We worked hard for it all year, so let's turn our attention fully to the draft!

This afternoon we'll know if we pick 3rd or 4th. Being third will only get us 13.7% odds at the first pick. 4th only drops us to 13.6% odds.

Lottery- May 15th.

I'll try to find the best collection of highlight vids for the top prospects- at least for what everyone considers to be the top 6 in this draft, and post them here as a nice central location for review.

I don't think my view has changed over the season- if we get number 1, I want Ayton, period.

DeAndre Ayton

I didn't see this thread when i posted my draft hopes in the Mavs 2017-208 thread, but here it is:

Michael Porter would be my pick if his back gets cleared by the medical staff. And by 'cleared' i mean, "you have absolutely nothing to worry about at all. he's 100% g2g." Not some murky, well as long as he stretches it out and takes care of his body, blah blah. With a top 3 pick, I want to draft as sure of a thing as possible and the least reliable thing in the NBA world is a big man with back problems.

Otherwise I'd take Doncic.

This is assuming the Mavs get the 3rd pick. If we fall to 4 or 5, I think i'd take Mo Bamba.

Bagley intrigues the hell out of me, but if we're taking a player with an offensive skillset, I'd rather go Doncic or Porter.

Ayton (not happening)
Porter (if healthy)
Doncic
Bagley
Bamba
Jaren Jackson

^my top guys in order for the Mavs.

Quote:

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Ayton (not happening)
Porter (if healthy)
Doncic
Bagley
Bamba
Jaren Jackson

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Porter will be OK but he does come with a risk of re-injury. I think I would go:

Creates for himself and others:
1. Doncic

Creates for himself:
2. Ayton
3. Bagley
4. Porter (last due to re-injury risk)

Non-offensive creators, Elite defensive/rebounding potential:
5. Bamba
6. Jackson

I'm hoping the Mavs snag one of the offensive creators. Take a swing here. Pair two guys who can create (DSJ + Doncic/Bagley/Bamba/Porter) with 3 defenders and spot up shooters. Either way, I'll talk myself into Bamba/Jackson if that is the pick. This is a good draft to tank in, even if the lottery is unkind.

Yea my Porter pick was based precisely on his injury being fully cleared. Not half way. And certainly not with any increased risk of re-injury. If his back is any less healthy than Doncic's, I'm taking Doncic. In fact I would remove Porter completely from my board.

With players as dominant as Ayton, it's hard to find footage of them actually shooting the ball. The 73% FT number looks encouraging as far as developing a mid-range game. When I watch him, I'm reminded a lot of Patrick Ewing. Maybe not the explosiveness of Blake Griffin or Deandre Jordan, the lateral quickness of D-Rob, or the magic low post moves of Hakeem, but for his age an incredibly well-rounded big man.

94chem said:

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With players as dominant as Ayton, it's hard to find footage of them actually shooting the ball. The 73% FT number looks encouraging as far as developing a mid-range game. When I watch him, I'm reminded a lot of Patrick Ewing. Maybe not the explosiveness of Blake Griffin or Deandre Jordan, the lateral quickness of D-Rob, or the magic low post moves of Hakeem, but for his age an incredibly well-rounded big man.

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Ayton can move. Watch him on fast breaks. He's not slow or uncoordinated. Dude can move (not quite like AD) but at 7'1, those guys don't grow on trees. Hakeem is absolutely his ceiling and he has the tools to get there. He's the clear #1 player in this draft and would fit perfectly on the Mavs current roster (where Mejri, Dirk and an unmotivated Noel were your C). I just kinda wrote him off because there's a 0% chance Phoenix (a short drive from Zona's campus) doesn't take him if they pick ahead of the Mavs.

My only question about Ayton is "big man syndrome." Humans just weren't meant to be that size, and the odds of being the next Oden, Walton, Bowie, Yao are always higher.

94chem said:

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My only question about Ayton is "big man syndrome." Humans just weren't meant to be that size, and the odds of being the next Oden, Walton, Bowie, Yao are always higher.

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I mean the longevity of big men are inherently shorter than anyone of 'normal' size but their impact to the game is still as big as it's always been. Ayton is only 19. Short of a freak injury, he should be a dominant player in the NBA for a decade at least.

Yao was too big (like 7'5) and suffered from bad bone structure.
Oden had a myriad of knee problems.
Bowie wasn't a bust. He played 11 years in the NBA and had a solid career. He just gets the 'bust' label for getting drafted ahead of Jordan.
Walton played a million years ago. I never watched him play nor know anything about him other than he's bat**** crazy.

Ayton has no injury history at all and I wouldn't worry about drafting a player that 'might' get hurt. For every Greg Oden there's a Dirk or Tim Duncan, who played nearly 2 decades mostly injury free.

It doesn't get anymore unscientific than this, but I've always felt like you could get a sense of a big guy's injury potential by just watching him run. Ayton looks fine. I would mostly be worried about whether or not he cares enough to be great.

Luka Doncic

Great highlight reel here- showcases some defense, some iso shot creation, and a few circus shots thrown in for good measure

Marvin Bagley

Great x's and o's video about his abilities

Early in the Bagley video he just bumps a guy out of the way using his lower body. That ability of a young big to get the ball on the block, take a power dribble and move his man 12" to get that 3-footer off the glass is impressive. Melo was able to do that.

In the least surprising news of this offseason so far, Wesley Matthews picked up his $18.6 million player option for next year

True Anomaly said:

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In the least surprising news of this offseason so far, Wesley Matthews picked up his $18.6 million player option for next year

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Nah, the least surprising opt in will be Carmelo Anthony with his $28m.

I'm fine with Wes opting in; only because I want one more tanking season.

M.C. Swag said:

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True Anomaly said:

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In the least surprising news of this offseason so far, Wesley Matthews picked up his $18.6 million player option for next year

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Nah, the least surprising opt in will be Carmelo Anthony with his $28m.

I'm fine with Wes opting in; only because I want one more tanking season.

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I would like another semi-tanking season as well. Not outright trying to lose from game one. More like giving experience to the young guys, try to win, hope for growth, then "evaluate" Jalen Jones and Andrew Harrision again for the final 10 games of the season. I certainly won't be upset if they are winning "meaningless" games in the middle of next year with DSJ + Ayton/Doncic/Bagley. That would be a positive development.

Worst case is that Cuban and co. try to get Boogie Cousins and compete for the 8th seed next year. Be realistic that there is no short term path to contention. But the current batch of stars (Harden/CP3/LeBron/Curry/Durant) will age themselves out of contention in the next 5 years. That coincides with the Mavs window opening up in the early 2020's. The Mavs shouldn't build a team to beat Houston or Golden State. They need to beat Ben Simmons, Anthony Davis and the Greek Freak.

What the Mavs are doing now is perfect. 12 months from now they could conceivably have DSJ + Ayton/Doncic/Bagley + 2019 Top 10 pick + Most cap space in the league. The Mavs should use their current cap space to either take bad contracts in exchange for draft picks or try to pick up a few young free agents who need a 2nd chance (Exum/Jabari/Okafor/Hezonja).

Quote:

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What the Mavs are doing now is perfect. 12 months from now they could conceivably have DSJ + Ayton/Doncic/Bagley + 2019 Top 10 pick + Most cap space in the league. The Mavs should use their current cap space to either take bad contracts in exchange for draft picks or try to pick up a few young free agents who need a 2nd chance (Exum/Jabari/Okafor/Hezonja).

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DING DING. Can't agree more.

The proven formula to success is stacking consecutive players in the lottery (and obviously nailing them). Summer of 2020 should be when Dallas goes big game hunting with their cap space. Pair a proven vet with the solid core of '17, '18, & '19 young studs and we'll be good to go in 2020.

That Philly team reminds me of Chicago in Jordan's early years, a matter of when and how many, not if. I wonder if they'll have the right coach. I never knew why Doug Collins was fired, but man did they hit the jackpot with Phil.

Time to resurrect this thing for the lottery tomorrow night!

7:30 PM, ESPN

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23460258/2018-nba-draft-lottery-guide-odds-likely-picks-more-every-team

6:30 Central Time

Seven Costanza said:

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6:30 Central Time

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My bad- yes, 6:30 Central

There's fringe rumors that Dallas could be the 3rd participant in a 76ers/Spurs trade for Kawhi.

Basically, Dallas can provide SA the contract compensation to make up for Kawhi. The rumored deal could work like this:

Dallas acquires:
J. Bayless from Philly (2 yr - $9m player)
J. Anderson from Philly (2 yr - $1.6m player)
Tj McConnell from Philly (2 yr - $1.5m player)
R. Holmes from Philly (2 yr - $1.5m player)
Philly's 2nd, first round draft pick

Dallas sends:
Harrison Barnes (3 yr - $23.1m) to SA
Max Kleiber (2 yr - $800k) to Philly

Mavs overall impact:
This effectively removes over $5m from the Mavs cap over the next 2 years and ensures a blank slate in the summer of 2020 to sign 2 max players.

SA gets Harrison Barnes, a sweetner contract by Philly, and Philly's top 10 pick in this draft.

Philly obviously gets Kawhi and whatever trash contract SA needs to send to even it out (maybe Brandon Paul?)

^This has like a 3% chance of happening but it is interesting.

Seems like the spurs should be able to get much more than that for Kawhi. But I don't mind it from the Mavs' perspective.

mavsfan4ever said:

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Seems like the spurs should be able to get much more than that for Kawhi. But I don't mind it from the Mavs' perspective.

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It's a tough spot for the Spurs. They don't really have any leverage. Kawhi can sink any trade offers by simply telling the new team he won't re-sign with them (similar to what Carmelo or PG did prior to arriving in OKC).

I honestly don't think SA can do much better unless Kawhi is amiable to more teams. A disgruntled super star under a long term contract rarely gets equal value in a trade let alone one with only a year on his deal.

Trading Harrison Barnes I think would be a bad move. Dude is going to a beast and hasnt even hit his prime yet. Could be a cornerstone piece for the mavs for along time

rsf0626 said:

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Trading Harrison Barnes I think would be a bad move. Dude is going to a beast and hasnt even hit his prime yet. Could be a cornerstone piece for the mavs for along time

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I like Barnes a lot and agree. Only bad thing is the timing of his contract and where the Mavs are as a roster.

The Mavs need to tank one more year imo and are at least 3 years away from even potentially being a contender. I think summer of 2020 is when Dallas needs to make its move. By that point we will have hopefully drafted 3 young studs (DSJ, this year's lotto pick, and next year's lotto pick) and the cap situation is a beautiful blank slate. Unfortunately, I don't see how Barnes fits into that scheme. He's too good a player with too rich a contract.

M.C. Swag said:

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There's fringe rumors that Dallas could be the 3rd participant in a 76ers/Spurs trade for Kawhi.

Basically, Dallas can provide SA the contract compensation to make up for Kawhi. The rumored deal could work like this:

Dallas acquires:
J. Bayless from Philly (2 yr - $9m player)
J. Anderson from Philly (2 yr - $1.6m player)
Tj McConnell from Philly (2 yr - $1.5m player)
R. Holmes from Philly (2 yr - $1.5m player)
Philly's 2nd, first round draft pick

Dallas sends:
Harrison Barnes (3 yr - $23.1m) to SA
Max Kleiber (2 yr - $800k) to Philly

Mavs overall impact:
This effectively removes over $5m from the Mavs cap over the next 2 years and ensures a blank slate in the summer of 2020 to sign 2 max players.

SA gets Harrison Barnes, a sweetner contract by Philly, and Philly's top 10 pick in this draft.

Philly obviously gets Kawhi and whatever trash contract SA needs to send to even it out (maybe Brandon Paul?)

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Done- where do I sign?

rsf0626 said:

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Trading Harrison Barnes I think would be a bad move. Dude is going to a beast and hasnt even hit his prime yet. Could be a cornerstone piece for the mavs for along time

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He's 26 so I wouldn't expect much improvement. He's a decent player, but he's not good enough to be a cornerstone on a contending team. I love his attitude and work ethic and would want to keep him if we were expecting to compete in the next year or so. But we aren't, so there is no reason to keep him in my opinion.

ayton
doncic
porter
young
bagley

and no to that deal. i love barnes.

txjortsagent said:

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ayton
doncic
porter
young
bagley

and no to that deal. i love barnes.

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Trae Young?! You have trae young over Bamba AND Bagley?

I'm very low on bagley. High on Doncic and Jackson.

Besides Ayton, I think I'm actually highest on Bamba =)

He'll take a couple years, but he has the physical tools to be great. Ayton, Bamba or Doncic is my wishlist. (I wouldn't draft Trae Young with any pick in the top 10)

Can we at least say Jackson over Young? I have absolutely no interest in Young with our pick, even if we land at 6 with the lottery. Big man or nothing

In case you've ever wondered why the actual drawing of the ping pong balls isn't televised: 1) It's incredibly boring and 2) it kills the minor suspense of revealing them in reverse order.

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/draft/2015/05/19/2015-draft-lottery-drawing.nba