B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

609,213 Views | 4442 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by MiMi
KidDoc
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AG
We do not need to watch that A&M Cluster because it is done. Per the story the first test was on 6/1 then everyone was tested on 6/3. This cluster is resolved. The overwhelming majority of people without risk factors seem to NEVER DEVELOP SYMPTOMS. This is great news.

The question of spread is difficult. Likely their viral loud in their secretions is MUCH lower so it would take long, close, intense contact to spread. Things like sexual activity, singing or shouting in close contact, actively coughing or sneezing in close proximity. What the WHO studies show is that asymptomatic spreading with casual contact is pretty rare.

As mentioned above what likely happened here is a worker came in feeling a bit "off" then became ill and he likely spread it to everyone on that 1-2 day. We have all gone to work with a headache, sore throat, body aches and just chalked it up to allergies or overactivity or too much booze the night before. This virus seems to spread past immediately when symptoms begin but those symptoms can be non specific and mild.

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JMac03
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What I don't understand is how they are saying asymptomatic do not spread.

Look at the 55 cases from the Dunn renovation on campus. Per the article, only 6 people showed symptoms. Is that not a pretty good argument of asymptotic spread?
trouble
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AG
Only if you assume that each symptomatic person is only going to infect a couple people. 6 symptomatic people could easily infect dozens.
MiMi
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S
145 daily cases http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.17.20.pdf
Koldus131
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AG
Nvm see above
Fitch
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Asymptomatic can spread. But think about it, if you're not sneezing and coughing or wiping a running nose on your hand and touching things, you're a lot less likely to pass it along to someone else.
Rapier108
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145 new cases
1460 new tests
0 new deaths
I think its 27 in the hospital which would be +5, -1

77801 +5
77802 +3
77803 +24
77806 +1
77807 +5
77808 +6
77840 +27
77845 +21
Unknown +53

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.17.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
KidDoc
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JMac03 said:

What I don't understand is how they are saying asymptomatic do not spread.

Look at the 55 cases from the Dunn renovation on campus. Per the article, only 6 people showed symptoms. Is that not a pretty good argument of asymptotic spread?
All of these positives happened in a VERY short time frame, speaking about the A&M cluster. It is highly likely that one or two workers showed up not feeling well, coughed or sneezes or even talked loudly in close proximity and could easily expose the other 50 people. In this case it was not a continuous slow spread by asymptomatic carriers and you could argue it did not spread because they quickly locked it down with testing ALL close contacts and quarantine until the test came back negative and then continued quarantine of the positives.

This is what is referred to as "super spreader" events and it has been documented that a single symptomatic person can infects hundreds in a proper environment and situation. This has been shown in choir practice, bars, concerts, and will likely be shown in the recent protests although being outdoors seems to offer some inherent protection through currents & UV radiation. This is why there is so much consternation about mass gatherings like sporting events, concerts, political rallies.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
BQ_90
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AG
or they didn't clean the portopotty they all used.
trouble
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That's correct on the hospitalizations.

Big things to look at since I know the media is going to flip over topping 1000 cases. We still only have 25 deaths and none of those are in young, healthy individuals. Almost 500 cases are now listed as recovered.
Rapier108
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trouble said:

That's correct on the hospitalizations.

Big things to look at since I know the media is going to flip over topping 1000 cases. We still only have 25 deaths and none of those are in young, healthy individuals. Almost 500 cases are now listed as recovered.
Won't matter since every local media outlet will go in full meltdown mode.

I still don't see how we avoid another lock down type situation given the hysteria and our local leaders known willingness to do it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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AG
Just trying to educate those here. The local media is a joke over all this.
FlyRod
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It sounds like state and local govt offices have ruled out lockdowns. More likely is businesses closing on their own, as staff get sick (what I'm hearing from my Houston friends in the bar/restaurant industry). Of course, as others have pointed out here before, we have sketchy data (at best) about locations where infections have occurred.
ChampsAg
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Yesterday 8% of tested were positive

No one made a big deal of the 113 recovered from yesterday.

All they want to do is point out the negative. My understanding is that all the new cases are from the backlog of tests being performed the last few weeks
trouble
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AG
The number of tests and positives don't correlate anyway. They report a test a soon as it's done not when results are received.
freshfrenchfryfanatic
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This may be an ignorant question but how is there an "unknown" zip code option?
K2T2
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That's nearly a third of the cases locally being discovered in the past week. Maths!
Rapier108
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freshfrenchfryfanatic said:

This may be an ignorant question but how is there an "unknown" zip code option?
Unless it is the construction workers, who knows.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Is Not a Turtle
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I believe it's time for the local press and public to demand more information. Maybe a letter writing campaign to force the local authorities to deliver results that better quantify the data. I'm not smart enough to figure this out but I know a few things.

The date an individual is tested is a data point and the date that test returns is a data point. Tests are performed individually so we should be able to note when the tests occurred and when they are delivered and these should be known data points.

Some of you have pointed to a lag from the time the test is ordered to when it is delivered but the results are listed in bulk.

As well, we should be able to show what facilities are doing the testing. Is it every clinic from here to California inundated with patients? Are there troubled areas?

All of this data can and should be delivered by the health department so that we can better understand what we are dealing with.

At the end of the day, statistically, we are an over educated populace and the data we are getting, the response from the media, and the inability of local leadership to provide solid guidance are simply unacceptable to the public. We literally have a center for the study of epidemiology that is fully staffed and we can't produce better data than this. It's pitiful.

I'll go back to lurking.
aggiepm
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AG
How would you change the local media coverage? Emphasize/deemphasize certain metrics? Are the TV broadcasts more reactionary?

FWIW, I feel like KBTX's daily updates are pretty objective. You could build a bot to write these daily updates, lol.
JP76
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Anyone hearing if the Casa Ole in Bryan is closed from CV related issues ?


Sign posted saying short staff and doing maintenance
JMac03
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AG
Some tests are returned the same day, but I assume most are not. I know that Brazos Valley Urgent Care is offering the rapid test for $50 (plus whatever copay) and results are back in about 30 minutes.
Carnwellag2
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MiMi said:

It would also be helpful to follow the asymptomatic positive cases to see if they develop symptoms in the next few days. I believe the ability to transmit the virus is greater in those that are presymptomatic or have such mild symptoms they don't even realize it could be coronavirus (vs. allergies, etc).
this has been shown false
happyinBCS
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The interview with Sullivan just now on KBTX is way over the top, pure scare tactics and total softball questions from KBTX
aggiegal99
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I have a friend who works at Sanderson Farm. This person got results yesterday from the test taken 8 days prior. That could explain the jump in positives, if those tests are just now being returned.
KidDoc
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AG
Carnwellag2 said:

MiMi said:

It would also be helpful to follow the asymptomatic positive cases to see if they develop symptoms in the next few days. I believe the ability to transmit the virus is greater in those that are presymptomatic or have such mild symptoms they don't even realize it could be coronavirus (vs. allergies, etc).
this has been shown false


Woah there. It has been shown to be a "rare cause" of spread. That is not 0 cases just a small percentage.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
benchmark
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AG
happyinBCS said:

The interview with Sullivan just now on KBTX is way over the top, pure scare tactics and total softball questions from KBTX
Public trust is earned ... not granted ... and not something to squander during a pandemic. Totally underwhelmed by their intentional non-transparency the past 3 months.
ChampsAg
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I had a friend get tested yesterday. It was no charge where he went. Results in 3-5 days.

He also said that they told him that most people tested don't come back to get another test 10-14 days later.
jeffk
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AG
There's no way to determine how many of the tests were follow-up tests for those who'd already tested positive is there?
Mr. Griswold
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Our greatest fears are starting to come true
toolshed
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AG
Mr. Griswold said:

Our greatest fears are starting to come true


Greatest fears??
saltydog13
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EBrazosAg
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As a health care professional, I have no confidence in the total test number accuracy. Somewhat better confidence in total positive test numbers. Back to no confidence in the recovered number. Hospitalized and death numbers probably pretty accurate. Positive test/ total test numbers could be off by factors of 1.5-3 or 4 from what I hear about testing numbers around the area. IMHO ... they just need to report numbers and not have the presser. They are loosing credibility as those who are in a place to know realize the absurdity of some of the numbers. Sullivan needs to preserve his well deserved credibility by not being associated with the inaccuracies.
cavscout96
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AG
Too late.
FlyRod
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EBrazosAg, So what is your sense...official numbers are under or over-stating the magnitude/severity of what's happening?
 
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