People were discussing its forecast track so that's why I posted the archive. I am well aware of its timeline (I live between Houston and Galveston) versus today's calendar date.94chem said:Ag83 said:
Ike forecast graphics archive:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
Ike was over 2 weeks earlier. Huge difference.
2022 Hurricane season
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Last: 1 yr ago by evestor1
The primary difference between the euro and GFS is whether the storm trends more to Yucatn peninsula or Cuba.
The American basically goes all the way to South America and turns at the last minute. The euro and basically every other model cuts across Cuba.
The American basically goes all the way to South America and turns at the last minute. The euro and basically every other model cuts across Cuba.
12z GFS back to Florida.
Latest run of the European model shows it hitting around Key West then speeding off to the NE.
This was my 4 year old's prediction as well:
Space weather doesn't call things this far in advance but they did this evening to settle the herd in Texas.
gougler08 said:The L means Louisiana!Cromagnum said:
GFS has it destroying New Orleans currently. That's a a wide wind field.
No H so Houston & Houma are safe sha.
TIL why they call them "Invest."
I'm done learning for today. Going back to bed.
I'm done learning for today. Going back to bed.
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Hopefully Key West is still there for our anniversary trip in three weeks.
It is crazy when you look back at those old forecasts because the cone of uncertainty was so much bigger back then.
14 years of advancement in science and technology
Just in time for the next Artemis I launch attempt
Tropical Depression 10 stole the Hermine name out from underneath TD 9. Ian next on the list
Ian's on the board
What is the "m" status at 8PM Tuesday?
Major hurricane (Category 3 or higher)
And Lanza was saying the NHC is hinting they may be under forecasting the strength.
So a high 3 or even a 4 may not be out of the question.
So a high 3 or even a 4 may not be out of the question.
Not much to stop rapid intensification, and the NHC tends to under estimate on purpose as not to cause panic. When it warrants addressing the NHC will do so.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022092412&fh=78
Euro model currently has landfall around Tampa. Cat 3 storm surge in Tampa Bay would be brutal.
GFS model has landfall around AL/FL border.
Edit - you have to hit "play" to see the video.
Euro model currently has landfall around Tampa. Cat 3 storm surge in Tampa Bay would be brutal.
GFS model has landfall around AL/FL border.
Edit - you have to hit "play" to see the video.
Thwt NE quadrant dragging its nuts on hundreds of miles of Florida coastline
Left: Overnight super ensemble. Right: Yesterday’s runs. West trend ended overnight and there’s was an eastward correction. That’s why we urge you to resist the windshield wiper effect/emotional rollercoaster of run to run shifts. Tampa Bay Area still very much in play @WFLA 1/ pic.twitter.com/wHri4DAQfa
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) September 25, 2022
Possibly looking at a 24hr stall just off the peninsula near Tampa.
wessimo
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Where are you seeing that?
Being hinted at in the NHC wording and the weather Channel talking about it now. Nothing set in stone just a possibility.
Tropical Storm #Ian's max winds have increased from 45 mph to 60 mph and its pressure has fallen from 1003 mb to 991 mb in the past three hours. Its much anticipated intensification looks to have begun in earnest. #hurricane pic.twitter.com/UAYMX4P3wh
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 26, 2022
The media wants this to be a bad storm so much.
#Ian gets even higher #CategorySlow rating near FL Gulf coast, forecast to move only about 4 mph, basically stalling Wed and Thu. More motivation to evacuate as instructed and have first aid kit. During long-duration storm, emergency help often can’t come. High end flood risk. pic.twitter.com/5N76fKxCTZ
— Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb) September 26, 2022
This could be a near Harvey event with it stalling out.
Also similar to Ike generating Cat 3/4 storm surge even though it may only be a Cat 1/2 at landfall.
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