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Rain is outdoors.....

1,311,012 Views | 7090 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by TikkaShooter
fightingfarmer09
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Same. We just drove the pastures around Allens Creek and the low spots are already filled.

3' to go.
Kylie
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fightingfarmer09 said:

Brazos River coming out of its banks again in Austin County.
No surprised by this at all. My place on the yegua creek is flooded. cows up on islands...sucks
toolshed
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AG
cbr said:

i cannot believe this. there is NOWHERE NEAR enough rain to cause this. Something is up, big time. I had to move my damned freaked out cows again.

I need to find out what has changed so dramatically in the basin the last few years.


We've had so much rain the last 6 months that the ground can't possibly absorb any more rain as it falls. This means a smaller 1, 2, 3-4" rain has a much greater runoff than when the ground is absorbing a portio of it. Last week, parts of the Brazos basin had 3-7" of rain, or more. Those rains, on a regular basis simply cause more flooding. Lake storage is at or near capacity and water is released quicker and more often.

I think it's more a factor of the above vs something else changing. While we do continuously cover more ground with pavement and concrete, I don't know if that's as much of the issue vs just too much rain and nowhere to store it in the short term to minimize flooding. I'd imagine discussions are happening to create more reservoirs, but that will create a huge outcry over land grabs and other issues.
water turkey
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I have a slope on my side yard and it seeps water for two days after every rain now. The ground is so saturated, it can't hold any more water.

Has been an extremely wet winter.
cbr
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AG
toolshed said:

cbr said:

i cannot believe this. there is NOWHERE NEAR enough rain to cause this. Something is up, big time. I had to move my damned freaked out cows again.

I need to find out what has changed so dramatically in the basin the last few years.


We've had so much rain the last 6 months that the ground can't possibly absorb any more rain as it falls. This means a smaller 1, 2, 3-4" rain has a much greater runoff than when the ground is absorbing a portio of it. Last week, parts of the Brazos basin had 3-7" of rain, or more. Those rains, on a regular basis simply cause more flooding. Lake storage is at or near capacity and water is released quicker and more often.

I think it's more a factor of the above vs something else changing. While we do continuously cover more ground with pavement and concrete, I don't know if that's as much of the issue vs just too much rain and nowhere to store it in the short term to minimize flooding. I'd imagine discussions are happening to create more reservoirs, but that will create a huge outcry over land grabs and other issues.
I get it, sort of, and i follow the coe and bra releases, which are part of the problem. But last time it flooded we had 40"+ of rain upriver in 3 days. The time before that it was 12-18" upriver, but the river was already up at 30' at the start of the event.

Both december and now, we had THREE inches of rain, on a 20' river base. Something is very different now.
cbr
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AG
I found this old article, from 2016. Basically at 2016, 8 of the wettest 18 month periods in history going back to 1919 were from 2014-16. 2016 was 20% more rian than the 10th place record period, which was 1919.

If you updated it to a 4 year period, i would think that the last 4 years must have been the wettest stretch in history, by a HUGE margin. Wtf is going on?
AgLA06
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cbr said:

toolshed said:

cbr said:

i cannot believe this. there is NOWHERE NEAR enough rain to cause this. Something is up, big time. I had to move my damned freaked out cows again.

I need to find out what has changed so dramatically in the basin the last few years.


We've had so much rain the last 6 months that the ground can't possibly absorb any more rain as it falls. This means a smaller 1, 2, 3-4" rain has a much greater runoff than when the ground is absorbing a portio of it. Last week, parts of the Brazos basin had 3-7" of rain, or more. Those rains, on a regular basis simply cause more flooding. Lake storage is at or near capacity and water is released quicker and more often.

I think it's more a factor of the above vs something else changing. While we do continuously cover more ground with pavement and concrete, I don't know if that's as much of the issue vs just too much rain and nowhere to store it in the short term to minimize flooding. I'd imagine discussions are happening to create more reservoirs, but that will create a huge outcry over land grabs and other issues.
I get it, sort of, and i follow the coe and bra releases, which are part of the problem. But last time it flooded we had 40"+ of rain upriver in 3 days. The time before that it was 12-18" upriver, but the river was already up at 30' at the start of the event.

Both december and now, we had THREE inches of rain, on a 20' river base. Something is very different now.



Nothing is being absorbed in saturated areas. Everything is running to any water body / ditch and heading directly to the river. Until it dries out a bit flooding is going to be a possibility.

People don't understand how much water is typically absorbed during a normal rain event by the ground and vegetation. It's the reason large cities like Houston flood as more and more impervious cover is created by development. It's also the reason permitting requires retention on most projects these days.
fightingfarmer09
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Change in weather patterns and development downstream.

We have photos over the last 75 years of floods on our place and the Richmond gauge readings. Changed a lot over the decades.
schmellba99
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cbr said:

i cannot believe this. there is NOWHERE NEAR enough rain to cause this. Something is up, big time. I had to move my damned freaked out cows again.

I need to find out what has changed so dramatically in the basin the last few years.


Except there has been that much rain. Sept - Dec 2018 was the wettest Q4 in history along the coast in TX. More water in that stretch than the previous year that included Harvey.

Pretry much all of September was rain. Most of October and most of December it rained. We can probably count on one hand the number of days of sunny weather.

The ground is 100% saturated, the rivers are running off as much water as they can. Any amount of rain right now becomes about 99% runoff, and it doesnt take much to cause significant changes when you are as saturated as everything east of 35 is right now.
aggiepublius
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Add in just plain old rain amounts falling in places with that are different than measurements at NWS gauges.

KBTX had a story about one rancher with two gauges in NE Brazos County bear the Navadota that recorded >110" of rain on his land in 2018. The official gauge at Easterwood had just over 50" in 2018 which is 10" above normal. That is quite a delta for one county - (and one I am a bit skeptical of )

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Brazos-County-rancher-records-100-of-rain-in-2018-503911481.html

While not official a very coordinated national project that tried to fill in the holes in the data is COCORAHS.


Always thought about participating but they require maunual guages and observations witha specific gauge that measures accurately and needs good siting.

Here is the 2018 data for the Texas stations
https://cocorahs.org/WaterYearSummary/State.aspx?state=TX&year=2018
Kenneth_2003
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While not "official" by any stretch dad keeps a rain gauge and prs all of the readings in a spreadsheet going back to when they built thr house in 04.

Over 80 inches in 2018. Said the driest of the past 4 years was wetter than the wettest of the previous 9.

House is Woodlands/ Magnolia just off 2978 north of 1488
saltydog13
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There were one to two times I can think of where east of BCS got >12" more rain than town did. We got around 60-65" near snook.
cbr
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this is crazy, normally a 3" rain north of us makes the river come up 2-5 feet. This time its' 25 feet!? I have about had it.
SteveBott
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cbr I actually was thinking of you yesterday. I went to CS to celebrate Christmas with mom and dad. Kids schedules were quite complicated this year. As I was crossing the Brazos in hwy 21 bridge I was shocked at the water level. For those that don't use that bridge there is normally 20-25 feet drop from the top ledge to water and it was FULL. I mean another 6" inches and it would be overflowing into the pastures.

In 24 years crossing there I've never seen it that high. Every farm field had standing water.
ttha_aggie_09
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Over 50" in the hill country this year...
toolshed
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All the reservoirs and lakes in the Brazos basin are at or above 100% capacity. There simply isn't storage space to absorb rains. Compound that with the saturated soils and it's easier to see why major flooding happens with these smaller rains. But the event last week wasn't smaller, by any means. Pocket areas received 6-8 or more inches of rain Thursday and Friday last.
fightingfarmer09
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On the bright side I think we've crested.
cbr
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Appreciate the thoughts! I think it's crested now too. I just can't believe this.
nonameag99
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It it top of bank in west columbia
schmellba99
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nonameag99 said:

It it top of bank in west columbia
Same just upstream of you on the 1462 bridge near me in Rosharon. Oyster Creek is at the top of its banks as well.

I'm ready for a good 6 month drought at this point.
Pooh Ah
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Reed Timmer is in the hood. That can't be a good thing.

SteveBott
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We got hammered in central Texas
EMY92
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Waco area was closed to moving from abnormally dry into drought conditions. We got about 1.25", I think that equals the past 2 months combined.

Today was very beneficial.
Pooh Ah
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Pooh Ah
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Model for Saturday night and Sunday shared by TxStormChasers

HumbleAg04
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Got 5" in Hye at a comapny event I planned and hosted.... in 1 hour. Cleared up and was gorgeous after but was a **** show for a while.
FBG_Ag78
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Heard the thunder Humble but we just got a light sprinkle in Fredericksburg
Swarely
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Cap10k in Austin is cancelled. Good cal though. We are about to get pounded.
45-70Ag
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This guy is a good follow and like someone mentioned above, you probably don't want him in your neighborhood.




45-70Ag
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I know it's facebook but yeah, it's time to go inside

https://www.facebook.com/65676345841/posts/10157222661390842?sfns=mo
flashplayer
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Was starting to sweat just south of New Braunfels as we had only received 0.25" as of early this morning, and that was our total precipitation since March 1. Ground was powder dry and cracking everywhere.

Has been raining pretty steadily now for past several hours. Just over an inch of rain. Not as much as we needed, but I'll gladly take it.
Aggie_3
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ought1ag
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3" fell between Tilden and Three Rivers early Sunday AM........should do wonders closing up the cracks you could lose a small dog in.
AgsMnn
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Only got a little more than 1" in DeWitt.

Still showing 100% chance Saturday. What are the project totals for this weekend?
saltydog13
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Looks like .5" -4"+, but the heavier rains towards east texas
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