I have a theory.

The talk about Houston not taking a QB at 2 starting making the rounds right when the noise was getting louder regarding Carolina taking Bryce Young at 1. Maybe the talk about Houston seeing one QB and one QB only worthy of the pick is true. If that's the case and they actually think a guy like Will Anderson is a generational can't-miss talent then why let that leak out?

My theory is they are actively trying to entice someone to jump in front of Indy and Arizona because it's still highly unlikely that Houston would trade that pick within the division. Right now all the talk is about who will trade with Arizona, why would any team do that if there's a chance they could jump to 2 and take the QB2 who is likely Stroud? I do think that this is a 2 QB draft and then a significant drop to everyone else. Perhaps Houston isn't sold on any of them. The thing is any trade would have to take place after Carolina makes their pick. If any team wanting to move up thinks there's a chance they can get to 2, why even talk to Arizona at 3?

The team most likely to engage Houston in that scenario would be Las Vegas with Seattle and Detroit as wild cards. Those are 3 teams that are set at starting QB this season, but not necessarily for the long term. I think Atlanta gives Ridder a chance next year. Anyone else interested is drafting after the 12th pick and I doubt Houston has interest in going back that far.

Just for grins I looked up Jalen Hurts stats in 2021 (year 2) to compare with Davis Mills stats in 2022 (year 2) specifically because I wanted to see what they did the year before he broke out.

Hurts 2021
Games played & started: 15
Record: 8-7
Passing: 265 for 432 (61.3%)
Yards: 3144
TD: 16
Int: 9
Rating: 87.2
QBR: 48.5
Sacks: 26

Mills 2022
Games played & started: 15
Record: 3-10-1
Passing: 292 for 479 (61.0%)
Yards: 3118
TD: 17
Int: 15
Rating: 78.8
QBR: 33.1
Sacks: 31

I'm not a Mills defender, but I will say is the team hasn't done him any favors to build around him and give him a chance to succeed, that's the opposite of Philadelphia and Hurts. For me year 3 is the biggest year for any QB in the league, that's make or break territory. We picked up Schultz in free agency, that's a plus for Mills. If they draft a legit WR like JSN that's a plus for Mills, if Metchie plays that's a plus for Mills. They added Singletary to pair with Pierce, that's a plus for Mills, they could also improve the offensive line in this draft which would be a plus for Mills. Philadelphia shipped off Reagor and added AJ Brown to their passing game, DeVonta Smith was no longer a rookie, their run game and offensive lines were significant as well.

I'm not rooting for this scenario, there's a lot I like about Stroud, but do not be surprised if Carolina picks Young and Houston has a deal in place to move back, just not very far.

Now list their rushing stats and TDs. Dear god this board is ridiculous sometimes…

Hurts' and Mills' stats really can't even begin to be compared, even in 2021 vs. Mills in 2022. Especially considering how far behind we were late in so many games vs. Hurts playing in competitive games.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/17/bryce-young-now-an-overwhelming-favorite-to-go-first-overall/#comments

Buck Compton said:

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Now list their rushing stats and TDs. Dear god this board is ridiculous sometimes…

Hurts' and Mills' stats really can't even begin to be compared, even in 2021 vs. Mills in 2022. Especially considering how far behind we were late in so many games vs. Hurts playing in competitive games.

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This is the offseason, this is the only fun I get to have.

Max Power said:

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Buck Compton said:

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Now list their rushing stats and TDs. Dear god this board is ridiculous sometimes…

Hurts' and Mills' stats really can't even begin to be compared, even in 2021 vs. Mills in 2022. Especially considering how far behind we were late in so many games vs. Hurts playing in competitive games.

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This is the offseason, this is the only fun I get to have.

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Fair enough. Carry on.

Mills is great if the Texans plan is to tank another year and get Williams next year.

I can understand the Anderson chatter, but how has Levis moved in front of Stroud?

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/18/will-anderson-will-levis-move-ahead-of-c-j-stroud-in-betting-odds-for-no-2-pick/

I don't know which QB will go first. But I know which QB left will go second. And it's not the Kentucky QB. If he goes in the top 10, good luck whoever drafts him.

Yeah this is all bluster at this point. Looking forward to seeing who the Texans do draft.

I thought about the 49er's and how they ended up building out that defense first and the offensive line. It was really tough for them when it came to skill players. To me, while I have been a get Meco and draft Young guy from the beginning, I think there's a great case to get Anderson at 2 if you think he's that kind of talent, then BPA for 12, then grab Hooker at the top of round 2.

Maybe you get Anderson, Carter, and Hooker in the first 34 picks. Not a bad haul.

I just don't think any of the later QBs like Hooker are all that of an improvement over Mills.

Seems like that would be a wasted pick.

If they don't take a QB at #2 then don't take one and run it back with Mills and Keenum and use that pick on a piece to help them (or the QB you take next year) out.

I will say at least this year we have a reason to watch the draft. Draft night should be plenty fun for Texan fans.

If they don't draft a QB and trot Mills and Keenum out there, I'm expecting some home crowds under 5,000.

Ag_07 said:

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I just don't think any of the later QBs like Hooker are all that of an improvement over Mills.

Seems like that would be a wasted pick.

If they don't take a QB at #2 then don't take one and run it back with Mills and Keenum and use that pick on a piece to help them (or the QB you take next year) out.

I will say at least this year we have a reason to watch the draft. Draft night should be plenty fun for Texan fans.

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I could get on board with building the defense and packaging picks next year for Williams, if he's expected to be much better than Stroud. I just don't think the Texans would do it.

And you nailed the reason why.

Ag_07 said:

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I just don't think any of the later QBs like Hooker are all that of an improvement over Mills.

Seems like that would be a wasted pick.

If they don't take a QB at #2 then don't take one and run it back with Mills and Keenum and use that pick on a piece to help them (or the QB you take next year) out.

I will say at least this year we have a reason to watch the draft. Draft night should be plenty fun for Texan fans.

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I agree with this on QB. If they are not sold on Stroud at #2, then take BPA or trade back and see what's available next year. Drafting QBs is something of a crapshoot and you can blow a lot of draft picks taking guys that will never play.

I posted at the time I did not like us taking Mills with a 3. We were going to have some high picks coming up in the future to use on a QB and needed help at a lot of positions. You can get quality OL with a 3. What if we had drafted a good center with that pick - our OL would be looking pretty strong now. Instead we went Charlie Casserly and "outsmarted" everyone taking a long shot Mills. Was a dumb move.

Next year is likely to be a better QB class, we will likely still finish with a fairly high pick, and will have plenty of resources to package and trade up for a guy we want.

Again, assuming Bryant goes 1 and we are not sold on Stroud at 2.

FWIW I hope they stay far away from Caleb Williams

He's pretty gifted physically which makes him very enticing but I think he has some big red flag character flaws. He screams great college player but meh NFL franchise QB.

Ag_07 said:

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FWIW I hope they stay far away from Caleb Williams

He's pretty gifted physically which makes him very enticing but I think he has some big red flag character flaws. He screams great college player but meh NFL franchise QB.

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What character flaws does he have? All I've seen is that he's a cocky a**hole, which would put him inline what 99% of the QBs in the NFL. Is there something else out there?

The Porkchop Express said:

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If they don't draft a QB and trot Mills and Keenum out there, I'm expecting some home crowds under 5,000.

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Another reason I doubt they pass on a QB at 2, at some point you have to look like you're trying to win games to get fans in the stands. Whether it's Young or Stroud that's an improvement over Mills & Keenum.

If they pass on a QB, they don't have to get one through the draft. Just thinking of the Shanahan coaching tree...

Kubiak - Traded for Schaub (backup at time) and won division/playoff games
Kyle - Traded for Garoppolo and went to a Super Bowl
McVay - Traded for Stafford and won a Super Bowl
Stefanski - No immediate success, but realistic for 2023

And while these guys haven't had success, they appear to want to trade for QBs...

Saleh
McDaniel
Matt LaFleur

It would not surprise me if DeMeco's QB isn't in this or next year's draft.

Ag_07 said:

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Maybe that's all it is but to me he comes off as a guy who once he gets to the NFL it's gonna come at him fast and he's gonna struggle. I would be very hesitant putting all my eggs in the Caleb Williams basket.

But we're digressing at this point

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No worries, was just making sure I hadn't missed anything.

Yeah, back on topic, I'm really at a loss on what I think at this point with pick #2. I've resigned myself to getting a QB, but I've always been a proponent of going BPA in the 1st round. So I think I would be OK if we didn't pick a QB at #2, but only if we're picking the BPA at that point, which would be either Anderson or Carter.

That said, drafting Wilson at #2 because he fits our defensive scheme is worrisome, because if we're taking someone just to fit a need, we really need a QB at #2 more than a DE, since it's one of the deepest positions in this draft. Taking Wilson #2 you have to have the confidence that he will be All Pro by his 2nd year in this defensive scheme, and that Stroud won't be a top QB. In my opinion, if Stroud ends up being a top QB, and Wilson isn't an All Pro then no matter how much I love him here, DeMeco won't be here for the length of his contract, plain and simple.

I hope DeMeco realizes that taking Wilson (or any of the other non-QB players outside of Anderson and Carter) at #2 will be the only scenario where he is tying the success of his coaching career to the success of a player. Which rarely ends well for the coach.

Snake Jazz said:

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I can understand not being "in love" with Stroud and not wanting to take him at QB. But, for some reason, Levis seems to be next in line, and if that's the case...ugh. I don't want several years of watching this cocky weirdo missing open receivers.

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preach

Snake Jazz said:

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I can understand not being "in love" with Stroud and not wanting to take him at QB. But, for some reason, Levis seems to be next in line, and if that's the case...ugh. I don't want several years of watching this cocky weirdo missing open receivers.

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If they don't go Stroud, I might be OK with Levis at 12, but they better not trade up to try to grab him,.

Snake Jazz said:

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I can understand not being "in love" with Stroud and not wanting to take him at QB. But, for some reason, Levis seems to be next in line, and if that's the case...ugh. I don't want several years of watching this cocky weirdo missing open receivers.

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I tend to agree. If there's no one you like at 2 then I don't see how you could see them as a "value" at 12. If you like that position enough to draft a guy at 12th overall then take them with the even earlier pick. That's not advocating for Levi's at 2, just seems like take one at 2 or no one. The only possibility that might make sense is if a guy is left at the end of the first and you trade up from the second to get the extra year of contract control.

Also, if these rumors are true, then Caserio needs to go because damn, we have so many leaks to major media about our critical draft planning. This will be the 2nd year in a row that media knew about and reported on who we are planning on taking well ahead of time.

Rumors run rampant this time of year and GMs are often the leakers themselves. Rumors are part of the strategy.



Actually since Caserio has been here things seem pretty damn tight. Think that's why Fat F McClain is bitter and quit the chron.

Caserio leaking is smart. I think he probably would prefer more draft capital than the #2 pick. So, how do you get others to get interested in #2? Make is seem like we'll go defense or BPA and hope some team will bite.

If we're going QB, then AZ has all the lever as they have the first non-QB pick.

Ag_07 said:

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Rumors run rampant this time of year and GMs are often the leakers themselves. Rumors are part of the strategy.



Actually since Caserio has been here things seem pretty damn tight. Think that's why Fat F McClain is bitter and quit the chron.

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LanceZ kind of took his place though, he reported last year that we were targeting Stingley and Green last year and was the first one to say we were looking at Wilson this year and that we're targeting Levis with the other pick (which is pretty specific). Leaks of possibilities are good, having our actual plan leaked isn't.

I think you're overreacting on the leak thing.

Most of the time you can narrow it down to a few players that teams will be taking. You can easily identify needs and most teams have guys at certain positions ranked pretty similar.

It was pretty clear they were gonna go DB so it was either DSG or Stingley.

For me leaks are down on the list of things to be concerned about. I'm more concerned they actually take Levis rather than it's leaked beforehand.

Ag_07 said:

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I think you're overreacting on the leak thing.

Most of the time you can narrow it down to a few players that teams will be taking. You can easily identify needs and most teams have guys at certain positions ranked pretty similar.

It was pretty clear they were gonna go DB so it was either DSG or Stingley.

For me leaks are down on the list of things to be concerned about. I'm more concerned they actually take Levis rather than it's leaked beforehand.

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I don't know, I can see where it could help, if we're mainly looking to trade down. But at the same time, LZ threw out a very specific scenario that could hurt us to be out in the public. It can all be distractions, but wow, that was a left field distraction of Travis Wilson and Will Levis as our picks.

I have no clue on the QBs anymore, or even this draft anymore. This is a rare draft where going into it, I have no clue which way I would be excited about the direction the team goes. There aren't any sure fire picks out there thanks to Carter's brush with the law and showing up out of shape.

It just seems like every potential high pick this year has had all the flaws highlighted and dissected over and over to the point that it's tough to tell which way any team should go.

After Panthers make the trade

Everyone said they are picking CJ

Now everyone saying Young

Too funny

Who knows

Just a reminder, it is possible that neither Young or Stroud will be great QBs. If Will Anderson is close to being a player like Von Miller, the teams that pass on him for a QB may look stupid in a few years. Anthony Richardson might end being the best QB in this draft.

If the Texans draft Will Anderson 2 and Anthony Richardson 12 they could be the big winners. All those duds drafted 2nd over the last 10 drafts should be a sign but nobody is seeing it.