***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

3,727,051 Views | 74431 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by PSully97
Andyzipp
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bullard21k said:

Call me crazy but I'd consider starting peacock game 4. Let him try and navigate 3-4 innings or so.

I know he's been on shelf for awhile but if he looks strong the next 8 games I'd consider it
Not sure you could get Peacock stretched out for 4 innings in the next week. Especially not considering it was shoulder issues that sidelined him for so long.
rosco511
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Andyzipp said:

bullard21k said:

Call me crazy but I'd consider starting peacock game 4. Let him try and navigate 3-4 innings or so.

I know he's been on shelf for awhile but if he looks strong the next 8 games I'd consider it
Not sure you could get Peacock stretched out for 4 innings in the next week. Especially not considering it was shoulder issues that sidelined him for so long.


But I think the issue really turned out to be a neck related issue that manifested into shoulder discomfort. In other words, he was having shoulder soreness but there was not any structural damage or sign of injury to the shoulder. Once they were able to figure out and treat the neck injury, it sounds like his shoulder has been feeling good.
Farmer1906
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Ag_07 said:

Teddy Perkins said:

The three options:
  • Start Urquidy. Luhnow is not worried about going over is inning limit. He was rested the second half of August and first half of September so he's ready to go, wants to go, and feels good. The matchup will help dictate whether he starts. If it's the A's he had a good outing against them striking out 10 on 9/11. The Indians, however, lit him up for 6 runs in four innings on 7/31.
  • JV on short rest. Leaves Cole to close it out on regular rest. Most likely option if the Stros are facing elimination in Game 4.
  • Bullpen game. May leave off Straw, Tucker, or Marisnick to carry an extra reliever for the ALDS. Rely on Pressly, Harris, Osuna to face the dangerous part of the lineup, but also have JV available to pitch, if needed. If JV does pitch you could push his first ALCS start to Game 2.





Were taking about losing 2 out of 3 vs a very good team. That's not crazy. That small of a sample size in baseball can go either way.
Ag_07
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Man I just have a hard time putting any confidence in Peacock.

Besides the whole not pitching in forever but he hasn't been good Peacock all year long.
The Milkman
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The 2001 Diamondbacks won their WS with just two pitchers. I'm sure we can do it with 3.
Bregxit
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Ag_07 said:

Man I just have a hard time putting any confidence in Peacock.

Besides the whole not pitching in forever but he hasn't been good Peacock all year long.


He was bad in June when we was trying to play through the initial injury. Other than that there were two bad outings, one which was the start prior to switching to the windup. He has otherwise been pretty solid.
dshedd41
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already saved as my desktop background
Don’t Care. Got Jimbo
Beat40
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6 games to go, boys. Still lots left to play for, so it should be fun. Let's hope the Rays and Rangers can help us out a bit. Would be nice if they could take 2-3 games in total from the Yanks.
Farmer1906
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What is out magic # for home field over NY?
Gramercy Riffs
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5, right?
Farmer1906
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Gramercy Riffs said:

5, right?
I believe so since we have the tiebreaker.
Ag_07
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IIRC his R/L splits are pretty drastic.

I could see him being used in a specialist type role. He doesn't need to be stretched out, can give max effort, and pitch to those favorable splits
mathguy86
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Gramercy Riffs said:

5, right?
Yes. If we go 4-2 the Yankees have to go 5-0 to jump us. Even if we go 3-3 they have to go 4-1.
Harry Dunne
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Faustus said:

Agnzona said:

Who might be the Diaz or Brantley of next year? Solid veterans that want to win and have fun?
Somewhere Cyndi Lauper's ears start to twitch.
Oh daddy dear, you know you're still #1
CFTXAG10
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nm
Farmer1906
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Nuke LaLoosh said:

Farmer1906 said:

Presage got moved to 1pm.

We can get 4 per game. I might be able to get 2 extra for game 2 if anyone is interested. No promises though.


I'm game
Wasn't able to get the extra. Sorry!
07ag
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CFTXAG10 said:

nm
can't pm, but interested!
https://ts.la/eric59704
Aggie Pharmer
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I ended up deciding not to get tickets through the presale. Was only offered seats in the 400-sections.
n_touch
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I sent everyone a reply. Currently I have 4 Navy and 17 Graphite. Shoot me a PM if you want one.
Safe at Home
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Since the first of July, Verlander, Cole and Grienke (in games he's pitched for Houston) have a combined record of 27-4. Not a good omen for a team wanting to win a playoff series against the Astros.
astros4545
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What is the team record
TxAg82
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Teddy Perkins said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27685804/with-mike-trout-baseball-rat-alex-bregman-earn-al-mvp

Good read on the intangibles of AB.

Quote:

During Bregman's meeting with Team Louisiana, some of the young ball players told Bregman that they made friends with several kids from Team Venezuela during the Little League World Series, but they couldn't communicate due to the language barrier. The 25-year-old New Mexico native from Albuquerque responded by telling them the story about how he learned how to speak Spanish at their age, so he could communicate to his teammates in travel ball.

"He thinks he's Hispanic. He comes here every day to play baseball, but also to practice his Spanish." Gurriel cracked. "He walks over to me and starts spitting out all these phrases in his broken Spanish and it gets me laughing every time. He's gotten better over the years, ... but he still needs work."


Back to the Bregman v Trout MVP debate. I read a few pages back that Trout's higher WAR shows he was more valuable. I actually think their WAR numbers show Bregman as the more valuable player to his team. If I understand WAR correctly (it is entirely possible that I do not) they are both estimated to be responsible for around 8 additional wins for their respective teams over a AAAA quality replacement player.

7.8 WAR for Bregman
8.3 WAR for Trout

Without those 8 wins from Bregman, Houston would be locked in a tie for the division with the A's and battling to even make the playoffs with a 94-62 record.

Instead, they have a comfortable division lead and are trying to lock down home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Seems valuable to me.

Trouts 8 wins above his AAAA replacement took the Angels from last place to second to last place.
Farmer1906
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TxAg82 said:

Teddy Perkins said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27685804/with-mike-trout-baseball-rat-alex-bregman-earn-al-mvp

Good read on the intangibles of AB.

Quote:

During Bregman's meeting with Team Louisiana, some of the young ball players told Bregman that they made friends with several kids from Team Venezuela during the Little League World Series, but they couldn't communicate due to the language barrier. The 25-year-old New Mexico native from Albuquerque responded by telling them the story about how he learned how to speak Spanish at their age, so he could communicate to his teammates in travel ball.

"He thinks he's Hispanic. He comes here every day to play baseball, but also to practice his Spanish." Gurriel cracked. "He walks over to me and starts spitting out all these phrases in his broken Spanish and it gets me laughing every time. He's gotten better over the years, ... but he still needs work."


Back to the Bregman v Trout MVP debate. I read a few pages back that Trout's higher WAR shows he was more valuable. I actually think their WAR numbers show Bregman as the more valuable player to his team. If I understand WAR correctly (it is entirely possible that I do not) they are both estimated to be responsible for around 8 additional wins for their respective teams over a AAAA quality replacement player.

7.8 WAR for Bregman
8.3 WAR for Trout

Without those 8 wins from Bregman, Houston would be locked in a tie for the division with the A's and battling to even make the playoffs with a 94-62 record.

Instead, they have a comfortable division lead and are trying to lock down home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Seems valuable to me.

Trouts 8 wins above his AAAA replacement took the Angels from last place to second to last place.
If Trouts WAR were 30 to Bregman's 7.8 then wouldn't your argument still be true?
Bregxit
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If Trout's WAR were 30 they'd be in contention for the second WC.
Nuke LaLoosh
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Is WAR not calculated based on other players at your position? Or is it other players period?
Farmer1906
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Bregxit said:

If Trout's WAR were 30 they'd be in contention for the second WC.


I think the point went right over your head.
Bregxit
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Farmer1906 said:

Bregxit said:

If Trout's WAR were 30 they'd be in contention for the second WC.


I think the point went right over your head.


Not really. You said if Trout's WAR was 30 that his argument would still be true. I pointed out that it wouldn't be true as far as the Angels go. They wouldn't be second to last place, they'd be in contention for the playoffs. Not to mention that Trout would go from MVP to MVPOfAllTime.
Farmer1906
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Bregxit said:

Farmer1906 said:

Bregxit said:

If Trout's WAR were 30 they'd be in contention for the second WC.


I think the point went right over your head.


Not really. You said if Trout's WAR was 30 that his argument would still be true. I pointed out that it wouldn't be true as far as the Angels go. They wouldn't be second to last place, they'd be in contention for the playoffs. Not to mention that Trout would go from MVP to MVPOfAllTime.
If the Angels had the same failing record and Trout had a 30 WAR then the same argument could be made. Trout's big fat WAR is meaningless. Which would be silly because that would be the greatest season of all time.
Bregxit
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Farmer1906 said:

Bregxit said:

Farmer1906 said:

Bregxit said:

If Trout's WAR were 30 they'd be in contention for the second WC.


I think the point went right over your head.


Not really. You said if Trout's WAR was 30 that his argument would still be true. I pointed out that it wouldn't be true as far as the Angels go. They wouldn't be second to last place, they'd be in contention for the playoffs. Not to mention that Trout would go from MVP to MVPOfAllTime.
If the Angels had the same failing record and Trout had a 30 WAR then the same argument could be made. Trout's big fat WAR is meaningless. Which would be silly because that would be the greatest season of all time.


Except it would be indisputable in any case.

Strawman aside, Bregman's WAR is more valuable than Trout's as it stands. I don't think it should even be a question.
BTKAG97
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Farmer1906 said:

Gramercy Riffs said:

5, right?
I believe so since we have the tiebreaker.
Yes, the most wins the Yankees can get is 107. The most wins the Dodgers can get is 106.

Therefore the magic number against the Yanks is 5 and the Dodgers is 4.
TxAg82
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Bregxit said:

Farmer1906 said:

Bregxit said:

Farmer1906 said:

Bregxit said:

If Trout's WAR were 30 they'd be in contention for the second WC.


I think the point went right over your head.


Not really. You said if Trout's WAR was 30 that his argument would still be true. I pointed out that it wouldn't be true as far as the Angels go. They wouldn't be second to last place, they'd be in contention for the playoffs. Not to mention that Trout would go from MVP to MVPOfAllTime.
If the Angels had the same failing record and Trout had a 30 WAR then the same argument could be made. Trout's big fat WAR is meaningless. Which would be silly because that would be the greatest season of all time.


Except it would be indisputable in any case.

Strawman aside, Bregman's WAR is more valuable than Trout's as it stands. I don't think it should even be a question.
1. Trout does not have a WAR of 30 and never will.
2. As already mentioned, if he did have a WAR of 30 he would be the unanimous MVP.
3. FanGraphs makes it clear that WAR of 7.8 and 8.3 are statistically the same thing. They are both having MVP caliber seasons.


Quote:

Quote:


Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. WAR can tell you that these two players are likely about equal in value, but you need to dig deeper to separate them.
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

One of the "dig deep" items that I am using to aruge for Bregman is that his extra wins actually accomplished something valuable for the Astros. I am sure there are many other metrics that will sway someone to vote for Trout.



shano0603
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9 o'clock games
Safe at Home
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Didn't Brian Kenny make a great case for Bregman by pointing out that he's played half his games at shortstop? I know WAR is adjusted for position, but in this case it misses his contribution. What if he couldn't have played shortstop while Correa and Diaz were injured? What would the Astros have done? Put Myles Straw out there and let him learn the position on the run?

And Kenny is Mr. Analytics himself.
spadilly
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The wife and I are planning a trip to Seattle next year. Scheduling it in conjunction with the Astros being out there.

That said, any tips on hotels, sights, restaurants? It'll be our first trip to the NW.
mathguy86
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Fresh Dungenes crab at Pike Street market. And pray that SEA-TAC is finished with their remodel. Because that airport is the armpit of the US air travel system.