B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

603,984 Views | 4423 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by cavscout96
cavscout96
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Rapier108 said:

59 new cases
62 new tests
0 deaths
23 in the hospital (+3)

Massive drop in the number of active cases and corresponding jump in recovered cases.

77801 +3
77802 +2
77803 +22
77805 +1 (first in this zip code)
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +9
77845 +16
Unknown +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.16.20.pdf
In response to Bill Oliver pushing them on it at yesterday's presser?

He essentially said, Your (BCHD) failure to get the "recovered" numbers in line is causing a lot of worry/concern. What is the ground truth as best you can tell?
Loaded
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cavscout96 said:

Rapier108 said:

59 new cases
62 new tests
0 deaths
23 in the hospital (+3)

Massive drop in the number of active cases and corresponding jump in recovered cases.

77801 +3
77802 +2
77803 +22
77805 +1 (first in this zip code)
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +9
77845 +16
Unknown +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.16.20.pdf
In response to Bill Oliver pushing them on it at yesterday's presser?

He essentially said, Your (BCHD) failure to get the "recovered" numbers in line is causing a lot of worry/concern. What is the ground truth as best you can tell?
So are they going to an "assumed recovered" model whereby someone is assumed to be recovered if they aren't in the hospital or deceased after several weeks?
Rapier108
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cavscout96 said:

Rapier108 said:

59 new cases
62 new tests
0 deaths
23 in the hospital (+3)

Massive drop in the number of active cases and corresponding jump in recovered cases.

77801 +3
77802 +2
77803 +22
77805 +1 (first in this zip code)
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +9
77845 +16
Unknown +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.16.20.pdf
In response to Bill Oliver pushing them on it at yesterday's presser?

He essentially said, Your (BCHD) failure to get the "recovered" numbers in line is causing a lot of worry/concern. What is the ground truth as best you can tell?
It's quite possible.

Unless the person is dead, in the hospital, or their doctor has reported the person still has not recovered, after a month or more, there is absolutely no reason to leave them on the active list. Most people just want to go on about their lives and not get tested over, and over, and over, especially when some tests keep returning false positives because it continues to detect the virus' corpse that is no longer infectious.

There are a few cases where people are still sick 8 weeks after the initial symptoms, and some even still test positive, but those are incredibly rare.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
benchmark
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Rapier108 said:

Clearly the BCHD is being lazy and not correcting those zip codes to reflect the residence, not a PO box.
Pfft ... no one can make a contextual decision using their data anyway.
cavscout96
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Loaded said:

cavscout96 said:

Rapier108 said:

59 new cases
62 new tests
0 deaths
23 in the hospital (+3)

Massive drop in the number of active cases and corresponding jump in recovered cases.

77801 +3
77802 +2
77803 +22
77805 +1 (first in this zip code)
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +9
77845 +16
Unknown +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.16.20.pdf
In response to Bill Oliver pushing them on it at yesterday's presser?

He essentially said, Your (BCHD) failure to get the "recovered" numbers in line is causing a lot of worry/concern. What is the ground truth as best you can tell?
So are they going to an "assumed recovered" model whereby someone is assumed to be recovered if they aren't in the hospital or deceased after several weeks?
not sure, but I would say it's a fairly safe bet.
isitjustme
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New cluster of 55 from the construction company on TAMU campus as per kbtx news story:

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/06/16/55-construction-workers-on-texas-am-campus-test-positive-for-covid-19/

I wonder if these were already included in the cluster count or if they need to be switched over from community.
EBrazosAg
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Congrats to Abbott staying reasonable about hospital capacity, etc. today. IMHO he's done about as well as he could through this, considering all sides pulling at him. Abbott for Prez in 2024?? Our biggest local threat to hospital capacity remains TDCJ. Hopefully someone in government will address and alter that problem.
aggielawyer00
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Is there a link to watch the press conference from today? I turned it on WAY late and missed almost everything (other than a question or two)
FlyRod
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Curious if reassurances about local hospital bed availability were only referring to COVID patients, or anyone else who might need oneheart attacks, strokes, cancer, etc. as COVID related hospitalizations rise.
deh40
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cavscout96 said:

Rapier108 said:

59 new cases
62 new tests
0 deaths
23 in the hospital (+3)

Massive drop in the number of active cases and corresponding jump in recovered cases.

77801 +3
77802 +2
77803 +22
77805 +1 (first in this zip code)
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +9
77845 +16
Unknown +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.16.20.pdf
In response to Bill Oliver pushing them on it at yesterday's presser?

He essentially said, Your (BCHD) failure to get the "recovered" numbers in line is causing a lot of worry/concern. What is the ground truth as best you can tell?
It's about time they got called out on the false narrative of their active cases number, which had been overstated by 150-200 for some time.
Rapier108
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aggielawyer00 said:

Is there a link to watch the press conference from today? I turned it on WAY late and missed almost everything (other than a question or two)

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
JMac03
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agrab86 said:

New cluster of 55 from the construction company on TAMU campus as per kbtx news story:

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/06/16/55-construction-workers-on-texas-am-campus-test-positive-for-covid-19/

I wonder if these were already included in the cluster count or if they need to be switched over from community.
I am going to "guess" some of these were already included in other days because I knew last week about ~30 of them testing positive.
KidDoc
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The good news with the A&M Cluster is that one was hospitalized x 24 hours and MOST never showed symptoms.

Again it seems that for those without the known risk factors this is overwhelmingly a mild disease.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't take reasonable precautions but the fear of liability and mass death is long gone IMO outside of high risk locations like nursing homes and hospitals. I think any large activities that one wants to attend should come with the known risk of getting COVID and you should plan accordingly.
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benchmark
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agrab86 said:

I wonder if these were already included in the cluster count or if they need to be switched over from community.
Sounds like BCHD's version of Abbott and Costello ... Community is 'Who', Cluster is 'What', and Travel is 'I don't know.'
lockett93
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

Spreadsheet Updated
FlyRod
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Quote:

Again it seems that for those without the known risk factors this is overwhelmingly a mild disease.


Would be great if true. Wish we had better data on what "recovered" means, given the reports of folks with symptoms lasting weeks after, messed up organs, neurological issues, etc. Websites appearing with "long-termers" sharing their "recovery" stories. We are a little over three months into this and we're still gathering data on long-term effects. Maybe people suffering these are .001% of the "recovered." Fantastic if true. Maybe herd immunity will happen (no medical/scientific consensus on that). Also fantastic if it turns out to be true.

And I hope such data become available soon to better help people make decisions about what to do or not do.
Rapier108
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KidDoc said:

The good news with the A&M Cluster is that one was hospitalized x 24 hours and MOST never showed symptoms.
And yet Sullivan said yesterday that we're not seeing asymptomatic cases in Brazos County.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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agrab86 said:

New cluster of 55 from the construction company on TAMU campus as per kbtx news story:

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/06/16/55-construction-workers-on-texas-am-campus-test-positive-for-covid-19/

I wonder if these were already included in the cluster count or if they need to be switched over from community.


Hard to say. Hard to trust much about the numbers or the way they are being reported.
cavscout96
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KidDoc said:

The good news with the A&M Cluster is that one was hospitalized x 24 hours and MOST never showed symptoms.

Again it seems that for those without the known risk factors this is overwhelmingly a mild disease.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't take reasonable precautions but the fear of liability and mass death is long gone IMO outside of high risk locations like nursing homes and hospitals. I think any large activities that one wants to attend should come with the known risk of getting COVID and you should plan accordingly.


Thanks KD. I have pretty reliable source that echoes the same. Almost entirely asymptomatic.
chiwowwow
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Why do you say that MOST were asymptomatic is "good news"?
isitjustme
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chiwowwow said:

Why do you say that MOST were asymptomatic is "good news"?

My guess is because they're not sick, which would be bad for them personally and for hospital space. Plus it reinforces the common knowledge that most people without underlying conditions are rarely negatively impacted. Plus, many studying this are saying it is very difficult for those with no symptoms to spread it to others, so those who were asymptomatic didn't negatively impact others.

All of this is good news.
chiwowwow
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Guess I would beg to differ! I work in a cluster. Many asymptomatic, quietly passing it unknowingly to 65 other people in the same building! Pretty sure even the asymptomatic are passing it on. Would not make sense that these clusters containing 40+ positive cases have symptomatic people showing up to work obviously sick and passing it, so I believe that asymptomatic cases are surely passing it. I feel that is what makes this so dangerous.
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chiwowwow said:

Guess I would beg to differ! I work in a cluster. Many asymptomatic, quietly passing it unknowingly to 65 other people in the same building! Pretty sure even the asymptomatic are passing it on. Would not make sense that these clusters containing 40+ positive cases have symptomatic people showing up to work obviously sick and passing it, so I believe that asymptomatic cases are surely passing it. I feel that is what makes this so dangerous.
Without recalling the exact number tested (150ish) and 50 or so positive from that one cluster...1 out of 3 tells me it spreads pretty easily even if they are asymptomatic.
aggietoolman
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I believe Rusty said on news tonight that all but 6 of the 55 had no symptoms.
b0ridi
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chiwowwow said:

Guess I would beg to differ! I work in a cluster. Many asymptomatic, quietly passing it unknowingly to 65 other people in the same building! Pretty sure even the asymptomatic are passing it on. Would not make sense that these clusters containing 40+ positive cases have symptomatic people showing up to work obviously sick and passing it, so I believe that asymptomatic cases are surely passing it. I feel that is what makes this so dangerous.
People show up to work sick all the time. Especially if you work at a place like Sanderson (not an office job that can be done from home) and you're living paycheck-to-paycheck.
MiMi
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S
It would also be helpful to follow the asymptomatic positive cases to see if they develop symptoms in the next few days. I believe the ability to transmit the virus is greater in those that are presymptomatic or have such mild symptoms they don't even realize it could be coronavirus (vs. allergies, etc).
isitjustme
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aggietoolman said:

I believe Rusty said on news tonight that all but 6 of the 55 had no symptoms.
This tells me the 6 with symptoms likely spread it to 49 others but not the rest.

A WHO doctor said last week that transmission from asymptomatic is very rare. Other WHO staff had to walk that back the next day, likely because the former accidentally told the truth, a truth which didn't fit their political agenda. Given WHO's record, I'm prepared to trust the first statement.
tb9665
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I agree with MiMi we need to watch others.
cavscout96
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chiwowwow said:

Why do you say that MOST were asymptomatic is "good news"?



"Again it seems that for those without the known risk factors this is overwhelmingly a mild disease."

Plus, even a rudimentary understanding of the principles of epidemiology would lead you to the only logical conclusion. This doesn't end until herd immunity is established. Period.

That happens one of two ways

1. Widespread vaccination
2. Widespread infection and recovery

So, evidence of a large number of folks infected but not showing symptoms gives us two good things to consider.

1. It's spreading, and we are inching, ever so slowly, to achieving the ONLY thing that resolves this pandemic. Herd immunity.

2. It is VERY likely that this disease has been here WAY longer than we thought and we are actually moderately closer to getting there than the reported numbers would lead you to believe.

So, "Good News."

But if hysteria works better for you, by all means....
toolshed
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chiwowwow said:

Why do you say that MOST were asymptomatic is "good news"?



Scout didn't say "good news" in the post above yours unless I missed something. KidDoc did, and as he's stated before in this thread, his main concern is hospitalizations. People are going to get sick, it's not going away. But if there can get sick and recover without hospital intervention or overwhelming the system, that's "good news".
FlyRod
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Quote:

Plus, even a rudimentary understanding of the principles of epidemiology would lead you to the only logical conclusion. This doesn't end until herd immunity is established. Period.


There is no medical/scientific consensus that herd immunity is forthcoming with this very aptly named "novel" corona virus.

So to cast this as the only possible ending is disingenuous, period. At best.
australopithecus robustus
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So refreshing to see a voice of reason amidst all of the hysteria. I'm still flummoxed by much of the public reaction. The numbers WILL go up. Life WILL go on. Now, act accordingly.
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

Quote:

Plus, even a rudimentary understanding of the principles of epidemiology would lead you to the only logical conclusion. This doesn't end until herd immunity is established. Period.


There is no medical/scientific consensus that herd immunity is forthcoming with this very aptly named "novel" corona virus.

So to cast this as the only possible ending is disingenuous, period. At best.


Not sure what you are driving at here. There isn't going to be, and doesn't need to be, any consensus. Herd immunity is how epidemics/pandemics end. How long it takes to get there is certainly a matter of debate, but that doesn't change the end result.

I'm completely genuine, all day, every day.

cavscout96
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australopithecus robustus said:

So refreshing to see a voice of reason amidst all of the hysteria. I'm still flummoxed by much of the public reaction. The numbers WILL go up. Life WILL go on. Now, act accordingly.


This may be the nicest thing anyone has ever said about me.


We should never meet in person.

#thatwasajoke #iactuallyDOhaveasenseofhumor
Esteban du Plantier
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I like you.
 
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