agz win said:

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Storms forming and rolling in now. Ground still saturated. Really heavy air.

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I'm not sure how we survived that.

So I guess technically we have Alberto. Did anyone have any issues, or was this a sneeze and you missed it scenario for most everybody?

Here it comes!

Euro and GFS in agreement of storm forming. Fire up the hype machine.

Whats the time frame to my front door on that bad boy?

Somewhere around July 7 is what they showed on tv yesterday.

Even if it doesn't make landfall, a storm in the Gulf means a few days off of work for me, so I vote it weasels it's way in to the Gulf and peters out.

Has a storm ever petered out once it reaches the gulf? I thought every time it intensifies once it passes Cuba.

I think landfall is inevitable once it's in the Gulf, I was just being selfish.

Maybe its happened before but a storm dying off in the gulf sounds as likely as extinguishing a fire with gasoline.

it's always possible the conditions might not be conducive to developing. too far out to know that yet though

P.H. Dexippus said:

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Lord have mercy!

Very early for an MDR storm, these usually happen later in the season. Guess we'll see if it survives the Caribbean graveyard.

Martin Q. Blank said:

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Has a storm ever petered out once it reaches the gulf? I thought every time it intensifies once it passes Cuba.

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GoM waters are super hot, so usually not, but sometimes there are high upper-level shear winds that inhibit rapid intensification. The Caribbean sea usually shears the storms apart, or has in the past few years, but the overall pattern is changing to a more favorable storm-development scenario, so that may not be the case this year.

I'd like to get this write up near the front page to show that this is truly an abnormally high NOAA prediction for this year. I know the news reports "above average" every year, but I think this year will be a bad one. As seen below, their forecasting is typically accurate if not underpredict the number of named storms.

_____________________________________________________

NOAA definitions of above-normal, near-normal, and below-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons

The 1950-2000 mean value of the ACE index is 93.7, and the median value is 86.0

Above-normal season: An ACE index value well above 103 (103 corresponds to 120% of the median ACE value or 110% of the mean), or an ACE value slightly above 103 combined with at least two of the following three parameters being above the long-term average: number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

Near-normal season: An ACE index value in the range 66-103 (corresponding to 76%-120% of the median or 70%-110% of the mean), or an ACE index value slightly above 103 but with less than two of the following three parameters being above the long-term average: numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

Below-normal season: An ACE index value below 66, corresponding to below 76% of the median or 70% of the mean.

NOAA Prediction 2024 - "above normal"
Named Storms 17-25
Hurricanes 8-13
Major hurricanes 4-7

NOAA Prediction 2023 - "near normal"
Named Storms 12-17, actual 20
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 7
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 3
Total damage $4.19 billion, 18 total fatalities, ACE=148

NOAA Prediction 2022 - "above normal"
Named Storms 14-21, actual 14
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 8
Major hurricanes 3-6, actual 2
Total damage $118.286 billion, 304 total fatalities, ACE=95

NOAA Prediction 2021 - "above normal"
Named Storms 13-20, actual 21
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 7
Major hurricanes 3-5, actual 4
Total damage $80.727 billion, 194 total fatalities, ACE=146

NOAA Prediction 2020 - "above normal"
Named Storms 13-19, actual 30
Hurricanes 6-10, actual 14
Major hurricanes 3-6, actual 7
Total damage $55.394 billion, 417 total fatalities, ACE=179.8

NOAA Prediction 2019 - "near normal"
Named Storms 9-15, actual 18
Hurricanes 4-8, actual 6
Major hurricanes 2-4, actual 3
Total damage $11.6 billion, 121 total fatalities, ACE=130

NOAA Prediction 2018 - "near normal"
Named Storms 10-16, actual 15
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 8
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 2
Total damage $50.526 billion, 172 total fatalities, ACE=129

NOAA Prediction 2017 - "above normal"
Named Storms 11-17, actual 17
Hurricanes 5-9, actual 10
Major hurricanes 2-4, actual 6
Total damage $294.803 billion, 3369 total fatalities, ACE=224

NOAA Prediction 2016 - "near normal"
Named Storms 10-16, actual 15
Hurricanes 4-8, actual 7
Major hurricanes 1-4, actual 4
Total damage $17.485 billion, 736 total fatalities, ACE=126

texsn95 said:

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Martin Q. Blank said:

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Has a storm ever petered out once it reaches the gulf? I thought every time it intensifies once it passes Cuba.

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GoM waters are super hot, so usually not, but sometimes there are high upper-level shear winds that inhibit rapid intensification. The Caribbean sea usually shears the storms apart, or has in the past few years, but the overall pattern is changing to a more favorable storm-development scenario, so that may not be the case this year.

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Can you elaborate upon this? Does this mean for this particular storm? Or overall?

I thought I read somewhere that those predictions were all their amended predictions as the season went on, and not what their initial predictions were, so their finals sometimes appear to be more accurate than their initial predictions. I thought that was a weird way of doing things. May very well be incorrect, but I definitely recall seeing someone discussing that somewhere.

Supposedly we're transitioning from an El Nino to a La Nina pattern, so here's a quick blurb about it.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-nino-and-la-nina-hurricane-season

Sea Speed said:

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I thought I read somewhere that those predictions were all their amended predictions as the season went on, and not what their initial predictions were, so their finals sometimes appear to be more accurate than their initial predictions. I thought that was a weird way of doing things. May very well be incorrect, but I definitely recall seeing someone discussing that somewhere.

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The predictions above were all preseason forecasts.

Thanks.

Saharan Dust needs to do its job...

Dust won't slow 95L down.

No reason why #95L will not become #Beryl by Sat. It’s in an environment that is rich in moisture, low wind shear and water temps in the low 80’s. The Saharan dust is far enough north to not be a major factor. Westbound she goes in a favorable environment.. pic.twitter.com/EmZ5etEVp1

— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) June 27, 2024

Here is some important context we wanted to share as we are looking at models the next several days. #95L #Beryl https://t.co/Zj1KCEQuz2 pic.twitter.com/xjkiEH9VA9

— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) June 27, 2024

Should be interesting this time next week.

GoM facilities will start shutting in and evacuating non-essential personnel probably middle next week, if that track holds.

Yea I am about 60NM off the coast of corpus at the moment and I am hoping once we wrap up these jobs on the 2nd or so we are heading back in to the dock.

GFS showing two storms around the same strength tracking close to the same path as one another…two days apart from each other.

My god

Soundtrack

Eyewall supposed to have an update this morning. A lot of wind shear once it enters the carribean.

I know it's WAY early, but GFS takes the first storm into Texas early next week around Corpus.

*forecast obviously going to change

Just from quick reading yesterday, a weaker storm will track further south, stronger will head little more north. Will see how much the shear affects it.