Political fallout and arguments regarding the US-Israeli action against Iran 022824

550,949 Views | 5796 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by flown-the-coop
flown-the-coop
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Like most things in Congress led by Dems it accomplishes little other than a talking point for a new cycle or two.

And it's unconstitutional anyways so there's that. Congress controls the purse. If they want to stop a war, they can defund the military.
We fixed the keg
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Per NBC

Quote:

Wednesday's vote gives momentum for the resolution in the Senate, which had already advanced its own war powers resolution on the floor last month but had not yet held a final vote. The Senate version has teeth, however, and it would require Trump to end the war without congressional approval. But it would need to pass the House, and then Trump could veto it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-votes-rebuke-trump-war-iran-rcna348281
flown-the-coop
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Trump should let it pass, sign it and say whatever happens next is on Congress and move on to Cuba.
K2-HMFIC
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Question for the group:

If the Straits of Hormuz are still closed by XX date it will have a significant impact on the mid-terms in favor of the dems.

My personal assumption is 1 August...curious what your thoughts are.
flown-the-coop
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If price of gas is in a reasonable range, stock market still strong, and no significant supply chain disruptions then the SoH is irrelevant.

That may seem both obvious and far-fetched, but it is a perfectly rational probability.

Outside of gas still running high, we already there. Trump was babbling today about gas prices and doing something but I didn't catch the specifics.

I would RATHER see the SoH open by July 1 as then the rest sort of falls into place. But I don't fear it remaining closed. People adjust.

And well framed question.
K2-HMFIC
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flown-the-coop said:

If price of gas is in a reasonable range, stock market still strong, and no significant supply chain disruptions then the SoH is irrelevant.

That may seem both obvious and far-fetched, but it is a perfectly rational probability.

Outside of gas still running high, we already there. Trump was babbling today about gas prices and doing something but I didn't catch the specifics.

I would RATHER see the SoH open by July 1 as then the rest sort of falls into place. But I don't fear it remaining closed. People adjust.

And well framed question.



I'm seeing some chatter about $150bb oil if this goes on much longer…but I'd defer to the energy traders on here.

My assumption is if SOH stay closed past 1 Sep and oil sky rockets…it's a "Katie bar the door" moment.
flown-the-coop
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So far the oil predictions are about as accurate as lib predictions on racism and white nationalism as threats to our existence… lots of doomsday very little reality.

It was supposed to be Iran shutting in all their wells, Russia becoming the richest in the world, storage facilities and old tankers being filled to the brim and spilling into the Arabian Gulf, and of course $150bbl.
K2-HMFIC
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flown-the-coop said:

So far the oil predictions are about as accurate as lib predictions on racism and white nationalism as threats to our existence… lots of doomsday very little reality.

It was supposed to be Iran shutting in all their wells, Russia becoming the richest in the world, storage facilities and old tankers being filled to the brim and spilling into the Arabian Gulf, and of course $150bbl.


The market has been resilient…it's gonna be interesting to see if it stays that way.
Sq 17
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Diesel , Jet Fuel and Fertilizer will spike before oil
Depending on how much demand destructions happens in the aftermath affects how high oil goes.

Almost nobody uses crude oil its the demand for the products that are made from it which will determine the price

A global recession will bring the price of crude down and the risk of that outcome is probably a factor in oil futures staying around $100 bbl
YouBet
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flown-the-coop said:

Trump should let it pass, sign it and say whatever happens next is on Congress and move on to Cuba.


Damn that would be quite brilliant.
Aston 91
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flown-the-coop said:

Trump should let it pass, sign it and say whatever happens next is on Congress and move on to Cuba.

I like the first part, but for the last part could we just have him move to Cuba instead?
flown-the-coop
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Mar-a-Lago esta en El Notre de Cuba. Commonly referred to as South Florida.
sts7049
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[Do not post X shots that bypass obscenity filters -- Staff]
K2-HMFIC
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K2-HMFIC
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This explains things.
UTExan
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Why people think this is merely Trump's war or Israel's war is strange.
Iran has long been the destabilizer and sponsor of terrorism worldwide. Taking out their leadership and any military capability is doing western civilization a real solid by weakening their patrons Russia and China.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
Ellis Wyatt
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We fixed the keg said:

Massie voted with the Dem's? Shocked! Shocked I tell you....
Thomas Massie (D)- Tehran
Ellis Wyatt
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Aston 91 said:


I like the first part, but for the last part could we just have him move to Cuba instead?
With beliefs like this, it's no wonder you support Dade Phelan/Dustin Burrows. Republican, you say?
Aston 91
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Never said such a thing.
Sq 17
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Just my opinion gasoline prices are drive More by overall economic conditions ( demand ) than actual price of crude.

Crude has to be low a long time before the price of gas appreciably drops and for the price of crude to be low for a long time overall economic conditions are almost always not good.
AlaskanAg99
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What i find super interesting is its a known fact other countries depend more on thr SOH than the US does. And theyre frankly not doing anything to assist in pushing Iran to comply.

1) they are incapable of action. Weak military and/or political ability to influence change.

2) they'll just blame the US but this will all have devastating consequences for their economies and social stability

Congress is now putting handcuffs on Trump. So if we withdraw Iran will have free reign to charge transit passage fees and will quickly rebuild their offensive capability and will be enraged.

Meanwhile other OPEC nations will build static infrastructure pipelines to the Red Sea. These however are easy targets and Iran has already proven they wont hesitate to strike their neighbors.

The US can cap exports, we do NOT have to ship to whomever is buying, we can pick winners and losers.

Feckless leaders will probably make the situation worse for short term gains. This issue of Iran will probably dictate the next 10-20 years of foreign policy.
aTm '99
nortex97
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One of the great things about the '47 administration is that admin folks are freely treating the Dems/Chicom/Iranian apologists with the contempt they so righteously deserve when asked about things like hamas/this war/NGO's etc:


Both of the above yesterday were instances where grandstanding Dems ask a 5 minute rantingly dishonest question pertaining to the Iran conflict expecting to be given respect/to cut off any possible answer and they just got dunked on. There were many more.
Cinco Ranch Aggie
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Well thank you for coming.
YouBet
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AlaskanAg99 said:

What i find super interesting is its a known fact other countries depend more on thr SOH than the US does. And theyre frankly not doing anything to assist in pushing Iran to comply.

1) they are incapable of action. Weak military and/or political ability to influence change.

2) they'll just blame the US but this will all have devastating consequences for their economies and social stability

Congress is now putting handcuffs on Trump. So if we withdraw Iran will have free reign to charge transit passage fees and will quickly rebuild their offensive capability and will be enraged.

Meanwhile other OPEC nations will build static infrastructure pipelines to the Red Sea. These however are easy targets and Iran has already proven they wont hesitate to strike their neighbors.

The US can cap exports, we do NOT have to ship to whomever is buying, we can pick winners and losers.

Feckless leaders will probably make the situation worse for short term gains. This issue of Iran will probably dictate the next 10-20 years of foreign policy.


Remember some weeks ago when Starmer, Macron, et al were pulling together a European coalition to address the SoH and ensure the free flow of oil? They made a big to do about how they were going to address this.

Yeah, that never happened after it was announced because of what you said. My 13 yr old niece might as well have announced that.
YouBet
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Rubio is a gangster. I love him..
Law-Apt_3G
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Adding to list for the fix:
Get married
Have kids
Go to Cristian church with family
Spank kids
flown-the-coop
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I have heard demand destruction mentioned more than a couple of times this week regarding oil markets. Along with more and more reporting of switches to US provided energy.

If all this bad news keeps piling up the DJIA may hit 100k by July 4th.
Reginald Cousins
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Law-Apt_3G said:

Adding to list for the fix:
Get married
Have kids
Go to Cristian church with family
Spank kids


It's kind of important to get Christ right.
Ellis Wyatt
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Aston 91 said:

Never said such a thing.
Ok. We'll bear that in mind when you comment on the Texas House, controlled by democrats, and when you comment on Ken Paxton.
traxter
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I wonder if Mossad gave Bibi a rosy picture that he relayed to Trump, or Bibi lied about what Mossad told him and painted a rosier picture to Trump than what he was told.

flown-the-coop
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That interview does NOT indicate there was any lying or misrepresentation by Mossad to Bibi or Bibi to Trump or Mossad to Trump.

Hack "reporter" asks framed questions to elicit non-committal responses that show the IDF guy being interviewed essentially agreed with what has been made known to date and before the conflict.

Question regarding Iran harassing the SoH >> Answer appears to be "of course they would, anyone knows that" and framed to indicate Trump was not anticipating >> Actual answer is that everyone knew what Iran would do regarding SoH if they chose that response >> The hope was that Iran would see what a disaster that would be for them and choose not to. Same concept asked and applied to missile retaliation.

Regarding regime change, he says at first that Iran was not ripe for MILITARY regime change then goes on to spend about half the segment laying out all the other factors for non-military regime change.

The only positive of the video is that it shows why PBS is going away along with partisan hacks posing at reporters trying to play gotchya games my misrepresenting interviews and biased setup questions.
MagnumLoad
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So, exactly how is Congress putting "cuffs" on Trump?
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
YouBet
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Can we also sign a deal with Russia to get nuke plants built here??

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-russia-sign-25-billion-agreement-build-four-nuclear-power-plants-iran-irna-2025-09-26/
Science Denier
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MagnumLoad said:

So, exactly how is Congress putting "cuffs" on Trump?


By saying anything against Trump and Iran, our treasonous Congress is letting the enemy know they have a shot at winning.
LOL OLD
flown-the-coop
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YouBet said:

Can we also sign a deal with Russia to get nuke plants built here??

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-russia-sign-25-billion-agreement-build-four-nuclear-power-plants-iran-irna-2025-09-26/

Texas Monthly said a teenage built a small fusion reactor in Texas. No other information was disclosed. Not sure if it was Russian or Taliban.
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