COVID VACCINE

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lost my dog
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In reply to TommyBrady • 10:54p, 1/24/21
TommyBrady said:
We want this ****show to end thats why people care so much now. The sooner we get this shot in arms the sooner we can end this bs.
You're missing my point. If you thought Covid was not that big a deal previously, why do you think you need the shot now?

For those people who were worried about Covid previously, I understand them wanting the shot.

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TommyBrady
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In reply to lost my dog • 11:04p, 1/24/21
AG
I don't understand what part of we want this to end isn't answering your question. It's clear the vaccine is the only way people will stop freaking out and let us live again. I'm not sure what isn't clear
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lost my dog
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In reply to TommyBrady • 11:13p, 1/24/21
TommyBrady said:
I don't understand what part of we want this to end isn't answering your question. It's clear the vaccine is the only way people will stop freaking out and let us live again. I'm not sure what isn't clear
Ah, so you want the vaccine not because you think Covid is dangerous, but because you think government authorities will stop restrictions once enough people get the vaccine.

Lol, it's just like eating your broccoli so your mom lets you have your ice cream dessert. I understand now.

I hope we can both get our shots soon.
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Goose83
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4:06a, 1/25/21
AG
I see we get another whopping 1200 shots this week:

https://www.kbtx.com/2021/01/25/brazos-valley-covid-19-vaccination-update-january-24/

Considering that the St. Joes list had over 20,000 names at last call, this is going to take awhile.
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cavscout96
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In reply to lost my dog • 8:18a, 1/25/21
AG
lost my dog said:
Let me first say I think the vaccine roll out has been a crap show. I think there has been piss-poor planning at multiple levels of government. I also think the pharma companies may have over-promised how many doses they could deliver, and that the public doesn't realize how complicated it is to make the RNA-based vaccines.

But the most amusing thing on Texags is to see people who for 12 months have been saying the Covid is no big deal, not worse than the flu, etc., now getting so upset that vaccines aren't available on demand. I mean, if Covid wasn't that big a deal 6 months ago, and we didn't need to wear masks, why are you upset you can't get vaccinated now?

That being said, I will wait in line and get vaccinated the first chance I get. The sooner the better.
I've never said the virus wasn't real or a big deal.... to some populations, I've consistently contended that government overreach abounds with regard to the response, and ineptitude rules in the vax roll-out.

so, in essence, gov't was too busy focusing on what it has no business in, and failed to focus on what it actually has a role in. Accordingly, we are in an enormous CF largely of our own making. I say "our" making because "we" elected these fools.

ETA - I'm not in a hurry to get MY shot, but I do have a 1B in my family and I'd like for them to get theirs in a reasonable timeframe. My low risk folks should, and will, wait our turn so that folks who really need it don't have to go without.
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Born&Raised
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In reply to Goose83 • 8:18a, 1/25/21
Goose61 said:
I see we get another whopping 1200 shots this week:

https://www.kbtx.com/2021/01/25/brazos-valley-covid-19-vaccination-update-january-24/

Considering that the St. Joes list had over 20,000 names at last call, this is going to take awhile.


It is actually 2000

1200 M
975 P

I posted it on their Facebook page but they deleted the comment and only included half of the amount.

Let's all be honest with each other - the media is actively! Actively coordinating with local people to excuse - hide - and manipulate the truth. Why do you think they are at the opening of every little restaurant and post memes all day - but fail to do ANY relevant journalism. Time to admit it folks - the media has been paid off and they are now owned by the gov.

That Brazos County has failed its people - that there was no plan in place - that it has done nothing to date that shows they have any clue what to do and that - people will suffer and some die because only those who got the 'magic' email from St. joes - namely elected people - and well off folk.

But

McDonald's and Netflix*
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cavscout96
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In reply to Born&Raised • 8:24a, 1/25/21
AG
B&R,

Don't you know?

Quote:
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others"
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FlyRod
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9:39a, 1/25/21
Quote:
Considering that the St. Joes list had over 20,000 names at last call, this is going to take awhile.

I signed up with St. Joe's. Where do you see the numbers of people on the list? Just curious.
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Goose83
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In reply to FlyRod • 9:50a, 1/25/21
AG
FlyRod said:
Quote:
Considering that the St. Joes list had over 20,000 names at last call, this is going to take awhile.

I signed up with St. Joe's. Where do you see the numbers of people on the list? Just curious.
It was in an article over at the KBTX website a few days ago (originally it was at 12,000, but last time I saw it, it was updated to 20,000).
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cavscout96
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10:49a, 1/25/21
AG
of note. The waiting list numbers are artificially high (probably way high). Many, MANY, of the folks on them are signed up on several, maybe dozens, of lists in the county and outside the county.

I have family in Austin signed up in Bastrop for instance. Not condoning or suggesting. Austin, it sounds like, has been as big of a CF at BC.

This is an issue on multiple fronts

  • it breeds panic and defeatism
  • it might cause significant errors in allocation
  • allocation errors may result in delays to areas with greater need or less access (think rural)
  • failure to cancel from multiple lists may lead providers to a) shift to targets of opportunity or b) lose doses to spoilage



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Born&Raised
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11:05a, 1/25/21
It would seem based on multiple people I have spoken with - emails are being sent out today confirming appointments.

Several people I know have gotten an email confirming appt.

There is no overlapping demo - except age and comorbids. Ven diagram.
If your over a certain age/comorbids - then your getting an email.

Don't want to be *****ing while my friends gets vaccines - those I'm *****ing on behalf of.

Full disclosure*

*This appears!!' APPEARS to be the first round of what is general population HUB access. But who knows!
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nought
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In reply to Born&Raised • 11:25a, 1/25/21
AG
Born&Raised said:

It is actually 2000

1200 M
975 P
...


Actually according to the DSHS allocation for this week

https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week7.pdf

it is only 1200, all Moderna. No Pfizer this week. Last week was 1200 + 975.

Why so little this week? Best guess is because we're moving so little of the vaccine. So far we have only given 8,049 injections (7,213 first dose plus additional 836 second dose) out of 16,125 doses allocated to us. The state confirmed that from the date they publish the allocation, those doses are delivered to the county within the week.

We've given out less than half the doses we have sitting around, yet the media and county officials keep claiming the problem is lack of supply.

There are only 21,605 people 65+ in this county. Setting aside the shots needed for healthcare providers, I'm guessing at least half of those 65+ could have had their shots by now had the county been on top of things.
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Bucketrunner
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11:30a, 1/25/21
1B with one of us having other health issues. No email. I am so happy that the elites are protected while screwing over the rest of us.
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Nosmo
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2:04p, 1/25/21
AG
[url=https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/Summary?rigin=card_share_link&:embed=y&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y]Covid 19 Vaccinations in Texas[/url]

PLEASE PEOPLE, use the state website.

The weekly allocation sheet is for 1st time shots only. It's stated on the top of the page.

There is a ton of info on comparing counties on the state site and it breaks down 1st and 2nd doses.

Last week Brazos county got 6,075 total doses.

2,175 for 1st shots

3,900 for 2nd shots

2nd shots are coming due and Pfizer and Moderna's supply nationwide is pretty much steady at 1.2 million doses a day. Pfizer and Moderna say they will supply a total of 400 million by end of July. Enough for 200 million people. So until another supplier comes on line, the supply should slowly increase, but not very fast.

And just FYI, it takes about 2weeks for announced allocation to hit the arms on:

National level.
Texas state level
County level (including Brazos)

Here's another good resource for the entire country. And don't get freaked out as the 2 week delay on that format makes it look really bad.

WSJ Vaccine tracker

I have no dog in this hunt except my peace of mind.

I'm not going to argue theory.

After spending all the time on trying to figure out what's going on I have a few conclusions.

1) Initial allocations in Texas were based on more than just 1A people.

2) Areas with high death rates got more vaccines the first weeks (see border and places like Tyler)

3) Abbott opened up a can of worms of false expectations when he announced 1B. Also adding a bunch of people to 1B has essentially delayed the old people. Politics galore.

4) Two weeks between allocation and injection is not that big of a deal. Suppliers are making all they can and it is not enough. The entire country is complaining loudly. If it was one week delay, what would it matter, since the process is going to take many months. What's another week?

5) I don't think (and this is just my opinion) that Brazos county has a injection issue. I don't think they got less because injections were too slow. Too many counties with similar demographics looks the same as Brazos.

6) I'm not sure what Brazos Center will do, unless people think it's another sign up site, and it will be more fair? We're not going to get more vaccine because we inject a weeks allocation in 3 days.

7) Communication has been bad, and local media is just awful. This is a "medical apocalypse" and their reporting is just worthless. Something tells me their politics are getting in the way of actual quality information.

8) Vaccine rationing sucks.

9) The Biden 100 day 100 million quote is nothing more than using projections from Modern and Pfizer. There's 202 million people in the everybody greater than 16 that have priority. 400 million doses (or 200 million people) are projected by July. About 200 million doses (100 million people) by first part of May or 100 days.

Yes, this should probably go on the rant thread, but I don't think some numbers on this thread aren't in line with actual quality data.

Everybody has a theory, and nobody is going to change their mind. If you think I'm off base, that's fine. I am not going to argue. If you want to know where I got my numbers, I'll be more than happy to reply.

Again, my agenda is my peace of mind.


PS: Don't know what's wrong with the link display. But they seem to work.







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nought
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In reply to Nosmo • 2:24p, 1/25/21
AG
Nosmo said:

The weekly allocation sheet is for 1st time shots only. It's stated on the top of the page.

There is a ton of info on comparing counties on the state site and it breaks down 1st and 2nd doses.

Last week Brazos county got 6,075 total doses.

2,175 for 1st shots

3,900 for 2nd shots


According to the dashboard, Brazos County has been allocated 12,450 (975 + 3900 + 700 + 1500 + 2000 + 2175 + 1200) first doses. Let's not count the 1200 that are arriving this week, so it is 11,250.

Also according to the dashboard, we have put 7,355 of those 11,250 doses in the arms of 1A and 1B vaccine candidates.

That's by no means a high enough percentage.
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CN
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2:32p, 1/25/21
Sorry if this has already been discussed but why hasn't S&W administering any vaccines recently? A doctor friend of mine told me he heard someone had theirs taken away but didn't know who. S&W is who he suspects because they haven't been administering any lately.
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Nosmo
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In reply to nought • 4:47p, 1/25/21
AG
nought said:
Nosmo said:

The weekly allocation sheet is for 1st time shots only. It's stated on the top of the page.

There is a ton of info on comparing counties on the state site and it breaks down 1st and 2nd doses.

Last week Brazos county got 6,075 total doses.

2,175 for 1st shots

3,900 for 2nd shots


According to the dashboard, Brazos County has been allocated 12,450 (975 + 3900 + 700 + 1500 + 2000 + 2175 + 1200) first doses. Let's not count the 1200 that are arriving this week, so it is 11,250.

Also according to the dashboard, we have put 7,355 of those 11,250 doses in the arms of 1A and 1B vaccine candidates.

That's by no means a high enough percentage.
First of all, the shot the "vaccination" tab wording is confusing. It's a people thing and not a shot thing.

This tab looks at people to date that have one or two doses and people that have 2 doses. To get the "to date" number, you have to add the two. Note that the "doses administered" tab is total shots.

Let's say we are rationing shoes. And we are getting only a left shoe first, and have to wait a month for a right shoe.

Initially everybody is shoeless, and gets a left shoe as only left shoes are distributed. At this point every left shoe distributed is equal to total people that have at least one shoe to date.

A month later, we start distributing right shoes along with left shoes. Some people are coming in shoeless and some people are wearing a left shoe. This metric is only concerned with how many people have at least one shoe at the end of the day.

We also list how many people have a pair of shoes.

To get the total shoes you list the number of people that have at least one, and add the number of people with 2 shoes.

When everybody gets 2 shoes, the number of people will be 1/2 the amount of shoes.

Again the "administered" tab show actual shots performed. And as long as it's a two dose vaccine, people vaccinated will not equal shots required to fully vaccinate.

In this case, the total shots is 7,355 + 910 = 8,265. Not a big difference but it will get bigger quickly.

As far as 11,250, "allocated" is the number that takes about 2 weeks to consume ( my actual number is closer to 15 days). "Allocation" is not "shipped". as the state shows shipping all during the week. There is no tracking of when a county receives it either.

As I said earlier, nationwide (look at the WSJ link), Texas-wide, and county-wide this two week lag is typical. As a general rule, everybody is out of vaccine everywhere as far as I can gather and shots allocated are not stacking-up.

We are now forced to go into the 2nd shot mode so there is more coordination and first shot doses are going to suffer.

I don't see any evidence that using up your allotment quicker, means you get more doses. There was a problem initially, but that was initial roll out and media was screaming about the lag. The lag is still there.

Maybe you are right, but I don't see it. And I've looked for it.

Also, be aware that some counties have a lot more shots given than allocated. Not sure how that happened, but if you get a shot in another county, it's counted toward your home county.

Edit #1: Also note that "allocations" are listed on the "Sunday" update, and Texas rarely show much activity on Sunday as "shipped".




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nought
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In reply to Nosmo • 5:05p, 1/25/21
AG
Nosmo said:

In this case, the total shots is 7,355 + 910 = 8,265. Not a big difference but it will get bigger quickly.

As far as 11,250, "allocated" is the number that takes about 2 weeks to consume ( my actual number is closer to 15 days). "Allocation" is not "shipped". as the state shows shipping all during the week. There is no tracking of when a county receives it either.


I'm trying to compare apples to apples. The 7,355 first shots, and the 11,250 doses, are in the same metric. Those 11,250 doses are reserved for first shots. We're almost 4,000 shots short of the allocation (not even counting the latest week's allocation, and the state has said the doses are shipped within 1 week after the allocation is announced, and shipping is overnight).

The end goal of course is to get everyone to have (using your words), two shoes. Sadly, because we are so behind on getting the first shoe on people's feet, and they have to wait a significant amount of time before the second shoe can be fitted after the first shoe is there, this county is taking a very long time compared to others of similar size in terms of getting its vulnerable population vaccinated (shoed).

The faster we can get first doses into arms, the faster we'll be able to get second doses into arms. If Washington County can handle 500 vaccinations in a day, we should easily be able to hit 1000 or 1500 (or be like Amarillo and hit almost 3000 in a day). Let's use up those 4000 shots that are sitting around as quickly as possible.
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6:41p, 1/25/21
Nosmo
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In reply to nought • 6:56p, 1/25/21
AG
I log the vaccine usage daily, and only have weekly allocation. I started with Jan 4th data.

FSA = First shot allocation to date

FSDA = First shot administered

Abscissa (x-axis) = days

Ordinate (y-axis) = FSA and FSDA

Linear fit was pretty good. Polynomial was almost straight line anyway.

Y = mX + b

FSA = 265.7 * Xa + 6211

FSDA = 316 * Xs + 560.5

Set FSA to zero (0).

FSA = 265.7 * 0 + 6211

FSA = 6211 at day zero

Set FSDA = to FSA

FSDA = 316 * Xs + 560.5

6211 = 316 * Xs + 560.5

Xs = 17.9 days

So, the first shots are lagging the allocation by 17.9 days according to the data available. I don't know the amount of data input lag.

Also note that allocation was 266 doses per day and 316 shots per day administered. Granted that's smoothing the process down, but the shots administered doesn't appear stressed.
.
I think this is what you were asking.

I typically have only looked at combined first and second shots as wanted to start on a national level

Again, it's all relative. At state and national levels it's comparable.

And here's last 21 state shipping numbers:

389,175
41,550
-12,150
125,700
1,425
76,525
13,900
-5000
0
142,050
-25
1,000
5,850
1,850
731,025
0
100
110,700
0
239,700
64,650

I was in manufacturing. Our customers would dump us in a minute if we shipped product like that.

I hope this is what you were asking.

Edit#1: If I do a similar exercise to state allocations vs state shipped, I get a lag of about 7 days. The numbers make sense that about a week to get allocated shipped and a week to use it.
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Born&Raised
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In reply to [removed post] • 7:21p, 1/25/21
Slocum on a mobile said:
I've never downplayed the severity of this virus. I'm in group 1B, my wife is in 1A, and I have a 12 year old that will be getting one as soon as it's available at Texas children's' Hospital as she's a heart patient there.

Our "leaders" have failed. MISERABLY. The local news "media" is just as bad. Complete and utter failures. This whole thing has been a total $h!+ show, and it's not getting better fast.

If they knew the 25th date was slipping, I wonder when that was known?!! Why was that not communicated? Anyone? Anyone?!? Bueller? I've written my county commissioner and did not receive a response.


Your wife is STILL waiting for it?? 1A is still in line?
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In reply to Born&Raised • 7:31p, 1/25/21
dubi
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7:55a, 1/26/21
AG
Stewart will give a 10am Covid briefing "on the county's facebook page".

Brazos County Health District page.

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Lone Stranger
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9:17a, 1/26/21
Some of the national data appears to have Amarillo and Lubbock in the top 3 nationwide in terms of vaccinations done by percentage of the population. The reported number for Lubbock is 8.7% of their population has had at least one shot. For the county the number sits at 8.8%.

https://www.everythinglubbock.com/news/local-news/lubbock-metro-area-has-no-3-highest-vaccination-rate-nationally-website-says/

The TX Tech Health Science Centers in Amarillo, Lubbock and Abilene have been using pharmacy faculty and assistance from P3 and P4 students.to give vaccinations at events coordinated with the county health entities. Having worked with clients a lot over the years in that area they don't tend to not have as big of an issue compared to here of too many Chiefs and not enough Indians.
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GnomeTalmbout
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In reply to Lone Stranger • 9:29a, 1/26/21
Quote:
The TX Tech Health Science Centers in Amarillo, Lubbock and Abilene have been using pharmacy faculty and assistance from P3 and P4 students.to give vaccinations at events coordinated with the county health entities. Having worked with clients a lot over the years in that area they don't tend to not have as big of an issue compared to here of too many Chiefs and not enough Indians.
I don't foresee the highly paid Health Science Center faculty in BCS volunteering to give Covid shots.
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GnomeTalmbout
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In reply to Lone Stranger • 9:29a, 1/26/21
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GnomeTalmbout
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In reply to Lone Stranger • 9:30a, 1/26/21
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GnomeTalmbout
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In reply to Lone Stranger • 9:30a, 1/26/21
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dubi
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10:08a, 1/26/21
AG
Link to Brazos County press update.

https://theeagle.com/news/watch-now-vaccination-update-given-to-brazos-county-commissioners/article_32d45792-5fef-11eb-a1b7-7b610aef5e69.html#tracking-source=home-just-in
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Oogway
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10:51a, 1/26/21
Something I haven't seen as much in the discussion here has to do with variations in states and how they report vaccination data--it's been touched upon above, but this article below talks about it in further detail.

Here's the full article, and an excerpt:
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/01/20/texas-coronavirus-vaccine-data/




Quote:
As the state began the massive undertaking of distributing the coronavirus vaccine, its early rollout was beset by data problems that left state officials with immunization and dose information that was outdated, incomplete and sometimes misleading.

Health care providers feared those inaccurate numbers, collected by the state's immunization registry, ImmTrac2, and another system were being used by the state to decide who would get the weekly allotment of vaccine and by others to decide who would get blamed for moving too slowly as a desperate public clamored for shots.
Health officials say the registry data were not used to dole out vaccines in the early weeks of the rollout that's a misconception, they said but added that the data they're collecting with ImmTrac2 could soon become a central factor in how many vaccine doses Texas gets from the federal government going forward.

In the first six weeks of the vaccine rollout, the federal government allocated doses based largely on population, but will likely start using the vaccination rate how fast doses are going into arms as "at least a piece of their allocation process," said Lara Anton, a spokesperson for the Texas Department of State Health Services, which runs the registry.

It affirms what most of you have said, but with the addition that the way the data is entered can then further set a region behind. Not a good match.

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Goose83
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In reply to dubi • 10:58a, 1/26/21
AG
dubi said:
Link to Brazos County press update.

https://theeagle.com/news/watch-now-vaccination-update-given-to-brazos-county-commissioners/article_32d45792-5fef-11eb-a1b7-7b610aef5e69.html#tracking-source=home-just-in
Behind a paywall.

Summation?
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dubi
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In reply to Goose83 • 11:05a, 1/26/21
AG
Goose61 said:
dubi said:
Link to Brazos County press update.

https://theeagle.com/news/watch-now-vaccination-update-given-to-brazos-county-commissioners/article_32d45792-5fef-11eb-a1b7-7b610aef5e69.html#tracking-source=home-just-in
Behind a paywall.

Summation?
  • They will vaccinate 300 people as a test on Thursday at the Brazos Center.
  • They have > 500 volunteers, but did not distinguish between medical volunteers who could actually administer the vaccine and regular folks who would do admin work.
  • The big hurdle is actually receiving the vaccine vials to give; they are ready to work.
  • TEEX is going to help get them better organized for the signups. The current St Joe web page is not adequate.
  • Jim Stewart said he's "a bit pessimistic about how quickly we're going to get additional vaccinations."
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MiMi
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In reply to dubi • 11:11a, 1/26/21
S
I believe he also said that there are currently 30,000 individuals on the St. Joe's waitlist. At the end, there were some comments by Peters defending the fact that Stewart lives in New Mexico.
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trouble
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11:14a, 1/26/21
AG
Instead of being pessimistic, maybe he should be disappointed that there was no plan on place before we received any doses. That's The most unbelievable part. WTAF have they been doing at the health department?
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localag242
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11:54a, 1/26/21
It's stupefying Washington County gets 2,000 to our paltry sum. Come election season it will be time to show the door to the incompetent lot that had no plan in place for months to prepare for. These vaccines just didn't spring up on us where now piss poor excuses just won't wash.
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