would have preferred a 10,000 game simulation.

As for Yordan, in a few years I bet you'll be happy the Astros waited as long as they did to call him up. That extra year of club control I bet will be huge.


I am sure after his zillionth homerun and crushing MLB, he will be thrilled to play for pennies of his value. Great plan in theory, not so great in practice. See Zeke and what true leverage buys you.
BMX Bandit
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I predict it won't matter. They will sign him to long term deal by 2021 season
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BMX Bandit said:

I predict it won't matter. They will sign him to long term deal by 2021 season


I will agree with that.... It does buy them time, to make the deal right, if he keeps this up. The Astros do reward performance.
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
But that does negate the control non-sense.

Edit - If someone is a mega star, just call them up and let them nut up. I do understand that we didn't need him early and the money/contract behind it. I also don't think that Jeff and the boys ever thought Yordan would perform as he has, but there is only one way to know the truth.
BMX Bandit
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Not sure I follow.

There's no guarantee Yordan will want to deal. Correa said "no thanks"

There was no reason to call to Yordan any earlier than they did.
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BMX Bandit said:

Not sure I follow.

There's no guarantee Yordan will want to deal. Correa said "no thanks"

There was no reason to call to Yordan any earlier than they did.


Well, we might already have the best record locked up if we called him up sooner.

Not everyone is Bregman and wants to get a deal done early. With that said, to be grossly underpaid doesn't bode well for the pysche. There is a balance in all of this.
BMX Bandit
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Quote:

Well, we might already have the best record locked up if we called him up sooner.


100% conjecture.
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

Well, we might already have the best record locked up if we called him up sooner.


100% conjecture.



That's BS. I am not the WAR or advanced analytics guy, but I know he's been keeping up or out pacing most of his RR stats. Those at bats in theory probably would have won us three more, and in reality, probably five or six more games.
Harry Dunne
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

Well, we might already have the best record locked up if we called him up sooner.


100% conjecture.

By using the word "might", he is acknowledging that it's conjecture. Other than that, great post.

BMX Bandit
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Except he called saying it's conjecture "complete BS"

So sorry about your fail post. But cool pic
BMX Bandit
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Baseball-Junkie said:

BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

Well, we might already have the best record locked up if we called him up sooner.


100% conjecture.



That's BS. I am not the WAR or advanced analytics guy, but I know he's been keeping up or out pacing most of his RR stats. Those at bats in theory probably would have won us three more, and in reality, probably five or six more games.


Why not 7? If you just making up numbers, go for 9 I say.


There's simply no way of knowing what he would ave done and in what situation. Keeping the leverage on future deal was more important than maybe winning a few more games
agsquirrel97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Having him under team control allows negotiation for the early deal, if we had one less year of team control do you think we get Bregman for $100MM? Furthermore, if Yordan doesn't pan out, team control gives you more trade value.

Waiting to bring him up until we had injuries means we didn't have to send down Jake, Kemp, Tyler? All of them were out of options and would have just been "cut" meaning we didn't one of our trades done.
willie wonka
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
BMX Bandit said:

Not sure I follow.

There's no guarantee Yordan will want to deal. Correa said "no thanks"

There was no reason to call to Yordan any earlier than they did.


I'm glad Correa said no thanks.
Harry Dunne
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BMX Bandit said:

Except he called saying it's conjecture "complete BS"

So sorry about your fail post. But cool pic
Maybe neither of you know what conjecture means and I used the wrong pic.

Silent For Too Long
How long do you want to ignore this user?
agsquirrel97 said:

Having him under team control allows negotiation for the early deal, if we had one less year of team control do you think we get Bregman for $100MM? Furthermore, if Yordan doesn't pan out, team control gives you more trade value.

Waiting to bring him up until we had injuries means we didn't have to send down Jake, Kemp, Tyler? All of them were out of options and would have just been "cut" meaning we didn't one of our trades done.


Yeah. I agree with what squirrel and Bandit were saying and would add this, promising prospects disappoint at the big league level all the time. That talent, while enticing, is never guaranteed. That's why you have to smart on how your bring them along.

Also, though on the flip side, he's 22, so it's not like that sat on him for years in the minors. They basically let him progress as fast as he was willing too, which was pretty blazing fast.

I think they played there cards just right and were awarded one of the most enticing gems in MLB history. Forever in baseball lore people will snicker how JL traded Josh Fields for the icing on the cake of what was already one of the most stacked decks in baseball history.

Sorry, rambling a bit. It's just fun to type that.
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
here's the million dollar question...will the new CBA (and its likely shortened path to free agency) apply to players that debuted prior to the 2021 CBA?

for example...the way things stand now the Astros have control of Yordan thru the 2025 season (I think). What if the new CBA allows a player to become a free agent after just 5 years of service? Or maybe just 4 years
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
speaking of Yordan and Tucker...

it's amazing how their performances in 2019 have shifted so much of the leverage to the Astros front office...with regard to the five 2020 free agents (Springer, Brantley, Reddick, Marisnick, Yuli)

at this point only 2 of those 5 may be playing for Houston in 2021
mathguy86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
W said:

speaking of Yordan and Tucker...

it's amazing how their performances in 2019 have shifted so much of the leverage to the Astros front office...with regard to the five 2020 free agents (Springer, Brantley, Reddick, Marisnick, Yuli)

After they pay George handsomely, at this point only 2 of those 5 1 of those remaining 4 may be playing for Houston in 2021
FIFY
iamtheglove
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Prosperdick said:

mathguy86 said:

Baseball-Junkie said:

mathguy86 said:

Magic # at 5. 98 wins and we haven't even clinched. Conceivably we would need 103 just to clinch. Thats crazy.


Go read the ESPN article and thread I posted yesterday on the main MLB board. I would love to hear your thoughts on the methodology and just the article in general.
Bad teams are bad for a reason. And we are very very good. If we had been lucky and avoided major injuries to CC and the mid major ones to George, Jose and if Yordan could have come upon even a month earlier this team would have come close to the Mariners win record.

They did it via WAR analysis. I would have preferred a 10,000 game simulation.

As for Yordan, in a few years I bet you'll be happy the Astros waited as long as they did to call him up. That extra year of club control I bet will be huge.

Agree with this. The Astros have been designed to create a steady flow of young, controllable talent to help them sign high end talent on the open market (JV, bregs, Tuve, Brantley). That controllable talent gives us a shot at signing George as well. The players union signed the CBA and the smartest GMs understood the value of an great farm system because of it. BTW I am halfway through the book Astroball about JL and his strategy to build the Astros. Fascinating read.
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
iamtheglove said:

Prosperdick said:

mathguy86 said:

Baseball-Junkie said:

mathguy86 said:

Magic # at 5. 98 wins and we haven't even clinched. Conceivably we would need 103 just to clinch. Thats crazy.


Go read the ESPN article and thread I posted yesterday on the main MLB board. I would love to hear your thoughts on the methodology and just the article in general.
Bad teams are bad for a reason. And we are very very good. If we had been lucky and avoided major injuries to CC and the mid major ones to George, Jose and if Yordan could have come upon even a month earlier this team would have come close to the Mariners win record.

They did it via WAR analysis. I would have preferred a 10,000 game simulation.

As for Yordan, in a few years I bet you'll be happy the Astros waited as long as they did to call him up. That extra year of club control I bet will be huge.

Agree with this. The Astros have been designed to create a steady flow of young, controllable talent to help them sign high end talent on the open market (JV, bregs, Tuve, Brantley). That controllable talent gives us a shot at signing George as well. The players union signed the CBA and the smartest GMs understood the value of an great farm system because of it. BTW I am halfway through the book Astroball about JL and his strategy to build the Astros. Fascinating read.

Great book.
BMo
How long do you want to ignore this user?
What is the best way to sell my electronic tickets to Wednesday's game? May want to though my chance to see Cole pitch.

Would a game be cancelled due to flooding?
suburban cowboy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
How much do you want and where are the seats?
tjholley16
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
so best case scenario when is the earliest we can clinch? Friday?

If we win the next 3 and the As lose their next 2
Ag13
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
BMo said:

What is the best way to sell my electronic tickets to Wednesday's game? May want to though my chance to see Cole pitch.

Would a game be cancelled due to flooding?
Well it's against the Rangers, so it may be moved to Tampa Bay
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Good opportunity to clinch three straight years of 100 wins against the Rangers on Wednesday
mathguy86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ag13 said:

BMo said:

What is the best way to sell my electronic tickets to Wednesday's game? May want to though my chance to see Cole pitch.

Would a game be cancelled due to flooding?
Well it's against the Rangers, so it may be moved to Tampa Bay


Or just played in Arlington.