Ever since Doc put this thread up, I have had deep dives into info and folks I know there in Ingram, one that was a camper and then later a counselor. I have come to the conclusion that both sides have been posturing ever since the tragedy. Some of you talk about past and present legal battles and this is something luckily I have not been a part of. But many things being done right now are decisions being made by attorneys and not people involved. It's super difficult for everyone involved. I was told a few things that I refuse to post because I know it will upset many. It came from both sides of these two parties and was hard for me to believe. But after everything I have been reading and watching, it is falling into place as what I think they want the end result to be. Some of you I know have way more friends that are connected to this. And now I know why there has been no posts about them.
One guy on here said it best. And it has been repeated numerous times.

NO ONE WINS IN THIS BATTLE

John Cocktolstoy said:

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Ever since Doc put this thread up, I have had deep dives into info and folks I know there in Ingram, one that was a camper and then later a counselor. I have come to the conclusion that both sides have been posturing ever since the tragedy. Some of you talk about past and present legal battles and this is something luckily I have not been a part of. But many things being done right now are decisions being made by attorneys and not people involved. It's super difficult for everyone involved. I was told a few things that I refuse to post because I know it will upset many. It came from both sides of these two parties and was hard for me to believe. But after everything I have been reading and watching, it is falling into place as what I think they want the end result to be. Some of you I know have way more friends that are connected to this. And now I know why there has been no posts about them.
One guy on here said it best. And it has been repeated numerous times.

NO ONE WINS IN THIS BATTLE

---

Disagree. Safety of future campers and their families win. To me that is all that really matters. This should never happen again. I don't care what steps have to be taken. Even move the camp. Get new ownership. Admit there is a danger this can happen again and make sure it doesn't. I can't bring Mary Grace back and I don't care about money or vengeance on the Eastlands.

Will they though? We've already passed a law to increase safety standards. I understand you don't want the Eastlands in charge of Camp Mystic, and on that point, I agree. I would rather all the facts be laid out, and people can decide if they want to entrust the safety of their children with these people. There comes a point where you can't protect people from their own stupidity.

Doc that was going to happen without this legal battle.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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Doc that was going to happen without this legal battle.

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Disagree. I have sources too. Are you claiming the Eastlands were going to step down voluntarily? Because until they are gone, the lawsuits will continue.
And the camp has to admit this could happen again and move if necessary. I don't believe they have admitted this could happen again.

River Sentry has already installed warning systems around nearly all the camps in the area. https://riversentry.com/

I'm going to give an example that in now way is similar in loss, but is similar in preparedness.

Years back, we had a rain event up north of Waco and Hilsboro area. We had the lake coming up and I took off to go make sure the boat was lifted higher so prop was not in the water. I did all my checks of things tp prepare and headed back to CS. The next day my entire dock went under water, pump, cleaning station, you name it. Water went up into yard where I had never seen it. Top of dam is way lower than top of my dock. A wall of water came downstream and for 40 minutes we had super high water. It was a freak happening. Again, this is no comparison in loss but very much like what happened on the Guadalupe. It is hard to prepare for the things that are out of the realm of possibility. Is it possible? That will be a big question for everything now.

71 jock said:

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River Sentry has already installed warning systems around nearly all the camps in the area. https://riversentry.com/

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Hopefully on creek systems also.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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I'm going to give an example that in now way is similar in loss, but is similar in preparedness.

Years back, we had a rain event up north of Waco and Hilsboro area. We had the lake coming up and I took off to go make sure the boat was lifted higher so prop was not in the water. I did all my checks of things tp prepare and headed back to CS. The next day my entire dock went under water, pump, cleaning station, you name it. Water went up into yard where I had never seen it. Top of dam is way lower than top of my dock. A wall of water came downstream and for 40 minutes we had super high water. It was a freak happening. Again, this is no comparison in loss but very much like what happened on the Guadalupe. It is hard to prepare for the things that are out of the realm of possibility. Is it possible? That will be a big question for everything now.

---

These are kids under your care. You have to admit it could happen again and make changes so it won't result in deaths.

Doc, if you think Mystic would go on without changing anything you are arguing with yourself now.

Every camp is making huge changes.

The word being used by quite a few people in this is COMPLICIT.

I do not agree with that.

The changes coming to other camps are huge. I have been a part of the rebuild in Hunt. It is truly remarkable. With that said, I will not comment or have any knowledge about Mystic.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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I'm going to give an example that in now way is similar in loss, but is similar in preparedness.

Years back, we had a rain event up north of Waco and Hilsboro area. We had the lake coming up and I took off to go make sure the boat was lifted higher so prop was not in the water. I did all my checks of things tp prepare and headed back to CS. The next day my entire dock went under water, pump, cleaning station, you name it. Water went up into yard where I had never seen it. Top of dam is way lower than top of my dock. A wall of water came downstream and for 40 minutes we had super high water. It was a freak happening. Again, this is no comparison in loss but very much like what happened on the Guadalupe. It is hard to prepare for the things that are out of the realm of possibility. Is it possible? That will be a big question for everything now.

---

So you had a feeling water could possibly rise and you decided to move your valuables up higher while you had time?

Mystic had a feeling water was going to rise so they moved their valuables (kayaks) to higher ground as well when they had time. Except, all the children.

I moved things higher than what I needed to. Mother nature had other plans.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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oldarmy76 said:

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austinag1997 said:

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I think my issue are the actions to protect equipment (canoes etc.), prior to child safety. If the Eastlands believed water would rise high enough to float those, wouldn't the first order of business be to move the campers to higher ground first?

Canoes are easily replaceable.

I get the weather was crappy. Lightning. But somebody is outside moving equipment.

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Im guessing the canoes were kept along the river where a routine rainfall and river rise could wash them away. Not where a never seen before by anyone alive river rise would wash them away.
I don't think that is a great argument on caring for equipment more than kids.

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Yep, they were doing what they had done for years on that river. I have thought of many things I am used to doing when weather comes and have been surprised once on Limestone. Mother Nature can throw you a curveball that cannot be hit.

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Understood now.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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I moved things higher than what I needed to. Mother nature had other plans.

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thats my point. You at least attempted to move things to higher elevation. Mystic failed to even attempt to move all their valuables to higher ground while they had time.

Their is a stark difference between doing something and doing nothing.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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Doc, if you think Mystic would go on without changing anything you are arguing with yourself now.

Every camp is making huge changes.

The word being used by quite a few people in this is COMPLICIT.

I do not agree with that.

---

I alluded to the possibility of criminal charges and was laughed at. The Eastlands have to go no matter what Mystic has done or will do. Hate to say that but it is a reality.

You and I can disagree on the complicit allegation. That is up to the DA's office and the prosecutor. The Texas Rangers were called in because of the possibility of criminal charges. It will ultimately depend on the grand jury.

The girls were moved to higher ground when they went to bed in the cabins. For basically every storm and flood before, this was high enough. This is not true for the canoes which is probably why they were moved. The fact that the canoes were moved doesn't move the needle on whether the girls should have been moved.

I only moved things I thought could get damaged. Your twisting it into something else. I have structures in place that never go under. The dam is way lower than these structures. MOTHER NATURE PROVED OTHERWISE.

The canoe argument is ridiculous...we're not in Houston folks.

River elevation: 1820 ft
Canoes: just off the river, say 1825 ft
Highest height of the water that day: 1858 ft

AustinCountyAg said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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I moved things higher than what I needed to. Mother nature had other plans.

---

thats my point. You at least attempted to move things to higher elevation. Mystic failed to even attempt to move all their valuables to higher ground while they had time.

Their is a stark difference between doing something and doing nothing.

---

This goes back to what little plan they had. Their plan assumed (wrongly) that the cabins where kids were left to shelter in place were safe because they were above the 100 yr flood plain. Anybody who understands flood plain management knows that is a faulty assumption, but it is what it is. Should the Eastlands have had a better understanding based on where their camp was located? Yes. Did they? Apparently not.

So their "plan" assumed that the cabins above the flood plain were "safe" so there was no need to move anybody out of them. The canoes and water sports equipment was not safe where they were so they moved them. The campers in the cabins below the flood plain were moved to the dining hall.

We can argue all day about why their plan was so meager, how it was flawed, how they failed to provide the communications capabilities included in the plan, etc. But I think it is pretty low to try to make the stretch that moving canoes up off the water while leaving kids in cabins that were believed to be safe implies that the people involved valued the canoes more than the kids. Their safety plan said those cabins were safe high ground and the kids were to stay there. So not moving them wasn't a sign that they didn't care about them, it was a sign that they were trying to follow what little plan they had. There is a difference between not caring about the well being of the kids at all and having a flawed plan to care for their well being. Mystic had a flawed plan and didn't have critical pieces of it that were needed (communications capability to each cabin), but moving the canoes first is not evidence that they didn't care about the well being of the kids.

I am in no way an Eastland apologist and don't want them to run the camp in the future. But if Dick Eastland didn't care about the well being of those kids, he would be alive today having sat up on the hill watching them get washed away. Instead, he died putting himself into harm's way trying to save the ones he could. That doesn't make him a "hero" given that he was responsible for their situation in the first place, but I think it should make people hesitate before questioning his level of commitment to or care about the safety of the campers.

They didn't value the equipment more than the kids. They had equipment lost inn prior floods so they did what any normal person would do, adjust and make a change. This was a catastrophic event that no one, not weathermen, anyone of importance in the science of flooding, thought could happen.

I moved my pump 3ft up in the pumphouse. Had power shut off, but surprised electrical is not damaged since outlets went under also.

I look forward to hearing the testimony of some meteorologists and seeing some hard data / statistics on this event. I expect it to be enlightening.

Quote:

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This was a catastrophic event that no one, not weathermen, anyone of importance in the science of flooding, thought could happen.

---

Why do people keep saying this? It is so easily falsifiable through a cursory google search. Weather experts and "people of importance in science", whatever that standard, have been saying the exact opposite.

https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/history-warned-of-the-central-texas-guadalupe-river-flood/

Quote:

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Texas hydrologists working with the National Weather Service say they recognized the conditions last Thursday that could lead to catastrophic flooding on the Guadalupe River.

And they say, based on past events, this kind of outcome was a known risk.

"On Thursday, we made the call: yeah, this is going to be an event," said Jason Johnson, a lead hydrologist at the West Gulf River Forecast Center in Fort Worth. "The hardest part is pinpointing where that rainfall is going to occur."

The Fort Worth team monitors rivers across the western Gulf, including the Guadalupe.
In what experts call "Flash Flood Alley," the terrain reacts quickly to rainfall. Steep slopes, rocky ground, and narrow riverbeds leave little time for warning.

"It's known as 'Flash Flood Alley' ... it responds very fast," Johnson said.

The I-Team reviewed National Weather Service and historical crest records and found that the Guadalupe River has experienced major flooding more than a dozen times in the last century.
On July 4, preliminary data shows the Guadalupe River at Hunt reached 37.52 feet.

The I-Team has learned the river in that area has been even higher four other times since tracking began, and it's reached more than 25 feet on 15 other occasions.
These events include deadly flash floods that have taken lives, inundated homes, and overwhelmed campsites.

Hydrologists say the signs were there. In 1987, floodwaters rose to 31 feet in Comfort. Ten people died including children after camp buses were caught in the rising current.

Similar deadly floods happened again in 2015. In 1869, the Guadalupe crested to above 40 feet.
"Each event is different," Johnson said. "But they can all have the same consequences. You can't say this was worse than another because it impacted someone."

---

txags92 said:

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AustinCountyAg said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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I moved things higher than what I needed to. Mother nature had other plans.

---

thats my point. You at least attempted to move things to higher elevation. Mystic failed to even attempt to move all their valuables to higher ground while they had time.

Their is a stark difference between doing something and doing nothing.

---

This goes back to what little plan they had. Their plan assumed (wrongly) that the cabins where kids were left to shelter in place were safe because they were above the 100 yr flood plain. Anybody who understands flood plain management knows that is a faulty assumption, but it is what it is. Should the Eastlands have had a better understanding based on where their camp was located? Yes. Did they? Apparently not.

So their "plan" assumed that the cabins above the flood plain were "safe" so there was no need to move anybody out of them. The canoes and water sports equipment was not safe where they were so they moved them. The campers in the cabins below the flood plain were moved to the dining hall.

We can argue all day about why their plan was so meager, how it was flawed, how they failed to provide the communications capabilities included in the plan, etc. But I think it is pretty low to try to make the stretch that moving canoes up off the water while leaving kids in cabins that were believed to be safe implies that the people involved valued the canoes more than the kids. Their safety plan said those cabins were safe high ground and the kids were to stay there. So not moving them wasn't a sign that they didn't care about them, it was a sign that they were trying to follow what little plan they had. There is a difference between not caring about the well being of the kids at all and having a flawed plan to care for their well being. Mystic had a flawed plan and didn't have critical pieces of it that were needed (communications capability to each cabin), but moving the canoes first is not evidence that they didn't care about the well being of the kids.

I am in no way an Eastland apologist and don't want them to run the camp in the future. But if Dick Eastland didn't care about the well being of those kids, he would be alive today having sat up on the hill watching them get washed away. Instead, he died putting himself into harm's way trying to save the ones he could. That doesn't make him a "hero" given that he was responsible for their situation in the first place, but I think it should make people hesitate before questioning his level of commitment to or care about the safety of the campers.

---

my point has nothing to do with canoes being more valuable than the kids. That is a ridiculous argument.

What I am saying is if they had time to move the canoes they should've spent that time instead moving ALL campers to higher ground, as highest as possible first. Flood plain or not. That should be irrelevant in a flooding situation. Children are the most valuable thing we have. When receiving a flood warning when you are located next to a river responsible for hundreds of girls they should've took the most responsible action they could've and be overly cautious. At minimum they could've at least went to all cabins to provide them with phones, walkie talkies, etc as away to communicate in an emergency situation.

Having a river break flood record heights happens every year throughout the entire world. It isn't a new phenomenon. IMO it is better to do too much than do too little. Causing an inconvenince for one night and be too cautious isn't that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things when we are talking weather related deadly scenarios.

Quote:

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This was a catastrophic event that no one, not weathermen, anyone of importance in the science of flooding, thought could happen.

---

Another good read on this being very wrong.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/07/texas-flood-forecasts-accuracy-lives-lost-00441068

Quote:

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Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county's top elected official, said at a press conference Friday that "we didn't know this kind of flood was coming." Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd suggested at a separate press conference that NWS forecasts fell short in advance of the floods.

Experts say that isn't true.

"There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods but that's simply not true," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA in a lengthy Bluesky thread

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dermdoc said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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Doc, if you think Mystic would go on without changing anything you are arguing with yourself now.

Every camp is making huge changes.

The word being used by quite a few people in this is COMPLICIT.

I do not agree with that.

---

I alluded to the possibility of criminal charges and was laughed at. The Eastlands have to go no matter what Mystic has done or will do. Hate to say that but it is a reality.

You and I can disagree on the complicit allegation. That is up to the DA's office and the prosecutor. The Texas Rangers were called in because of the possibility of criminal charges. It will ultimately depend on the grand jury.

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My question....would that be a Kerr County grand jury or a Travis County grand jury. I would think that fact alone would make a huge difference in the potential for criminal charges.

Alta said:

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The end result of the lawsuits is there will be no more camps along the Guadalupe River. Might not happen tomorrow or in 5 years but camping in that area is not going to be available to our grandkids. I know others disagree but I find that unfortunate.

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That's the only way to make sure no kids ever die at summer camps on the Guadalupe River again. Close them all.

That's not what the goal should be. We shouldn't go through life seeking 0 risk. That's not living. This may sound insensitive, but sometimes bad things happen.

How many kids die in car wrecks every year? Should we all stop driving cars? How many kids drown in swimming pools every year? Should we drain and fill in all the pools?

Windy City Ag said:

---

Quote:

---

This was a catastrophic event that no one, not weathermen, anyone of importance in the science of flooding, thought could happen.

---

Why do people keep saying this? It is so easily falsifiable through a cursory google search. Weather experts and "people of importance in science", whatever that standard, have been saying the exact opposite.

https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/history-warned-of-the-central-texas-guadalupe-river-flood/

Quote:

---

Texas hydrologists working with the National Weather Service say they recognized the conditions last Thursday that could lead to catastrophic flooding on the Guadalupe River.

And they say, based on past events, this kind of outcome was a known risk.

"On Thursday, we made the call: yeah, this is going to be an event," said Jason Johnson, a lead hydrologist at the West Gulf River Forecast Center in Fort Worth. "The hardest part is pinpointing where that rainfall is going to occur."

The Fort Worth team monitors rivers across the western Gulf, including the Guadalupe.
In what experts call "Flash Flood Alley," the terrain reacts quickly to rainfall. Steep slopes, rocky ground, and narrow riverbeds leave little time for warning.

"It's known as 'Flash Flood Alley' ... it responds very fast," Johnson said.

The I-Team reviewed National Weather Service and historical crest records and found that the Guadalupe River has experienced major flooding more than a dozen times in the last century.
On July 4, preliminary data shows the Guadalupe River at Hunt reached 37.52 feet.

The I-Team has learned the river in that area has been even higher four other times since tracking began, and it's reached more than 25 feet on 15 other occasions.
These events include deadly flash floods that have taken lives, inundated homes, and overwhelmed campsites.

Hydrologists say the signs were there. In 1987, floodwaters rose to 31 feet in Comfort. Ten people died including children after camp buses were caught in the rising current.

Similar deadly floods happened again in 2015. In 1869, the Guadalupe crested to above 40 feet.
"Each event is different," Johnson said. "But they can all have the same consequences. You can't say this was worse than another because it impacted someone."

---

---

Yep. The facts are there. As is the timeline. That are two of the reasons the Texas Rangers were called in.

You are absolutely right Marvin. But this jury is going to be gone over by both sides pretty hard. I don't think they allow it in Kerr.

So if they had moved the girls to the higher ground of the dining hall and that got washed away, would you be arguing they should have gone higher? What would have been high enough for you to say they did all they could reasonably do? If they moved the girls, no cabins got flooded, but a tree fell and killed someone during the evacuation, would you be arguing they shouldn't have evacuated?

AustinCountyAg said:

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txags92 said:

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AustinCountyAg said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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I moved things higher than what I needed to. Mother nature had other plans.

---

thats my point. You at least attempted to move things to higher elevation. Mystic failed to even attempt to move all their valuables to higher ground while they had time.

Their is a stark difference between doing something and doing nothing.

---

This goes back to what little plan they had. Their plan assumed (wrongly) that the cabins where kids were left to shelter in place were safe because they were above the 100 yr flood plain. Anybody who understands flood plain management knows that is a faulty assumption, but it is what it is. Should the Eastlands have had a better understanding based on where their camp was located? Yes. Did they? Apparently not.

So their "plan" assumed that the cabins above the flood plain were "safe" so there was no need to move anybody out of them. The canoes and water sports equipment was not safe where they were so they moved them. The campers in the cabins below the flood plain were moved to the dining hall.

We can argue all day about why their plan was so meager, how it was flawed, how they failed to provide the communications capabilities included in the plan, etc. But I think it is pretty low to try to make the stretch that moving canoes up off the water while leaving kids in cabins that were believed to be safe implies that the people involved valued the canoes more than the kids. Their safety plan said those cabins were safe high ground and the kids were to stay there. So not moving them wasn't a sign that they didn't care about them, it was a sign that they were trying to follow what little plan they had. There is a difference between not caring about the well being of the kids at all and having a flawed plan to care for their well being. Mystic had a flawed plan and didn't have critical pieces of it that were needed (communications capability to each cabin), but moving the canoes first is not evidence that they didn't care about the well being of the kids.

I am in no way an Eastland apologist and don't want them to run the camp in the future. But if Dick Eastland didn't care about the well being of those kids, he would be alive today having sat up on the hill watching them get washed away. Instead, he died putting himself into harm's way trying to save the ones he could. That doesn't make him a "hero" given that he was responsible for their situation in the first place, but I think it should make people hesitate before questioning his level of commitment to or care about the safety of the campers.

---

my point has nothing to do with canoes being more valuable than the kids. That is a ridiculous argument.

What I am saying is if they had time to move the canoes they should've spent that time instead moving ALL campers to higher ground, as highest as possible first. Flood plain or not. That should be irrelevant in a flooding situation. Children are the most valuable thing we have. When receiving a flood warning when you are located next to a river responsible for hundreds of girls they should've took the most responsible action they could've and be overly cautious. At minimum they could've at least went to all cabins to provide them with phones, walkie talkies, etc as away to communicate in an emergency situation.

Having a river break flood record heights happens every year throughout the entire world. It isn't a new phenomenon. IMO it is better to do too much than do too little. Causing an inconvenince for one night and be too cautious isn't that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things when we are talking weather related deadly scenarios.

---

How high is high enough? And how can you know that for sure in the middle of the event? And how do you balance the risk of moving them in the middle of a storm?

AustinCountyAg said:

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txags92 said:

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AustinCountyAg said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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I moved things higher than what I needed to. Mother nature had other plans.

---

thats my point. You at least attempted to move things to higher elevation. Mystic failed to even attempt to move all their valuables to higher ground while they had time.

Their is a stark difference between doing something and doing nothing.

---

This goes back to what little plan they had. Their plan assumed (wrongly) that the cabins where kids were left to shelter in place were safe because they were above the 100 yr flood plain. Anybody who understands flood plain management knows that is a faulty assumption, but it is what it is. Should the Eastlands have had a better understanding based on where their camp was located? Yes. Did they? Apparently not.

So their "plan" assumed that the cabins above the flood plain were "safe" so there was no need to move anybody out of them. The canoes and water sports equipment was not safe where they were so they moved them. The campers in the cabins below the flood plain were moved to the dining hall.

We can argue all day about why their plan was so meager, how it was flawed, how they failed to provide the communications capabilities included in the plan, etc. But I think it is pretty low to try to make the stretch that moving canoes up off the water while leaving kids in cabins that were believed to be safe implies that the people involved valued the canoes more than the kids. Their safety plan said those cabins were safe high ground and the kids were to stay there. So not moving them wasn't a sign that they didn't care about them, it was a sign that they were trying to follow what little plan they had. There is a difference between not caring about the well being of the kids at all and having a flawed plan to care for their well being. Mystic had a flawed plan and didn't have critical pieces of it that were needed (communications capability to each cabin), but moving the canoes first is not evidence that they didn't care about the well being of the kids.

I am in no way an Eastland apologist and don't want them to run the camp in the future. But if Dick Eastland didn't care about the well being of those kids, he would be alive today having sat up on the hill watching them get washed away. Instead, he died putting himself into harm's way trying to save the ones he could. That doesn't make him a "hero" given that he was responsible for their situation in the first place, but I think it should make people hesitate before questioning his level of commitment to or care about the safety of the campers.

---

my point has nothing to do with canoes being more valuable than the kids. That is a ridiculous argument.

What I am saying is if they had time to move the canoes they should've spent that time instead moving ALL campers to higher ground, as highest as possible first. Flood plain or not. That should be irrelevant in a flooding situation. Children are the most valuable thing we have. When receiving a flood warning when you are located next to a river responsible for hundreds of girls they should've took the most responsible action they could've and be overly cautious. At minimum they could've at least went to all cabins to provide them with phones, walkie talkies, etc as away to communicate in an emergency situation.

Having a river break flood record heights happens every year throughout the entire world. It isn't a new phenomenon. IMO it is better to do too much than do too little. Causing an inconvenince for one night and be too cautious isn't that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things when we are talking weather related deadly scenarios.

---

And what I am saying is that according to their (flawed) plan, the cabins the girls were left in WERE high ground. They thought (wrongly) that being out of the 100 year flood meant those cabins would not flood. We all agree in hindsight that the girls should not have been left there, but to imply that the kids were not valued because they were left there is wrong. Moving hundreds of pre-teen campers to a different location in the middle of a violent lightning storm in the dark of night has its own set of hazards and was not something that had ever been contemplated, planned for, or practiced prior to that night. You and I agree on what would have been best for them to do, but they had other deficiencies (such as lack of functional communications methods) that made it nearly impossible to accomplish safely once they realized it was necessary, as evidenced by Dick dying while trying to move a group of campers.

What bothers me the most is that nobody ever took a look at that plan before that night and told the Eastlands "This isn't good enough". If they did, I have never heard about it. But somebody out of the probably thousands of people who saw it before now should have looked at where those cabins were, what the barriers to safe evacuation would be in a catastrophic flood situation, and what kinds of practices were used at other camps and told them they needed a better plan than just "Stay there until we tell you otherwise". That doesn't excuse the Eastlands of the fact that they should have known that for themselves, but it bothers me that nobody else was after them about it either.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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You are absolutely right Marvin. But this jury is going to be gone over by both sides pretty hard. I don't think they allow it in Kerr.

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Agree.

Marvin_Zindler said:

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dermdoc said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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Doc, if you think Mystic would go on without changing anything you are arguing with yourself now.

Every camp is making huge changes.

The word being used by quite a few people in this is COMPLICIT.

I do not agree with that.

---

I alluded to the possibility of criminal charges and was laughed at. The Eastlands have to go no matter what Mystic has done or will do. Hate to say that but it is a reality.

You and I can disagree on the complicit allegation. That is up to the DA's office and the prosecutor. The Texas Rangers were called in because of the possibility of criminal charges. It will ultimately depend on the grand jury.

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My question....would that be a Kerr County grand jury or a Travis County grand jury. I would think that fact alone would make a huge difference in the potential for criminal charges.

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I'm not an attorney...but I believe it would be the 216th DA either making charges or not and a grand jury in that district would be the checkpoint. 216th is Kerr and Gillespie counties...not Travis.

Ogre09 said:

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AustinCountyAg said:

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txags92 said:

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AustinCountyAg said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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I moved things higher than what I needed to. Mother nature had other plans.

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thats my point. You at least attempted to move things to higher elevation. Mystic failed to even attempt to move all their valuables to higher ground while they had time.

Their is a stark difference between doing something and doing nothing.

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This goes back to what little plan they had. Their plan assumed (wrongly) that the cabins where kids were left to shelter in place were safe because they were above the 100 yr flood plain. Anybody who understands flood plain management knows that is a faulty assumption, but it is what it is. Should the Eastlands have had a better understanding based on where their camp was located? Yes. Did they? Apparently not.

So their "plan" assumed that the cabins above the flood plain were "safe" so there was no need to move anybody out of them. The canoes and water sports equipment was not safe where they were so they moved them. The campers in the cabins below the flood plain were moved to the dining hall.

We can argue all day about why their plan was so meager, how it was flawed, how they failed to provide the communications capabilities included in the plan, etc. But I think it is pretty low to try to make the stretch that moving canoes up off the water while leaving kids in cabins that were believed to be safe implies that the people involved valued the canoes more than the kids. Their safety plan said those cabins were safe high ground and the kids were to stay there. So not moving them wasn't a sign that they didn't care about them, it was a sign that they were trying to follow what little plan they had. There is a difference between not caring about the well being of the kids at all and having a flawed plan to care for their well being. Mystic had a flawed plan and didn't have critical pieces of it that were needed (communications capability to each cabin), but moving the canoes first is not evidence that they didn't care about the well being of the kids.

I am in no way an Eastland apologist and don't want them to run the camp in the future. But if Dick Eastland didn't care about the well being of those kids, he would be alive today having sat up on the hill watching them get washed away. Instead, he died putting himself into harm's way trying to save the ones he could. That doesn't make him a "hero" given that he was responsible for their situation in the first place, but I think it should make people hesitate before questioning his level of commitment to or care about the safety of the campers.

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my point has nothing to do with canoes being more valuable than the kids. That is a ridiculous argument.

What I am saying is if they had time to move the canoes they should've spent that time instead moving ALL campers to higher ground, as highest as possible first. Flood plain or not. That should be irrelevant in a flooding situation. Children are the most valuable thing we have. When receiving a flood warning when you are located next to a river responsible for hundreds of girls they should've took the most responsible action they could've and be overly cautious. At minimum they could've at least went to all cabins to provide them with phones, walkie talkies, etc as away to communicate in an emergency situation.

Having a river break flood record heights happens every year throughout the entire world. It isn't a new phenomenon. IMO it is better to do too much than do too little. Causing an inconvenince for one night and be too cautious isn't that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things when we are talking weather related deadly scenarios.

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How high is high enough? And how can you know that for sure in the middle of the event? And how do you balance the risk of moving them in the middle of a storm?

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considering they were moving girls up until the first last second possible that argument is moot. "high enough" is the highest possible structures on location. And you don't have to move them in the middle of the event. You move them when you receive flood warnings. Which they got.

And if the floods still reach them at the highest point on site, well guess what you at least have solace in knowing they moved all kids to the highest point possible and did all they could do.