***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

1,473,883 Views | 31919 Replies | Last: 2 min ago by mathguy86
12law
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
They played us pretty tough so i definitely think there is genuine improvement there.
irish pete ag06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Marvin said:

Andyzipp said:

irish pete ag06 said:

I'm still a bit blown away at how Minnesota go so good so fast.


It helps when you have a steady diet of Tigers, Royals, and White Sox in your schedule.


Easiest schedule in baseball.
Good point.
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
the American League is historically awful.

decent chance 5 teams will lose 100 games or more.

the Orioles for sure. The Tigers and Royals also.

and maybe the Blue Jays and Mariners.

the Jays have 10 games left with the Orioles, so Toronto might reach 63 wins
Harry Dunne
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Exploring the Competitive Tax implications on the Astros Trade Deadline approach

Main takeaway: We currently only have $14M to replace or re-sign 7 players (Cole, McHugh, Miley, Chirinos, Harris, Rondon, Smith) in 2020 & remain under the Competitive Tax Balance Threshold (as Crane stated we would).

That's a big part why the club is so desperate to hold on to Kemp & White & their cheap salaries.
AggiEE
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Harry Dunne said:

Exploring the Competitive Tax implications on the Astros Trade Deadline approach

Main takeaway: We currently only have $14M to replace or re-sign 7 players (Cole, McHugh, Miley, Chirinos, Harris, Rondon, Smith) in 2020 & remain under the Competitive Tax Balance Threshold (as Crane stated we would).

That's a big part why the club is so desperate to hold on to Kemp & White & their cheap salaries.



This is why Cole is gone next season for sure. We are also going to lose a substantial portion of our bullpen.

It may be why we don't trade for anyone with a high average contract value. Only trades will be for rentals or those under club control with low salaries.

It's why our minor league prospects not panning out puts is in a very difficult position for next year.
Mr.Bond
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Competitive tax is dumb
If the NYY want to spend 250 million a year and not win a WS then let them.
I'm looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. I'm just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


H-Town 2017 WS Champions
Gap
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If the Astros are going to stay under the tax threshold, do we need to be sellers in some regard? Does it make sense to trade a guy we apparently aren't going to be able to afford to sign and isn't making a difference in this years success for high end prospects (i.e. trade Correa)?
Mr.Bond
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
You don't trade Correa when he's your best choice to help win a championship. Mode is to win and win now
I'm looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. I'm just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


H-Town 2017 WS Champions
AggiEE
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Gap said:

If the Astros are going to stay under the tax threshold, do we need to be sellers in some regard? Does it make sense to trade a guy we apparently aren't going to be able to afford to sign and isn't making a difference in this years success for high end prospects (i.e. trade Correa)?


Correa is still cheap. You hold onto him as long as he's under club control unless there's an outstanding trade offer on the table

By the time a lot of our core are free agents you'll have some big names off the books (Yuli, Reddick, Brantley) so we will have a bit more flexibility.

It's why we are not in a rush to trade Tucker, since his success (along with Yordan) are key since they will be cheap for years to come.
Gap
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I see what is being said as Correa can't become a free agent until after the 2021 season. If he were to be traded it would be for another young superstar that is under team control.
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
this is what the board discussed a couple of weeks ago. There are not any big contracts coming off the books at the end of the 2019 season. So resigning Cole would just about automatically put the Astros over the luxury tax threshold.

the author's comment about Reddick was very interesting. Good thing Josh has had a very good 2019. Otherwise we would be a salary dump candidate to save $13 MM toward the 2020 tax threshold.

also as previously mentioned the Astros will be losing / trading / dumping 3 or 4 bullpen arms to free salary space. Luhnow will try to avoid dealing James at the deadline, but teams are going to want pitching prospects in return
Ag_07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gap said:

I see what is being said as Correa can't become a free agent until after the 2021 season. If he were to be traded it would be for another young superstar that is under team control.

But that's what he is.

He's not going anywhere while he's cheap.

k20dub
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's getting Spursy in here
Gap
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ag_07 said:

Gap said:

I see what is being said as Correa can't become a free agent until after the 2021 season. If he were to be traded it would be for another young superstar that is under team control.

But that's what he is.

He's not going anywhere while he's cheap.


What if you need a couple of young stars to revamp your pitching staff and you are happy with what Straw gives you at SS?
Farmer1906
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gap said:

Ag_07 said:

Gap said:

I see what is being said as Correa can't become a free agent until after the 2021 season. If he were to be traded it would be for another young superstar that is under team control.

But that's what he is.

He's not going anywhere while he's cheap.


What if you need a couple of young stars to revamp your pitching staff and you are happy with what Straw gives you at SS?


Is there an example of this done before? I'm just not seeing the logic.
Ag_07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
We're not talking about revamping our rotation. We're talking about adding a couple pieces.

I think you can get good, cheap, controllable arms without giving up Correa.

Just look at their track record of acquiring arms without dealing top prospects much less a ML stud who's cheap.

And for what it's worth I'm not a big Correa fan and don't think he's worth near what he'll commend as a FA.
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
To me, the type of team that has two young/controllable, win-now caliber arms wouldn't be interested in dealing them for a SS with two controllable years before he asks for $300 million.
KC_Ag14
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Deluxe said:

To me, the type of team that has two young/controllable, win-now caliber arms wouldn't be interested in dealing them for a SS with two controllable years before he asks for $300 million.
I remember getting CRUSHED on the 2018 season forum for suggesting a potential Correa trade lol needless to to say... this has been a fun discussion to follow
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I think alot of us were open to dealing Correa when the time is right. It sounds like he didn't do himself any favors with the organization getting hurt the way he did. But he's still an impact player (when healthy), doesn't make much this year and we'll have alot of leverage when he inevitably goes to arb this offseason, so presumably he'll be cheap next year too.

It also wouldn't be easy to find the right trade partner if we did decide to trade him. A team interested in trading for Correa is likely a team in win-now mode who would be ok if he walks in two years. That sort of team will want to give up prospects, not guys who are helping them win-now. Maybe there's a three-way deal out there. I dunno. I just don't think dealing him is a very straight-forward proposition.
KC_Ag14
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Deluxe said:

I think alot of us were open to dealing Correa when the time is right. It sounds like he didn't do himself any favors with the organization getting hurt the way he did. But he's still an impact player (when healthy), doesn't make much this year and we'll have alot of leverage when he inevitably goes to arb this offseason, so presumably he'll be cheap next year too.

It also wouldn't be easy to find the right trade partner if we did decide to trade him. A team interested in trading for Correa is likely a team in win-now mode who would be ok if he walks in two years. That sort of team will want to give up prospects, not guys who are helping them win-now. Maybe there's a three-way deal out there. I dunno. I just don't think dealing him is a very straight-forward proposition.
100%. I'll go one step further and say I genuinely don't think a deal is there for it. Howeva... I don't see the harm in seeing what another organization would value him at either. His injuries the last couple of years will make his value hard to quantify... but think it would nice to know where other teams see him compared to the where the Stros see him.
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
under normal circumstances a team would not trade an all-star shortstop with 2 more controllable seasons.

but Correa's injury history makes his situation different.

usually a "controllable season" means 145 to 150 games for a player. With Correa it means 100 to 110 games and bringing various minor leaguers up & down for 2 months (and using up their options) to fill the vacancy
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I have no qualms with that. It's possible Luhnow is quietly gauging behind the scenes.
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I've been toying with the idea recently that Diaz is our SS of the future. Career .786 OPS guy controllable thru 2022. Should be able to retain him long term not too expensively,which I think is good asset optimization. He'll produce less than Correa, but better than the average SS and we'll be able to pay him like $20mm per year less than Correa. Plus Nova should be ready by 2022 and Bregman can slide over if all else fails.

It seems like we'll only be able to keep two of Cole, Springer and Correa... and Correa seems like a distant third on that list right now.
Farmer1906
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I think y'all are way off base. The only way I could see us trading Correa is if the year before he's a FA we have some ridiculous injury situation and are out of contention by the deadline. In that unlikely scenario we could movie Correa as a rental to end the year. Then we could make a play at getting him back if we want to.
Farmer1906
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Deluxe said:

I've been toying with the idea recently that Diaz is our SS of the future. Career .786 OPS guy controllable thru 2022. Should be able to retain him long term not too expensively,which I think is good asset optimization. He'll produce less than Correa, but better than the average SS and we'll be able to pay him like $20mm per year less than Correa. Plus Nova should be ready by 2022 and Bregman can slide over if all else fails.

It seems like we'll only be able to keep two of Cole, Springer and Correa... and Correa seems like a distant third on that list right now.


Two? I would think just one.
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Who is off base?
redline248
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Do I understand correctly that Astros ownership will not go over the luxury tax?
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
We have room for two, but things would be tight. Retaining just one would give us a bit more flexibility.
irish pete ag06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I'm all for the discussion of any trade possibility because it's fun. But I just don't see it being anyway possible. As mentioned above, it would be a team needing to win now... and they would have to be willing to part with a contributing part of their pitching staff...

It just seems like it would be too much to try and overcome.
Deluxe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Deluxe said:

We have room for two, but things would be tight. Retaining just one would give us a bit more flexibility.
Now that I think about it, our putrid development of young pitching might be a factor here. If we had a stockpile of guys ready to be middle leverage major league relievers, we could probably afford to replace guys like Rondon, Smith, McHugh, etc with low priced pre-arb guys. But as of right now, we'll probably have to spend some money on bullpen vets to fill in our pitching staff, which takes some money off the table to retain our headline guys.
3B Paul 97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I'll be at the game tonight. If anyone has been to Angels Stadium before, do you have suggestions on areas to sit or things to do with the kids around the stadium?
Ag_07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Now's the time for Luhnow to part with some really nice prospects. If he wants (or needs) good, controllable, cheap players that's what it's gonna take. Parting with some guys we don't want to see go but who can bring back players that can keep this window open.

Take for instance Seth Lugo. Guy makes $591K and is controllable through 2022. He'd command and I think be worth a nice prospect haul.

These kinds of players are out there but again it's gonna take valuable prospects to get them and if they don't wanna spend more money they're gonna have to spend prospects.

AgFan1999
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And they will trade prospects. Main issue at this point is determining whose injury is going to allow them to be activated soonest, so we can figure out who needs to be replaced.
Farmer1906
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Deluxe said:

Who is off base?
Anyone who thinks Correa is a realistic trade option.
Farmer1906
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ag_07 said:

Now's the time for Luhnow to part with some really nice prospects. If he wants (or needs) good, controllable, cheap players that's what it's gonna take. Parting with some guys we don't want to see go but who can bring back players that can keep this window open.

Take for instance Seth Lugo. Guy makes $591K and is controllable through 2022. He'd command and I think be worth a nice prospect haul.

These kinds of players are out there but again it's gonna take valuable prospects to get them and if they don't wanna spend more money they're gonna have to spend prospects.


What is Lugo going to provide? Perfect 7th innings? And eventually, move into a closer role after Osuna is gone?

edit: just looked it up. We have Osuna until 2021 and Pressly until 2022 assuming he vests.

Is it worth giving up a potential ace or potential AS OF for that? Should we move Yordan?
Page 600 of 913
 
×
Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.