B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

802,853 Views | 5546 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by trouble
AFM
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I come here daily to get the update from Rapier108 (Thank you). KBTX listing the total cases in each zip code is not much of help. With a big jump in daily number, I'd hope the authority can comment more so people can manage risk of exposure accordingly.
Rapier108
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bobinator said:

If families and stuff go to the media that's different, but at this point it's clear they aren't going to answer anything that isn't in the press release.

The city government media here is a pretty small group of people so I'm certain they're sharing everything they can.
No, they're really not.

When this first started, people were asking for information of where a person went in the days before they showed symptoms. They claimed they couldn't say which was complete BS. Other counties were doing it so there was clearly nothing preventing them from providing that information. No one asked for names, or the addresses of where the person lived. Hays County would put out press releases saying the person had been to this location, in this time frame. This allowed people to know they might have been exposed so they would watch for evidence of infection.

All they had to do about The Waterford is tell people that the spike in 77845 cases was cluster related. They did not have to name the location. Heck, a few Ag shacks infected would create a quick double digit spike.

On Monday, here is what I would ask.

Without naming any specific locations, how many new clusters have you identified, and how many are residential vs. commercial/nursing homes?

Are you still seeing new cases that can be connected to Sanderson Farms and Park at Traditions?

For those cases which are not cluster related in reference to a single location (business, building, nursing home etc.), how many appear to be from the protests? If so, do you classify those as community or cluster?

Does there appear to be a problem with spread in local bars/restaurants? If so, do you classify those as community or cluster?

Edit: Two more I thought of.

When it comes to positive tests, how many are from doctor offices, hospitals, drive through testing, private testing, the state nursing home program, etc.? (The answer does not have to be specific numbers, just something basic such as "most come from drive through testings, followed by hospitals, and the rest is spread out among the others.")

Of the positive tests, how many are asymptomatic?
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
MiMi
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S
Quote:

Maybe, but have we heard of any local places shutting down for 1-2 days due to staff being sick so the place can be cleaned?
Quarry Bar temporarily closed after employee contracts COVID-19
bobinator
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AG
Families going to the media is very different because that's a different source of information.

Is the same Eagle reporter attending all of these? Who is it?
Rapier108
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MiMi said:

Quote:

Maybe, but have we heard of any local places shutting down for 1-2 days due to staff being sick so the place can be cleaned?
Quarry Bar temporarily closed after employee contracts COVID-19
So that's one, but defiantly not the place that most college students are going to.

And the employee was exposed outside of the work place. Thankfully, given the time frame in the article, the risk of spread from the employee appears to be low.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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bobinator said:

Families going to the media is very different because that's a different source of information.

Is the same Eagle reporter attending all of these? Who is it?
Off the top of my head, I don't remember the name of The Eagle's reporter.

And yes, families are different than government officials. That said, the BCHD still could have told us the increase in cases at that time was almost completely cluster related without identifying the location, but they wouldn't even do that.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
bobinator
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AG
Are they even taking questions at these things? I just saw the Eagle's last several stories have been staff reports.
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KidDoc
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FlyRod said:

Very possible those younger cases are restaurant and bar staff, contracting it from unmasked customers.


If you think cloth masks are going to prevent you from getting any virus. Good luck buddy. If you are engaging in high risk activities go N95.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
FlyRod
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I agree with you about N95 masks. Maybe as a medical professional, you can add your voice to the chorus saying we need many more of those (especially in your field). And I also appreciate you recognizing restaurant and bar staff as high risk employees.
Rapier108
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bobinator said:

Are they even taking questions at these things? I just saw the Eagle's last several stories have been staff reports.
They do a Q&A.

Usually the press conference starts with Sullivan saying which local officials are there, mentioning the day's numbers, and then a talking about what's been happening for the past week. Sometimes they'll have the local officials speak while other times they only speak during the Q&A.

After that they do the Q&A. None of the reporters are actually at the press conference, but call in to ask questions. The four that are always there are WTAW, The Eagle, KBTX, and KAGS.

KBTX live streams the press conference on "Livestream 2" and WTAW plays it live on the radio and their stream. Starts every Monday at 4:30.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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Death was a male in his 50s. This is only the second death of anyone younger than 60 in Brazos county.

I wonder if the travel related case from the other day was one of the returning football players.
trouble
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It's not even somewhere a lot of people are going.
Rapier108
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trouble said:

It's not even somewhere a lot of people are going.
That too.

And those that do go there are probably over 50.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Fitch
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bobinator
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Has anyone emailed the Eagle's news email? It is weird some of those questions haven't been asked.
CS Iron 25
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The Cove at BearX was closed for cleaning after several staff were "exposed". It was on their Facebook this week (June 11th).
Inca
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Washington County publishes age range, gender and status of each case. So you can easily see the demographics of current hospitalizations.
Fitch
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Thanks for the heads up. I wasn't aware.
benchmark
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Inca said:

Washington County publishes age range, gender and status of each case. So you can easily see the demographics of current hospitalizations.
Lubbock does a fair job. For example, they report each case AND they identify each case infection source .... AND they report community infections by retailer's name, address, and date/time ... AND they report community cases by zip code. Lubbock's infection source classifications are still too broad IMO .... (only 4) community, exposure, travel, nursing home ... they could do better (say 8-10 infection source classifications).

Probably others counties/cities are doing a better job than Lubbock ... regardless, BCS is worse than Lubbock. Let that sink in.
dubi
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Dr Frank is on a huge rant today about using "number of cases" to scare us!

Quote:

"Reported vs Date-Assigned Data"

No matter how many times we talk about it here, it seems that lots of folks are still not getting this.
What you typically hear in the media or on the front page of your state websites are the *cumulative* and *reported* numbers of cases and deaths.

These numbers are essentially useless and often meaningless without knowing the assigned dates, the geographical information, and the testing protocols.

Especially these days, many of the "reported" cases and deaths are from weeks or even months ago. These days it's not usually about testing lags. It's about definitions, testing protocols, and vital records review.

And these days the reported numbers for an actual infection are typically from one tiny portion of a state, while the rest of the state is quiet. So averaging the numbers from a tiny portion of a state over the whole state gives the wrong impression.

At this juncture in the pandemic you really need more granular information. You need to know both the *trends* and *locations* for the reported numbers. You need to know whether the cases are symptomatic or not. You need to know how many tests they are giving, where, and why.
You need to know the *actual date* the person died or the date their symptoms started. Not the date when the numbers are reported.

And wherever such granular information is available, it confirms that the Covid-19 epidemic is essentially over in the US.

Certainly some hot spots remain. But the wild epidemic is essentially over.
From the beginning of this, I have told you that cases are the wrong way to monitor the epidemic because the numbers are unreliable and easily manipulable. Cases numbers are barely useful as a source of clues.

So whenever a media source focuses on reported cases, you automatically know that the intent of the report is something other than to inform.

And when someone begins their comments with a discussion of cases, it usually means that they don't understand the numbers.

Quote:

"Cases, 1"
You go to a city where there have been no Covid deaths for over a month. You randomly test 1000 people, and discover 20 that test positive for antibodies.

The media reports twenty new cases. Oh no! The pandemic has returned.
Quote:

"Cases, 2"
The capitol of a hypothetical state has a wild Covid infection, and a few deaths per day. The rest of the state has been quiet for weeks.

The governor is concerned, so they double the number of tests in the city. They find twice as many cases.

The media reports an 100% increase in Covid cases in the state!

Oh no! Time to re-institute the shut-down!

Quote:

"Cases, 3"
Things are calming down in a hypothetical state, because their epidemic is over. Now they have time to go back and review the vital records.
Each day they find cases and deaths that meet the newer CDC definitions and then report the new numbers. They have limited staff, and there is a huge pile of records to review, so they only can only report about the same number every day.
The media reports that the epidemic numbers are holding constant and not fading away. Guess we're gonna have to stay in lock-down for a couple more weeks.
By the way, each death also counts as another case as well...


Quote:

"Cases, 4"
The epidemic in a state is essentially over. But there is a breakout infection in a local prison. Hundreds of new asymptomatic cases are found.
Despite the fact that the epidemic is confined (literally), the numbers are included with the state numbers.

Quote:

"Cases, 5"
Reported cases are trending up, but the date-assigned cases data are trending down. Additionally date-assigned deaths are trending down.

It doesn't matter. The media reports that reported cases are increasing precipitously, and your friends think you are an idiot for contradicting the "experts."

The experts are the media?


Quote:

"Cases, N"
OK, I've tortured you enough... you get the point.
Cases numbers are the least reliable way to track the progress of the epidemic.
Period.
Reported cases numbers are barely useful even for clues.
Later, cases numbers will be useful for figuring out death rates and things, but that's only after everything is over with, and only when the testing protocols are clearly delineated for each of the results.
Phew! Glad I got that off my chest!

Quote:

"Cases, N+1"
OK. One more.
"We've set a new record for the number of cases in our state! We've exceeded ten thousand cases!!!!"
Of course you have. Every case you add sets a new cumulative record.
Oh, you forgot to mention that there was only one *new* case today.

Lastly we have Sweden which you all know did NOT close their schools or businesses.

Quote:

Deaths are tracking the new model... looks like Sweden is on the fade...

Notice that reported cases are NOT tracking the model any more. This happens often... obviously changing testing protocols or reporting.

So the media will now be screaming, "Cases are up! Cases are up!" But we know what's really going on. Don't be duped by the media.
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cavscout96
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bobinator said:

If families and stuff go to the media that's different, but at this point it's clear they aren't going to answer anything that isn't in the press release.

The city government media here is a pretty small group of people so I'm certain they're sharing everything they can.


Is this a serious post, or a really bad troll?
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated for June 13

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
MiMi
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S
Today's numbers:

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.14.20.pdf

22 new cases reported
Rapier108
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22 new cases
0 tests
0 deaths
16 in the hospital (-1 +1)

77801 +1
77802 +1
77803 +7
77807 +1
77808 +1
77840 +4
77845 +6
1 listed as "Unknown"

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
dubi
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Do we know what is going on in 77845? Nursing home?
Rapier108
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dubi said:

Do we know what is going on in 77845? Nursing home?
Doesn't look like it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
doubledog
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Today is June 13. 14 days ago it was memorial day.
Fitch
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AG
Give or take a week.
isitjustme
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doubledog said:

Today is June 13. 14 days ago it was memorial day.
June 14, and 20 days ago, but close enough.
AggieBaseball06
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doubledog said:

Today is June 13. 14 days ago it was memorial day.


Don't let facts get in the way of a good narrative.
EBrazosAg
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I nominate "active cases" as the most useless statistic. Since the HD admitted they aren't really following up on recovery, why even list it ? Maybe as a proxy of a running recent total... but then just do that and call it what it is.
KidDoc
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EBrazosAg said:

I nominate "active cases" as the most useless statistic. Since the HD admitted they aren't really following up on recovery, why even list it ? Maybe as a proxy of a running recent total... but then just do that and call it what it is.
I think active cases is the most important followed closely by hospitalizations. Even if they cannot reach a specific case for follow up, after 2 weeks from diagnosis they are either dead or recovered.

The total cases is worthless.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Rapier108
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Quote:

The total cases is worthless.
Given the fact many people only read headlines, or are incapable of reading more than 280 characters, "total cases" makes a lot of people think that is how many active cases there are.

And if you can answer, do you know if the child who went to TCH a few weeks ago is doing better?
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Oogway
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Would total cases (not active), give one a very rough idea of the area's potential immunity? It would be inaccurate due to the initial lack of widespread testing, but better than nothing.
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