mjhhawk said:
We are beating ND. I just feel that one. At sips and LSU should be assumed losses to everyone except the ultimate sunshine pumpers (and please keep up the optimism - this board needs you). I think we can get South Carolina and Florida at home. For me the tricky game seems to be at Missouri. The third SEC game in a row on the road. That just seems like a spot where all teams historically falter. I'm choosing to believe in Elko and say we are going 10-2. If we lose at Missouri then we will surprise either LSU or the sips.
I like your realistic optimism. I think the road game at Notre Dame is winnable, but the road games at LSU and Texas are probable losses. I am predicting 9-3 with losses to Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas, but I agree that the road game at Missouri will be tricky. I am more worried about a road game at Missouri than home games against Florida and South Carolina for several reasons.
1. Both teams will be coming off a bye week, but we will be playing our 3rd road game in 4 weeks.
2. Missouri has won 10 consecutive home games, including 8 against Power 4 opponents and 7 against SEC opponents, since a 49-39 home loss to LSU on 10/7/2023.
3. We have lost 12 of our last 14 true road games, including 7 consecutive November or later road games since a 34-13 win at Tennessee on 12/19/2020. 3 of those 7 losses were by 10+ points each. If we have another inexplicable late season loss as a favorite, Missouri is where it happens.
11/13/2021: 29-19 loss at Ole Miss
11/27/2021: 27-24 loss at LSU
11/12/2022: 13-10 loss at Auburn
11/4/2023: 38-35 loss at Ole Miss
11/25/2023: 42-30 loss at LSU
11/2/2024: 44-20 loss at South Carolina
11/23/2024: 43-41 4-OT loss at Auburn
If we go undefeated at home and win the road game at Arkansas, the road games at Notre Dame and Missouri will probably mean the difference between 8-4 and 10-2.