ReelAg6 said:

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CAOtto1984 said:

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I saw one projection this morning that Mathis is only expected to get to about 85% full come Friday. I have no idea if there is additional flow beyond that that will continue to fill the lake but perhaps someone here knows better than I do.

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Given the current pace of 1.4' per day, it should fill in about 5 days, assuming the pace slows as the lake gets bigger. I'd bet it's full in a week. The Nueces peaked in Three Rivers on the 1st at 12,000 CFS, but is still at 9,880.

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What is incredible is the amount of water that seems to have been soaked up between all of the gages. I need to download the 30 day data for each station and run the totals.

2 weeks ago I felt certain they'd have to open the dam and spill at least 1 full lake volume. Now I'm thinking the lake just barely fills. Though the tail out of Three Rivers could still be pretty long as Tilden, Cotulla, and Asherton all peaked at over 20,000 cfs.

First blip of water arrived in Three Rivers on the 26th, and between the 28th and 29th the lake crept up about 1 inch. So the lake is roughly 2.5 days flow from TR.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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ReelAg6 said:

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CAOtto1984 said:

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I saw one projection this morning that Mathis is only expected to get to about 85% full come Friday. I have no idea if there is additional flow beyond that that will continue to fill the lake but perhaps someone here knows better than I do.

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Given the current pace of 1.4' per day, it should fill in about 5 days, assuming the pace slows as the lake gets bigger. I'd bet it's full in a week. The Nueces peaked in Three Rivers on the 1st at 12,000 CFS, but is still at 9,880.

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What is incredible is the amount of water that seems to have been soaked up between all of the gages. I need to download the 30 day data for each station and run the totals.

2 weeks ago I felt certain they'd have to open the dam and spill at least 1 full lake volume. Now I'm thinking the lake just barely fills. Though the tail out of Three Rivers could still be pretty long as Tilden, Cotulla, and Asherton all peaked at over 20,000 cfs.

First blip of water arrived in Three Rivers on the 26th, and between the 28th and 29th the lake crept up about 1 inch. So the lake is roughly 2.5 days flow from TR.

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Water tends to slow as it rolls downstream. Especially true in flat areas, like that part of STX. I'm sure a ton of water has been absorbed, but I've noticed the same on the Guad even after flow was running into the lake and the areas were saturated.

got an emergency text last night stating that there was a boil water notice for Three Rivers and they were most likely going to open the gates on choke to "help flush" the system.

Will it fill up? Looks like Mathis is down to filling at half a percentage point a day now.

Looks like a little still left upstream but might be tight.

I doubt it gets completely full. They are only a little over a foot short of full, but that last foot of elevation represents a lot of acre-ft. The flow coming in is just not enough to get that last 8-10% while overcoming the increased evaporation off of the much larger surface area the lake now has. I would guess they top out around 92%.

Jbob04 said:

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Central Texas is in a bad way too and no relief in sight

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It hasn't rained here since the beginning of July basically. During all the hill country floods we didn't get ****, and have already had several days of 103+ with several more on the way.

Yep, we missed out on all of that rain. Also, BCS had close to 8" and we didn't get anything and I'm only an hour north of there.

Jbob04 said:

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Central Texas is in a bad way too and no relief in sight

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Patience y'all

That's a long time away yet

Posted this morning by Austin mets.

I live in the above average area. I'll believe it when I see it.

JJ I don't blame you. El Niño in the past has brought good rains in Texas but since this is a 'super Nino" who knows

The last super was 100 years ago

I hope it's right. I just checked the raindrop app and my zip code has received 3.24" this year. Not that I'm expecting much.

Had a storm break through the Polish dome last night and drop 3/4" in Poth (Wilson County).

4/10 in frio county last night

What day would this hit the Houston area ? I'm out of town and may need to get back to Htown to move a vehicle down near the water in Kemah

[1 pm CDT Aug 30] The area of low pressure over the northern Gulf could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm as it drifts generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is expected across far southern… pic.twitter.com/elFERQnJ0x

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 30, 2026

I'd consider this facebook gibberish.

From a local Austin weather guy

SteveBott said:

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I'd consider this facebook gibberish.

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In what way? Lindner is a pretty respected guy when it comes to tropical stuff and flooding. He was just showing their app's presentation of the various models.

I don't know him. And I see so much slop from AI my distrust guard is at an all time high. I know Avery though. He has been in Austin a long time. Well respected. My apologies

SteveBott said:

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From a local Austin weather guy

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From the same guy. This is complete baloney. Every model but one has it riding 45, but he thinks its just gonna sit and spin and dump water all over central Texas when its 200-300 miles away.

This is from another Austin local station. Not much difference