I am curious, what makes you think the blockade is a short-term strategy? What changes over the next 180+ days from an American naval and financial perspective?
***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]
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Last: 8 hrs ago by nortex97
Trump has also cancelled all rallies this weekend.
JUST IN: Tonight US Forces reportedly struck an IRGC launch squad in Qeshm Island.
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 29, 2026
Additionally, locals are reporting a series of explosions in Bandar-e-Jask, in the vicinity of the airport. Southern Iran.
Contributed by: @BeamTracker_ pic.twitter.com/T0ptWT5PVm
A US Air Force KC-135 is squawking 7700 over the Dead Sea. https://t.co/Owgb72KAXq pic.twitter.com/1QR2kXL2Ft
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) October 30, 2026
Seems like some fireworks are fixing to pick back up this weekend.
will25u said:A US Air Force KC-135 is squawking 7700 over the Dead Sea. https://t.co/Owgb72KAXq pic.twitter.com/1QR2kXL2Ft
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) October 30, 2026
What does this mean?
Emergency
nortex97 said:
I am curious, what makes you think the blockade is a short-term strategy? What changes over the next 180+ days from an American naval and financial perspective?
Politics. And I said 12 mo's. The first presidential primary is in 15 mo's. Team-red won't want Iran on the 2028 ballot. Iran knows this.
Strikes being reported currently in Iran.
This is the most recent I have seen.
This via The Telegraph in UK
US strikes Iran on eve of midterm elections
This via The Telegraph in UK
US strikes Iran on eve of midterm elections
And for what it is worth, this is from Al Jezeera and says Qeshm Island being hit.
Explosions hit Iran's Qeshm Island as US media report US strikes in Hormuz
Explosions hit Iran's Qeshm Island as US media report US strikes in Hormuz
Good.
Now quit screwing around with little tit for tat defensive strikes and put them into the Stone age.
People who think Trump should pull out of there ought to be glad Trump is President and not me. I'm so done with these people I can't see straight.
50 years of this b*******
Now quit screwing around with little tit for tat defensive strikes and put them into the Stone age.
People who think Trump should pull out of there ought to be glad Trump is President and not me. I'm so done with these people I can't see straight.
50 years of this b*******
Apparently some small tankers have continued to make it through.
That shouldn't be happening imho. The largest ULCC tankers carry up to 4 million barrels, so these 'handymax' size and below tankers might be tougher to track I'd guess.
Quote:
The group, United Against Nuclear Iran, conducted the months-long probe and said at least 10 Iranian tankers transporting sanctioned liquefied petroleum gas or Iranian oil have snuck past the U.S. blockade since it was established in the Strait of Hormuz in July.
UANI identified one of the sanctioned tankers as the SOGL, which allegedly escaped the blockade on Sept. 1 and was carrying approximately 500,000 barrels of Iranian LPG that it collected at an Iranian port in August, according to Fox News.
The tanker reportedly then transported the oil to Malaysia and then on to China where it discharged the cargo.
"What this shows us is that some vessels are managing to breach the U.S. maritime blockade," Senior UANI analyst Jemima Shelley said of the footage shared with Fox News.
"Most vessels aren't, but since the reinstatement in mid-July, we have seen only nine small tankers being successful in their breach of the U.S. blockade and departing the Gulf of Oman laden with oil or LPG," she added.
The analyst noted that the blockade has been successful in thwartinglarge ships that carry more than two million barrels of crude oil, but it has not always been successful with the smaller tankers that can carry 500,000 barrels.
"The U.S. blockade is an overwhelming success at preventing vessels laden with Iranian oil and petrochemicals from leaving the Gulf of Oman," Shelley said. "It's just that there are some opportunistic small tankers that are just managing to breach the blockade."
That shouldn't be happening imho. The largest ULCC tankers carry up to 4 million barrels, so these 'handymax' size and below tankers might be tougher to track I'd guess.
What would you do to put them in the "stone age"?
nortex97 said:
That shouldn't be happening imho. The largest ULCC tankers carry up to 4 million barrels, so these 'handymax' size and below tankers might be tougher to track I'd guess.
SOGL isn't a small ship. It's rated as a VLGC (very large gas carrier). It's hard to imagine a VLGC slipping past the US blockade. Back door deal?
ETA: Or maybe we choose not to interdict loaded LNG tankers for safety reasons?
Since they were going to China it's possible the Trump administration agreed to let them through as a favor to Xi in exchange for whatever else. They had the big summit in Washington last month.
No idea. I'd be skeptical of such a deal existing, just found the reporting/claim interesting/surprising.
Are we thinking regardless of the Election Day outcome strikes will continue within the next week? Significant strikes or continued smaller strikes?
CheersforBeers said:
Are we thinking regardless of the Election Day outcome strikes will continue within the next week? Significant strikes or continued smaller strikes?
Strikes will continue until morale improves.
Could see a quick pivot away from Iran if Trump is actually looking at cleaning house, with Hegs at the top of the list. Big IF for now, though.
President Trump is reportedly asking advisors whether Hegseth should remain in his job -CBS
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
Vance's statement today indicates a higher likelihood of a negotiated end. We will see though.
And as it turns out over the last few weeks we have been conducting some strikes against Iran that have not been publicly announced by the US or acknowledged by the Iranians.
And as it turns out over the last few weeks we have been conducting some strikes against Iran that have not been publicly announced by the US or acknowledged by the Iranians.
It would seem to me to be rather ******ed to drag this war out through the elections, ruin your hopes of holding Congress, and then just settle. Maybe he just wants to give up after the lashing they took last night, but doesn't make any sense from a strategic standpoint
txaggie_08 said:
It would seem to me to be rather ******ed to drag this war out through the elections, ruin your hopes of holding Congress, and then just settle. Maybe he just wants to give up after the lashing they took last night, but doesn't make any sense from a strategic standpoint
Agreed. Would've thought he would do the opposite. Wait until after mid term and then go full on attack
Rossticus said:
Could see a quick pivot away from Iran if Trump is actually looking at cleaning house, with Hegs at the top of the list. Big IF for now, though.President Trump is reportedly asking advisors whether Hegseth should remain in his job -CBS
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
why? I thought the whole operation has been a sterling success?
sts7049 said:Rossticus said:
Could see a quick pivot away from Iran if Trump is actually looking at cleaning house, with Hegs at the top of the list. Big IF for now, though.President Trump is reportedly asking advisors whether Hegseth should remain in his job -CBS
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
why? I thought the whole operation has been a sterling success?
The idea might have been terrible, but our military execution has been tremendous under Hegseth.
What would replacing him accomplish that he's not doing now?
If you are Israel, something has to be done sooner than later. They cannot let Iran finish those 11 nuclear missies for which they have enriched uranium And their support and lack of retaliation from US will be much better in next two months before Congress changes and votes to end the war. So, i expect Israel to at least lead attack on pickaxe mountain supported by US air power. Any military action to overthrow the IRGC and regime change would be led by Israel with support from US to extent it happens, and will take place in next two months. With time so short, i am expecting the escalation to begin in the next week.
sts7049 said:Rossticus said:
Could see a quick pivot away from Iran if Trump is actually looking at cleaning house, with Hegs at the top of the list. Big IF for now, though.President Trump is reportedly asking advisors whether Hegseth should remain in his job -CBS
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
why? I thought the whole operation has been a sterling success?
It can be successful and unpopular.
Rossticus said:
Could see a quick pivot away from Iran if Trump is actually looking at cleaning house, with Hegs at the top of the list. Big IF for now, though.President Trump is reportedly asking advisors whether Hegseth should remain in his job -CBS
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
I think Pete has done an outstanding job.
The troops respect him, and he's got the balls to make our military a fighting force again, not a social experiment
I doubt any sort of negotiated exit from this will be favorable to the US now. I doubt Iran will give up control of the strait and force everyone to pay into their protection racket. So we'll end up worse off than before all this started.
Trump's latest mistake was thinking the midterms would go well and force Iran's hand. Well, it didn't. So now he's even worse off than he was a week ago. Should have just bombed them to the stone age and left before the elections.
Trump's latest mistake was thinking the midterms would go well and force Iran's hand. Well, it didn't. So now he's even worse off than he was a week ago. Should have just bombed them to the stone age and left before the elections.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
Ducks4brkfast said:sts7049 said:Rossticus said:
Could see a quick pivot away from Iran if Trump is actually looking at cleaning house, with Hegs at the top of the list. Big IF for now, though.President Trump is reportedly asking advisors whether Hegseth should remain in his job -CBS
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
why? I thought the whole operation has been a sterling success?
The idea might have been terrible, but our military execution has been tremendous under Hegseth.
What would replacing him accomplish that he's not doing now?
Scapegoat
Ducks4brkfast said:sts7049 said:Rossticus said:
Could see a quick pivot away from Iran if Trump is actually looking at cleaning house, with Hegs at the top of the list. Big IF for now, though.President Trump is reportedly asking advisors whether Hegseth should remain in his job -CBS
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
why? I thought the whole operation has been a sterling success?
The idea might have been terrible, but our military execution has been tremendous under Hegseth.
What would replacing him accomplish that he's not doing now?
100%....UNLESS.... Pete was the one begging Trump to go into Iran. Other than that, Pete has been a great addition to the US Military. It's there to win wars. Pete has done that. He'd take out Iran in two weeks if he was allowed to .
Yesterday said:Ducks4brkfast said:sts7049 said:Rossticus said:
Could see a quick pivot away from Iran if Trump is actually looking at cleaning house, with Hegs at the top of the list. Big IF for now, though.President Trump is reportedly asking advisors whether Hegseth should remain in his job -CBS
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
why? I thought the whole operation has been a sterling success?
The idea might have been terrible, but our military execution has been tremendous under Hegseth.
What would replacing him accomplish that he's not doing now?
100%....UNLESS.... Pete was the one begging Trump to go into Iran. Other than that, Pete has been a great addition to the US Military. It's there to win wars. Pete has done that. He'd take out Iran in two weeks if he was allowed to .
The biggest problem with Trump's military efforts throughout all of his terms is that he thinks the military is there to make deals happen. His priority is always to make the deal, and military action is just a tool to make that happen. When he runs into people that are not interested in making a deal no matter how much you hit them, he has no idea what to do. His attempts to work with Putin on Ukraine and to negotiate a deal with Iran prove that out. Putin has snubbed him and rubbed his nose in Russia's war crimes repeatedly, and Don is still standing there like Charlie Brown waiting for his chance to kick the ball again.
Hegseth has done more to modernize the pentagon and bring the military mission back into focus than anybody in the last 2 decades. He understands that you have to fight to win, not fight to make a deal. And the Ds hate him for it.
Some administration officials are pushing President Trump to launch new strikes on Iran, while others want the US to cut its losses and wind down operations - WSJ
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
Rossticus said:Some administration officials are pushing President Trump to launch new strikes on Iran, while others want the US to cut its losses and wind down operations - WSJ
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
Bomb the ****ing **** out of them. Level those ****wads and end this ****ing thing before the socialists are sworn in.
What do you have to lose?
LOL OLD
Rossticus said:Some administration officials are pushing President Trump to launch new strikes on Iran, while others want the US to cut its losses and wind down operations - WSJ
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 4, 2026
At this point cut the losses. Dont leave the middle east. Stand firm and choke them financially
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