B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

673,705 Views | 4711 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by Nosmo
Rapier108
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rodan85 said:

I have heard there are multiple instances that are coming from crowds at Northgate this past few weeks.

It takes just one sick person to show up in the crowds and cause a drastic increase.
Is there a bar in Northgate that is primarily Hispanic?

As of yesterday's numbers, the breakdown of cases doesn't bear that out.

When we see a spike in people under 30, and mostly white, then we could say it is from Northgate.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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agrab86 said:

Does anyone think that anyone who goes to stores, bars, church, quinceneras, barbecues, other parties, or even work or class doesn't know there is a risk of catching Covid-19? By now, everyone knows the risk, and they accept the risk simply by going to any of these places. Let people accept the risks as they see fit and protect themselves as they see fit.
The problem with that is we have groups who are so risk adverse and terrified that they want to impose their fear on everyone else in a misguided belief that it will make them safer. Then there are those with a political agenda for keeping people in fear, or things shut down.

On the former, those are the people who will lecture others in public about not wearing a mark, or even lose their mind over it. They've so terrified that this virus is going to be the end of human life, they are still living their life in full lock down, and only venture out if there is no other option. They are the embodiment of the "Karen" meme. On the latter, that's a discussion for F16.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Fitch
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AG
And then there's the faction that subvert or ridicule any discussion on the topic as fear mongering. It's almost like it was an election year.
rodan85
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AG
FlyRod
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Friends of mine in public health know this well; presentation of studies, models, data etc. are met with "You're just fear mongering!"' by folks who are still convinced this is just some peculiar form of the flu that only targets the old and obese.
isitjustme
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AG
Rapier108 said:

agrab86 said:

Does anyone think that anyone who goes to stores, bars, church, quinceneras, barbecues, other parties, or even work or class doesn't know there is a risk of catching Covid-19? By now, everyone knows the risk, and they accept the risk simply by going to any of these places. Let people accept the risks as they see fit and protect themselves as they see fit.
The problem with that is we have groups who are so risk adverse and terrified that they want to impose their fear on everyone else in a misguided belief that it will make them safer. Then there are those with a political agenda for keeping people in fear, or things shut down.

On the former, those are the people who will lecture others in public about not wearing a mark, or even lose their mind over it. They've so terrified that this virus is going to be the end of human life, they are still living their life in full lock down, and only venture out if there is no other option. They are the embodiment of the "Karen" meme. On the latter, that's a discussion for F16.
You are absolutely correct on identifying the problem. And I will continue to express an alternative point of view focusing on personal responsibility vs. the need for a nanny state. Thank you for sharing a very similar point of view.

BTW, I can handle the Karens as I don't really care what others say to me when I know I've got a good foundation for my viewpoint and behavior. The nanny state is the true problem.
FlyRod
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The true Karens are the ones complaining about being inconvenienced by a simple public health measure. The beauty of that word is it's elasticity and wide range of applicable contexts.
Rapier108
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11 new cases
0 deaths (glad I was wrong about another virus death, but sad someone did die the other day)
48 new tests
20 in the hospital (+5 -2)

77803 +8
77807 +1
77840 +1
77845 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.12.20_0.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
dubi
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AG
I'd like an age range breakdown of those hospitalized.
FlyRod
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^Great request. Wonder if the state is doing that kind of breakdown?
trouble
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AG
Me too but it won't happen. BCHD will claim it violates HIPAA.
benchmark
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I've heard of a COVID positive at Isle at Watercrest (from a friend with family there). That is all I know.
Fitch
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The state doesn't publish hospital demo's, nor does really anyone except the CDC. The national data exist, but local is basically anecdotal.
K2T2
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So we currently have the highest number of people hospitalized yet right now at 20?
trouble
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AG
Yes
trouble
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AG
An additional 45 added to the recovered total yesterday.
Rapier108
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benchmark said:

I've heard of a COVID positive at Isle at Watercrest (from a friend with family there). That is all I know.
From listening to Broadcastify, there have been at least three other nursing homes/retirement communities in the last 7-10 days where they've responded for people who are assumed positive cases (I take it that this means all the usual symptoms, but without a positive test) including the one case where the person passed way and they asked for a JP and "red body bag" which I had never heard before, but apparently means the body is a biohazard. In that case, dispatch told the responding EMS and Medic units that it was a confirmed positive case, which is why I assumed we'd see the death count go up by 1.

I won't say their names since I cannot confirm any positive cases at those locations and I have no hard evidence to back it up, but if you hadn't mentioned I@W, I would have said four locations instead of three. Listening to Broadcastify and using the responses for anything useful is not very exact. The only reason I figured out The Waterford was because they were so many calls, daily, all for people with severe virus symptoms. So far, except for The Waterford and to a lesser degree, P@T, none of the other nursing homes/retirement communities have had anything like that and hopefully it stays that way.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Oogway
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trouble said:

Me too but it won't happen. BCHD will claim it violates HIPAA.
In some sense, I could understand why they might claim that. While HIPAA restrictions can be lifted under a natural disaster, in the case of the BCS area the numbers are still small enough that they might have a reluctance to provide more info. For example, they currently provide zip code information, age ranges, gender, and ethnicity. When one combines that with info such as Rapier's scanner info and reading the obit columns people may begin to narrow individuals down bit by bit. IIRC, in the past the entity had to prove that harm had occurred but it was changed to prove that harm had not occurred. Note: I'm not accusing anyone of attempting to 'dox' individuals, but mostly arguing that unintended consequences could arise and BCHD is probably trying to avoid that and perhaps any liability related to that. If another county chooses to provide that information, perhaps they have consulted their counsel, have decided it's in the public's interest, or don't know enough to know the difference.

I tend to view it rather like the Texas education testing data that when aggregated across a district is broken down but occasionally when consulting specific campuses, certain categories cannot be shown because the sample size is very small and easily identifiable. We're not a borough in New York City with thousands in the hospital, so I guess I don't have a problem with it. Our service region has 22 COVID cases in total hospitalized (includes ctys outside of Brazos) and capacity does not seem to be an issue.

I'm washing my hands, wearing a mask if I'm inside a business/working for any length of time, and otherwise doing the usual things I would do to avoid spreading germs to others in our community. YMMV.

Thanks to those listening to the press conferences and also posting the data and info that is out there.
lockett93
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AG
Spreadsheet updated:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
Is Not a Turtle
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I did this the other day but not to this level of detail.

I made one addition that seemed logical to me. I created an estimate of recovered cases based on testing date.

I made a column to determine the date of 14 days before the current date, then added all of the cases up to the day before that date, subtracted the confirmed deaths, and then output that number as the estimated recovery number.

As we know they are not able to trace the positives and confirm recovery so we are probably better off trying to have some sort of estimate like this in the spreadsheet.

We can't be sure but, it's much better than the bogus number they have available in their data.

And it is bogus, whether they like it or not.
Rapier108
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lockett93 said:

Spreadsheet updated:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
Interesting that there is a travel case. Haven't seen that number go up forever.

I wonder where the person traveled. Will have to keep wondering because they won't say on Monday.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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60 new cases
44 new tests
1 new death
16 in the hospital (-6 +2)

77801 +9
77802 +7
77803 +12
77806 +1 (First case in this zip code)
77807 +2
77840 +10
77841 +1 (I wonder if this is supposed to be 77843 since that used to be listed with no cases, but has now disappeared. Guess we'll see if they release a revision later)
77845 +17
77868 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.13.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
jeffk
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AG
Wow. Those CS zip code numbers are surprising.
Rapier108
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jeffk said:

Wow. Those CS zip code numbers are surprising.
I'm thinking we might be seeing the protest spike starting.

Looks like a lot of cases in people under 30. Lots of cases among whites and blacks, but a pretty big drop in Hispanics.

The only thing that might say something else is that cluster related went up. Would they classify the protests as a "cluster"? I kind of doubt it so there might be something else like another nursing home also spiking the numbers.

Regardless, I'm sure our local leaders are being swamped as we speak with e-mails, social media comments, etc. with demands to lock the county down tighter than Scrooge McDuck's wallet.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
jeffk
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AG
That or the Northgate thing. Pretty hard to tell anything without any further info.
Rapier108
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jeffk said:

That or the Northgate thing. Pretty hard to tell anything without any further info.
That's possible as well.

Sadly, our local officials don't provide it, and the local media won't challenge them.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
bobinator
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From some anecdotal first hand evidence, I think Northgate is/will be much more to blame than protests.
Slocum on a mobile
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Cue the "sky is falling" posts....
bobinator
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Don't know how you expect the media to challenge them, ask louder?
Rapier108
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bobinator said:

Don't know how you expect the media to challenge them, ask louder?
Simple, ask some damn questions already other than ones which let Sullivan answer with his usual non-answers.

You can read back through this thread where many of us have posted very good questions to ask, some of us have even sent messages on social media to the news outlets, but nothing.

Remember when The Waterford had its outbreak? No one would ask why the sudden spike in cases in 77845, and the only way it came out was the families of people who were dying started going to the media and making it public. Only after it came to light did our local officials acknowledge what was happening.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
benchmark
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AG
Slocum on a mobile said:

Cue the "sky is falling" posts....
I know you will be shocked to learn your kind of post is just as annoying....
jeffk
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Cue the "Cue the sky is falling posts" posts.
FlyRod
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Very possible those younger cases are restaurant and bar staff, contracting it from unmasked customers.
bobinator
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AG
If families and stuff go to the media that's different, but at this point it's clear they aren't going to answer anything that isn't in the press release.

The city government media here is a pretty small group of people so I'm certain they're sharing everything they can.
Rapier108
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FlyRod said:

Very possible those younger cases are restaurant and bar staff, contracting it from unmasked customers.
Maybe, but have we heard of any local places shutting down for 1-2 days due to staff being sick so the place can be cleaned?
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
 
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