***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

3,777,670 Views | 74451 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by PSully97
bullard21k
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dlance said:

bullard21k said:

BMX Bandit said:

bullard21k said:

MisterFurious said:

txag614 said:

This bullpen could very well cost the Astros a WS. So unreliable.


Says every team this year

Yeah not the Yankees. Those guys go like 6 deep that are all reliable and all good


And their starters suck.

Agreed just stating that there is every other bullpen in the league and then the Yankees pen.

They clearly will rely on them heavily in post season but they are super deep


I recall another bullpen in 2017 that the same was said about.

I know your busy kidding but the only people that were saying the Astros bullpen in 2017 was deep and extremely good heading into post season was stat nerds and Astros homers. Giles was melting down, Devo was bad, rondon was left off the roster etc. The last 2 months of season it was clear out BP wasn't as good as the overall season numbers indicated and we had problems heading into October.

Yankees have Chapman, Britton and hale which I don't think the 17' Astros had anyone remotely on those guys level...and dellin betances will be back soon as well.

Now as discussed their starters are sometimes lucky to get through 5 innings so they better have a solid BP bc they will be relying on them to eat 4-5 innings some nights
Beat40
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bullard21k said:

dlance said:

bullard21k said:

BMX Bandit said:

bullard21k said:

MisterFurious said:

txag614 said:

This bullpen could very well cost the Astros a WS. So unreliable.


Says every team this year

Yeah not the Yankees. Those guys go like 6 deep that are all reliable and all good


And their starters suck.

Agreed just stating that there is every other bullpen in the league and then the Yankees pen.

They clearly will rely on them heavily in post season but they are super deep


I recall another bullpen in 2017 that the same was said about.

I know your busy kidding but the only people that were saying the Astros bullpen in 2017 was deep and extremely good heading into post season was stat nerds and Astros homers. Giles was melting down, Devo was bad, rondon was left off the roster etc. The last 2 months of season it was clear out BP wasn't as good as the overall season numbers indicated and we had problems heading into October.

Yankees have Chapman, Britton and hale which I don't think the 17' Astros had anyone remotely on those guys level...and dellin betances will be back soon as well.

Now as discussed their starters are sometimes lucky to get through 5 innings so they better have a solid BP bc they will be relying on them to eat 4-5 innings some nights


He could actually be talking about both the Yankees and Dodgers bullpens in 2017. And you remember how that went.
bullard21k
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Beat40 said:

bullard21k said:

dlance said:

bullard21k said:

BMX Bandit said:

bullard21k said:

MisterFurious said:

txag614 said:

This bullpen could very well cost the Astros a WS. So unreliable.


Says every team this year

Yeah not the Yankees. Those guys go like 6 deep that are all reliable and all good


And their starters suck.

Agreed just stating that there is every other bullpen in the league and then the Yankees pen.

They clearly will rely on them heavily in post season but they are super deep


I recall another bullpen in 2017 that the same was said about.

I know your busy kidding but the only people that were saying the Astros bullpen in 2017 was deep and extremely good heading into post season was stat nerds and Astros homers. Giles was melting down, Devo was bad, rondon was left off the roster etc. The last 2 months of season it was clear out BP wasn't as good as the overall season numbers indicated and we had problems heading into October.

Yankees have Chapman, Britton and hale which I don't think the 17' Astros had anyone remotely on those guys level...and dellin betances will be back soon as well.

Now as discussed their starters are sometimes lucky to get through 5 innings so they better have a solid BP bc they will be relying on them to eat 4-5 innings some nights


He could actually be talking about both the Yankees and Dodgers bullpens in 2017. And you remember how that went.

Good point. Still don't think either of those are on the level of this years.

However their starters are significantly worse.
mathguy86
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I went perusing some + stats this evening. How dominant have JV and Cole been?

As with all + stats, 100 is league average, 120 is 20% above that and 80 is 20 below. Stats are for AL.

K/9+ : Cole 152(1) JV 137 (2)
BB/9+: JV 50 (1), Cole 66 (5)
K/BB+: JV 256 (1), Cole 232 (3)
K%+: Cole 168 (1), JV 156 (3)
BB%+: JV 57 (2), Cole 73 (T9)
AVE+: JV 65 (1), Cole 78 (2)
WHIP+: JV 57 (1), Cole 71 (2)
BABIP+: JV 68 (1), Cole 95 (8)
LOB%+: JV 125 (1), Cole 113 (T2). JV has a LOB% of 90%. the next closest is 81%. Thats insane.


- stats show how much below you are where being lower is good
ERA-: JV 58 (1), Cole 64 (2)
FIP-: Cole 63 (T2), JV 75 (T6). Even with the HR's they have both given up they are at the top of the heap
xFIP-: Cole 58 (1), JV 74 (4)

And of course JV leads in IP. Cole has 2 less starts and he's roughly that amount of IP behind.

Enjoy it boys. You are looking at the two best pitchers in the AL. And its not even close.
Andyzipp
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In 2017, Rondon was playing for the Cubs, Devenski was an All-star and allowed 24 earned runs in 80.2 innings (2.68 ERA) before the playoffs, and Giles allowed 16 runs in 62.2 innings (2.30 ERA).

Edited to add that Devenski was better in the second half of 2017 (2.57 ERA) than the first half. Giles was the same (1.19)

All of the Astros bullpen issues in 2017 happened once the playoffs started, but they were considered very good/great prior to the ALDS with Boston.
AggiEE
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Andyzipp said:

In 2017, Rondon was playing for the Cubs, Devenski was an All-star and allowed 24 earned runs in 80.2 innings (2.68 ERA) before the playoffs, and Giles allowed 16 runs in 62.2 innings (2.30 ERA).

All of the Astros bullpen issues in 2017 happened once the playoffs started, but they were considered very good/great prior to the ALDS with Boston.


How did Devo regress so badly?
Beat40
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Maybe not. But the dodgers bullpen hadn't been scored upon the entire postseason until they faced us in the WS.

Really not trying to be too argumentative, just trying to make the point that good offense can and will get to a bullpen when they face them 4, 5, 6 times in a short time span.

Heck, probably the best closer of all time gave up a walk off World Series series winner.

Looking forward to how this post season plays out!
bullard21k
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Andyzipp said:

In 2017, Rondon was playing for the Cubs, Devenski was an All-star and allowed 24 earned runs in 80.2 innings (2.68 ERA) before the playoffs, and Giles allowed 16 runs in 62.2 innings (2.30 ERA).

All of the Astros bullpen issues in 2017 happened once the playoffs started, but they were considered very good/great prior to the ALDS with Boston.

Yes i was referencing 2018 not 17 that was my mistake
bullard21k
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Beat40 said:

Maybe not. But the dodgers bullpen hadn't been scored upon the entire postseason until they faced us in the WS.

Really not trying to be too argumentative, just trying to make the point that good offense can and will get to a bullpen when they face them 4, 5, 6 times in a short time span.

Heck, probably the best closer of all time gave up a walk off World Series series winner.

Looking forward to how this post season plays out!

Hey I hope so. I originally was just responding to the person saying everybody hates their bullpen. I do think yanks BP is quite a but better than everyone else's that will make the post season. They can be hit but if we get into a late inning battle of the bullpens how we are currently structured I'm concerned. Osuna needs to pull his head out

Bregxit
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bullard21k said:

Beat40 said:

bullard21k said:

dlance said:

bullard21k said:

BMX Bandit said:

bullard21k said:

MisterFurious said:

txag614 said:

This bullpen could very well cost the Astros a WS. So unreliable.


Says every team this year

Yeah not the Yankees. Those guys go like 6 deep that are all reliable and all good


And their starters suck.

Agreed just stating that there is every other bullpen in the league and then the Yankees pen.

They clearly will rely on them heavily in post season but they are super deep


I recall another bullpen in 2017 that the same was said about.

I know your busy kidding but the only people that were saying the Astros bullpen in 2017 was deep and extremely good heading into post season was stat nerds and Astros homers. Giles was melting down, Devo was bad, rondon was left off the roster etc. The last 2 months of season it was clear out BP wasn't as good as the overall season numbers indicated and we had problems heading into October.

Yankees have Chapman, Britton and hale which I don't think the 17' Astros had anyone remotely on those guys level...and dellin betances will be back soon as well.

Now as discussed their starters are sometimes lucky to get through 5 innings so they better have a solid BP bc they will be relying on them to eat 4-5 innings some nights


He could actually be talking about both the Yankees and Dodgers bullpens in 2017. And you remember how that went.

Good point. Still don't think either of those are on the level of this years.

However their starters are significantly worse.
Beat40 is correct. I was referring to the Dodgers. They were being touted as one of the deepest, most locked down bullpens of all time and our guys destroyed them. Why? Because the Dodgers relied on them too much. Just like the Yankees will with theirs.
mathguy86
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Holy crap. I just saw this on MLB.com

According to Elias, the Astros are the first team to have pitchers with at least 14 strikeouts in consecutive games since the mound was moved to 60 feet, 6 inches in 1893.

Bregxit
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mathguy86 said:

Holy crap. I just saw this on MLB.com

According to Elias, the Astros are the first team to have pitchers with at least 14 strikeouts in consecutive games since the mound was moved to 60 feet, 6 inches in 1893.


Ok mathguy, what is the probability of having that not happen in the last 126 years?
mathguy86
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We play Seattle and JV goes Saturday, Cole Sunday. I'm thinking its got a 56.86% chance of happening a week from now.
willjohnathan
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bullard21k said:

MisterFurious said:

txag614 said:

This bullpen could very well cost the Astros a WS. So unreliable.


Says every team this year

Yeah not the Yankees. Those guys go like 6 deep that are all reliable and all good
It sucks having an unreliable bullpen because you feel like you let a lot of wins slip away, but I would much rather have good starters over a shutdown bullpen. It just seems like relievers are great until they aren't. Late in the season, or in a 7 game series, the hitters get famiilar with them and are able to break them or at least put some dents in them.
Buck Compton
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Now you're revising history.

The Dodger's bullpen was THE primary NL storyline in 2017. Jansen was un-hittable, all that jazz. To be fair to them, they only allowed 3 runs in 29 innings of work before the WS (all three in one game of the NLDS). They didn't allow a run to the Cubs in the NLCS in 17 innings of work.

That being said, relievers are generally less effective than in the regular season over a 7 game series when you get to see them that much more often in a row. This would even be exacerbated by terrible starters.

Independent of the impacts of a 7-game playoff series, here are our numbers vs the Yankees starters and bullpen this year in 7 games:

Series 1 IN HOU at full health:
Starters: 13 IP, 2 HR, 8 R, 1.692 WHIP, 15 Ks
Bullpen: 11 IP, 0 HR, 10 R, 2.634 WHIP, 12 Ks

Series 2 in NY with both Correa and Springer out and White and Stassi in:
(including a Johnny Wholestaff game by them that I put all in bullpen stats)
Starters: 16 IP, 4 HR, 11 R, 1.750 WHIP, 10 Ks
Bullpen: 21 IP, 6 HR, 10 R, 1.571 WHIP, 18 Ks

That means collectively their bullpen has a 5.63 ERA and 1.844 WHIP against us this year in 32 IP, including two blown saves. Their starters have a 5.90 ERA and 1.724 WHIP.

Nothing about the New York pitching staff scares me in a 7 game series.
bullard21k
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Buck Compton said:

Now you're revising history.

The Dodger's bullpen was THE primary NL storyline in 2017. Jansen was un-hittable, all that jazz. To be fair to them, they only allowed 3 runs in 29 innings of work before the WS (all three in one game of the NLDS). They didn't allow a run to the Cubs in the NLCS in 17 innings of work.

That being said, relievers are generally less effective than in the regular season over a 7 game series when you get to see them that much more often in a row. This would even be exacerbated by terrible starters.

Independent of the impacts of a 7-game playoff series, here are our numbers vs the Yankees starters and bullpen this year in 7 games:

Series 1 IN HOU at full health:
Starters: 13 IP, 2 HR, 8 R, 1.692 WHIP, 15 Ks
Bullpen: 11 IP, 0 HR, 10 R, 2.634 WHIP, 12 Ks

Series 2 in NY with both Correa and Springer out and White and Stassi in:
(including a Johnny Wholestaff game by them that I put all in bullpen stats)
Starters: 16 IP, 4 HR, 11 R, 1.750 WHIP, 10 Ks
Bullpen: 21 IP, 6 HR, 10 R, 1.571 WHIP, 18 Ks

That means collectively their bullpen has a 5.63 ERA and 1.844 WHIP against us this year in 32 IP, including two blown saves. Their starters have a 5.90 ERA and 1.724 WHIP.

Nothing about the New York pitching staff scares me in a 7 game series.

I do think some of our success we had was in part bc roberts is a poor manager and was inserting a new pitcher every 1/3 of an inning. Never seen somebody burn through relievers at that pace.

Again I'm not saying the current Yankees BP will have success in the post season I was simply responding to the initial person that said everyone thinks their bullpens are bad. I've already mentioned even if their BP is locked down that still doesn't help the first 5 innings of each game. But if we are tied and get into a bullpen battle I don't feel confident late personally

Let's just score 10 runs every game so it doesn't matter that sounds more fun
Philip J Fry
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We won 2, maybe 3 games in the WS just because of our Game 2 victory. Roberts overextended his bullpen in that game and it spilled over. Spilled over in tired arms and spilled over by giving us a chance to get familiar with them.
Ag_07
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The Yankees BP is no better than ours. They're better in some categories and we're better in some.

We actually have a better in ERA (3.79 vs 4.13) and a better LOB% (77.5 to 747.7%). They've got us in FIP, WAR, and K/9.

So to me the thought that they're so much better and more reliable than us is fake news. I'd say we're about neck and neck and if anything they're slightly better.

BPs in general this year are pretty ho-hum. Not one stands out and they're all a bit iffy. Hell our BP ERA is 2nd in the AL. While they're not shut down auto-out good like we'd all like relatively speaking they're just fine.
Prosperdick
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bullard21k said:

Buck Compton said:

Now you're revising history.

The Dodger's bullpen was THE primary NL storyline in 2017. Jansen was un-hittable, all that jazz. To be fair to them, they only allowed 3 runs in 29 innings of work before the WS (all three in one game of the NLDS). They didn't allow a run to the Cubs in the NLCS in 17 innings of work.

That being said, relievers are generally less effective than in the regular season over a 7 game series when you get to see them that much more often in a row. This would even be exacerbated by terrible starters.

Independent of the impacts of a 7-game playoff series, here are our numbers vs the Yankees starters and bullpen this year in 7 games:

Series 1 IN HOU at full health:
Starters: 13 IP, 2 HR, 8 R, 1.692 WHIP, 15 Ks
Bullpen: 11 IP, 0 HR, 10 R, 2.634 WHIP, 12 Ks

Series 2 in NY with both Correa and Springer out and White and Stassi in:
(including a Johnny Wholestaff game by them that I put all in bullpen stats)
Starters: 16 IP, 4 HR, 11 R, 1.750 WHIP, 10 Ks
Bullpen: 21 IP, 6 HR, 10 R, 1.571 WHIP, 18 Ks

That means collectively their bullpen has a 5.63 ERA and 1.844 WHIP against us this year in 32 IP, including two blown saves. Their starters have a 5.90 ERA and 1.724 WHIP.

Nothing about the New York pitching staff scares me in a 7 game series.

I do think some of our success we had was in part bc roberts is a poor manager and was inserting a new pitcher every 1/3 of an inning. Never seen somebody burn through relievers at that pace.

Again I'm not saying the current Yankees BP will have success in the post season I was simply responding to the initial person that said everyone thinks their bullpens are bad. I've already mentioned even if their BP is locked down that still doesn't help the first 5 innings of each game. But if we are tied and get into a bullpen battle I don't feel confident late personally

Let's just score 10 runs every game so it doesn't matter that sounds more fun
Not only did Roberts put in a new pitcher every 1/3 of an inning, he would use the same guys over and over...Morrow's arm was spent when he brought him into game 5 and thank God he did.
college of AG
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Bullpen guys usually only have 2, maybe 3 pitches. If it is a short series, fine.. as it drags on, hitters get familiar with those bullpen arms and things get crazy.

If anyone trots their starter out for 4-5 innings night after night, they better hope they lock it down early, because game 5-7 could get away from them in late innings.
bearkatag15
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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bearkatag15 said:




That's ****ing cool
mathguy86
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That release point is the same. Wow.
Prosperdick
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

bearkatag15 said:




That's ****ing cool
And amazing...please back up the Brinks truck Crane, think of all the sell-out ring promotions!!
PSully97
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astros4545 said:

Deluxe said:

Impressed with Osuna picking up the W today. He looked good.

And when's it time to worry about Cole? Back to back games without picking up a W.


Makes you really appreciate what Jeriome Robertson brought to the table about 12 years ago
I had not thought about ole Jeriome in a long time! Worst 15-game winner in history? Despite having a negative WAR that season they were able to flip him to the Indians for Willy Taveras and Luke Scott.

Trading up in '04 from Jeriome Robertson and Ron Villone to Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte probably rivals Doug Fister and Mike Fiers --> JV and CFM.
Deluxe
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bearkatag15 said:


I mean that's just sick
Deluxe
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Prosperdick said:

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:




That's ****ing cool
And amazing...please back up the Brinks truck Crane, think of all the sell-out ring promotions!!
How to clear max money for the man:

Trade Reddick ($13 million) and replace with Tucker (minimum)
Trade Correa (~$10 million in 2020, ~$20 million in 2021) and replace with Toro (minimum)
Let Smith, Rondon and McHugh walk ($18.3 million off the books) and replace with internal guys/cheap FA vets
willjohnathan
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Ag_07 said:

The Yankees BP is no better than ours. They're better in some categories and we're better in some.

We actually have a better in ERA (3.79 vs 4.13) and a better LOB% (77.5 to 747.7%). They've got us in FIP, WAR, and K/9.

So to me the thought that they're so much better and more reliable than us is fake news. I'd say we're about neck and neck and if anything they're slightly better.

BPs in general this year are pretty ho-hum. Not one stands out and they're all a bit iffy. Hell our BP ERA is 2nd in the AL. While they're not shut down auto-out good like we'd all like relatively speaking they're just fine.


Our bullpen was all world for the first half of the season, but has fallen off a cliff since. More importantly it's our high leverage guys that have had the problems the second half of the season. So while those guys numbers might not be bad, it's there recent numbers that are worrisome and for an extended stretch at that as well.

Except for Devo... He has sucked all year.
Philip J Fry
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Deluxe said:

Prosperdick said:

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:




That's ****ing cool
And amazing...please back up the Brinks truck Crane, think of all the sell-out ring promotions!!
How to clear max money for the man:

Trade Reddick ($13 million) and replace with Tucker (minimum)
Trade Correa (~$10 million in 2020, ~$20 million in 2021) and replace with Toro (minimum)
Let Smith, Rondon and McHugh walk ($18.3 million off the books) and replace with internal guys/cheap FA vets


Id definitely take Cole over Correa every day of the week. Carlos has proven himself way too injury prone for the money.
Farmer1906
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Ace Comparision

Verlander
IP - 193.0 (1 in MLB)
ERA - 2.56 (4)
WHIP - 0.77 (1)
FIP - 3.42 (15)
xFIP - 3.31 (8)
K% - 35.1% (3)
K-BB% - 30.3% (2)
AVG - .165 (1)
WAR - 5.2 (6)

Cole
IP - 176.1 (9)
ERA - 2.81 (7)
WHIP - 0.95 (2)
FIP - 2.89 (3)
xFIP - 2.62 (1)
K% - 38.7% (1)
BB% - 32.4% (1)
AVG - .194 (2)
WAR - 5.6 (3)
Farmer1906
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Deluxe said:

Prosperdick said:

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:




That's ****ing cool
And amazing...please back up the Brinks truck Crane, think of all the sell-out ring promotions!!
How to clear max money for the man:

Trade Reddick ($13 million) and replace with Tucker (minimum)
Trade Correa (~$10 million in 2020, ~$20 million in 2021) and replace with Toro (minimum)
Let Smith, Rondon and McHugh walk ($18.3 million off the books) and replace with internal guys/cheap FA vets
So you found the money for 2020. How about 2021 thru 2025?
Ag_07
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I would not be opposed to see Cole win Cy Young and JV MVP.
Ag_07
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willjohnathan said:

Ag_07 said:

The Yankees BP is no better than ours. They're better in some categories and we're better in some.

We actually have a better in ERA (3.79 vs 4.13) and a better LOB% (77.5 to 747.7%). They've got us in FIP, WAR, and K/9.

So to me the thought that they're so much better and more reliable than us is fake news. I'd say we're about neck and neck and if anything they're slightly better.

BPs in general this year are pretty ho-hum. Not one stands out and they're all a bit iffy. Hell our BP ERA is 2nd in the AL. While they're not shut down auto-out good like we'd all like relatively speaking they're just fine.


Our bullpen was all world for the first half of the season, but has fallen off a cliff since. More importantly it's our high leverage guys that have had the problems the second half of the season.

This is true

Looking at strictly 2nd half numbers

ERA of 3.62 (1st)
K/9 of 9.88 (2nd)
BB/9 of 3.42 (7th)
HR/9 of 1.57 (12th)
LOB% of 80.3 (1st)

Looking just at those numbers it's obvious that walks and HRs are where the weakness is. But still while they have fallen off the cliff (or come back to the mean) they're still not as horrible as it seems when compared to the rest of the league.
Phrasing
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mathguy86 said:

That release point is the same. Wow.
That's insane how hard it must be to hit him.
cpsencik04
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Deluxe said:

Prosperdick said:

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:




That's ****ing cool
And amazing...please back up the Brinks truck Crane, think of all the sell-out ring promotions!!
How to clear max money for the man:

Trade Reddick ($13 million) and replace with Tucker (minimum)
Trade Correa (~$10 million in 2020, ~$20 million in 2021) and replace with Toro (minimum)
Let Smith, Rondon and McHugh walk ($18.3 million off the books) and replace with internal guys/cheap FA vets
Do we think that is enough to be able to keep Springer as well?

And hopefully resign Verlander at the end of his current deal?