Nm

Agree. This thing may have already been over without the never ending desire to "cut a deal".

Per Mike Baker, the Israelis launched a massive wave of jets toward Iran overnight for unknown purposes. Some speculating they were trying to provoke the Iranians to fire on them so they could launch attacks. Others view it as a probing exercise.

The YouTube account Max Afterburner reporting videos from inside Iran showing an aluminum factory exploding with secondary explosions all over the place. Could have been a dual purpose facility and possibly the site for Iranian drone manufacturing. Video was from a few days ago, supposedly. No evidence of an air strike, possible internal sabotage.

BREAKING: Russian airforce TU-134 used to evacuate high ranking personnel has just left Iran with its transponder off rumoured to be picking up Russian scientists from Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

We saw similar evacuation flights before US strikes on Iran in February... pic.twitter.com/dFLvQvesNk

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) October 23, 2026

Never meant to indicate otherwise. Just that they're pulling out, which means that something is likely on the horizon. As is supported by your post.

I think that second tweet was based on a Sky News reporters' coverage a few days ago.

I personally question his knowledge as to what is 'normal' for a CVN to carry/be resupplied at sea in/near a possible combat zone, and suspect this is not abnormal really, but rather fairly routine (yet again, I'm not a navy guy). He does profess in the longer video he's never seen such a resupply (includes food etc. also), seems a bit wowed by the whole experience.

Rare access to 🇺🇸 super-carrier… @GW_CVN73 - a fascinating and revealing few days on the aircraft carrier. Watch on @skynews… and here https://t.co/NbNxA8978O pic.twitter.com/fawNbUQrJk

— Mark Stone (@Stone_SkyNews) October 21, 2026

The USN presumably has reporters there to 'share' this to make sure the Iranians know more is ready/coming/available. The youtube is fairly entertaining though.

Buglerank62 said:

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Our sailors have really earned their keep on the blockade and maximum pressure campaign. Be glad when they can all come home to their loved ones.

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nortex97 said:

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I think that second tweet was based on a Sky News reporters' coverage a few days ago.

I personally question his knowledge as to what is 'normal' for a CVN to carry/be resupplied at sea in/near a possible combat zone, and suspect this is not abnormal really, but rather fairly routine (yet again, I'm not a navy guy). He does profess in the longer video he's never seen such a resupply (includes food etc. also), seems a bit wowed by the whole experience.

Rare access to 🇺🇸 super-carrier… @GW_CVN73 - a fascinating and revealing few days on the aircraft carrier. Watch on @skynews… and here https://t.co/NbNxA8978O pic.twitter.com/fawNbUQrJk

— Mark Stone (@Stone_SkyNews) October 21, 2026

The USN presumably has reporters there to 'share' this to make sure the Iranians know more is ready/coming/available. The youtube is fairly entertaining though.

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A RAS (replenishment at sea) is very common. Much harder in a war zone (see the Lincoln), but the Navy still makes it work.

This jackazz reporter paints the whole scenario as if the US has carriers out in the NAS solely because we were pushed into using carriers by the Iranians. He needs a primer on power projection, a history lesson, and, probably, a prune dou-che.

Sure. There's always a carrier in 5th fleet, but where we are now is not the norm.

Replenishment at sea is not unusual at all. What is unusual is the distances covered by the supply ships (and using other ships to supply the supply ships) since we don't have access to our facilities in the gulf.

The Roosevelt is the third carrier group on the way but according to some reports their stated purpose is to eventually relieve the Washington which would be sent back to Japan.

NukeAg10 said:

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Sure. There's always a carrier in 5th fleet, but where we are now is not the norm.

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The Northern Arabian Sea is not the norm? It was when I flew, more so because of freedom of movement than anything else- the PG was more the exception than the norm, and we've had carriers in the GOO since 1979. Agree to disagree.

Yeah the Washington will almost certainly head back to Japan soon, although some overlap after Election Day is certainly a possibility for another round of strikes. Since it's home port is in Japan it typically doesn't do long deployments like the others and instead does more frequent, shorter cruises.

More smoke signals. It's only a question of when. Everyone knows the IRGC won't give up their nuclear or SOH ambitions and will retailiate with ballistic missles.

U.S. forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald J. Trump, according to two U.S. officials who spoke to CNN. The officials say sufficient forces are in the region and… pic.twitter.com/L48uD4BFyH

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 26, 2026

Does the CIC know tho or will he just continue with his deal making fantasy expecting that posturing with tools of force will make them quit?

He seems to be one of very few that seems to think the IRGC will give up without forcing a major US offensive first.

Will admit he likely knows a lot about what's really going on inside Iran that most of us don't know so I have to qualify there but what's the point of continuing to discuss deals? It feels like weakness/doubt on his part to me.

Pahlavi with a powerful message today, hinting about his return, weakened status of the IRGC/mullahs.

Quote:

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Now, Reza Pahlavi appears to be seeing an end to the theocratic Islamic Republic that has infested Iran since 1979. On Tuesday, he released a lengthy statement on X, directed at the Iranian people, and some of the statements he is making are remarkable and some of them are signs that he may very well see the curtain come down on the mullahs, for good.

It's a remarkable and powerful statement. He begins:

Quote:

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Noble and Brave Nation of Iran,
The Islamic Republic today is no longer the regime that ruled Iran one year ago. This regime is now weaker than ever before, and its missing leader and other ringleaders fear nothing more than the power of the Iranian people; they fear a nationwide and effective uprising that would end the life of this satanic regime.
This criminal sect and its terrorist IRGC have dragged our beloved homeland into war and endangered Iran's very existence. The IRGC's domination over the pillars of the country and the plundering of national resources are the primary causes of the worsening economic and security situation in Iran.
These scoundrels have left the people with neither bread, nor security, nor hope for the future. To preserve their power, they are willing to sacrifice Iran and the Iranian people.

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All this is accurate, right down to the "criminal sect" and "terrorist" parts. Iran, since 1979, has been far and away the world's leading state sponsor of Islamic terrorism. The theocracy is responsible for tens of thousands, probably hundreds of thousands, of deaths, around the region, and around the world. They have brutally repressed their own citizens. They have squashed any dissent with rifle bullets.

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Appealing to the military to be loyal to the people is smart, imho. Traffic thru Hormuz is practically unrestricted now as election day approaches.

Any recent updates?

There's not really much kinetic stuff going on. Some feelers/spin about talks, long vs. short next phase etc.

🔴 Iran updated analysis, October 27
Some observations from the last two days:

1. Yesterday, Regime’s president met Turkey’s intelligence chief in Tehran. The fact that it was the intelligence chief (not the defense minister for instance) is very telling and not normal.… https://t.co/BABCB6n6dP pic.twitter.com/uNQubU7OOj

— Ida Turan 🇮🇷 (@iranidaturan) October 27, 2026

Long post, decent takes.

ETA: Apparently Iran's shadow bankers, surely not the most scrupulous types in the world, are running off with the mullahs cash.

The Iranian regime's "trustees," are deserting. These are individuals who run the regime's trade outside Iran and are running off with billions in foreign currency they hold on its behalf.

Iran's central bank admits $81 billion of export currency never came back, Iran's Audit… https://t.co/zB6qmHibVD

— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) October 27, 2026

That's very interesting. Suggests the Iranian bankers are betting the IRGC falls.

I just think the whole naval blockade and financial sanctions operation is working well. Why change it on Nov 4th?

My new @nypost op-ed: The Islamic Republic only survives on war. Don't give the regime what it craves.

I spent years at @USTreasury squeezing this regime and I want it gone. That's exactly why the next round of bombs should stay in the racks.

This regime is built to fight, not… pic.twitter.com/C0IdAxziBz

— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) October 29, 2026

I hope Trump really does 'TACO' on renewed strikes, and just holds pat. And the 'our friends' the Saudis came back and as usual advised 'more diplomacy.' Who knows if they'd once again just refuse the use of our bases there for more strikes anyway?

I agree it's working but is it enough and if so how long will it take? The rest of the world sans Muslim terrorists benefits from the end of this including most Iranians. Maybe Russia doesn't benefit . China does imo.

nortex97 said:

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I just think the whole naval blockade and financial sanctions operation is working well. Why change it on Nov 4th?

My new @nypost op-ed: The Islamic Republic only survives on war. Don't give the regime what it craves.

I spent years at @USTreasury squeezing this regime and I want it gone. That's exactly why the next round of bombs should stay in the racks.

This regime is built to fight, not… pic.twitter.com/C0IdAxziBz

— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) October 29, 2026

I hope Trump really does 'TACO' on renewed strikes, and just holds pat. And the 'our friends' the Saudis came back and as usual advised 'more diplomacy.' Who knows if they'd once again just refuse the use of our bases there for more strikes anyway?

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I get the argument, but I think some strategic targeted sites will still have value.

The objective of the strikes should be applied to pressure points that support the overall siege. That would include export trade avenues (such that they still exist), drone manufacturing, and eliminating individuals to create instability, doubt, and chaos within the IRGC structure.

halfastros81 said:

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I agree it's working but is it enough and if so how long will it take? The rest of the world sans Muslim terrorists benefits from the end of this including most Iranians. Maybe Russia doesn't benefit . China does imo.

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How do we know it's working?

We initiated a fuel and oil blockade of Cuba back in January and they were supposedly just a few weeks away from societal collapse. Yet, Cuba chugs along.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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halfastros81 said:

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I agree it's working but is it enough and if so how long will it take? The rest of the world sans Muslim terrorists benefits from the end of this including most Iranians. Maybe Russia doesn't benefit . China does imo.

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How do we know it's working?

We initiated a fuel and oil blockade of Cuba back in January and they were supposedly just a few weeks away from societal collapse. Yet, Cuba chugs along.

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Communists (leftists) don't care about the suffering of the people, News at 11.

Well …" knowing " is different than reading the available information and concluding that it's likely working. If you were a shadow Iranian banker would you seize or freeze IRGC assets if you thought they were going to remain in power ? It 's seemingly a death wish. I don't think it's even questionable that their currency is devaluing rapidly which means inflation inside Iran is rampant. Also, where is the money coming from to pay your soldiers if oil exports are essentially nil?

Cuba was different in that they were getting major support from a very powerful Soviet Union. Iran may be getting some support from Russia but it's a shell of what the Soviets were doing and also Iran is much , much bigger in population than Cuba was/is.

Can't wait to just start bombing them into oblivion so this will be over. The seven conditions are nonstarters if they expect us to move first. None of their conditions will be met until they take action first on our conditions. Just start killing their leaders until we get to one that sees the light.

We're not paying for ***** We're not removing sanctions. We're not going to withdraw troops from areas they deem threats. We're not unfreezing assets. We're not removing the blockade.

nortex97 said:

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I just think the whole naval blockade and financial sanctions operation is working well. Why change it on Nov 4th?

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I can see merit in both sides of the blockade vs a 'military option' debate. Mid-term results doesn't favor either IMO. However, the blockade is mostly a short-term low-risk strategy that can last for maybe another 12 months. The approaching 2028 election is a hard deadline - which probably brings us back to a 2027 exit strategy based on a credible military option.