EPL Relegation Watch (2025-26 Season)

18,079 Views | 228 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by kb91
Showstopper
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I'm going to age myself, but I remember when the NFL had replay the first time in the 80's, but then got rid of it because it was interrupting the game too much and wasn't consistent (sound familiar?). Then they brought it back in the late 90's because, frankly, when you have a televised product where people can see replays and see the screw ups, the viewers get frustrated if you don't fix the screw ups. They first just brought it back with the challenge system, which helped decrease interruptions, but more importantly they got a lot better at making replay calls more consistent (not perfect, but it was much better than before).

I really think the main problem is inconsistency.
deadbq03
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I get it. And that was my main argument when I would defend VAR: that the ship has sailed and we'd be even more pissed off if we got rid of it.

But having watched a ton of Wrexham this year, I just don't feel that way anymore. I don't miss VAR at all. Even when it doesn't go my way. And I almost don't have time to bother to care. Certainly during the game there's maybe time for one replay and a quick comment from the commentator, but it's not like US sports where the clock stops and the production crew can dwell on a mistake. More often than not I hear commentators simply say that the ref is having none of it (appeals for a call) and everyone moves on because the game ain't stopping.

I'm sure I'll upset some folks by saying this (including some of our refs) but I feel like soccer is far more of an art than a science, and referees have to manage the grey areas of the game in ways that they don't have to in other sports. VAR impedes that by forcing them to make calls that they might not ordinarily make based on their own personal style and the flow of a particular game.
Aston94
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Furlock Bones said:

there were multiple fouls that could/should have been pens on Arsenal players. it took 5 minutes for the ref to find a way to disallow the goal.

it was the wrong decision.

If you want to get into a much larger discussion about the things that are allowed in a penalty box every single corner, and if they want to generally start calling those fouls more often, then I am all for it, let's have that discussion.

But the holding on corners is never called, it just isn't, ever. When have you seen a pk given off a foul on a corner kick? Never, and if you take a picture, like the ones in the West Ham-Arsenal game, of the action when the ball is in the air for any corner, you are going to see the same thing.

But putting your arm across a goal keeper, preventing him from jumping and catching the ball, actually holding him down, is a foul. Would West Ham have scored if not for the foul? No, he catches the ball.

I can't believe I am being an Arsenal defender, but here we are. It was a foul which led to a goal. It had to be called. Fouls that don't lead to goals (ala the ones the Arsenal players were committing) are just not reviewed. Do I like it? No, but within the context of the current laws of the game the right call was made.
Showstopper
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Maybe. I think the difference between Championship games and Premier League is, even though there is televised coverage of Championship games, it is still primarily a live audience product. I think PL is different because it is primarily a televised product that has a live audience (I don't know what the relative proportions are, but my wild guess is Premier League tv revenue for a club is probably 10x that of a Championship club, maybe more, I don't know. Live matchday revenue will be more, too, but probably not 10x, especially if you exclude the largest PL clubs with large stadiums at the top of the table… and Spurs lol).
deadbq03
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Yeah those are good points. The money involved definitely makes a difference.

And I will add that all VARs are not created equal… I've always noted that the Bundesliga does a much better job with its centralized model (all VAR refs are in the same building in Koln for all matches). It leads to a culture of similar standards. When I watch Bundesliga, I'm not nearly as bothered by calls as I am in EPL or UEFA competitions.

All that being said, I'm no longer a supporter of VAR. Again - I'm not dead set against it either, but I think the game is probably better off without it. And if it stays, the game needs some major rules changes to accommodate that level of scrutiny and make it appropriate (such as van Basten's idea to scrap offside entirely).
Furlock Bones
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if the "hold" on Raya was as clear cut as you and others are saying, then it would not have taken 5 minutes to come to that conclusion. but, Pablo was himself getting fouled at the same time Raya is jumping into him. Even Peter Schmeichel said the whole thing was ridiculous and wrong.
CrockerAg98
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Schmeichel said it was wrong, but Rooney and Alan f'n Shearer say clear foul.

I think, by letter of the law, it's an infraction. Based on what they call (or don't) each week, I'd say no.

But pick a direction and go. Staring at it for 5 minutes only causes more confusion and, imo, emboldens the argument that he was really trying to find something.

If it was clear cut, it shouldn't have taken that long. If it takes 5 minutes to decide if there was something there, let it go.
deadbq03
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Yeah, I'd love to see a timer. If you can't tell in 30 seconds that the ref got it wrong, then you're no longer correcting a clear and obvious error. Shoot even 30 seconds might be too generous.

There are times when a ref simply has a bad view of an incident and the replays are clear - all the announcers are unanimously in favor of an overturn, and it happens. But it seems like most times it's still a judgment call. Folks are split on the issue (like this one). So just quickly say "it's not an obvious error" and move on.
Furlock Bones
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this is what they need. the ref needs to be on a VAR clock. the whole idea is to fix egregious errors like a player standing 3 feet offside and scoring the winning goal. 30-45 seconds. if the ref can't figure it out in that time frame, then the on the field calls stand.

deadbq03
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Yep. And do offside like MLS.

I think that kind of VAR would be a net gain… correcting the most egregious mistakes.

Or like I said earlier - make it a coach/captain challenge system. If you're sure you got screwed by a call, wager a yellow card for time-wasting on it… otherwise - stop whining and play on.
Aston94
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Furlock Bones said:

if the "hold" on Raya was as clear cut as you and others are saying, then it would not have taken 5 minutes to come to that conclusion. but, Pablo was himself getting fouled at the same time Raya is jumping into him. Even Peter Schmeichel said the whole thing was ridiculous and wrong.

The fact it took 5 minutes is ridiculous, no matter the foul or the occasion. I am certainly not defending in any way, shape, matter or form the VAR system in the EPL, it is a joke.

With that said, in my opinion they got this one right. They have to give keepers the opportunity to make plays. Period, end of discussion.

The other fouls and interpretations around it are, to me, simply talking points. And I like Schmeichel, but if he feels that wasnt a foul on the keeper then he's wrong.
Aston94
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The VAR Gods giveth, the VAR Gods taketh away.
deadbq03
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Hull City up 2-0 at Millwall in the playoff… they've been fun to watch.
Dre_00
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Mathys Tel scores a goal and then gives away the penalty that ties the game. Also known as a Spurs Double.
Showstopper
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Don't worry, West Ham, you can always depend on Spurs to drop points.
Aston94
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Weekend Results:
Palace 2-2 Everton
Forest 1-1 Newcastle
West Ham 0-1 Arsenal
Leeds 1-1 Tottenham

Current Standings
Team. Matches Played. Points.
14. Leeds United 36 44
15. Crystal Palace 34 44
16. Nottingham Forest 36 43
17. Spurs 36 38
18. West Ham 36 36
19. Burnley 36 21
20. Wolves 36 18


And then there were two....Leeds, Palace and Forest are all safe following the point each gained and the points West Ham dropped. West Ham are 2 points behind Spurs with two matches remaining for each club.

Remaining matches:

Tottenham--At Chelsea, Home v. Everton
West Ham--At Newcastle, Home v. Leeds

Will be a wild ride for the next two weekends.
Aston94
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Little update on playoffs at each level:

Championship
Promoted to EPL:
1. Coventry
2. Ipswich

Playoffs:
Millwall (3) v. Hull (6)--Hull and Millwall tied the first leg 0-0 and Hull won the second leg 2-0, advancing to the playoff finals

Southampton (4) v. Middlesbrough (5)--Clubs tied 0-0 in first leg, second leg will be at Southampton tomorrow (May 12)

Final--Friday, May 22

Relegated to League One:
Oxford United
Leicester City
Sheffield Wednesday

League One
Promoted to Championship:
1. Lincoln City
2. Cardiff City

Playoffs:
Stockport County (3) v. Stevenage (6)--Stockport won the first leg 1-0, second leg will be at Stockport County on Wednesday
Bolton Wanderers (5) v. Bradford City (4)--Bolton won the first leg 1-0, second leg will be at Bradford on Thursday

Final--Sunday, May 24 at 7:00am

Relegated to League 2:
Exeter City
Port Vale
Rotherham United
Northampton Town


League 2
Promoted to League One:
1. Bromley
2. MK Dons
3. Cambridge United

Playoffs:
Salford City (4) v. Grimsby Town (7)--Salford City lead 2-1 after leg one, with the second leg on Friday at Salford City
Notts County (5) v. Chesterfield (6)--Notts County lead 1-0 after leg one, with the second leg on Friday at Notts County.

Final--Monday, May 25 at 9:00am

Relegated to Non-league football:
Harrogate Town
Barrow
jessexy
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Nope. DFW for me
peace....jessexy
jessexy
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Aston94 said:

Furlock Bones said:

there were multiple fouls that could/should have been pens on Arsenal players. it took 5 minutes for the ref to find a way to disallow the goal.

it was the wrong decision.

If you want to get into a much larger discussion about the things that are allowed in a penalty box every single corner, and if they want to generally start calling those fouls more often, then I am all for it, let's have that discussion.

But the holding on corners is never called, it just isn't, ever. When have you seen a pk given off a foul on a corner kick? Never, and if you take a picture, like the ones in the West Ham-Arsenal game, of the action when the ball is in the air for any corner, you are going to see the same thing.

But putting your arm across a goal keeper, preventing him from jumping and catching the ball, actually holding him down, is a foul. Would West Ham have scored if not for the foul? No, he catches the ball.

I can't believe I am being an Arsenal defender, but here we are. It was a foul which led to a goal. It had to be called. Fouls that don't lead to goals (ala the ones the Arsenal players were committing) are just not reviewed. Do I like it? No, but within the context of the current laws of the game the right call was made.

I didn't want to argue with you as you make a very valid point. But one thing to point out is that sometimes they are called when a player is being fouled. Alot depends on the position of the ball. Raya had both hands on the ball and the arm across his chest directly impacted his ability to catch that ball. VAR was correct to send that down and the referee was correct to overrule the goal.

On the flip side, if the ball went over Raya's head and passed over very clearly and then landed on the head of Mavropanos(?) as he was being wrapped up by Declan Rice, then that should have been called a foul just the same. If the ref missed it, then VAR should have sent it down for a second look as well for clear and obvious error by the referee.
peace....jessexy
deadbq03
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3 missed penalty calls so far in Southampton - Middlesbrough. This ref is working real hard to try and make me like VAR again.
deadbq03
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Southampton won 2-1 in extra time, but get your popcorn ready because it might not stand due to misconduct.

The EFL are investigating Southampton allegedly spying on Middlesbrough's training, and Boro folks are confident the evidence is strong enough that Saints will have to forfeit and Boro will get into the finals. Announcers even talked about it during the match - they're planning to return to training on Friday, which coincides with the day that the EFL is supposedly going to render a judgement.

Many other EFL clubs are reviewing security camera footage, and supposedly two others now say they have evidence that Southampton did the same against them.

Not necessarily saying it's true - but the turnaround that Southampton had this year was tremendous. They were legitimately at risk of relegation until they sacked their manager and replaced him with their youth/reserves coach. Now they've won 19 of their last 24 in all competitions and their only loss came against Man City in the Cup.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/middlesbrough-players-keep-training-club-112019888.html
CrockerAg98
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Rob Mac and Ryan Reynolds are behind this. DQ Southhampton, demand Wrexham got screwed out of a potential 9 figure pay day, start all over.

agdoc2001
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The Saints ain't so saintly
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Showstopper
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This just popped up on Twitter. (Note: I'm not posting to drive sales of Daily Mail+; not plus Daily Mail is sufficient for my Daily Mail requirements lol. I just thought the picture of a guy behind a tree with a smartphone in 2026 was a little hilarious for some reason. James Bond would not be impressed.)
AustinScubaAg
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Showstopper said:

This just popped up on Twitter. (Note: I'm not posting to drive sales of Daily Mail+; not plus Daily Mail is sufficient for my Daily Mail requirements lol. I just thought the picture of a guy behind a tree with a smartphone in 2026 was a little hilarious for some reason. James Bond would not be impressed.)


Southampton could get hammered for this.
deadbq03
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Yeah when I heard about this during the first leg matches, they were kinda acting like it wasn't gonna be a big deal because of what happened to Leeds like 9 years ago in very similar circumstances … Leeds just got slapped with a modest 6 figure fine.

But now everyone is pointing out the fact that when Leeds did it, there was no explicit rule against it - they just had to punish them under some vague catch-all sportsmanship rule. Then they made a rule to cover this. So the circumstances are very different.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see two different punishments - an immediate forfeit of the playoff matches because they have solid evidence they did it to Boro… and then later in June maybe a 2nd punishment based on if they find out that it was widespread. The first will absolutely hurt bad, but the 2nd could be outright crushing.
Aston94
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deadbq03 said:

Yeah when I heard about this during the first leg matches, they were kinda acting like it wasn't gonna be a big deal because of what happened to Leeds like 9 years ago in very similar circumstances … Leeds just got slapped with a modest 6 figure fine.

But now everyone is pointing out the fact that when Leeds did it, there was no explicit rule against it - they just had to punish them under some vague catch-all sportsmanship rule. Then they made a rule to cover this. So the circumstances are very different.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see two different punishments - an immediate forfeit of the playoff matches because they have solid evidence they did it to Boro… and then later in June maybe a 2nd punishment based on if they find out that it was widespread. The first will absolutely hurt bad, but the 2nd could be outright crushing.


The pace with which the FA and EFL move I would not expect anything immediate. More likely a point deduction next season whichever league they are in.
Mathguy64
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I expect Boro to sue the crap out of both the FA and Southhampton if that loss isn't voided/reversed immediately. There are literally hundreds of millions on the line for them in terms of a possible promotion to the PL
wangus12
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Aston94 said:

deadbq03 said:

Yeah when I heard about this during the first leg matches, they were kinda acting like it wasn't gonna be a big deal because of what happened to Leeds like 9 years ago in very similar circumstances … Leeds just got slapped with a modest 6 figure fine.

But now everyone is pointing out the fact that when Leeds did it, there was no explicit rule against it - they just had to punish them under some vague catch-all sportsmanship rule. Then they made a rule to cover this. So the circumstances are very different.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see two different punishments - an immediate forfeit of the playoff matches because they have solid evidence they did it to Boro… and then later in June maybe a 2nd punishment based on if they find out that it was widespread. The first will absolutely hurt bad, but the 2nd could be outright crushing.


The pace with which the FA and EFL move I would not expect anything immediate. More likely a point deduction next season whichever league they are in.

Middlesborough is apparently returning to training this week. The Playoff final is on the 23rd. Rumor is that a decision could come down by Friday.
deadbq03
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There's strong indications that EFL is going to come out with an initial ruling on Friday. Saints are balking (of course) saying they don't have time to make a proper defense.

To Mathguy's point - it's one thing if this were discovered after season was fully over… this happened and was discovered and reported to the EFL before the first leg of a playoff for promotion. Boro would have a strong case to make for financial harm… especially if the evidence is strong that this occurred and then the EFL sits on it and does nothing.
Aston94
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Well maybe I will be pleasantly surprised and they will make a decision quickly. So are we assuming the penalty for watching practice is forfeiture of the match?
deadbq03
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Maybe. I just watched a thing where they brought in some legal and business experts and said it's unlikely but possible. They said there's actually not a ton of risk of a suit from Middlesbrough because it'd be impossible to prove they actually lost because of the spying. But they also said they'd expect something in the neighborhood of a 6pt deduction next season + a modest fine… but they run a risk of not being able to enforce the pts deduction if Saints get promoted… so they might feel like they need to do something firm that nails them now (forfeiting the game).

But regarding moving fast, they said the EFL invoked the same expedited process that evidently made a decision on West Brom's sanctions after just a day of deliberations… so pretty impressive that they can move that fast when they want to. And the panel also said they'd have to move super fast if they want a forfeit because it's not fair to Hull to switch their opponent late into next week whilst Middlesbrough can spend all their time focusing on Hull while they hope for a forfeit.
deadbq03
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Evidently tickets aren't on sale for the final yet, and Hull City released a statement to their fans:

Quote:

Hull have issued a statement saying full details of the ticket sales process would be communicated "in due course."

"Until then, we kindly ask supporters to refrain from contacting the ticket office while final details are being confirmed," the statement added.

"We appreciate your continued patience and support."


https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48767743/hull-city-ask-fans-patience-amid-southampton-spygate-confusion

Article also says the hearing is likely happening today.

Don't want to link more stuff, but also, evidently Saints released a statement saying tickets would go on sale Friday, but then took that down… presumably because EFL forced them to.
Showstopper
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I don't have any real strong feelings toward either team in the abstract, but I do want Southampton to get replaced. Unlike a lot of things where there might be inadvertent violations, you don't accidentally end up on the other end of England behind a tree shooting a cell phone video.

"Oh, was that wrong? Were we not supposed to do that? We have to say, we had no idea. Our intern is just an enthusiast of shooting videos of training pitches, and their session just happened to get in the way."
deadbq03
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Yeah and evidently they're not going to deny it happened - they're trying to build a defense around the rule being bad and not mattering… to which the folks on the panel I watched said of course it matters or you wouldn't have bothered trying to do it in the first place.

The legal expert I watched seemed to think they'll issue a fine and a 6 pt deduction, but he acknowledged that it's extremely tricky for the EFL because that penalty is worthless if they get promoted.
 
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