COVID VACCINE

143,283 Views | 1109 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Nosmo
techno-ag
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That's great. Can't wait for it to be as convenient as the flu shot.
Buy a man eat fish, he day, teach fish man, to a lifetime.

- Joe Biden
rsincs
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I had the same good experience
Nosmo
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https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/Summary?%3Aorigin=card_share_link&%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y


Data on the state vaccine dashboard has some significant changes for Brazos county.

First of all, it's an 11 am update, which is normally late afternoon, 2:30 to 4:00.

Next, it shows the county should have 12K doses available (to date) and 14K doses available (to date) next week (assuming the 1 wk lag). Yesterday they reported only 7K doses available.

Finally, it's showing the county vaccinated 964 people yesterday (7 day average 333 per day).

I'm guessing this is partly due to a catch-up in data processing and partly due to actually giving more shots.

4200 shots logged to date.

Since the feds are now basing allocation to states based on there ability to use the vaccinate, the states are now in competition to ask for more vaccine. If the counties or distribution centers can't prove they need it, they don't get it. Providers need to update the database. The onus is now on the counties / providers to "use it or loose it".

At least that's what I HOPE is happening.

I am trying to stay positive.

One more observation on the data. State is now showing 10K doses allocated to Brazos county by Week #2. Originally they were showing about 5K.

trouble
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A lot of that was shots given not just catching up. The St Joe's clinic is scheduling blocks of 10 people every 15 minutes.
Goose83
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Still waiting to hear back (guess I must be pretty far down the list).
Nosmo
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Goose61 said:

Still waiting to hear back (guess I must be pretty far down the list).
Yep, 1B now has potentially 87K people that might want the vaccine.

I don't know how accurate the estimate is, or what percent will get the shot.

But, if 80% get the shot that's 87K * 0.8 * 2 = 139K shots.

That's 10 times what the county shows as shots allocated to date.

I'm swimming in that pool too, but it could be a while.

PS: I just made up 80%. I have no idea other than it won't be 100%.
AggiePhil
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backinbcs said:

Went to Mature Well this morning for dose one.
What is "Mature Well?"
75AG
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Got the email from S&W, but wondering if anyone's been scheduled?
MiMi
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S
MatureWell Lifestyle Center
trouble
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My understanding is that Joe's will not be contacting the next group of people until they have their next shipment in hand.
AggiePhil
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Interesting. Never heard of that place. Odd name too.
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cavscout96
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Most of the docs I've talked to assume ~50-60%
theNetSmith
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There are ~87k 1B's in the Brazos Valley? That's a much bigger number than I would have guessed.
EMY92
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theNetSmith said:

There are ~87k 1B's in the Brazos Valley? That's a much bigger number than I would have guessed.
Are the remaining residents all elementary & middle school kids?

That's a lot of type 2 diabetics, obese people, and people with other significant medial issues.

I've had type 1 diabetes for 36 years, battled cancer several years ago and I'm not classified as 1B.
trouble
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87k out of 230k seems a bit high unless that number includes other counties.
theNetSmith
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According to the Brazos Valley Council of Governments (https://www.bvcog.org/about), the Brazos Valley region consists of the 7 counties:

Brazos (229,211)
Burleson (18,443)
Grimes (27,984)
Leon (17,225)
Madison (14,197)
Robertson (17,074)
Washington (35,882)

Total population: 360,016, so 87k is 24%. Still seems kinda high to me.
theNetSmith
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Here are the vaccine priority groups, according to the CDC:

Phase 1a (24 million people):
* Health care personnel
* Long-term care facility residents

Phase 1b (49 million people):
* Frontline essential workers
* People 75 and older

Phase 1c (129 million people):
* People ages 65-74
* People ages 16-64 with high-risk conditions
* Other essential workers

Phase 2:
* People 16 and older not in Phase 1


Locally, we have been talking about the members of group 1c as if they are actually in 1b. My gf is in this group, and she received her first shot at St. Joe's yesterday.

H-E-B's breakdown reflects this, and they actually have the "frontline essential workers" making up the 1c group: https://vaccine.heb.com/?int=curbside-home-hero.vaccine

Did Texas decide to change the makeup of groups 1b and 1c? If this has already been discussed, I missed it.
threecatcorner
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I saw something that said 1a, 1B tier 1, 1B tier 2, and then everybody else. I think it was on that statewide list of county vaccine hubs (which is just locations in 18 counties; it mentions they are focusing on hardest hit areas first so maybe those are the counties that have the most cases).
Nosmo
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https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/Summary?%3Aorigin=card_share_link&%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y


Here is the source of the numbers I have been posting from the state website. Several days ago I mentioned the increase in the numbers for "1B".

Go to the "Summary" tab, click on the "county", then detail "Population Group - Phases 1A and 1B"

The dropdown arrow breaks it down.

The data is on the hi-lighted square.

The data is for BRAZOS COUNTY only.

5,088 1a tier1 front line and vulnerable
5,688 1a tier2
649 1a LTC assisted living other
629 1a LTC nursing home
64,988 1b any medical condition front line & vulnerable
21,895 1b over 65

I am assuming this is how the state is allocating doses.

The 64,988 was not in the original "1B".


trouble
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Texas and many other states included others in 1b.
trouble
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This is the Texas 1b guidelines. If we are including the entire Brazos Valley, I can see how that could be 87k.

It's a weird way to break it out though because the counties in the BV all of different systems in place to distribute the vaccine. It's not going to happen at the same rate in all of them.
Nosmo
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https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/immunize/vaccine/EVAP-Phase1B.pdf

The 4th paragraph is the reason the 1B group ballooned.

Quote:

COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation

Phase 1B Definition

Background

Mortality and morbidity data collected over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic clearly
demonstrates that COVID-19 has the most severe effects on people who are 65 years and older
and individuals with comorbidities. Protecting these higher-risk individuals is of the utmost
concern in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Texas death certificate data, more than 70 percent of the deaths directly caused
by COVID-19 are among people 65 years and older. Additionally, a growing body of scientific
evidence shows that adults of any age with certain underlying medical conditions have an
increased risk of severe disease, defined as hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit,
mechanical ventilation or death.

In Texas, Phase 1B of vaccination will focus on people for whom there is strong and consistent
evidence that COVID-19 makes them more likely to become very sick or die. Preventing the
disease among people who have these risk factors will dramatically reduce the number of
Texans who die from the disease and relieve pressure on the healthcare system by reducing
hospital and ICU admissions. Vaccination will also reduce absenteeism among the front-line
workers at the greatest risk of severe disease and protect individuals at risk for health
inequities.

Because Phase 1B provides vaccine to higher-risk people regardless of their work sector or
status, it will provide protection for a number of critical populations at an increased risk of
getting COVID-19: communities that are disproportionately affected by COVID-19 and other
chronic diseases; teachers and school staff who ensure that Texas children can learn in a safe
environment; social services workers who ensure that those in need receive care and support;
workers who maintain critical infrastructure to support the Texas economy; and other front-line
workers who are unable to work remotely and so are more likely to be exposed.

As Texas progresses into Phase 1B in the coming weeks, the state will work with vaccine
providers and local partners to ensure that people who are 65 and older or have the medical
conditions listed below and who also work in front-line and critical industries have access to the
vaccine so they will be protected from COVID-19 while on the job. Texas equally will strive to
ensure vaccine reaches communities with health disparities in accordance with Texas Vaccine
Allocation Guiding Principles. Communication and outreach will encourage vaccine uptake
among these populations during Phase 1B.

Texas Phase 1B Vaccine Priorities

People 65 years of age and older
People 16 years of age and older with at least one chronic medical condition that puts
them at increased risk for severe illness from the virus that causes COVID-19, such as
but not limited to:
Cancer
Chronic kidney disease
COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)
Heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease or cardiomyopathies
Solid organ transplantation
Obesity and severe obesity (body mass index of 30 kg/m2 or higher)
Pregnancy
Sickle cell disease
Type 2 diabetes mellitus



threecatcorner
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St Joseph's questionnaire also listed smoking as something you could select as apparently qualifying you to get it. Kinda makes sense that smokers would be at higher risk so I get why they list it, but I don't see it on lists other than that.
Born&Raised
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https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/534524-federal-covid-19-vaccine-reserve-is-now-empty

We are out of vaccines... does this mean we are back to 100 a day here in Brazos County?

How long is this gonna take??
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cavscout96
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Slocum on a mobile said:

Born&Raised said:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/534524-federal-covid-19-vaccine-reserve-is-now-empty

We are out of vaccines... does this mean we are back to 100 a day here in Brazos County?

How long is this gonna take??


Forever, here in Brazos County. The feds are giving it to the states that give it out the fastest. The state (which is 47th) is giving it to metros who are giving it out faster. Smaller counties around us are starting next Tuesday.

We have a "dry run" on Monday, with no announcement of when they will actually begin in earnest. You can blame your elected officials, they really fumbled the ball here, and it's not like they didn't have months to plan.

They wait until it hits the ground, then appoint a guy to plan. Wheeee!
"fumbled the ball" is a mighty generous characterization..... I'd start with screwed the pooch, but even that is probably not even close to describing the level of incompetence I've witnessed here.
Nosmo
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https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week6.pdf

2175 doses = Week #6 allocation (available next week?).

The last 2 reports state:


Quote:

"This list includes only first doses of vaccine."

Nosmo
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Nosmo
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https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/VaccineDosesAllocated?%3Aorigin=card_share_link&%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y

The state vaccine website data presentation has had another change. They are showing the effect of second dose allocation.

Since states are now responsible for second doses, it appears they are now limiting what they "ship", and concentrate on "allocate".

Currently, I don't see this as an ability to vaccinate at the county level, but mostly lack of vaccine supply for first time shots.

The latest "allocation" has 3,900 doses reserved for second shot and 2,175 for first.

2000 - 2500 doses a week for first shot isn't enough.

Communication at the county level is still a big problem.

Born&Raised
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Nosmo said:

https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/VaccineDosesAllocated?%3Aorigin=card_share_link&%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y

The state vaccine website data presentation has had another change. They are showing the effect of second dose allocation.

Since states are now responsible for second doses, it appears they are now limiting what they "ship", and concentrate on "allocate".

Currently, I don't see this as an ability to vaccinate at the county level, but mostly lack of vaccine supply for first time shots.

The latest "allocation" has 3,900 doses reserved for second shot and 2,175 for first.

2000 - 2500 doses a week for first shot isn't enough.

Communication at the county level is still a big problem.




BECAUSE NO ONE CARES IN BRAZOS COUNTY - or else they would had a plan in place

Volunteers/nursing students previously recruited/trained - cites pre selected - leadership team in place - Syringe is bought and paid for Even from the nurses school from Blinn and A&M.

A call once a week with hospital leadership to make sure they have lists ready to go with names/numbers of people.

I mean honestly a College grad with a good heart and lots of energy could have done better then all these folks that claim to be the only ones capable of governing Brazos County.

The trouble is - A&M and CS is a transitory area and those are are here are retirees that like getting their special favors and students - who don't give a damn... so what is left is a VERY small group of people that slap each other on the back every 5 mins about how smart they are.

It does not take long for groupthink to dig in and before you know - when a real crisis happens - the whole things falls apart Because there are only so many UNQUALIFIED nephews and cousins you can put into special jobs before the system cannot support it.

But that the end of the day - as said above - the people that vote regularly - are already in on the game and vote to keep themselves in the special group (public employees and A&M profs - think CSAN ETC) that this town could burn to the ground and yet the council could be caught with the matches and they would still all get reelected.

That is the truth. The fix is in - the game is rigged - and either leave or shut up and deal with it.

"It's a big club - and you ain't in it"

There is no room for independent thought - action - or groups... only the people that will keep hiring the nieces and nephews of the well you do and "in" - so keep your head down - keep pushing the fraud and MAYBE just MAYBE you might to be one of the in crowd. Or not - in which case you can GTFO

That is Brazos County - A&M and the amount of money poured into this area covers up a lot of stupid acts and actions. I mean just look at the local media and tell me they have not been paid off...

They always are urging people to 'calm' and 'be patient' - rather than investigating why there was not a plan in place to begin with... because they are covering up for the powers that be!! The media is now the voice of the government here in BC - they do what they are told and highlight each little restaurant that opens Rather than focusing on... I dunno - Total failure of leadership
Nosmo
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B&R,

I'm not disagreeing with your comments, but my post was an attempt to justify the "current" situation.

The system of vaccination (with all it's flaws) is currently able to vaccinate over 3500 people a week. And I am guessing they can do more.

I was trying to show that vaccine is being "held in reserve" (my words not theirs) so 2nd doses are available.

If you look at the state website, you can see that 1st time dose are not available because they are saving "allocation" for those that need a second dose.

The federal level is not "reserving", and the the two suppliers are maxed out.

If they say 150 million doses that's 75 million people vaccinated, and we have around 100K in this county in groups 1A & 1B alone. Your guess is a good as mine on how many will actually want a shot, but I'm thinking the 1A & 1B group is higher than those reports of doctors saying 50-60%. I only know of 1 or 2 people in 1A or 1B that currently say they are not getting the shot, or knows of people not going to get the shot. And I am guessing they will get it once they see everybody else "surviving" the shot.

I'm not saying what's happened to date is good. I think the county is letting the local media explain what's going on, and they seem to have an agenda, or don't dig deep enough, or explain the situation accurately.

it's not easy to keep up with all the moving parts and explain it to the pubic, but that's the county's and the local media's job. I think that part has sucked most of all.



nought
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Nosmo said:

B&R,

I'm not disagreeing with your comments, but my post was an attempt to justify the "current" situation.

The system of vaccination (with all it's flaws) is currently able to vaccinate over 3500 people a week. And I am guessing they can do more.

I was trying to show that vaccine is being "held in reserve" (my words not theirs) so 2nd doses are available.

If you look at the state website, you can see that 1st time dose are not available because they are saving "allocation" for those that need a second dose.

The federal level is not "reserving", and the the two suppliers are maxed out.

If they say 150 million doses that's 75 million people vaccinated, and we have around 100K in this county in groups 1A & 1B alone. Your guess is a good as mine on how many will actually want a shot, but I'm thinking the 1A & 1B group is higher than those reports of doctors saying 50-60%. I only know of 1 or 2 people in 1A or 1B that currently say they are not getting the shot, or knows of people not going to get the shot. And I am guessing they will get it once they see everybody else "surviving" the shot.

I'm not saying what's happened to date is good. I think the county is letting the local media explain what's going on, and they seem to have an agenda, or don't dig deep enough, or explain the situation accurately.

it's not easy to keep up with all the moving parts and explain it to the pubic, but that's the county's and the local media's job. I think that part has sucked most of all.






Nosmo, vaccine being held in reserve is not the problem locally. Click this link and compare us to the success in Amarillo:

https://texags.com/forums/35/topics/3173628/replies/58559577

Vaccine being held for second doses isn't the reason we still don't have the vaccine hub going at the Brazos Center while the Amarillo Civic Center has been giving out doses, no appointment needed, since December 30.

Vaccine being held for second doses isn't the reason we have given first doses to only 3% of our 16+ population while Amarillo is over 10%.

The media needs to be on this in a big way and not let up until local leaders lead.
trouble
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Local media has been and I expect will continue to be worthless in all of this.
Nosmo
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Nought,

Again, I think the roll out in Brazos was not good, and I don't know all the reasons. Much of what I typed is speculation based on state data (which is a moving target). My post is intended to explain what we might see going forward based on current data. How we got here was reserved for the "complaint" thread.

I did Randall county using the state website.

1A & 1B pop:
69K compared to 99K in Brazos

1A healthcare workers pop:
4,700 vs 11,000

Total shots to date:
16,294 vs 6,245 to date in Brazos
15,000 vs 6,200 in last 3 weeks
3,300 vs 3,100 last week

1A LTC type shots
900 vs 1,300

65+ age shots
8,000 vs 3,000

Wk#6 Allocation:
2,000 (1,900 for 2nd dose) vs 6,075 (3,900 for second dose)

Here's my guess. The state initially said to give the shots to 1A only at first. Randall and Brazos started doing that. Abbott then said go to 1B as 1A was too slow. Randall started doing 1B big time, and Brazos did not.

Randall has a lot less 1A to vaccinate.
Randall vaccinated a lot more 1B.

Also, note that Randall is allocated 100 1st doses for Wk#6, Brazos is allocated 2,175.

I think Scott and White even commented that they would do healthcare workers first (regardless).

I am not defending what has happened prior (especially prior to last week). It also appears we are now getting comparable allocations based on need based on Wk#6 allocation.

I'm just guessing and until you talked about Amarillo, I hadn't detailed their numbers. It's apparent that different counties did things differently and Randall decided to open it up to 65+ earlier than Brazos.

The consequences of Randall is that they now only get 100 new doses for the first shot per WK#6 allocation.

I still see Brazos currently being a supply problem. It may have started as a shot administering issue (as did Randall), but I don't see how the Brazos center will help now, base on 3,600 shots last week administered per state data.

PS: Hopefully my numbers are correct, I looked a lot of detailed numbers quickly and didn't put it on a spreadsheet. There's now a lot of data on the state website (hopefully accurate) and it helps tell a story if you have the time.







 
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