NOAA has this thing never making it west of Florida, and gone by the end of the weekend
*****2024 Hurricane Season*****
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Last: 1 mo ago by Cromagnum
Seems to be on drugs compared to everything else out thereBayAg_14 said:
Fear pron is strong with the 12Z GFS.
The model I posted is not for the low over Cuba. It has a low forming in the Caribbean late next week. Something to keep an eye on.
Texaggie7nine said:BayAg_14 said:
Fear pron is strong with the 12Z GFS.
CAR, change your username?
BayAg_14 said:
Fear pron is strong with the 12Z GFS.
Which one of you is putting out GFS models and just trolling this thread?
I knew someone on here would post that minute I saw it.
I also like the fact its always a direct hit on Houston. Not to the north or south but always barreling right over downtown.
I also like the fact its always a direct hit on Houston. Not to the north or south but always barreling right over downtown.
BayAg_14 said:
The model I posted is not for the low over Cuba. It has a low forming in the Caribbean late next week. Something to keep an eye on.
Yeah, and the prior two GFS runs don't even have a storm in the Gulf in that timeframe, period. Pretty irresponsible to post one model run at 288 hours without any context, but you do you.
Not trolling. You have stars. Hide me if you wish.
Again, just a little context next time. CAR96 might be half way to North Dakota now after seeing that.
I didn't accuse you of trolling, I said you posted without any context. Models show crazy stuff that far out. Most are not even worth discussing, particularly when it pops up a cat 3 that it hasn't shown at all on prior model runs. But you probably didn't bother to look at those prior runs before running here to post that.BayAg_14 said:
Not trolling. You have stars. Hide me if you wish.
No… just watching on Twitter how Lanza and DaBuh are arguing.
gougler08 said:Seems to be on drugs compared to everything else out thereBayAg_14 said:
Fear pron is strong with the 12Z GFS.
That's not for the system near Cuba. That's (for now) a phantom one thats supposed to form later.
I look at every model run of the GFS and Euro this time of year. I'll be happy to provide more context for you on all of my posts in the future. I posted this one as a warning that you will see people posting that model for clicks as fear pron online.
Yep, that GFS run shows landfall here on the 13th.
Way too far out to put any stock into, but a good reminder to keep an eye on it.
Way too far out to put any stock into, but a good reminder to keep an eye on it.
FL west coast getting a full tea bag drag.
spadilly said:
Yep, that GFS run shows landfall here on the 13th.
Way too far out to put any stock into, but a good reminder to keep an eye on it.
18z has it giving New Orleans a bath.
Euro shows nothing so far.
The 6z GFS is back in business!
— The Meteorological Eclipse (@reid_lt) August 3, 2024
Develops the current MDR wave in the WCAR and goes thru the Yucatán Channel into the GoM and heads to Texas as a strong H3. pic.twitter.com/q0ZSMg0Dnf
The 12Z run no longer shows this system, which just goes to show that the GFS should be taken with a grain of salt.
Fitch said:The 6z GFS is back in business!
— The Meteorological Eclipse (@reid_lt) August 3, 2024
Develops the current MDR wave in the WCAR and goes thru the Yucatán Channel into the GoM and heads to Texas as a strong H3. pic.twitter.com/q0ZSMg0Dnf
…and the 12Z, which finished running before your post was made, does nothing with it.
Ag06Law said:Fitch said:The 6z GFS is back in business!
— The Meteorological Eclipse (@reid_lt) August 3, 2024
Develops the current MDR wave in the WCAR and goes thru the Yucatán Channel into the GoM and heads to Texas as a strong H3. pic.twitter.com/q0ZSMg0Dnf
…and the 12Z, which finished running before your post was made, does nothing with it.
This person 100% should put a disclaimer that they are showing the model run starting 7 days in the future and runs to 2 weeks out. Hurricane models are terrible with active storms 7 days out much less storm that haven't even begun to form.
Yes. This guy shows on my X feed a lot. During Beryl he was pretty close at least in the ball park as far as my untrained weatherman eye could tell but he seems to be very excited to follow and storm track and see the destruction left behind and how powerful weather can be.
I guess that is where I hesitate to… I can't get excited about weather that does damage to property or people.
I guess that is where I hesitate to… I can't get excited about weather that does damage to property or people.
Fitch said:The 6z GFS is back in business!
— The Meteorological Eclipse (@reid_lt) August 3, 2024
Develops the current MDR wave in the WCAR and goes thru the Yucatán Channel into the GoM and heads to Texas as a strong H3. pic.twitter.com/q0ZSMg0Dnf
Can anyone translate this?
Yeah ignore everything until we're 3-4 days out from landfall.
It really is pathetic how certain posters like buddybee and rancher like to troll people about hurricanes
The tropical wave developing behind this current TD headed to Florida will develop in the western Caribbean before crossing the Yucatn peninsula and continuing to strengthen in the Gulf on its way to Texas where it looks to hit as a Category 3 per this particular model run
Have you not been paying attention to the discussion? The GFS 12Z run completely dissipates the tropical wave.
Not sure if serious but he asked for a translation of the tweet
What is the difference in the 0, 6, 12, 18 z ?
I'm a she, and I read that as a translation of the tweet.
00z is 6pm CST/7pm CDT
So then you just increment from there. Models are typically run 4x daily so every 6 hours
So then you just increment from there. Models are typically run 4x daily so every 6 hours
Time of day the model is initialized. (The z stands for Zulu time, aka UTC)
Ok, going to ask another dumb question.
If a 'storm' shows up in a 0z, 6z…. Should it show up in a 12z, 18z?
Why or how would it disappear?
If a 'storm' shows up in a 0z, 6z…. Should it show up in a 12z, 18z?
Why or how would it disappear?
They change the variables in each run slightly tweeking maybe where high pressure is, wind shear, etc.
So is Tropicaltidbits.com the best place to go?
Use the "GFS' and then the 06.12,18 runs?
Use the "GFS' and then the 06.12,18 runs?
Tropical tidbits is probably the best site as far as having everything right at your fingertips, easy to consume, etc. can see the rolling previous 24 hour model initiations, etc
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