flooding?AgLiving06 said:
Wait. So this isn't a repeat of the 2011 drought? Whatever will the news talks about now?
2022 Hurricane season
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Last: 1 yr ago by evestor1
AgLiving06 said:
Wait. So this isn't a repeat of the 2011 drought? Whatever will the news talks about now?
Both the European and American are showing something material headed for the Florida panhandle.
Most recent American model shifted from something hitting the Texas/Louisiana border to Florida.
Most recent American model shifted from something hitting the Texas/Louisiana border to Florida.
AgLiving06 said:
Both the European and American are showing something material headed for the Florida panhandle.
Most recent American model shifted from something hitting the Texas/Louisiana border to Florida.
Yea a week front next week is looking like it will shift whatever it will be East
Mr. AGSPRT04 said:AgLiving06 said:
Wait. So this isn't a repeat of the 2011 drought? Whatever will the news talks about now?
Seabreeze said:AgLiving06 said:
Both the European and American are showing something material headed for the Florida panhandle.
Most recent American model shifted from something hitting the Texas/Louisiana border to Florida.
Yea a week front next week is looking like it will shift whatever it will be East
I remember when they said that about Ike, and the front came in after Ike wiped out Galveston.
AgLiving06 said:
Both the European and American are showing something material headed for the Florida panhandle.
Most recent American model shifted from something hitting the Texas/Louisiana border to Florida.
The models that space city posted today has the tracks going all over the place, but small chance of it heading our way at this point.
Cromagnum said:Seabreeze said:AgLiving06 said:
Both the European and American are showing something material headed for the Florida panhandle.
Most recent American model shifted from something hitting the Texas/Louisiana border to Florida.
Yea a week front next week is looking like it will shift whatever it will be East
I remember when they said that about Ike, and the front came in after Ike wiped out Galveston.
My parents always tell me that Ike was pointed at Houston from the start and never deviated.
Next name up, Hermine. Another "H" name, we're doomed
AgLiving06 said:Cromagnum said:Seabreeze said:AgLiving06 said:
Both the European and American are showing something material headed for the Florida panhandle.
Most recent American model shifted from something hitting the Texas/Louisiana border to Florida.
Yea a week front next week is looking like it will shift whatever it will be East
I remember when they said that about Ike, and the front came in after Ike wiped out Galveston.
My parents always tell me that Ike was pointed at Houston from the start and never deviated.
I remember it being aimed to the south and roll up I-37, then it switched a couple days before landfall to go straight at Houston.
Models pretty consistent on somewhere in Florida. This thing could be bad news. Low shear and lots of warm water.
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Glad I went to Orange Beach this past spring break. Might not be there next spring.
GFS keeps pushing this thing west. Last several runs have it going to Louisiana. Luckily other models still show Florida and GFS has been terrible with forecasting this year.
GFS has it destroying New Orleans currently. That's a a wide wind field.
Just going to attempt to speak this into existence…
1) keep running west into Mexico landfall
2) sharp turn north
3) dump all moisture into Texas where folks missed on the august rain fall
4) no major flooding. Just a 5 day soaker
Please please please bring some rain to Texas. I know a lot of you guys got a ton in Aug, but I'm over 20in behind for the year. It's awful.
1) keep running west into Mexico landfall
2) sharp turn north
3) dump all moisture into Texas where folks missed on the august rain fall
4) no major flooding. Just a 5 day soaker
Please please please bring some rain to Texas. I know a lot of you guys got a ton in Aug, but I'm over 20in behind for the year. It's awful.
It's all just darts at the wall until there's a center of circulation.
lol - i cant remember a 5 day soaker in september or october that wasnt a major problem.TikkaShooter said:
4) no major flooding. Just a 5 day soaker
You aren't wrong.
But one can wish.
But one can wish.
Ag83 said:
Ike forecast graphics archive:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
Ike was over 2 weeks earlier. Huge difference.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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The L means Louisiana!Cromagnum said:
GFS has it destroying New Orleans currently. That's a a wide wind field.
Has GFS ever been right?
The euro model seems to be more accurate.
The euro model seems to be more accurate.
I think it has been correct with some storms, but not in recent years. The Space City guys seem to distrust it, especially this year.Scruffy said:
Has GFS ever been right?
The euro model seems to be more accurate.
Ag12thman said:I think it has been correct with some storms, but not in recent years. The Space City guys seem to distrust it, especially this year.Scruffy said:
Has GFS ever been right?
The euro model seems to be more accurate.
Most people I follow are having less and less confidence in the GFS over the years. The Euro has been the most reliable
Weatherman at my work (big oil) has only been utilizing the Euro in his morning updates.
Ag12thman said:I think it has been correct with some storms, but not in recent years. The Space City guys seem to distrust it, especially this year.Scruffy said:
Has GFS ever been right?
The euro model seems to be more accurate.
I seem to recall when we had Hurricane Ida and Laura hit Louisiana, that the Euro model was doing its normal west-bias thing and trying to bring them to us while the GFS had them going closer to where they actually hit.
Although larger rainfall events are possible, a major hurricane has never hit the Texas coast after September 23rd. I know there's always a first, but seriously, late September and October are Florida's turn.AgLiving06 said:
Weatherman at my work (big oil) has only been utilizing the Euro in his morning updates.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
The Space City guys have essentially been saying this since the onset of 98L as well.94chem said:Although larger rainfall events are possible, a major hurricane has never hit the Texas coast after September 23rd. I know there's always a first, but seriously, late September and October are Florida's turn.AgLiving06 said:
Weatherman at my work (big oil) has only been utilizing the Euro in his morning updates.
GFS was right on the money for Hurricane Laura. Euro had it hitting Galveston/Houston.Scruffy said:
Has GFS ever been right?
The euro model seems to be more accurate.
https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2020/08/31/a-few-laura-lessons/
You can start the thread around here and watch us ***** about why the NHS wasn't shifting their cone west toward Houston.
https://texags.com/forums/38/topics/3125797/16
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