B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

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benchmark
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EBrazosAg said:

I nominate "active cases" as the most useless statistic. Since the HD admitted they aren't really following up on recovery, why even list it ? Maybe as a proxy of a running recent total... but then just do that and call it what it is.
I nominate BCHD's version of "community spread" as the most misleading. From contact tracing investigations, there are 2 source categories at the top of every infection source hierarchy ... known and unknown
  • Known - contracted from exposure to a known infected source.
  • Unknown - contracted from exposure to an unknown infection source within the community.
Neither of these can be determined from BCHD reports ... and both are fundamental tenents of epidemiology.
EBrazosAg
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KidDoc said:

EBrazosAg said:

I nominate "active cases" as the most useless statistic. Since the HD admitted they aren't really following up on recovery, why even list it ? Maybe as a proxy of a running recent total... but then just do that and call it what it is.
I think active cases is the most important followed closely by hospitalizations. Even if they cannot reach a specific case for follow up, after 2 weeks from diagnosis they are either dead or recovered.

The total cases is worthless.




Kinda making my point ... a running 14 day total would be way more helpful than one that is variable length and by admission based on bad data. In the end, hospitalizations is the most important stat. The really interesting stat would be following hospitalization vs new cases for the trailing 5-12 day period since the turn for the worse usually occurs around 7-12 days. Of course, day of diagnosis varies from person to person compared to day of symptom onset.
Fitch
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Texas state level data uses a formula for calculating active cases, or rather the "recovery rate". Basically split the cases 80/20 for mild/hospitalized cases and estimate 15 days for recovery of the mild cases and 30 days for the hospitalized.

Pulling that out of memory so the numbers may be a little off.
isitjustme
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doubledog said:

Today is June 13. 14 days ago it was memorial day.
While a week off on this, it has been 2 weeks since our first Floyd/BLM protests. Young people from CS were involved in both of those.
Rapier108
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Oogway said:

Would total cases (not active), give one a very rough idea of the area's potential immunity? It would be inaccurate due to the initial lack of widespread testing, but better than nothing.
Maybe to some degree, but since there are likely 5-10 times the real number of cases, it doesn't help much. Total cases simply means how many positive tests there have been.

Given this thing has been around in the US since early January, at least on the west coast, it's likely we've had cases here well before the first official one, and its been slowing burning its way through the community. Very few young people are dying from it, and how many of them don't even report having minor symptoms? How many people in January and February had it, but assumed it was a cold or the flu?

It now looks like this thing was loose in Wuhan back in September or October. The number of people going to the hospital spiked around that time, as did Internet searches from Wuhan for all of the usual symptoms such as cough, loss of taste/smell, etc.

If it truly was around that far back, then its been in Brazos County a lot longer than when the first positive test was reported.

An interesting thing I wish someone could research or ask about (KBTX, since I know you read TexAgs, time to do some real journalism) is whether or not there was an usually high number of hospitalizations for pneumonia from January 1 through mid-March. The 2019-2020 flu season was being particularly nasty, so one has to wonder if many of supposed flu cases are in fact the coronavirus.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Flu-virus-has-hit-Brazos-County-hard-this-flu-season-567568211.html

Maybe the BCHD should try to contact those who were hospitalize for the flu, and have antibody tests run on them to see if they had coronavirus. Not the quick antibody test which isn't reliable, but the one which uses a blood draw and sent off to the lab for the more accurate test.

And flu tests are notoriously unreliable, with a false negative rate up to 50%. I've had the flu plenty of times in the past 10 years (even with the flu shot), and only once tested positive for it, and that was a year I got it twice. The positive test was for the "A" strain IIRC. The doctor said the other was probably the "B" strain.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
deh40
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KidDoc said:

EBrazosAg said:

I nominate "active cases" as the most useless statistic. Since the HD admitted they aren't really following up on recovery, why even list it ? Maybe as a proxy of a running recent total... but then just do that and call it what it is.
I think active cases is the most important followed closely by hospitalizations. Even if they cannot reach a specific case for follow up, after 2 weeks from diagnosis they are either dead or recovered.

The total cases is worthless.


I agree active cases would be the most important if it was accurate. But unless something has changed in the last two weeks, the HD previously said they were not dropping cases after 2 weeks if they could not be contacted.

Based on their published numbers 504 out of 803 still active? Every positive case should be dropped after 14 days whether they can be reached so we get a real active cases number.
MBAR
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The protests will have an impact without a doubt, but even if you consider the 60k that were present at the largest localish protest in Houston, the numbers of people doing things on a regular basis that require human contact are FAR greater in simple daily life. We're talking Millions in the local area that have interpersonal contact.

So we should probably stop looking for individual events to try to pin daily increases to. At this point the most likely culprit for people getting it is just going to be normal everyday activity.
lockett93
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

Spreadsheet updated.

They moved 15 cases from cluster to community.

For 14 days active cases, look at my last 7 days column, then go back 1 week and get the prior 7 days. Add together and you have total cases under 14 days old...

Rapier108
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18 new cases
121 new tests
0 deaths
20 in the hospital (+6 -2)

77801 +1
77802 +3
77803 +2
77807 +1
77808 +1
77840 +5
77845 +5

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.15.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
FlyRod
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Do we have any sense of the average length of time a local case is hospitalized before discharge?

Apologies if I missed that somewhere.
Rapier108
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FlyRod said:

Do we have any sense of the average length of time a local case is hospitalized before discharge?

Apologies if I missed that somewhere.
No way to really tell that I can see since we don't know who is being discharged. Were they there a couple of days, or had they been there a month? We'd have to ask Sullivan, but our local media won't, and he'd probably refuse to answer anyway.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Fitch
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Locally, no. But the CDC provides aggregated information for planning scenarios.

For general ward admits, average 4 days to a week if you're younger, or 1-2 weeks(ish) if you're older. For ICU patients, basically double that (in general).

asoiaf
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asoiaf
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CS Iron 25 said:

The Cove at BearX was closed for cleaning after several staff were "exposed". It was on their Facebook this week (June 11th).
This
Rapier108
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From the press conference.

Went through the usual daily/weekly numbers. We all know what those numbers are so not going to go over that.

Our positive rate is higher than Houston (and Houston is considering going back on lock down)

Sullivan says the numbers is about to explode, testing is not increasing, and said almost all is community spread.

64% (16) of the 25 deaths were from nursing homes.

Duane Peters said our country could collapse over this virus if people don't do what they're told.

Q&A:

The Eagle asks wants to know if we could reach a point where we have to go back to the same shutdown orders in March and April. Sullivan said a lot of words, but gave the Glomar response. He said it is mostly transmitting in close contact enviroments like homes, apartments, etc.

KAGS asks about hospital beds. Sullivan said we're okay right now, but he is "concerned" about the, wait for it, "next two weeks."

WTAW asks the same basic question. Sullivan says current ICU capacity is 50-60%. Ventilator capacity is around 25%. Actually have 37 people in the hospital, 17 are not from Brazos County.

Okay, got to do some stuff. Bill Oliver won't shut up so no idea what KBTX will ask.

At this point, I don't see how our local leaders don't try to shut down the county again. They are so risk averse and have made it very clear that they will not consider economic, social, mental health impacts etc.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Fitch
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Stating the obvious, but how this is handled will have an impact on how the fall semester and football are handled, so...no pressure.
EBrazosAg
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Our elected officials need to hold the TDCJ accountable for straining our local resources and not handling their cases inside their system at UTMB and other internal resources.
cavscout96
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Rapier108 said:

From the press conference.

Went through the usual daily/weekly numbers. We all know what those numbers are so not going to go over that.

Our positive rate is higher than Houston (and Houston is considering going back on lock down)

Sullivan says the numbers is about to explode, testing is not increasing, and said almost all is community spread.

64% (16) of the 25 deaths were from nursing homes.

Duane Peters said our country could collapse over this virus if people don't do what they're told.

Q&A:

The Eagle asks wants to know if we could reach a point where we have to go back to the same shutdown orders in March and April. Sullivan said a lot of words, but gave the Glomar response. He said it is mostly transmitting in close contact enviroments like homes, apartments, etc.

KAGS asks about hospital beds. Sullivan said we're okay right now, but he is "concerned" about the, wait for it, "next two weeks."

WTAW asks the same basic question. Sullivan says current ICU capacity is 50-60%. Ventilator capacity is around 25%. Actually have 37 people in the hospital, 17 are not from Brazos County.

Okay, got to do some stuff. Bill Oliver won't shut up so no idea what KBTX will ask.

At this point, I don't see how our local leaders don't try to shut down the county again. They are so risk averse and have made it very clear that they will not consider economic, social, mental health impacts etc.

KBTX asked a two part question. Sullivan gave an expected non-answer, but the second part was for A&M communications guy.

The back and forth was a little confrontational.

essentially, it was

KBTX: "can you give us a number of students and staff/faculty who have tested positive?"

A&M: Its not appropriate for me to give you specifics like that..... non answer.....respect others.....blah, blah.

KBTX: Wait a cotton-pickin minute! YOU are a state agency what do you mean "It's not appropriate?" When are you going to disclose the information? As a public institution you are responsible to the people.

A&M: I don't have the info. Even if I did, I wouldn't give it to you. I'll ask Big Brother if I can tell you.

------------------------------------

I had a little different take on Peters. He was pretty negative about compliance, but I took his response as "There is no way we can go back to that stupid stunt we pulled in March, the local, state, and national economies would collapse."
Fitch
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No offense intended, but that's not really a fair representation of the exchange. Both parties were a lot more amicable/respectful.
cavscout96
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Fitch said:

No offense intended, but that's not really a fair representation of the exchange. Both parties were a lot more amicable/respectful.
None taken, but I'm not sure I agree.

Both Bill Oliver and Rusty pushed back more on the typical "non-answers" than I've seen in the past.

I was glad to hear them finally attempt to get something that resembles useful information.
Fitch
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Agreed!
oklaunion
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Fitch said:

No offense intended, but that's not really a fair representation of the exchange. Both parties were a lot more amicable/respectful.
Agree. No sense in mocking the spokespersons with made up conversations with quotes around them.

Regarding the comment about TDC, the county invited them to set up camp in Bryan years ago, not the other way around. Besides, there is no state agency that gives less of a damn about what a city or county thinks about them.
theNetSmith
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oklaunion said:

Fitch said:

No offense intended, but that's not really a fair representation of the exchange. Both parties were a lot more amicable/respectful.
Agree. No sense in mocking the spokespersons with made up conversations with quotes around them.
I was amused. I say we let it stand.
tb9665
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Has anyone noticed the Austin and Travis County also has had an increase in cases? Austin leaders are suggesting that restaurants go back to 25% and promote more curbside again. I wonder if this has something to do with the Gov. speaking today?
cavscout96
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oklaunion said:

Fitch said:

No offense intended, but that's not really a fair representation of the exchange. Both parties were a lot more amicable/respectful.
Agree. No sense in mocking the spokespersons with made up conversations with quotes around them.

Regarding the comment about TDC, the county invited them to set up camp in Bryan years ago, not the other way around. Besides, there is no state agency that gives less of a damn about what a city or county thinks about them.
point of order. I didn't quote the spokesman, but I stand by the characterization of his remarks.
FlyRod
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I saw where Abbott lashed out at "20 somethings" (his language) for not behaving responsibly. Didn't give specifics.

Maybe he's thinking about Northgate in a few weeks.
Oogway
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Northgate? I'd rather not speculate about what the governor was thinking when he mentioned "20 somethings" but I would be highly skeptical that Northgate crossed his mind. Generically speaking, bars and clubs could be exposure sites, but I am doubtful he's given much thought beyond that.

One of the potential issues I've seen cropping up in various urban locales or tourist spots is when an employee is exposed either through work or through a family member. Owner either has to close to clean, or send employee home and stay open or reopen. If it runs through the employees, then it's hard to stay operational. (i.e. some customers if aware will stay away--hurts business. Business closes due to illness--hurts business). Businesses are really between a rock and a hard place. Tough times.
FlyRod
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Agreed. I would like to see data on how local reopened businesses are doing. We hear stories about places being packed, and also about people who won't venture into any (and who used to). Restaurants which always operate on a thin margin in the best of times have to be getting hit hard.
tb9665
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I wonder where today's numbers are? Kind of late
isitjustme
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59 new cases today, no new deaths.

Not on facebook yet but in their pdf.

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.16.20.pdf
Rapier108
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59 new cases
62 new tests
0 deaths
23 in the hospital (+3)

Massive drop in the number of active cases and corresponding jump in recovered cases.

77801 +3
77802 +2
77803 +22
77805 +1 (first in this zip code)
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +9
77845 +16
Unknown +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.16.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Koldus131
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What's the deal with 77803?

Based on the continued large increases in 77840 and 77845, seems like a lot of the student population is starting to test positive. Lines up with the governor's comments today about lots of spread across the state in the under 30 population.
BlueMiles
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I wish the health department would take a refresher course on HIPAA, PII and PHI. Or maybe someone can explain to me how "one person is (or is not) a student at A&M" could possibly identify an individual.
isitjustme
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Rapier108 said:

59 new cases
62 new tests
0 deaths
23 in the hospital (+3)

Massive drop in the number of active cases and corresponding jump in recovered cases.

77801 +3
77802 +2
77803 +22
77805 +1 (first in this zip code)
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +9
77845 +16
Unknown +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.16.20.pdf
FYI, 77805 and 77806 are your zip codes if you have a p.o. box at one of the 2 Bryan post offices while 77841 is the zip code for the CS post office on 2818. Nobody lives in any of those 3 zip codes.
Rapier108
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agrab86 said:

FYI, 77805 and 77806 are your zip codes if you have a p.o. box at one of the 2 Bryan post offices while 77841 is the zip code for the CS post office on 2818. Nobody lives in any of those 3 zip codes.

Clearly the BCHD is being lazy and not correcting those zip codes to reflect the residence, not a PO box.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
 
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