Read the eyewall as well. It's the sister site to space City weather.

Good point. I will add that tropical tidbits is not analysis/commentary just the model data, whereas the eyewall, space city, weather, etc mostly just analysis

Tropical Tidbits is a good source of info. I think most of the tropical weather gurus trust the European (ECMWF) model over the American (GFS) model, although neither performed well with Beryl.

Pasquale Liucci said:

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Good point. I will add that tropical tidbits is not analysis/commentary just the model data, whereas the eyewall, space city, weather, etc mostly just analysis

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Tropical tidbits does have commentary via videos usually once a day when there are active storms. The videos are very educational if you want to learn about factors affecting storm formation, growth, and steering.

Fitch said:

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The 6z GFS is back in business!

Develops the current MDR wave in the WCAR and goes thru the Yucatán Channel into the GoM and heads to Texas as a strong H3. pic.twitter.com/q0ZSMg0Dnf

— The Meteorological Eclipse (@reid_lt) August 3, 2024

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If you have enough followers on Twitter you get paid for interactions. I instantly block guys like this that are only after just that. It is going to be an active hurricane season so this will happen a lot. If SCW or Jeff Linder aren't brining it up then just ignore it.

Lindner has a youtube weather update and did mention 'a wave' to keep an eye on.

What does a wave mean ?

I guess they do see something out there near the MDR (main developement region) to keep an eye on. Watch the video and he talks about it ....I think it's near the end of the video near the 7:12 min mark.

Oh that's good to know, I usually just click straight to current storms and then go to most recent initializations. Thanks for the heads up

Woah it's like people hoping for another storm on here

At this point there seems to be enough noise something might be down there but who knows what and where it will go.

Def not hoping. I wish we had 60 degrees low humidity and sun 12 months of the year. Never a weather threat.

girlfriend_experience said:

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What does a wave mean ?

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It is generally a linear low pressure feature instead of a closed off low with a circulation. They call it a wave because it shows up as a curve in an otherwise relatively linear pressure contour line and moves across over time like a wave riding across the contour line.

Ag06Law said:

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Honestly, if you don't have any training or experience as to what these models mean, you should probably not be looking at raw model data and trying to do anything with it. We're talking about one run of one model at far timeframes. My forecasting professor used to say that the only reason to look at a weather model beyond 10 days is to figure out what's not going to happen. These people who go around posting screenshots of single model runs on X are just putting out clickbait, and sadly there are far too many people willing to fall for it without knowing what it actually is or how to analyze it in context.

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Anyone who has followed this for a decent amount of time knows that there are often these rogue models that show direct Houston hits.

Hell, that storm that's going to hit Florida had one single model run that showed a direct Houston hit.

Ag06Law said:

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Honestly, if you don't have any training or experience as to what these models mean, you should probably not be looking at raw model data and trying to do anything with it. We're talking about one run of one model at far timeframes. My forecasting professor used to say that the only reason to look at a weather model beyond 10 days is to figure out what's not going to happen. These people who go around posting screenshots of single model runs on X are just putting out clickbait, and sadly there are far too many people willing to fall for it without knowing what it actually is or how to analyze it in context.

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I will agree with you for the most part, but there are times when looking at models that far out can be at least somewhat useful. If you see one run of the GFS showing a storm over Houston on day 16, it is not time to start packing the car to evacuate. But if you have a trip planned to the central Caribbean in 8-10 days and the GFS and European have both been consistently showing a storm developing there for several runs in a row, it can be a good sign that you might want to start looking at possible alternatives so you can have information to make the kind of decisions you might need to make at 2-3 days out.

What's the difference in the 'GFS' vs 'GEFS' ?

And what is the European model shortened to?

txags92 said:

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Ag06Law said:

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Honestly, if you don't have any training or experience as to what these models mean, you should probably not be looking at raw model data and trying to do anything with it. We're talking about one run of one model at far timeframes. My forecasting professor used to say that the only reason to look at a weather model beyond 10 days is to figure out what's not going to happen. These people who go around posting screenshots of single model runs on X are just putting out clickbait, and sadly there are far too many people willing to fall for it without knowing what it actually is or how to analyze it in context.

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I will agree with you for the most part, but there are times when looking at models that far out can be at least somewhat useful. If you see one run of the GFS showing a storm over Houston on day 16, it is not time to start packing the car to evacuate. But if you have a trip planned to the central Caribbean in 8-10 days and the GFS and European have both been consistently showing a storm developing there for several runs in a row, it can be a good sign that you might want to start looking at possible alternatives so you can have information to make the kind of decisions you might need to make at 2-3 days out.

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I don't necessarily disagree with you, but that's not what I'm talking about. You're talking about looking back at several runs, maybe comparing to a different model as well. I'm talking about several recent posts in which posters have posted screenshots of one model run to basically induce panic.

CAR96 said:

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What's the difference in the 'GFS' vs 'GEFS' ?

And what is the European model shortened to?

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GEFS is the ensemble component of the GFS model. There are a number of different ensemble members in which they change the initial inputs slightly to see how it changes the model.

Euro is ECMWF.

txags92 said:

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Ag06Law said:

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Honestly, if you don't have any training or experience as to what these models mean, you should probably not be looking at raw model data and trying to do anything with it. We're talking about one run of one model at far timeframes. My forecasting professor used to say that the only reason to look at a weather model beyond 10 days is to figure out what's not going to happen. These people who go around posting screenshots of single model runs on X are just putting out clickbait, and sadly there are far too many people willing to fall for it without knowing what it actually is or how to analyze it in context.

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I will agree with you for the most part, but there are times when looking at models that far out can be at least somewhat useful. If you see one run of the GFS showing a storm over Houston on day 16, it is not time to start packing the car to evacuate. But if you have a trip planned to the central Caribbean in 8-10 days and the GFS and European have both been consistently showing a storm developing there for several runs in a row, it can be a good sign that you might want to start looking at possible alternatives so you can have information to make the kind of decisions you might need to make at 2-3 days out.

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Yep. Like the tweet posted the other day, they have a hard time predicting simply the high temp more than 7 days out, let alone a damned hurricane.

I really should have been a weatherman. Because there is no wrong!

AlaskanAg99 said:

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I really should have been a weatherman. Because there is no wrong!

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There is only one profession where one can be so consistently wrong and not get fired. Politician.

For those who failed or slept through Basic Weather Education taught in the Government Run Schools. Here are a couple of videos on the Madden-Julian Osculation (MJO). The MJO is a major weather driver both in summer and winter. Read Proverbs 22:3 "A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished."

buddybee said:

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For those who failed or slept through Basic Weather Education taught in the Government Run Schools. Here are a couple of videos on the Madden-Julian Osculation (MJO). The MJO is a major weather driver both in summer and winter. Read Proverbs 22:3 "A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished."

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Our comrade leader, Centerpoint, and Matt Lanza have it all under control I'm sure.

Red Pear Realty said:

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Y'all had weather classes? That's wild, we had football at my high school.

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of course weather patterns and climate are taught in Texas public schools. Probably sounded better in your head.



Protected from:

Red Pear Realty said:

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Y'all had weather classes? That's wild, we had football at my high school.

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We had a section on weather/meteorology during 8th grade Earth Science. But that was in 1984, so no idea what they are teaching these days. If weather isn't on the TAKS test, I doubt they cover it.

do we not like Matt Lanza anymore?

Close! 1A high school behind the pine curtain.