ReelAg6 said:

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CAOtto1984 said:

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I saw one projection this morning that Mathis is only expected to get to about 85% full come Friday. I have no idea if there is additional flow beyond that that will continue to fill the lake but perhaps someone here knows better than I do.

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Given the current pace of 1.4' per day, it should fill in about 5 days, assuming the pace slows as the lake gets bigger. I'd bet it's full in a week. The Nueces peaked in Three Rivers on the 1st at 12,000 CFS, but is still at 9,880.

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What is incredible is the amount of water that seems to have been soaked up between all of the gages. I need to download the 30 day data for each station and run the totals.

2 weeks ago I felt certain they'd have to open the dam and spill at least 1 full lake volume. Now I'm thinking the lake just barely fills. Though the tail out of Three Rivers could still be pretty long as Tilden, Cotulla, and Asherton all peaked at over 20,000 cfs.

First blip of water arrived in Three Rivers on the 26th, and between the 28th and 29th the lake crept up about 1 inch. So the lake is roughly 2.5 days flow from TR.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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ReelAg6 said:

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CAOtto1984 said:

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I saw one projection this morning that Mathis is only expected to get to about 85% full come Friday. I have no idea if there is additional flow beyond that that will continue to fill the lake but perhaps someone here knows better than I do.

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Given the current pace of 1.4' per day, it should fill in about 5 days, assuming the pace slows as the lake gets bigger. I'd bet it's full in a week. The Nueces peaked in Three Rivers on the 1st at 12,000 CFS, but is still at 9,880.

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What is incredible is the amount of water that seems to have been soaked up between all of the gages. I need to download the 30 day data for each station and run the totals.

2 weeks ago I felt certain they'd have to open the dam and spill at least 1 full lake volume. Now I'm thinking the lake just barely fills. Though the tail out of Three Rivers could still be pretty long as Tilden, Cotulla, and Asherton all peaked at over 20,000 cfs.

First blip of water arrived in Three Rivers on the 26th, and between the 28th and 29th the lake crept up about 1 inch. So the lake is roughly 2.5 days flow from TR.

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Water tends to slow as it rolls downstream. Especially true in flat areas, like that part of STX. I'm sure a ton of water has been absorbed, but I've noticed the same on the Guad even after flow was running into the lake and the areas were saturated.

got an emergency text last night stating that there was a boil water notice for Three Rivers and they were most likely going to open the gates on choke to "help flush" the system.

As forecasted, Mathis sitting at 85.5% full as of this morning!

Lake Corpus Christi: 88.3% full as of 08-08-2026

Will it fill up? Looks like Mathis is down to filling at half a percentage point a day now.

Looks like a little still left upstream but might be tight.

I doubt it gets completely full. They are only a little over a foot short of full, but that last foot of elevation represents a lot of acre-ft. The flow coming in is just not enough to get that last 8-10% while overcoming the increased evaporation off of the much larger surface area the lake now has. I would guess they top out around 92%.