Went to Super Mercado on Veterans. Toilet paper everywhere, lots of produce and the meat and fish counters were fantastic.

We about to go in statewide lockdown?

Louisiana just did. I imagine we would follow

David_Puddy said:

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We about to go in statewide lockdown?

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Will it really change much for Houston? Might as well just do our 2 weeks now and then try to have some normalcy start in April

gougler08 said:

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David_Puddy said:

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We about to go in statewide lockdown?

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Will it really change much for Houston? Might as well just do our 2 weeks now and then try to have some normalcy start in April

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Exactly. Been trying to talk certain "heavy-FB-user" family members and friends off the ledge. The terms "shutdown/lockdown/shelter in place/curfew" seem to be what are freaking people out. We've basically been doing this for 10 days now.

gougler08 said:

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David_Puddy said:

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We about to go in statewide lockdown?

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Will it really change much for Houston? Might as well just do our 2 weeks now and then try to have some normalcy start in April

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Probably not, we've been in "lockdown" here in ca for a few days now but folks are still going to the beach, going out for exercise. It's mainly just that everything indoors is shutdown

Jock 07 said:

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gougler08 said:

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David_Puddy said:

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We about to go in statewide lockdown?

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Will it really change much for Houston? Might as well just do our 2 weeks now and then try to have some normalcy start in April

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Probably not, we've been in "lockdown" here in ca for a few days now but folks are still going to the beach, going out for exercise. It's mainly just that everything indoors is shutdown

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Yeah, it's also a pretty long list of essential businesses that stay open. Basically just naming what we've already been doing for a week +. I'm just hopeful that when it's announced officially we have an end date so that people can focus on getting back to real life where we can

It would be silly to give an end date

David_Puddy said:

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Abbott leaving it up to local officials in all counties to implement their own rules. Sure as hell wouldn't be surprised to see Turner put it in

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He called a press conference for that?

Turner has been adamant he's not doing it right now. Could down the road but he really doesn't want to.

gougler08 said:

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David_Puddy said:

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Abbott leaving it up to local officials in all counties to implement their own rules. Sure as hell wouldn't be surprised to see Turner put it in

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He called a press conference for that?

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Among other things....beds,testing, etc

They'll give some "hopeful" dates but it's useless to speculate when this thing will sort itself out. You just subject yourself to the ire of voters when you miss the date.

Did you not watch it? There was more discussed. Does every press conference have to come with major restrictions?

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3090341/551

I paraphrased the whole thing on this thread. Took me three posts.

Mostly it was to release executive orders regarding increasing hospital beds, remind you that he's not locking down the whole state, announce some peeps that he is tasking with procurement of supplies, etc.

swimmerbabe11 said:

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https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3090341/551

I paraphrased the whole thing on this thread. Took me three posts.

Mostly it was to release executive orders regarding increasing hospital beds, remind you that he's not locking down the whole state, announce some peeps that he is tasking with procurement of supplies, etc.

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Thanks!

Diggity said:

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They'll give some "hopeful" dates but it's useless to speculate when this thing will sort itself out. You just subject yourself to the ire of voters when you miss the date.

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But likewise, they are going to be subject to the ire of the voter if a large amount of people lose their jobs, which is almost certainly going to happen.

But that's why they are elected. To make the tough decisions, and if they refuse to, no matter how good they are, they should not be elected again.

Abbott has been talked about as a future Presidential candidate, but he could blow it right here.

Cromagnum said:

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David_Puddy said:

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Abbott leaving it up to local officials in all counties to implement their own rules. Sure as hell wouldn't be surprised to see Turner put it in

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Meanwhile, Turner and Hidalgo be all like.

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I think they were certainly counting on Abbott shutting things down and bailing them out. That backfired pretty badly.

Nobody has a reasonable idea about when this crap will settle. It's not about making tough decisions, it's about being realistic.

Turner said he won't shut down city thru end of Monday.

Dallas shut it down

The data the Dallas County judge cites was from this group. Not a government agency. Who are these guys?

https://covidactnow.org/about

AgLiving06 said:

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Their data is crazy.

They are claiming the following with 3 months of social distancing

Florida: 320,000
California: 597,000
Texas: 430,000
NY: 292,000

So in just these 4 states they are saying: 1,639,000 people would die with social distancing.

Add in the rest of the states and it's going to be in the 2-3 million range.

That seems like a wildly outdated stats.

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I dug further b/c this didn't make sense and I now really don't think it makes sense.

I think they are doing the following using Texas as an example:

Total Population: 29.5 million
Predicted Deaths: 430,000
Death rate: ~1.5%

Since we can assume a significant amount of people are asymptomatic, this math doesn't work. Or they are assuming a much higher death rate.

AgLiving06 said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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Their data is crazy.

They are claiming the following with 3 months of social distancing

Florida: 320,000
California: 597,000
Texas: 430,000
NY: 292,000

So in just these 4 states they are saying: 1,639,000 people would die with social distancing.

Add in the rest of the states and it's going to be in the 2-3 million range.

That seems like a wildly outdated stats.

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I dug further b/c this didn't make sense and I now really don't think it makes sense.

I think they are doing the following using Texas as an example:

Total Population: 29.5 million
Predicted Deaths: 430,000
Death rate: ~1.5%

Since we can assume a significant amount of people are asymptomatic, this math doesn't work. Or they are assuming a much higher death rate.

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I've seen multiple models that increase the assumed death rate significantly when hospitals get overwhelmed. I dont know if the 1.5% is that or if it's their base case.

AgLiving06 said:

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Their data is crazy.

They are claiming the following with 3 months of social distancing

Florida: 320,000
California: 597,000
Texas: 430,000
NY: 292,000

So in just these 4 states they are saying: 1,639,000 people would die with social distancing.

Add in the rest of the states and it's going to be in the 2-3 million range.

That seems like a wildly outdated stats.

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It is also within like three weeks.

Asinine.

We're what 10K or so 3 months into this thing across the globe. And Texas will have almost 600K in mid April.

Ok.

dragmagpuff said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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Their data is crazy.

They are claiming the following with 3 months of social distancing

Florida: 320,000
California: 597,000
Texas: 430,000
NY: 292,000

So in just these 4 states they are saying: 1,639,000 people would die with social distancing.

Add in the rest of the states and it's going to be in the 2-3 million range.

That seems like a wildly outdated stats.

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I dug further b/c this didn't make sense and I now really don't think it makes sense.

I think they are doing the following using Texas as an example:

Total Population: 29.5 million
Predicted Deaths: 430,000
Death rate: ~1.5%

Since we can assume a significant amount of people are asymptomatic, this math doesn't work. Or they are assuming a much higher death rate.

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I've seen multiple models that increase the assumed death rate significantly when hospitals get overwhelmed. I dont know if the 1.5% is that or if it's their base case.

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That's fair.

But if I look at Italy, which has a comparable population size to Texas (though worse in most everything else).

They are at ~5,500 deaths.

If we assume they should see the same death numbers as this model predicts for Texas, they've only lost 1.2% of the total amount they are expected to lose.

Based on the amount of deaths that they had today (651 per world meter), at that rate (all things unchanged which is unreasonable). they either need a significant ramp up or it's going to take ~2 more years of this for them to get to 430,000.

That seems crazy.

And Texas with a much higher rate than NY while NY is the epicenter right now, not to mention with a much higher population density of people living on top of each other.

Harris County expected to shelter-in-place 'very soon': Dallas County Judge says
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/03/23/harris-county-expected-to-shelter-in-place-very-soon-dallas-county-judge-says/

Press conference tomorrow morning at 9:30

I think the numbers are not deaths but hospitalizations. That said they still seem insane. Now I miss Ed Emmett.