TheDino said:

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I think the series is a coin flip. I'm picking Spurs in 7.

Go Spurs.

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Same. I don't think either team has a huge advantage and there are variables that are impossible to know (will the shooters show up for Houston, will LMA and Tony Parker show up for SA?)

I think it is a coin flip. If the Rockets don't close out in 6, I have a hard time believing they will win in San Antonio in game 7.

Guitarsoup said:

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TheDino said:

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I think the series is a coin flip. I'm picking Spurs in 7.

Go Spurs.

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Same. I don't think either team has a huge advantage and there are variables that are impossible to know (will the shooters show up for Houston, will LMA and Tony Parker show up for SA?)

I think it is a coin flip. If the Rockets don't close out in 6, I have a hard time believing they will win in San Antonio in game 7.

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I pretty much agree, coin flip but Spurs have the edge in game seven. Looking forward to the series!

Watch listed. Although judging from the dialogue so far I doubt that I will get into this sesspool thread.

I'll leave it here. This is a great matchup and very even. I think the Spurs will enjoy playing against the Rox defense and these will be relatively high scoring games. The x-factor is the Spurs bigs. If LA, Pau, Lee and Dedmon can really and truly dominate the glass while not getting killed too badly on the peri meter then we'll see the Spurs win.

The 2nd x-factor is Ariza on Kawhi. If Kawhi doesn't score 30+ each night then the Rockets win.

I think the most deciding factor in the series will be the Rockets 3 shooting. It's really hard to beat them when they're shooting 40%. I doubt they will do that, though. I think the series will either be Rockets in 6 or Spurs in 7.

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The 2nd x-factor is Ariza on Kawhi. If Kawhi doesn't score 30+ each night then the Rockets win.

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Especially the fact that Houston doesn't have a second option to guard Kawhi. If Ariza is getting tired or gets in foul trouble, then what is plan B? Beverley is too small - Kawhi will just back him down. Kawhi will blow past Anderson and Gordon and Harden are poor defenders.

If the Rockets try to go small ball with Ariza at 4, then if the Spurs stay big (because really who cares if LMA or Lee is guarding Ariza?) then the Rockets have huge matchup problems on defense.

Capela -> LMA
Ariza -> Lee
Gordon -> Kawhi
Harden -> Green
Bev - > Parker

That's going to be a beating for Houston unless Gordon and Bev are getting clean looks. But the other way around, because Ariza isn't really a threat to put the ball on the floor consistently and Kawhi can guard players much smaller, you can play Lee or LMA on Ariza without worrying.

Having Bev helps the Rockets a lot defensively with every team in the WC except the Spurs because the Spurs don't really rely on PGs as much because Parker is way past his prime and Patty is super streaky. But against a team like GSW or LAC where their PG runs the team, it helps a ton.

So Ariza being able to man up on Kawhi for 44m/game and hitting some timely shots is going to be hugely important.

Watching these highlights from this season, Ariza's defense doesn't scare me too much.

Honestly, if I were the Rockets I would try Beverly on Kawhi in short stretches. He's a bulldog and could cause some havoc when its a change up.

primomosquito said:

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Ag Natural said:

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Watch listed. Although judging from the dialogue so far I doubt that I will get into this sesspool thread.

I'll leave it here. This is a great matchup and very even. I think the Spurs will enjoy playing against the Rox defense and these will be relatively high scoring games. The x-factor is the Spurs bigs. If LA, Pau, Lee and Dedmon can really and truly dominate the glass while not getting killed too badly on the peri meter then we'll see the Spurs win.

The 2nd x-factor is Ariza on Kawhi. If Kawhi doesn't score 30+ each night then the Rockets win.

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You think this is a cesspool? I think it's been pretty civil. As a Houston fan, I respect the Spurs and generally cheer for them when they're not playing Houston. It's pretty hard to find something not to like about Pop, Ginobli, Leonard, or Robinson and Duncan for that matter. LMA is a POS, but he's the exception.

This is the Canadian version of a cesspool, I think.

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Sure I've seen worse. I'm in the same boat in that I generally like the Rockets despite being a life long Spurs fan. I like D'Antoni and I'm one of the few SA natives who likes Houston (the city). It will be interesting to see where this goes.

Guitarsoup said:

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How is LMA a POS? Gutless? Sure. But a POS? Eh. He doesn't seem like he is a bad dude, isn't dirty, isn't a flopper, etc.

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I've never been able to stand him. I'm sure it began with him at tu and didn't help when he owned Omer Asik in the 2014 playoffs.

So, the consensus seem to be that the biggest X-factor is the Rockets' 3-shooting: if it's on, they likely win; if it's off, they likely lose. But it's not as if that's a random occurrence, right? If a traditionally hot 3-pt shooting team goes cold, isn't it probably because the other team did something deliberate to take that away from them, rather than them mysteriously being "off"? Yes, a player can have an "off" game, but if a whole team has an "off" game, or an "off" series, then ... no, something specific is happening. Either the other team is simply more talented, or they specifically sought to take away the 3.

So the question is: whatever OKC did, can the Spurs do it too? More to the point: Will they?

Game 4 on Sunday in Houston got moved to 8pm, Just fyi

WTF. Why?

I didn't see a reason, but the Celtics-Wizards game is at 5:30 on TNT so this allows for more time in between games

The rockets get PLENTY of open looks against most teams, including the thunder. They were just straight up missing wide open 3s a lot, it had nothing to do with it being contested or well defended. They've had streaks of good and bad all year. They need the good to show up this series because it didn't last series.

Now obviously, San antonio will be better about cutting down on those wide open looks, but we'll still get our looks and we have to hit them.

CFTXAG10 said:

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Game 4 on Sunday in Houston got moved to 8pm, Just fyi

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Wtf

Friend of mine is taking these to the game tonight:

"They were just straight up missing wide open 3s a lot, it had nothing to do with it being contested or well defended."

But that makes no sense. Teams shoot the 3 better uncontested than contested; otherwise the opposing team wouldn't bother to contest them. That's what I'm saying: when a team goes cold from 3-pt land for a whole series, there is a reason. It's not just bad luck or whatever. The Rockets aren't going to magically rediscover the deep ball against the Spurs. They may indeed get it back, but if they do it will just mean that OKC had a way to shut it down that the Spurs don't.

I guess we just disagree on OKC "having a way to shut it down" when they obviously didn't. We just weren't shooting good. It's not like 3 pt shooting is something you have to have a consistent percentage with under the same conditions week in and week out.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Rockets are the only Western Conference team Tim Duncan never eliminated in the playoffs. (Because they were never in the playoffs long enough, if at all.)

Shame he didn't stick around one more season.

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Supersonics?

BTKAG97 said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Rockets are the only Western Conference team Tim Duncan never eliminated in the playoffs. (Because they were never in the playoffs long enough, if at all.)

Shame he didn't stick around one more season.

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Supersonics?

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Timmy beat the Sonics twice.

It would be nice if Ryan Anderson wasn't a bag of ***** this series.

Ryan34 said:

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It would be nice if Ryan Anderson wasn't a bag of ***** this series.

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I agree that he was horrible, but just him posting up 2-3 feet behind the 3 pt line and drawing a defender opens up the middle considerably.

Ryan34 said:

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It would be nice if Ryan Anderson wasn't a bag of ***** this series.

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Agree to disagree

GO

SPURS

GO

Start the game

ROCKETS

Chuck loves churros

Some Spurs fans were giving Harden a lot $*** during pregame warmups!! Harden just smiled..

Spurs fans are ******* morons.

brotheraggie said:

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Some Spurs fans were giving Harden a lot $*** during pregame warmups!! Harden just smiled..

Spurs fans are ******* morons.

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Probably hating on his defensive play making abilities, or lack thereof