At least the bats came to play.

Don't worry... tomorrow Yankees are throwing Paxton

Paxton? Never heard of her.

He's had our number for awhile, I think he's due for a stinker and we run him out before the 3rd!

Sounds like the same problem we have

Preach brother. If only Alvarez could play 1B... I pray we make a move for one at the deadline.

bearkatag15 said:

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Preach brother. If only Alvarez could play 1B... I pray we make a move for one at the deadline.

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Can't belueve Lunhow let Encarnancion go to the Yankees...would have been nice to have a big bat at 1B

if this ends up a 1-6 or 0-7 roadtrip, Luhnow will have to do something

W said:

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if this ends up a 1-6 or 0-7 roadtrip, Luhnow will have to do something

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I'm honestly not optimistic. He'll stand pat and wait for Springer, Diaz, and Correa to return.

Here's an idea.. don't throw fastballs belt high to the majority of the Yankees.

We avoid doing that, the Yankees only score 3-4 runs tonight.

That's five in a row. They're half way to wiping out one of the 10-game winning streaks. Somebody better right this ship soon.

Ag_07 said:

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However, I'm a bit disappointed in how some of our young arms have developed. What once looked like an abundance of riches actually somewhat concerns me.

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Totally agree

Deluxe said:

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Ag_07 said:

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However, I'm a bit disappointed in how some of our young arms have developed. What once looked like an abundance of riches actually somewhat concerns me.

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Totally agree

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This is the biggest Miss for me this year too.

Between JB, James, Whitley, Martin, and Framer we can't find one legit rotation arm? Add in McHigh ****ting the bed and the rotation which looked he still be solid is the weakness of the team. That and health.

It's crazy. When you look at our top 13 pitchers right now...

JV
Cole
Miley
Peacock
McHugh
LMJ
Framber
Devo (being generous here)
Smith
Rondon
Harris
Pressly
Osuna

Luhnow has had seven drafts and only one of his draft picks is on that list (LMJ), though he did sign Framber straight out of the Dominican. Most of those guys are vets who we signed/traded for and then re-tooled. Luhnow seems to have a knack for finding those guys, but struggles drafting/developing.

To me, the drop off after those 13 right now is enormous. That's where our lack of depth is killer. When we have three hurt for an extended period of time (LMJ obviously, McHugh and Smith), we're replacing them with guys who aren't major league ready.

James has flashes but too inconsistent to be reliable in close games. Cio/Armenteros/Martin/Guduan all face-planted pretty hard when they got their opportunities.

One thing that's interesting to me is that we used 3 of our 4 top picks on position players in 2018 and all 4 top picks in 2019 on position players. Maybe we've accepted that our best route to find pitching is via acquisition (JV/Cole types or underutilized veteran guys).

One thing that's concerning to me is that about half of the list above are free agents after this year. I think we were expecting our young guys to fill the void but that seems like a stretch now. Will be very interesting to see how Whitley does when he gets right.

How many drafted pitchers have been shipped in trades, and are any of them contributing to major league teams?

Deluxe said:

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It's crazy. When you look at our top 13 pitchers right now...

JV
Cole
Miley
Peacock
McHugh
LMJ
Framber
Devo (being generous here)
Smith
Rondon
Harris
Pressly
Osuna

Luhnow has had seven drafts and only one of his draft picks is on that list (LMJ), though he did sign Framber straight out of the Dominican. Most of those guys are vets who we signed/traded for and then re-tooled. Luhnow seems to have a knack for finding those guys, but struggles drafting/developing.

To me, the drop off after those 13 right now is enormous. That's where our lack of depth is killer. When we have three hurt for an extended period of time (LMJ obviously, McHugh and Smith), we're replacing them with guys who aren't major league ready.

James has flashes but too inconsistent to be reliable in close games. Cio/Armenteros/Martin/Guduan all face-planted pretty hard when they got their opportunities.

One thing that's interesting to me is that we used 3 of our 4 top picks on position players in 2018 and all 4 top picks in 2019 on position players. Maybe we've accepted that our best route to find pitching is via acquisition (JV/Cole types or underutilized veteran guys).

One thing that's concerning to me is that about half of the list above are free agents after this year. I think we were expecting our young guys to fill the void but that seems like a stretch now. Will be very interesting to see how Whitley does when he gets right.

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I think some of our bullpen weakness can be traced to the fact that we've had to convert a bunch of middle-relief bullpen guys to rotation pieces because we refuse to sign FA starters long term and we can't develop starters in the minors. Peacock and McHugh were key middle relief pieces in 2017 in the playoffs, and Framber and James were to a certain extent last year during the season (James in the playoffs). If James hadn't been hurt in spring training, they would have tried to put him into the rotation too. The Astros are masters at developing and tuning starters, but Pressley (and maybe Harris) aside, that just doesn't seem to translate to the bullpen. We have very few true bullpen arms in the minors, and I think the trade for Gomez/Fiers really hurt us because we lost Hader. Can you imagine having Hader in our bullpen right now?

We need reliable middle relief (RH and LH). When McHugh and Joe Smith come back, I think they can combine for some of that. Hopefully that forces Devo down to the minors because he's ineffective now that everyone can read his changeup. We need a reliable LHP long relief / specialist guy in the bullpen, and I hope Lunhow finds someone from the outside to fill that role.

redline248 said:

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How many drafted pitchers have been shipped in trades, and are any of them contributing to major league teams?

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When I looked the other day, Mengden was the only notable one. Hader was picked up from Baltimore in the Bud Norris trade. S/o to anyone who wants to check my work.

James was a late round flier, but I think James, LMJ and Mengden are the only Luhnow pitching draftees to spend any meaningful time in the majors.

I guess my question is how many farm systems really produce legit rotation arms? Not just 1 or two, but multiple at a time. And how many actually produce elite level arms with staying power?

Point being, there are only so many out there who are elite - not every farm system is going to produce even 1 elite pitcher. There just are't that many JVs, Coles, Scherzer's out there. We have to take the broader perspective when evaluating the pitching the Astros farm system has developed against the rest of the league. Are we really that far off?

Beat40 said:

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I guess my question is how many farm systems really produce legit rotation arms? Not just 1 or two, but multiple at a time. And how many actually produce elite level arms with staying power?

Point being, there are only so many out there who are elite - not every farm system is going to produce even 1 elite pitcher. There just are't that many JVs, Coles, Scherzer's out there. We have to take the broader perspective when evaluating the pitching the Astros farm system has developed against the rest of the league. Are we really that far off?

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I don't think the complaint is that we haven't drafted/developed elite pitchers. Those are like hitting lotto tickets to some extent. I think the concern is that we haven't drafted/developed many guys who are even contributors at the major league level.

We have six veteran pitchers who will be free agents after this year and no one at AAA is ready to step in at this point. Maybe that will change as the season progresses. It would be nice to let Smith/Rondon walk, replace them internally and use the $12 million in savings to help lock up Springer and Cole but that doesn't seem to be happening.

As deluxe said, it's more about major league capable guys. I just spent too much time looking at pitchers drafted since 2012. I skipped Rodgers and Martin, who both looked like crap in their limited time this year, and skipped Whitley, who I think has been hurt. I only looked at guys drafted in the first 5 or 6 rounds, and most or all of them have been traded or are currently sucking the minors.

Previous poster mentioned Mengden, and as far as I can tell he's the only one that has stuck in the bigs.

I have no idea if there is a similar rate among other teams.

redline248 said:

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As deluxe said, it's more about major league capable guys. I just spent too much time looking at pitchers drafted since 2012. I skipped Rodgers and Martin, who both looked like crap in their limited time this year, and skipped Whitley, who I think has been hurt. I only looked at guys drafted in the first 5 or 6 rounds, and most or all of them have been traded or are currently sucking the minors.

Previous poster mentioned Mengden, and as far as I can tell he's the only one that has stuck in the bigs.

I have no idea if there is a similar rate among other teams.

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Folty, Lyles, Musgrove?

3B Paul 97 said:

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redline248 said:

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As deluxe said, it's more about major league capable guys. I just spent too much time looking at pitchers drafted since 2012. I skipped Rodgers and Martin, who both looked like crap in their limited time this year, and skipped Whitley, who I think has been hurt. I only looked at guys drafted in the first 5 or 6 rounds, and most or all of them have been traded or are currently sucking the minors.

Previous poster mentioned Mengden, and as far as I can tell he's the only one that has stuck in the bigs.

I have no idea if there is a similar rate among other teams.

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Folty, Lyles, Musgrove?

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Musgrove Lunhow got in a trade with Toronto

Folty was drafted in 2010 by Houston. Lunhow started in Dec. 2011 with Houston

Lyles was drafted in 2008 by Houston

Beat40 said:

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I guess my question is how many farm systems really produce legit rotation arms? Not just 1 or two, but multiple at a time. And how many actually produce elite level arms with staying power?

Point being, there are only so many out there who are elite - not every farm system is going to produce even 1 elite pitcher. There just are't that many JVs, Coles, Scherzer's out there. We have to take the broader perspective when evaluating the pitching the Astros farm system has developed against the rest of the league. Are we really that far off?

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I agree with this. Not too many teams around the league have staffs loaded with guys that came up in their own orgs.

Looking back, of the Atlanta Braves big 3, only Glavine was drafted by the organization. Smoltz came via trade and Maddux was a FA. Conversely the bulk of their position player core during that era (Chipper, Javy Lopez, Klesko, David Justice, Andruw Jones, Rafael Furcal) were drafted or signed directly by ATL.

You do have to draft and develop well in order to have enough cheap guys under team control to afford the JVs of the world, but I consider identifying under the radar FAs that can come in and help the team right away to be maybe even better than drafting and having to wait for guys to develop, especially pitchers that typically take a bit longer to blossom.

Harry Dunne said:

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Beat40 said:

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I guess my question is how many farm systems really produce legit rotation arms? Not just 1 or two, but multiple at a time. And how many actually produce elite level arms with staying power?

Point being, there are only so many out there who are elite - not every farm system is going to produce even 1 elite pitcher. There just are't that many JVs, Coles, Scherzer's out there. We have to take the broader perspective when evaluating the pitching the Astros farm system has developed against the rest of the league. Are we really that far off?

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I agree with this. Not too many teams around the league have staffs loaded with guys that came up in their own orgs.

Looking back, of the Atlanta Braves big 3, only Glavine was drafted by the organization. Smoltz came via trade and Maddux was a FA. Conversely the bulk of their position player core during that era (Chipper, Javy Lopez, Klesko, David Justice, Andruw Jones, Rafael Furcal) were drafted or signed directly by ATL.

You do have to draft and develop well in order to have enough cheap guys under team control to afford the JVs of the world, but I consider identifying under the radar FAs that can come in and help the team right away to be maybe even better than drafting and having to wait for guys to develop, especially pitchers that typically take a bit longer to blossom.

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There's another thing I wonder as well. We draft a lot of college kids with the thought they can make it to the pro's quicker. We have drafted pitchers this way in addition to the position players. I wonder what affect that has on a pitchers MLB development. Does the organization have to, simply put it, rebuild the pitcher out of college for the way the Astros want their pitchers to pitch versus if we drafted younger guys and could ingrain the theories younger with more time to work on that approach?

Probably has very little impact on college versus not, but I wish there was a way to tell.

At the end of the day, serviceable pitchers are just harder to come by, and I think every organization's fans feel the same way. I also agree with you that you look at most team's rotations/bullpens and they are not generally stocked full of guys drafted by the organization.

How about making some roster moves that will actually help us. Guduan? Really? Haven't we seen enough of this guy?

Conversely, what other pitchers have we called up that have been any better?

I don't disagree with you, though