***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

redline248
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Also, I feel like this is one of those things were probabilities aren't that meaningful. Those same stats you highlighted for Chirinos, according to the article, are just as bad for Stassi. Yet Chirinos is actually producing in reality.

As someone said earlier, he'll likely have a regression, but will Stassi ever have a run? Not based on "probability."
W
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Chirinos has never played 81 games at Minute Maid Park.

that's what throws off some of the analysis that relies on past seasons.

his career OPS at MMP is 1.017 in 125 plate appearances
ClickClack
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Stassi has had periods of good production. I wouldn't write him off yet.
agsquirrel97
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W said:

Chirinos has never played 81 games at Minute Maid Park.

that's what throws off some of the analysis that relies on past seasons.

his career OPS at MMP is 1.017 in 125 plate appearances


Chirinos is also batting in a better lineup with more scoring opportunities which can only help.

Not saying his numbers are sustainable, but I don't think it is a fact he goes back to his Ranger stats either.

Let's face it, playing for the Astros is just funner than playing for the Rangers. How productive would you be if you had to work with a bunch of homos and Ranger fans! If I knew I was gonna get grabbed in the junk for hitting a home run, I would be pretty adverse to hitting home runs!!!
Ag_07
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ClickClack said:

Stassi has had periods of good production. I wouldn't write him off yet.


Man we hear this with a lot guys.

Don't write off Stassi yet
Don't write off White yet
Don't write off Kemp yet
Don't write off Fisher yet

It's OK to write guys off and move on from them.
W
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oh yes, that's definitely part of it too.

having Springer in the leadoff spot helps the 8-9 hitters
DVC2010
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Ag_07 said:

ClickClack said:

Stassi has had periods of good production. I wouldn't write him off yet.


Man we hear this with a lot guys.

Don't write off Stassi yet
Don't write off White yet
Don't write off Kemp yet
Don't write off Fisher yet

It's OK to write guys off and move on from them.

The problem is that there is nowhere to move. Stassi's defense at what we are paying him makes him a really good part of the roster.
Harry Dunne
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I agree with most of the above. What I wrote was in response to the "JT who?" stuff every time Chirinos does well. Realmuto is a far superior catcher to Chirinos and at the same salary, it's not even debatable. A lot of that has to do with defense. IF Chirinos can keep this up offensively, it will narrow the gap, but the bottom line is Chirinos is a career platoon guy and Realmuto is one of the best in the game. Like I said, it's not about whether Chirinos can hold a candle to Realmuto (he can't), it's about whether Tucker for 6 years + catcher rentals is better for the organization than Realmuto for two.

I agree that things here benefit Chirinos and he will be better than he was in Arlington, but he's not going to keep it up and finish the season with a 6 WAR. You play the hot hand, especially if the other option is ice cold, and right now Chirinos is hot...kind of like we rolled with Framber in 2018 while he was dealing, even though the numbers and common sense told us he wasn't going to have a career ERA of 2.19. No sane person thinks Chirinos will finish the season with a .922 OPS, but let's enjoy it while it lasts and hope that the new mean he regresses to is better than his career average.

What I think of writing someone off is dumping them for no return. It would be stupid to write any of the above guys off. I don't think the org wrote Colin Moran or JD Davis off, I just think they decided that we had better options at the positions they filled and they got the best value they could in return for them. I think it would be OK to do that with Kemp, Fisher or White as long as we got good value in return. I like all of those guys to varying degrees but I think we have other guys in the system that are better. I don't think it's smart to do that with Stassi even though I think he has the least potential of all of them simply because we don't have a better option.
W
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Rangers starting some guy named Chavez today. The broadcast indicated last night...this might be a bullpen game for the visitors.

Cole has 7 decisions in his 8 starts. Which means his games tend to be decided in the first 6 innings...one way or the other

Stros Schadenfreude
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Isnt he the sunglasses cholo?
mathguy86
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They are doing an opener. They don't want the starter seeing the top of the lineup 3 times
bearkatag15
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Guess we can take MadBum off the SP trade list
mathguy86
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So basically he doesn't want to go to a walk who hasn't a chance of winning it all
bearkatag15
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mathguy86 said:

So basically he doesn't want to go to a walk who hasn't a chance of winning it all


Yeah he must not like winning
dlance
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bearkatag15 said:




Guess we can take MadBum off the SP trade list
I believe these are the teams he is willing to go to (i.e. waive his no-trade for) but by making this list he has negotiation power.
Ag_07
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W said:

Rangers starting some guy named Chavez today. The broadcast indicated last night...this might be a bullpen game for the visitors.

Cole has 7 decisions in his 8 starts. Which means his games tend to be decided in the first 6 innings...one way or the other




Yeah he is the glasses wearing Cholo. Used to pitch for LAA where we typically hit him well.

I'm gonna go ahead and say this backfires on them.
mathguy86
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dlance said:

bearkatag15 said:




Guess we can take MadBum off the SP trade list
I believe these are the teams he is willing to go to (i.e. waive his no-trade for) but by making this list he has negotiation power.


If that's the case then he basically listed teams with realistic chances to win. Except the Dodgers. Because duck the Fodgers.

And I can't imagine he goes to NYY. They don't have room on their 40 having basically signed everyone in the off season.
gougler08
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dlance said:

bearkatag15 said:




Guess we can take MadBum off the SP trade list
I believe these are the teams he is willing to go to (i.e. waive his no-trade for) but by making this list he has negotiation power.


That wouldn't make sense with the rest of what Rosenthal said though...I read that as basically he doesn't want a contender to come in and take him from the Giants (reasons unknown)

Edit to add link with more Rosenthal tweets...basically it's a leverage play by Bumgarner

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebiglead.com/2019/05/11/giants-madison-bumgarner-no-trade-list/amp/
astros4545
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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gougler08 said:

dlance said:

bearkatag15 said:




Guess we can take MadBum off the SP trade list
I believe these are the teams he is willing to go to (i.e. waive his no-trade for) but by making this list he has negotiation power.


That wouldn't make sense with the rest of what Rosenthal said though...I read that as basically he doesn't want a contender to come in and take him from the Giants (reasons unknown)

Edit to add link with more Rosenthal tweets...basically it's a leverage play by Bumgarner

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebiglead.com/2019/05/11/giants-madison-bumgarner-no-trade-list/amp/


He can block up to eight teams, he can still approve a trade to these 8 listed teams, but he is due compensation as such. He is blocking the most likely trade partners in order to get more compensation other than just being traded to a contender.

Example: we trade tucker ****er straight up for bum and bum also gets a 2mill trade bonus split between astros and giants. Or something similar

Clear as mud?
redline248
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Would the Astros want to take on the rest of the 12 mil salary? What would they give up for him?
ClickClack
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Ag_07 said:

ClickClack said:

Stassi has had periods of good production. I wouldn't write him off yet.


Man we hear this with a lot guys.

Don't write off Stassi yet
Don't write off White yet
Don't write off Kemp yet
Don't write off Fisher yet

It's OK to write guys off and move on from them.


Just like we wrote off JD Martinez.
bearkatag15
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Quote:

Just like we wrote off JD Martinez.


Literally an anomaly that rarely if ever happens. He is probably the sole reason Lunhow won't give up on guys now. Made him fun shy
ClickClack
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I'm fine with cutting bait with a lot of the guys Ag07 mentioned, just not stassi quite yet. Felt the same way about JD at the time.
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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redline248 said:

Would the Astros want to take on the rest of the 12 mil salary? What would they give up for him?


A one 2 3 in the playoffs of Verlander cole and bum would be salty as ****
Ag_07
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Or we get Marcus Stroman

We'd give up a bit more, but take on less money in return and have an extra year of control vs a straight rental.
Farmer1906
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Deluxe
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McHugh to the pen and Corbin Martin getting called up tomorrow

Edit: Farmer1906 was first the break the news
Farmer1906
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Farmer1906
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Deluxe said:

McHugh to the pen and Corbin Martin getting called up tomorrow


You're slower than Tyler White in line for broccoli.
Deluxe
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Hopefully Martin never looks back. Big news for our bullpen too.
Harry Dunne
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bearkatag15 said:


Quote:

Just like we wrote off JD Martinez.


Literally an anomaly that rarely if ever happens. He is probably the sole reason Lunhow won't give up on guys now. Made him fun shy
Definitely an anomaly, but still a mistake. There were plenty of ABs to go around (what future star was breathing down his neck? Robbie Grossman?!?!) - the Astros didn't need to cut bait.

There is also this fable that Astros fans tell themselves to make themselves feel better about losing him...how the shock of being released made Martinez retool his swing and that's why he had so much success with Detroit. He did work on his swing that offseason, but we released him on March 22, 2014 and he got picked up by Detroit 2 days later, hit .315 with 23 bombs in 2014 and the rest his history. We were just a few weeks of patience away from a guy we already had becoming an all-star.

It's a different situation now than it was in 2014, but Luhnow is smart enough not to make the same mistake twice, even if it means we hold onto some guys a little too long.
Deluxe
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Farmer1906 said:

Deluxe said:

McHugh to the pen and Corbin Martin getting called up tomorrow


You're slower than Tyler White in line for broccoli.


I'm losing my edge in my old age
EastCoastAgNc
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Harry Dunne
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Hopefully they are just being more candid with their reporting, rather than this being much more serious than what they usually characterize as "discomfort".
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