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767 crash in upper Trinity Bay

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aggiepublius
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In reply to cbr • 4:10p, 3/1/19
AG
cbr said:
Dead hand
Atomic adventures
Command and control

All pretty interesting reads on the subject.

We and the soviets also each had software failures indicate full MAD lauches, that individual soldiers (not even really authorized to make the call) just decided to not launch retaliatory strikes. Like colonel level types on watch.

And of course, outside the cuban missile crisis, the soviets actually thought able archer in 83 was us preparing to preemptively strike and invade europe, rather than an excercise. They actually thought that we might launch a pershing strike on moscow and theyd only have 4-6 minutes to react (we couldnt actually reach moscow with them). Many think this was actually more dangerous than the cuban crisis.

If you really want insomnia, this will help:

Able Archer 83 was downright scary, especially since US/NATO didn't realize what effects their exercise was having on the Soviet Command and Control.

It wasn't until there were some high level Soviet defectors that explained how things had gone down, notably KGB general Oleg Gordievsky . More came out in the 90's when KGB Archivist Mitroykin defected to Brits with boxes of files made a lot of people run to the head.


http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20181108-the-wargame-that-could-have-ended-the-world
[url=http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20181108-the-wargame-that-could-have-ended-the-world][/url]
https://www.vox.com/2018/9/26/17905796/nuclear-war-1983-stanislav-petrov-soviet-union


And there was also a the Soviet officer that refused to agree to launch a nuclear torpedo during the Cuban Missile Crisis when we started dropping some depth charges.

Quote:
Trapped in the sweltering submarine the air-conditioning was no longer working the crew feared death. But, unknown to the US forces, they had a special weapon in their arsenal: a ten kilotonne nuclear torpedo. What's more, the officers had permission to launch it without waiting for approval from Moscow.

Two of the vessel's senior officers including the captain, Valentin Savitsky wanted to launch the missile. According to a report from the US National Security Archive, Savitsky exclaimed: "We're gonna blast them now! We will die, but we will sink them all we will not become the shame of the fleet."

But there was an important caveat: all three senior officers on board had to agree to deploy the weapon. As a result, the situation in the control room played out very differently. Arkhipov refused to sanction the launch of the weapon and calmed the captain down. The torpedo was never fired.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/27/vasili-arkhipov-soviet-submarine-captain-who-averted-nuclear-war-awarded-future-of-life-prize

Other scary stuff on "Broken Arrows" (lost or downed nukes) -

Interview with Jack ReVelle, who had to recover the 2 H-Bombs that fell over Goldsboro, NC
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/25/688223286/8-days-2-h-bombs-and-1-team-that-stopped-a-catastrophe
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswsfc

There is also a great documentary the Titan II silo explosion in Damascus, Arkansas that had 9 megaton W-63 warhead. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/command-and-control/




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aggiepublius
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In reply to [removed post] • 4:17p, 3/1/19
AG
FAT SEXY said:
Now that the black box has been discovered, how long do you guys think it will take for more information about what happened to come out?


It depends on what kind of shape it is in. They found the Cockpit Voice Recorder, so that may give them some indication of what was going on in a general sense. They have sent it to DC to NTSB HQ for analysis.
I would expect to hear at least something of what they were able to hear or not hear next week if it was relatively undamaged.

https://abc13.com/black-box-recovered-from-cargo-plane-crash-in-trinity-bay/5163154/
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cbr
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In reply to CanyonAg77 • 4:22p, 3/1/19
AG
CanyonAg77 said:
Obviously, none of the nukes had all of their failsafes fail. Because there has not been an accidental nuclear detonation

The old weapons, several accidents did set off the conventional explosives, but not in a way that would go nuclear. Fire would not have done it either. Newer weapons use insensitive high explosives.

The Arkansas missile explosion was due to a dropped wrench hitting a liquid fuel tank and boom. The warhead is often referred to as "The Arkansas Traveler".
In several cases all of the designed failsafes failed, yet the fire or drop or chemical explosion failed to create the conditions for an atomic explosion. I am no expert, but iirc most all american nukes after fat man require the uranium bullet to fire into the core at tremendous velocity and precision, far beyond normal kinetic or unintended chemical impacts. In fact most kinetic or chemical events cant even drive the bullet in at all.

I dont recall the exact diagnoses, but i specifically remember that the south dakota event was such that the fire would have resulted in a full power nuclear event, but for wind direction away from the bomb, and that several accidents did in fact get past all designed failsafes and the lack of detonation was just luck.

The 'arkansas traveler' was an interesting occurrence. The fuel for titans is really really bad mojo. Toxic beyond belief and if atmospheric concentrations get high enough it can go boom without any mechanical or flame event.

They had a leak starting, a guy in a suit went in but accidentally dropped a big ass wrench which fell and punctured one of the fuel tanks. The sequence of problem solving over the next day or so was fascinating, before it finally went boom. Killed a couple of people and hurt some more iirc.
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aggiepublius
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In reply to cbr • 4:47p, 3/1/19
AG
cbr said:
CanyonAg77 said:
Obviously, none of the nukes had all of their failsafes fail. Because there has not been an accidental nuclear detonation

The old weapons, several accidents did set off the conventional explosives, but not in a way that would go nuclear. Fire would not have done it either. Newer weapons use insensitive high explosives.

The Arkansas missile explosion was due to a dropped wrench hitting a liquid fuel tank and boom. The warhead is often referred to as "The Arkansas Traveler".
In several cases all of the designed failsafes failed, yet the fire or drop or chemical explosion failed to create the conditions for an atomic explosion. I am no expert, but iirc most all american nukes after fat man require the uranium bullet to fire into the core at tremendous velocity and precision, far beyond normal kinetic or unintended chemical impacts. In fact most kinetic or chemical events cant even drive the bullet in at all.

(cbr = "chemical, biological, radiological"?)

What you have there is partially correct. Only Little Boy used the uranium "gun design" which was so simple in design and engineering, they didn't even test it before it was dropped on Hiroshima. Trinity and Fat Man and the later designs were the more complicated implosion devices that require great precision.

Most of the later designs are implosion devices that crush a sphere of fissile material into a core that requires extreme precision in the chemical explosives that are shaped to crush the sphere to get ensure criticality. The timing and precision of was new that units of time were created to measure it, including the "shake" that was named after "two shakes of a lambs tail. The precision was such the electrical switches that were used to initiate the chemical explosion were so specialized they were tracked and were a important tip off someone new was trying to join the nuclear club.

The next big jump was with thermonuclear or H-Bombs, which use a fission device initiator - a simple nuclear bomb - to start a fusion reaction among Hydrogen isotopes* that releases magnitudes greater of energy. These are even higher precision in timing.

There are then even more exotic forms - Neutron bombs (which release more energetic particles that damage biological material but leave the city behind), Jacketed bombs - using elements like Cobalt that salt the earth and leaved the ground poisoned for much longer periods. Some of these are/were Fission-Fusion-Fission devices that have massive yields in the 100Mt theoretical range.

I believe the US main warhead in inventory is a "dial-a-yield" that allows the warhead to be varied based on target. And that is much more complicated in engineering and still largely classified as far as I know.

*TLDR - Nukes are complicated. And the OB has the key component of an H-bomb in their gun safes and holsters, Tritium.

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cbr
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In reply to aggiepublius • 5:18p, 3/1/19
AG
aggiepublius said:
cbr said:
CanyonAg77 said:
Obviously, none of the nukes had all of their failsafes fail. Because there has not been an accidental nuclear detonation

The old weapons, several accidents did set off the conventional explosives, but not in a way that would go nuclear. Fire would not have done it either. Newer weapons use insensitive high explosives.

The Arkansas missile explosion was due to a dropped wrench hitting a liquid fuel tank and boom. The warhead is often referred to as "The Arkansas Traveler".
In several cases all of the designed failsafes failed, yet the fire or drop or chemical explosion failed to create the conditions for an atomic explosion. I am no expert, but iirc most all american nukes after fat man require the uranium bullet to fire into the core at tremendous velocity and precision, far beyond normal kinetic or unintended chemical impacts. In fact most kinetic or chemical events cant even drive the bullet in at all.

(cbr = "chemical, biological, radiological"?)

What you have there is partially correct. Only Little Boy used the uranium "gun design" which was so simple in design and engineering, they didn't even test it before it was dropped on Hiroshima. Trinity and Fat Man and the later designs were the more complicated implosion devices that require great precision.

Most of the later designs are implosion devices that crush a sphere of fissile material into a core that requires extreme precision in the chemical explosives that are shaped to crush the sphere to get ensure criticality. The timing and precision of was new that units of time were created to measure it, including the "shake" that was named after "two shakes of a lambs tail. The precision was such the electrical switches that were used to initiate the chemical explosion were so specialized they were tracked and were a important tip off someone new was trying to join the nuclear club.

The next big jump was with thermonuclear or H-Bombs, which use a fission device initiator - a simple nuclear bomb - to start a fusion reaction among Hydrogen isotopes* that releases magnitudes greater of energy. These are even higher precision in timing.

There are then even more exotic forms - Neutron bombs (which release more energetic particles that damage biological material but leave the city behind), Jacketed bombs - using elements like Cobalt that salt the earth and leaved the ground poisoned for much longer periods. Some of these are/were Fission-Fusion-Fission devices that have massive yields in the 100Mt theoretical range.

I believe the US main warhead in inventory is a "dial-a-yield" that allows the warhead to be varied based on target. And that is much more complicated in engineering and still largely classified as far as I know.

*TLDR - Nukes are complicated. And the OB has the key component of an H-bomb in their gun safes and holsters, Tritium.

Lol, interesting side discussion!

So i thought i recalled that fat man was the implosion plutonium weapon requiring all the complex implosion explosives, (thus its large diameter) and that little boy and subsequent designs were uranium gun design... with advances in technology getting smaller and smaller cores for the yield necessary to trigger hydrogen fusion. I'll look back at it.
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5:40p, 3/1/19
Burnsey
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6:03p, 3/1/19
AG
Was their an atomic bomb on this 767?
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CanyonAg77
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In reply to cbr • 6:06p, 3/1/19
AG
I think you're pretty much backwards, as in no current nuclear weapons are "Little Boy" types.
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cbr
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In reply to CanyonAg77 • 6:12p, 3/1/19
AG
CanyonAg77 said:
I think you're pretty much backwards, as in no current nuclear weapons are "Littke Boy" types.
Yep - i had recalled fat man was first but that was wrong. Its been a while since i read up on that. Modern nukes use both uranium and plutonium for primary and secondary. Both implosion.
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Front Range Ag
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In reply to [removed post] • 6:19p, 3/1/19
AG
I don't know how long it takes the CVR to be analyzed or long long afterwards before the NTSB would divulge what was found. A lot would depend on what the pilots verbally said or what other sounds there were - that's all the CVR tells you.

The other box would disclose pilots actions, flight data, and a few other clues.
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aggiepublius
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In reply to Burnsey • 6:22p, 3/1/19
AG
Nah but this thread has become quite wide ranging since started it to ask if anyone here hunted or fished this section of the bay.
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Mowdy Ag
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7:12p, 3/1/19
CanyonAg77
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In reply to cbr • 9:24p, 3/1/19
AG
Quote:
Yep - i had recalled fat man was first but that was wrong
The Trinity test was the first atomic explosion, and it was an implosion device. Maybe that's what mixed you up.
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hbc07
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 9:37p, 3/1/19
AG
Stat Monitor Repairman said:
Plausible.

Yet how much crazy ****has to happen for it just to run out of fuel. But the simplicity of it. It might just be the case.who knows. Maybe Amazon was testing some new AI **** on it. Who the **** knows really.

Of all the ****weve seen lately.

****
Even if they ran out of gas, the plane wouldn't automatically become a lawn dart. They would have been able to glide 15 or so miles.
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redag06
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In reply to Burnsey • 10:07p, 3/1/19
Burnsey said:
Was their an atomic bomb on this 767?


Amazon does sell everything from A to Z.
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CanyonAg77
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In reply to hbc07 • 10:32p, 3/1/19
AG
Quote:
Even if they ran out of gas, the plane wouldn't automatically become a lawn dart. They would have been able to glide 15 or so miles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimli_Glider
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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In reply to hbc07 • 4:57a, 3/2/19
hbc07 said:
Stat Monitor Repairman said:
Plausible.

Yet how much crazy ****has to happen for it just to run out of fuel. But the simplicity of it. It might just be the case.who knows. Maybe Amazon was testing some new AI **** on it. Who the **** knows really.

Of all the ****weve seen lately.

****
Even if they ran out of gas, the plane wouldn't automatically become a lawn dart. They would have been able to glide 15 or so miles.
Yeah that's true. Multiple systems would have to f-up, back to back for it to have been just fuel.

I recall the pilots in that ATA near miss glided a few hundred kms and landed in Iceland. I think it was some kind of fuel transfer problem that caused it.

Every time I see that documentary on it, I imagine being a passenger on that sob, sitting in my seat over the Atlantic in a perfectly silent aircraft thinking: "well this sucks"

Air Transat Flight 236
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TexDill15
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In reply to aggiepublius • 8:25a, 3/2/19
AG
aggiepublius said:
cbr said:
CanyonAg77 said:
Obviously, none of the nukes had all of their failsafes fail. Because there has not been an accidental nuclear detonation

The old weapons, several accidents did set off the conventional explosives, but not in a way that would go nuclear. Fire would not have done it either. Newer weapons use insensitive high explosives.

The Arkansas missile explosion was due to a dropped wrench hitting a liquid fuel tank and boom. The warhead is often referred to as "The Arkansas Traveler".
In several cases all of the designed failsafes failed, yet the fire or drop or chemical explosion failed to create the conditions for an atomic explosion. I am no expert, but iirc most all american nukes after fat man require the uranium bullet to fire into the core at tremendous velocity and precision, far beyond normal kinetic or unintended chemical impacts. In fact most kinetic or chemical events cant even drive the bullet in at all.

(cbr = "chemical, biological, radiological"?)

What you have there is partially correct. Only Little Boy used the uranium "gun design" which was so simple in design and engineering, they didn't even test it before it was dropped on Hiroshima. Trinity and Fat Man and the later designs were the more complicated implosion devices that require great precision.

Most of the later designs are implosion devices that crush a sphere of fissile material into a core that requires extreme precision in the chemical explosives that are shaped to crush the sphere to get ensure criticality. The timing and precision of was new that units of time were created to measure it, including the "shake" that was named after "two shakes of a lambs tail. The precision was such the electrical switches that were used to initiate the chemical explosion were so specialized they were tracked and were a important tip off someone new was trying to join the nuclear club.

The next big jump was with thermonuclear or H-Bombs, which use a fission device initiator - a simple nuclear bomb - to start a fusion reaction among Hydrogen isotopes* that releases magnitudes greater of energy. These are even higher precision in timing.

There are then even more exotic forms - Neutron bombs (which release more energetic particles that damage biological material but leave the city behind), Jacketed bombs - using elements like Cobalt that salt the earth and leaved the ground poisoned for much longer periods. Some of these are/were Fission-Fusion-Fission devices that have massive yields in the 100Mt theoretical range.

I believe the US main warhead in inventory is a "dial-a-yield" that allows the warhead to be varied based on target. And that is much more complicated in engineering and still largely classified as far as I know.

*TLDR - Nukes are complicated. And the OB has the key component of an H-bomb in their gun safes and holsters, Tritium.



How the hell you know so much about bombs??
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EMY92
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8:28a, 3/2/19
AG
It's not that hard. And his wife works at a facility that works on them. You can figure out where by the username.

Also, check his thread on the Trinity Site.
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CanyonAg77
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In reply to EMY92 • 9:04a, 3/2/19
AG
EMY92 said:
It's not that hard. And his wife works at a facility that works on them. You can figure out where by the username.

Also, check his thread on the Trinity Site.
I believe he was referring to aggiepublius, not me.

And my wife working there really has not increased my knowledge. Obviously, she won't even confirm or deny anything I talk about regarding current nukes. And I don't hear anything much of her work, unless it's in the newspaper. And general stuff, such as which Laboratory thinks their stuff doesn't stink.

What her employment has done is sharpen my interest in the subject, and allowed me to accompany her on trips for work. During those trips, I have visited Manhattan Project sites, and museums in Albuquerque, Los Alamos, Trinity, Eglin AFB, Oak Ridge, and Santa Fe.

The definitive work is probably Richard Rhodes' The Making of the Atomic Bomb
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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2:11p, 3/2/19
Latest:

https://abc13.com/ntsb-starts-investigation-into-cargo-plane-crash-in-trinity-bay/5163154/
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Lonestar_Ag09
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3:44p, 3/2/19
AG
While I am enjoying following this thread for the crash...

I have gotten more random "useless knowledge" reading material from here...it's spectacular.
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CharlieBrown17
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In reply to Lonestar_Ag09 • 4:01p, 3/2/19
AG
cpsencik04 said:
random "useless knowledge"


Describes your average aviation nerd or pilot pretty well
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GAC06
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2:33a, 3/3/19
AG
What a thread.

It wasn't a methane bubble.

An engine stall means something specific for a jet engine, not like a stalled piston engine. It also wasn't that.

It wasn't fire or smoke or fuel exhaustion because it happened fast enough to not declare an emergency.

I doubt it was a load shift, because it was almost certainly containerized cargo, and I'd expect something to break loose on rotation instead of an arrival decent.

I'm guessing it's some kind of flight control malfunction. Runaway elevator trim, an actuator problem like what caused rudder hardovers in early 737's, or some actual structural problem whether caused by fatigue or other damage like a bird or drone strike.

That's all just conjecture though obviously.
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GAC06
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2:58a, 3/3/19
AG
Also they have apparently recovered the cockpit voice recorder so hopefully it can rule out speculation about it being intentional, which is another remote possibility.
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to CharlieBrown17 • 11:57a, 3/3/19
AG
CharlieBrown17 said:
cpsencik04 said:
random "useless knowledge"


Describes your average aviation nerd or pilot pretty well


Ive been told i resemble that remark.
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Mr. McGibblets
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12:11p, 3/3/19
AG
Suicide is my guess
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Duckhook
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In reply to Burnsey • 1:43p, 3/3/19
AG
Burnsey said:
Was their an atomic bomb on this 767?

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akaggie05
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1:46p, 3/3/19
AG
Flight data recorder found today. With the CVR already accounted for, fingers crossed that we start to get some real answers soon.

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Bert315
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In reply to Duckhook • 1:52p, 3/3/19
AG
Duckhook said:
Burnsey said:
Was their an atomic bomb on this 767?



Well their is absolutely no problem then. I believe there intentions are good and their are little devils (kittens) meeting they're rightful end.
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BuddysBud
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In reply to Bert315 • 3:28p, 3/3/19
AG
Bert315 said:
Duckhook said:
Burnsey said:
Was their an atomic bomb on this 767?



Well their is absolutely no problem then. I believe there intentions are good and their are little devils (kittens) meeting they're rightful end.
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CharlieBrown17
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In reply to Mr. McGibblets • 4:58p, 3/3/19
AG
Mr. McGibblets said:
Suicide is my guess


I would go with flight control/system failure as most likely and suicide as the next most likely.
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Hoss
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5:24p, 3/3/19
AG
I just don't see this being a suicide. Yeah, it's possible, but unless you're a terrorist why would you wanna take other people with you when you go? Why not just kick back in a chair at home and pop yourself in the head with a pistol? Or jump off a tall building. Or something. Nose diving an airliner with your coworkers onboard doesn't seem like a good way to do it.
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SECond2noneAgs
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In reply to Hoss • 5:27p, 3/3/19
AG
Not saying it's the case here, but there are murder-suicides every day, all over America
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