*******The Official Houston Texans 2022: AW Thread************

344,664 Views | 3999 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by IrishAg
Ag_07
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AG
I agree and that's the problem

You'd like to get him before someone else does but you don't wanna trade up for him and reach.
IrishAg
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coastalAg said:

ElCheAg said:

Will Anderson at #2 and Richardson at #12.

I'd take that.


That would be great, but I am skeptical that Richardson falls to 12.
I would be good with that...ironically I think it was my hopeful scenario 3 or 4 months ago. Who knows if he'll fall, but I wouldn't be opposed to jumping up 2 or 3 spots to make sure we could grab him.
Max Power
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coastalAg said:

ElCheAg said:

Will Anderson at #2 and Richardson at #12.

I'd take that.


That would be great, but I am skeptical that Richardson falls to 12.
100% agree, too many teams need QB's between picks 4-11 for that to be realistic. Let's say Stroud doesn't get picked at 2, I don't see him falling past Indy at 4. Indy has shown a lot of interest in Levis but I think that's only because they are picking the third QB based on projections and at least need to put in the effort if it could be him.

I'm still not sure what the teams actually think of Levis and Richardson. All we hear are what the media is speculating and projecting. Any GM that takes a QB in the first round has their job on the line immediately for that pick. Young and Stroud are good picks in the first IMO, any other QB is a significant gamble based on their limited results.

Levis and Richardson remind me of this scene from Moneyball.

Scout: "He's got a beautiful swing. The ball explodes off his bat. He throws the club head at the ball and when he connects he drives it."
Billy Beane: "If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?"

If Levis and Richardson are good QB's, why don't they win more games or have more scoring plays? I know this is an overly simplistic way of looking at them, but it makes sense to me in terms of reputation vs on field performance and winning games. Granted the reverse could be said and why isn't Stetson Bennett highly rated? There's no guarantees out there for any of these players but Young and Stroud have won games, big games, which is what separates them from guys like Levis and Richardson.
Texan_Aggie
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Max Power said:

coastalAg said:

ElCheAg said:

Will Anderson at #2 and Richardson at #12.

I'd take that.


That would be great, but I am skeptical that Richardson falls to 12.
100% agree, too many teams need QB's between picks 4-11 for that to be realistic. Let's say Stroud doesn't get picked at 2, I don't see him falling past Indy at 4. Indy has shown a lot of interest in Levis but I think that's only because they are picking the third QB based on projections and at least need to put in the effort if it could be him.

I'm still not sure what the teams actually think of Levis and Richardson. All we hear are what the media is speculating and projecting. Any GM that takes a QB in the first round has their job on the line immediately for that pick. Young and Stroud are good picks in the first IMO, any other QB is a significant gamble based on their limited results.

Levis and Richardson remind me of this scene from Moneyball.

Scout: "He's got a beautiful swing. The ball explodes off his bat. He throws the club head at the ball and when he connects he drives it."
Billy Beane: "If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?"

If Levis and Richardson are good QB's, why don't they win more games or have more scoring plays? I know this is an overly simplistic way of looking at them, but it makes sense to me in terms of reputation vs on field performance and winning games. Granted the reverse could be said and why isn't Stetson Bennett highly rated? There's no guarantees out there for any of these players but Young and Stroud have won games, big games, which is what separates them from guys like Levis and Richardson.
This is exactly it. The only reason I could think of to get excited about these guys is that both of them had some sort of systematic hindrance (i.e. coach, talent, offensive philosophy, etc.) that prohibited them from doing it.

There are a lot of egotistical fools in the NFL that think "I can fix that". I'd go safe and hit on more sure-fire candidates with this high draft capital. There are too many holes to ignore taking a project QB. Additionally, I think the QB carousel for veterans is a new trend to stay for a while and it'd be much better to have a quality and deep team with everything but the QB position while constantly looking for trade/FA veteran QBs.
Bobby Jimbo
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AG
Trade back from #2 a couple picks, and draft Tyree Wilson (who I'd argue is a better fit than Anderson in a 4-3).
Trade up from #12 (possibly using the assets you got from trading back from #2) to draft Anthony Richardson.

Leave the first round with 2 high ceiling physical freaks.
Ryan34
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AG
I think that's a bad comparison. Mahomes went 5-7 his junior year. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes all had significant concerns coming out of college, and their physical talent have carried them to a lot of success. Same could be said, to varying degrees, for guys like Justin Herbert, Cam Newton, and Kyler Murray.

As schemes have gotten more diverse, NFL teams have gotten a lot better at building a scheme around the QB's strengths rather than trying to force a QB into their preferred style. That has allowed guys with elite raw talent to have a lot more success than say 20 years ago.
Snake Jazz
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Bobby Jimbo said:

Trade back from #2 a couple picks, and draft Tyree Wilson (who I'd argue is a better fit than Anderson in a 4-3).
Trade up from #12 (possibly using the assets you got from trading back from #2) to draft Anthony Richardson.

Leave the first round with 2 high ceiling physical freaks.
I would be ok with this, even though I have doubt Richardson will live up to his ability. However, If I'm going to gamble on a QB I don't love, I want to gamble on elite talent.
Snake Jazz
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Some Trey Lance trade smoke this morning...Ryans and Slowik are familiar with him. I like the idea of giving him a chance more than drafting Levis or Hooker, assuming the cost isn't too much in return.

Purdy is probably the long term answer in SF, but he may not play this season. SF probably doesn't want to play Darnold all season.

I would trade a third, a late rounder or two, and I would toss in Davis Mills, as well. SF probably would want at LEAST a 2nd. I wouldn't trade the second pick of the second round for Lance, though. Maybe make a conditional pick in 2024 depending on Lance's performance?

Probably not a match there, but I do like avoiding Levis or Hooker.
IrishAg
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Snake Jazz said:

Some Trey Lance trade smoke this morning...Ryans and Slowik are familiar with him. I like the idea of giving him a chance more than drafting Levis or Hooker, assuming the cost isn't too much in return.

Purdy is probably the long term answer in SF, but he may not play this season. SF probably doesn't want to play Darnold all season.

I would trade a third, a late rounder or two, and I would toss in Davis Mills, as well. SF probably would want at LEAST a 2nd. I wouldn't trade the second pick of the second round for Lance, though. Maybe make a conditional pick in 2024 depending on Lance's performance?

Probably not a match there, but I do like avoiding Levis or Hooker.
If the price was right, I would trade for Lance over Levis or Richardson also. They're gonna want high picks since he's still on his rookie contract. I agree on the conditional aspect for 2024, and would even let it scale up to our 1st rounder (we make the playoffs and he starts every game), which would mean we hit it out of the park with Lance.

But if we could somehow get Lance, and keep our #2 and 12 this year, that would be amazing.
Bobby Jimbo
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Snake Jazz said:

Bobby Jimbo said:

Trade back from #2 a couple picks, and draft Tyree Wilson (who I'd argue is a better fit than Anderson in a 4-3).
Trade up from #12 (possibly using the assets you got from trading back from #2) to draft Anthony Richardson.

Leave the first round with 2 high ceiling physical freaks.
I would be ok with this, even though I have doubt Richardson will live up to his ability. If I'm going to gamble, I want to gamble on elite talent.
Yeah I've thought about it a lot, and while someone like Stroud could be a good QB in the NFL, I don't think "good" is enough to get you into contention. You basically need a freak at QB if you want a legitimate chance, especially when you're in the same conference as Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, and Lawrence. There is a good chance that AR15 does not pan at all, but I think there's a higher chance of hitting a home run with him than someone like Stroud.
Tom Kazansky 2012
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coastalAg said:

ElCheAg said:

Will Anderson at #2 and Richardson at #12.

I'd take that.


That would be great, but I am skeptical that Richardson falls to 12.
Time to float out Levis rumors then
Bobby Jimbo
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Bobby Jimbo said:

Trade back from #2 a couple picks, and draft Tyree Wilson (who I'd argue is a better fit than Anderson in a 4-3).
Trade up from #12 (possibly using the assets you got from trading back from #2) to draft Anthony Richardson.

Leave the first round with 2 high ceiling physical freaks.

Adding another wrinkle to this idea. What if we packaged Mills and a pick for Trey Lance, and still drafted AR15? I'm assuming the 49ers would want QB depth after sending off Lance, so we could send them Mills and a lower draft pick in return.

Lance could be the starter for the next 1-2 seasons. The offense you would run with Lance would be similar to the offense you run with AR15. Once Lance's contract is up after the 2024 season, you could let him walk away, and at that point AR15 would (hopefully) be the full-time starter.
Bobby Jimbo
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nm
Ag_07
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AG
I hope we don't draft Richardson just so I don't have to hear or read that awful nickname yall have given him.
Bobby Jimbo
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Ag_07 said:

I hope we don't draft Richardson just so I don't have to hear or read that awful nickname yall have given him.
I do it so I don't have to type out Richardson each time lol
Texan_Aggie
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AG
Just call him Tony Ricky
LincolnBorglum79
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The Trey Lance rumors could change everything for the Texans. Lance for a conditional pick next year or a third round pick this year would solve our QB issue and allow us to draft Anderson at 2 another defensive player at 12 hopefully adding a WR at 33 and Achane at the top of round 3.

Or we could trade down with Seattle sending pick 2 for picks 5 and 20 if they would take that and have 5, 12, 20 and 33.

It all comes down to how much our coaches like Lance.
W
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kudos to the 49ers for being willing to cut bait with a top 5 drafted QB after just 2 years
coastalAg
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That's a huge red flag for me. If they are willing to sell him at a discount after what they paid to acquire him then he must really suck.
IrishAg
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coastalAg said:

That's a huge red flag for me. If they are willing to sell him at a discount after what they paid to acquire him then he must really suck.
It's a red flag, but more from an injury concern. They aren't going to go away from Brock Purdy at this point, so might as well get something from Lance before letting him walk when his contract ends. It's a roll of the dice, but if we could get him for a 2nd or 3rd, then I think it's a good roll.
LincolnBorglum79
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New England fans are asking for a Mac Jones for Trey Lance trade. Lance is 6'4" and was 16-0 the last time he played a whole season. But I trust the guys who know him best on our coaching staff. If he were in this draft he would likely be 1 or 2. I would include Mills if they want him, but I wouldn't draft another QB until late. Lance deserves to be the guy and I'd rather improve other parts of the team with the higher picks.
Ryan34
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AG
https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/36243872
ElCheAg
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Ryan34 said:

https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/36243872


That video made me laugh. I like Richardson but not with the #2 pick.
Ryan34
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ElCheAg said:

Ryan34 said:

https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/36243872


That video made me laugh. I like Richardson but not with the #2 pick.

I mostly liked his comments on the misperceptions around Richardson. His film is a lot better than people realize because he's not nearly as inaccurate as the completion percentage implies. Bigger risk is that he just doesn't have very much film as a one year starter.
. . .
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https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-3-qb-bryce-young-has-the-s2
IrishAg
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. . . said:

https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-3-qb-bryce-young-has-the-s2

Wow
Sea Speed
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AG
What is that test? I am only familiar with the wonderlic. (Sp?)

What are some comparisons to current pros on a scale from Lamar Jackson to Ryan Fitzpatrick?
Max Power
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Sea Speed said:

What is that test? I am only familiar with the wonderlic. (Sp?)

What are some comparisons to current pros on a scale from Lamar Jackson to Ryan Fitzpatrick?
The wonderlic IIRC is basically an IQ test.
The S2 tests cognition, how quickly you can process information. If Stroud can't process quickly that bodes very poorly for him. This also could derail Richardson and Hooker, while potentially propelling Levis. I don't know how much stock teams put into this score but it's not unimportant for a QB.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/what-is-the-s2-cognitive-test/

Quote:

While the test is relatively new to the NFL, even retired players like Drew Brees have taken it. He tested at an elite level. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Justin Fields were all elite scorers as well. But S2 has an even greater ace up its sleeve. The 2022 NFL Draft's highest scorer was none other than Mr. Irrelevant, 49ers QB Brock Purdy.
. . .
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https://www.s2cognition.com/post/cognitive-skills-separate-top-nfl-qbs
Quote:

The S2 isn't an intelligence test like the 50-question Wonderlic exam but rather measures how quickly and accurately athletes process information. It's like the 40-yard dash for the brain.

The exam lasts 40 to 45 minutes. It's performed on a specially designed gaming laptop and response pad that can record reactions in two milliseconds. To put that in perspective, an eye blink lasts 100 to 150 milliseconds.

In one section of the exam, a series of diamonds flash on the screen for 16 milliseconds each. Every diamond is missing a point, and the test taker must determine using left, right, up or down keys which part is missing.

In another, the test seeks to find out how many objects an athlete can keep track of at the same time. In another, there are 22 figures on the screen and the athlete must locate a specific one as quickly as possible. The object might be a red triangle embedded in other shapes that are also red.

"We're talking about things they have to perceive on the screen within 16/1,000th of a second, which is essentially subliminal and which scientific literature says you shouldn't be able to process," Ally said. "And I'll be honest with you, we're seeing pro baseball players see something way faster than 16 milliseconds, which has never been reported in literature, all the way to some athletes who may take 150 milliseconds. So our eyes may see the same thing. But for some, it takes longer to process than others."

Ally says the results are predictive.

He couldn't give out Purdy's exact score because it's privileged information but said it was in the "mid 90s." That's about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and the Bills' Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals' Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information.

Of course he did he scored in the 97th percentile.

"We consider anything above the 80th percentile to be elite," Ally said.

The company recently looked at 27 starting quarterbacks. (Some of the older veterans like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers had entered the league before S2 began testing in 2015 and there are no scores for them; Brees took the test while already playing in the NFL.) Of that group, 13 had a career passer rating above 90. The average S2 score of those players was the 91st percentile. Those with passer ratings below 90 had much lower test results.

"Those 14 guys, the average score was in the low 60s," Ally said.
Quote:

Brandon Ally and S2 Cognition co-founder Scott Wylie have been testing NFL prospects' ability to quickly and accurately process information since the 2016 draft. But this is the first year anyone outside of general managers and scouting directors gave it much thought.

"It's wild. We've been in the NFL for a while now. This is like our seventh or eighth draft and it's just now getting noticed," Ally said Wednesday morning during a phone interview. "Obviously, there was a couple of score leaks, which probably had people paying attention and wondering what the heck this was. So I think that's primarily what led to it."

[…]

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young notched a near-perfect 98 (out of 99), while Kentucky's Will Levis scored a 93, a person with direct knowledge confirmed to The Athletic. Those scores measure up well with several successful current or former NFL quarterbacks. Joe Burrow scored in the 97th percentile, while The Athletic's Matt Barrows reported in an in-depth piece on S2 Cognition test in February that former Saints QB Drew Brees, along with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen all scored in the mid-90s.

[…]

The S2 researchers last year studied the scores of the 117 quarterbacks who had taken the test through the 2022 draft. The group included Brees before he retired (the Saints were the first NFL team to have their players tested) and the Vikings' Kirk Cousins, who reached out to S2 and requested to take it. The average score for the quarterbacks was the 68th percentile, compared to the 50th percentile across all positions.

Researchers then narrowed the subset to 27 starting quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL season that S2 had scores on. The company found that the 13 starters with career passer ratings of 90 or above scored in the 91st percentile. The 14 QBs with passer ratings below 90 scored in the 51st percentile (with range from 8 to 90).

The S2 consists of nine different tests, all of which are graded separately. The company has a formula for coming up with an overall score.

"It's like the decathlon. You don't have to win a single event, but you can actually win the decathlon," said Ally, who ran track at Tennessee. "It looks at the pattern of scores based on how others did on those nine tasks."

[…]

As of the new collective bargaining agreement in 2020, S2 can no longer test players currently on NFL rosters. The combine is also off-limits, so S2 now conducts a total of about 800 tests at all-star games, pro days and top-30 visits.
Buck Compton
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That won't hurt Richardson then. He wasn't a top 2 pick anyway. He's close to the elite range, just not at the same level of others.

You need arm strength, at least some mobility, ability to process information quickly, and accuracy. Not all those guys that scored high have all of those other traits.
Sea Speed
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So Lamar Jackson could potentially score elite on this test and Fitzpatrick could bomb. Interesting. I think it would be cool to take that test.
Ryan34
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That helps explain the Texans' lack of interest in Stroud and the buzz around Levis (lots of speculation that Indy will take him).
thann07
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But, the #1 pick didn't matter.

I'm curious to understand more about Levis and how Kentucky lost so many games. That's been my hang up with him.
On the surface, I see a program built on defense and a running game. I would assume that with a Top QB they would explode into a really nice season.
Was it injuries? Bad mix of talent? Underclassmen at key defensive positions that made the defense atypically bad?

Lance Zeirlines mock may wind up incredibly accurate…
Max Power
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Ryan34 said:

That helps explain the Texans' lack of interest in Stroud and the buzz around Levis (lots of speculation that Indy will take him).
I'm really curious how this impacts what is done at 2 in particular. Feels like Anderson is the pick, maybe they look at other guys later in the draft but it's beginning to look like Young is truly the only QB taking that high. I don't know how they can justify one of the other QBs now at 2 over arguably the best defensive prospect in the draft. I still don't think Levis or Richardson are worth taking at 2.
Ryan34
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Max Power said:

Ryan34 said:

That helps explain the Texans' lack of interest in Stroud and the buzz around Levis (lots of speculation that Indy will take him).
I'm really curious how this impacts what is done at 2 in particular. Feels like Anderson is the pick, maybe they look at other guys later in the draft but it's beginning to look like Young is truly the only QB taking that high. I don't know how they can justify one of the other QBs now at 2 over arguably the best defensive prospect in the draft. I still don't think Levis or Richardson are worth taking at 2.

I suspect Zierlein is spot on again and we want Tyree Wilson and Levis.
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