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There is an absolute IRGC bloodbath happening in the Iranian region of Sistan & Balochestan. Assassinations everywhere and almost daily.

I haven't spoken much about this particular battlefield.

As an Iranian nationalist I will never approve of separatism, nor will I blindly praise the JMM militant group. I don't know this group, and as of writing this I don't trust them either. They claim to fight for all of Iran after merging several militant groups together, but at least one faction among them are historically Baloch separatists. They are also very conservative sunni muslims.

Therefore, I won't boost their videos or statements for the time being. Until I know where the Shah and his team stand regarding this group and where they stand regarding him, I won't give them my attention.

However, I can speak about what the last few weeks of fighting could mean for Iran:

Regardless of what I think of JMM, their targets have Iranian blood on their hands and undoubtedly deserve it.

IRGC thugs, basijis, regime linked clerics and foreign proxy terrorists are all being killed at a growing rate. Police stations, bases and checkpoints are raided. Patrols come under attack as they drive through cities. There's been at least one case of fighting reaching the Kerman region. Today, a female basiji commander was assassinated in front of her house. Yesterday, dozens of Afghan proxy terrorists were wiped out. Last month, a regime linked sunni cleric was shot dead. Many of the assassinations are very high ranking.

I don't know what suddenly changed, but it's gotten very deadly and dangerous to be an islamic regime figure in S&B.

What does all of this mean?

1) The islamic regime is losing control.

2) Regime thugs used to feel safe and protected. Now they don't. Psychologically this will do serious damage, especially to lower ranking demoralised basijis who aren't receiving their blood money salaries anymore due to sanctions.

3) If this keeps up, the islamic regime will have to send large forces from other regions to go fight in S&B. I shouldn't have to explain that this will benefit the rest of Iran when the next uprising happens. Thousands of IRGC terrorists forced to fight in the South East means thousands fewer IRGC to oppress Iranians in other provinces. It means evening out the playing field.

Again, this is an analysis, not an endorsement of JMM. They still need to clarify their stance on Iran's territorial integrity, their stance on the Shah, and their stance on separatism and islamism. We also need to know what their actual goal is once the islamic regime is overthrown.

Until then, as far as I'm concerned, the IRGC is getting killed in big numbers from within Iran and seemingly without any outside assistance, and that's what I will focus on.

What's happening in S&B is going to have huge consequences for Iran in the coming months, and everyone should pay attention.

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benchmark said:

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Interesting read. The sooner our decision-makers assume Iran will respond irrationally - the sooner they will decide to cripple Iran's oil infrastructure to such a level that it will require 2+ years to repair.

Tehran is a Different Beast Now

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... Public squabbling and factional rivalries are a hallmark of politics in the Islamic Republic, but are often over-indexed by Western observers, so hope that some internal regime fissure will ease America's dilemma is unrealistic. If the regime survives a few more years, differences between Iran's newly shuffled leaders perhaps could widen into gulfs and present real forks in the road for Iran, but a shared bunker mentality during this crisis almost certainly will keep their tactical disagreements from being too meaningful for U.S. policy.

Right now, too much focus on Tehran's leadership dynamics is a distraction that prevents Washington from stepping back and acknowledging that there is some broad strategic coherence to New Tehran's harder-line posture. Taken collectively, Iran's actions in the past seven months can be read as reflecting a sober reassessment based on its bitter lessons from the war. New Tehran recognizes that there is little to gain by playing it safe: Its only chance to survive is an aggressive posture that imposes enough cost that the United States and its regional partners can no longer easily threaten the Islamic Republic's existence even if that brinksmanship brings the regime's own survival to the edge.

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Claude! said:

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That's the story on how to beat the US since Vietnam. You're not going to beat us in a slugfest - we're too rich and we're too lethal. You beat us by making the continued fight politically unpalatable.

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WSJ: Iran’s Fleet of Shadow Tankers Has Run Out of Oil After Monthslong U.S. Blockade pic.twitter.com/vEBzgIYEEx

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) October 22, 2026

CheersforBeers said:

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This seems promising

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will25u said:

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WSJ: Iran’s Fleet of Shadow Tankers Has Run Out of Oil After Monthslong U.S. Blockade pic.twitter.com/vEBzgIYEEx

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) October 22, 2026

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