Surely you need more than a marine radar that's $5000 to acquire and target

Over the past seven full days, crude oil exports departing the US Navy blockade line averaged 6.7 million barrels per day.

This figure reflects our extensive research, which combines AIS data with hundreds of daily satellite images, including the visually identified AIS-offline… pic.twitter.com/0B3kMCyCBW

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 30, 2026

BCrusher91 said:

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Surely you need more than a marine radar that's $5000 to acquire and target

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Depends on the weapon. It would take more to know which specific ships to target.

BCrusher91 said:

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Surely you need more than a marine radar that's $5000 to acquire and target

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Not if they're using FPV drones with pilots sitting 15 miles offshore on a fishing boat with a $5k Garmin radar.

I think I sink some fishing boats. Fishermen should stay out of the SOH!!

"Confront American warships"

They will not get anywhere close to an American warship.

Greenpeace can do better.

Use US air power to ensure that no boats, no matter the size, go to or from the Iranian coast.

benchmark said:

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BCrusher91 said:

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Surely you need more than a marine radar that's $5000 to acquire and target

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Not if they're using FPV drones with pilots sitting 15 miles offshore on a fishing boat with a $5k Garmin radar.

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An interesting theory. Those 'fishermen' apparently have not done much of that in the much of August, with 1/7th of their strikes hitting a ship that delivered grain to the IRGC. While secure comm's are always a challenge, I also suspect they utterly lack such, fortunately. I also doubt Garmin (or other such) is helping them out.

The 'IRGC controls Hormuz' narrative has basically run out of steam, imho.

ETA: sometimes intelligence data gathering builds up like a tumor/cancer, with the right resources anyway.

Tonight, US forces conducted the first strikes on Iran in weeks, hitting IRGC forces preparing to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz from Larak Island. pic.twitter.com/phn89hFdoH

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 30, 2026

nortex97 said:

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benchmark said:

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Not if they're using FPV drones with pilots sitting 15 miles offshore on a fishing boat with a $5k Garmin radar.

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An interesting theory. Those 'fishermen' apparently have not done much of that in the much of August, with 1/7th of their strikes hitting a ship that delivered grain to the IRGC. While secure comm's are always a challenge, I also suspect they utterly lack such, fortunately. I also doubt Garmin (or other such) is helping them out.

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Obviously, Iran is on the short end of the stick. However, the question still remains - how is Iran managing to hit a half-dozen moving ships off the Omani coast and 30+ miles from the Iranian coast.

That it is so rock stupid simple to hit a giant floating oil tanker a few miles away and they can't do it speaks volumes. It's just…not happening.

Ryan McBeth published a video last week about naval targeting and why it is so difficult. It was mainly focused on Chinese long-range anti-ship missiles but it does have some relevance to the Iranian war.

Iran likely has some capability of hitting the short range Hormuz targets with guided drones, although I'm sure the US is heavily degrading the guidance signals via jamming and physical destruction of infrastructure.

There's some near-future capability out there of AI-guided visual seekers that would not rely on a link to an operator but not sure Iran has that capability as of right now. The way it works is you just launch toward a target area and the seeker will pick the target based on machine learning visual and thermal cues. Once those are in mass production they will very difficult to stop absent physical intercept.

Iran had some fast-moving drones they launched early in the war to take out fixed targets with success. Hitting a moving target is a completely different animal.

nortex97 said:

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That it is so rock stupid simple to hit a giant floating oil tanker a few miles away and they can't do it speaks volumes. It's just…not happening.

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The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center has just issued a warning after receiving a report last evening that a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz inbound approximately 12NM north of Khasab, Oman. There are no… pic.twitter.com/Dcp19OUfzz

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 30, 2026

[Trolling won't get you anywhere but a timeout -- Staff]

BREAKING: Iran is attacking U.S. forces in Jordan after American forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, a U.S. source tells FOX News' @TreyYingst.

No significant impacts have been reported so far, and nearly all incoming missiles have been intercepted,… pic.twitter.com/E2zCTG7Auf

— Fox News (@FoxNews) August 30, 2026

Is anyone that were naysaying since mid-March at least willing to accept that we might have a play here? seems like we have a vice grip on the regime's nuts, if nothing else. That's leverage.

Im skeptical because we heard that a few weeks after the initial strikes (Epic Fury) that they were positioning themselves to flee the country, but I'm not sure how commonplace that was before this all.

It certainly seems like we have a severe amount of painful leverage now that we didnt have just a month ago, and it sounds like the screws will be tightening furthermore AND we dont really need their approval to push oil through the Strait.

Any way, after this degredation, that we can allow free communication in theater? Is the internet still down there?

It doesn't seem like they have anything to stop rapid deployment, if that was a strategic objective, at this point.

Centcom confirmed the US strikes on rocket launchers, stating they were going to be used to launch mines into the Strait.

Jordan confirms eight ballistic missiles launched from Iran. Not seeing report of any successful impacts.

Trump just posted a bunch of AI videos of Kharg Island being blown up.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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Jordan confirms eight ballistic missiles launched from Iran. Not seeing report of any successful impacts.

Trump just posted a bunch of AI videos of Kharg Island being blown up.

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Ducks4brkfast said:

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ErnestEndeavor said:

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Jordan confirms eight ballistic missiles launched from Iran. Not seeing report of any successful impacts.

Trump just posted a bunch of AI videos of Kharg Island being blown up.

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I wish he'd post a real video of it being blown up but I don't think he has the stones

nortex97 said:

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benchmark said:

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BCrusher91 said:

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Surely you need more than a marine radar that's $5000 to acquire and target

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Not if they're using FPV drones with pilots sitting 15 miles offshore on a fishing boat with a $5k Garmin radar.

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An interesting theory. Those 'fishermen' apparently have not done much of that in the much of August, with 1/7th of their strikes hitting a ship that delivered grain to the IRGC. While secure comm's are always a challenge, I also suspect they utterly lack such, fortunately. I also doubt Garmin (or other such) is helping them out.

The 'IRGC controls Hormuz' narrative has basically run out of steam, imho.

ETA: sometimes intelligence data gathering builds up like a tumor/cancer, with the right resources anyway.

Tonight, US forces conducted the first strikes on Iran in weeks, hitting IRGC forces preparing to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz from Larak Island. pic.twitter.com/phn89hFdoH

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 30, 2026

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the tweet i posted above shows overall, exports from the region are still less than half of what they were prior to the war. if you don't want to call it control, fine, but you can't state that we are back to normal. far from it.

and further:

Past seven days daily average of crude oil exports via the SoH was 3.8 Mbpd. During the MoU period (which in effect only lasted for 25 days), it was 9.8 Mbpd. https://t.co/8WQciAhAFG

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 30, 2026

That account's numbers have been all over the place. A more recent revision is much higher than 3.8/day.

TankerTrackers: USN Blockade Line
6.7 mb/d | SoH: 3.8 mb/d
CENTCOM: SoH ~8-10 mb/d
Kpler: Total Hormuz clearance
8.6 mb/d avg. since June 17
Goldman:Total Gulf exports ~15-16 mb/d
Before comparing the prints, check the counting line. #oott https://t.co/Zd4V7YG3Rw

— Bengü Zirek (@benguzirek) August 30, 2026

They've tended to claim a detailed analyses further out. I don't really think they are consistent, but to each their own. An inbound tanker that was empty apparently was struck again. I don't know what by/how seriously.

I do think it's silly to believe Iran 'controls' the strait of hormuz on the basis of 9 total strikes on shipping in the month of August given the rebounding traffic and their own inability to ship anything.

sts7049 said:

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nortex97 said:

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benchmark said:

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BCrusher91 said:

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Surely you need more than a marine radar that's $5000 to acquire and target

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Not if they're using FPV drones with pilots sitting 15 miles offshore on a fishing boat with a $5k Garmin radar.

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An interesting theory. Those 'fishermen' apparently have not done much of that in the much of August, with 1/7th of their strikes hitting a ship that delivered grain to the IRGC. While secure comm's are always a challenge, I also suspect they utterly lack such, fortunately. I also doubt Garmin (or other such) is helping them out.

The 'IRGC controls Hormuz' narrative has basically run out of steam, imho.

ETA: sometimes intelligence data gathering builds up like a tumor/cancer, with the right resources anyway.

Tonight, US forces conducted the first strikes on Iran in weeks, hitting IRGC forces preparing to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz from Larak Island. pic.twitter.com/phn89hFdoH

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 30, 2026

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the tweet i posted above shows overall, exports from the region are still less than half of what they were prior to the war. if you don't want to call it control, fine, but you can't state that we are back to normal. far from it.

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The trend is the point and it's pointing in the right direction

Appreciate the updates. Evidently the strikes on the "rocket launchers" were to prevent the Iran from launching rockets with mines attached to them in a desperate workaround to using the goat / cigarette boats to lay mines.

Strong indication of just how desperate Iran has become to try and maintain harassment of the SOH.

The other benefit of Iran self-isolating itself (by harassing neighbors and the SOH) is that if they move into a self-destruct approach, the impact on global markets is already being / has been offset.

Good, positive trends developing. Continued prayers for the safety of our troops and for the vast majority of Iranians subject to the horrible regime. May those days be numbered.

As someone that has dealt with marine operations in the Arabian Gulf and transited vessels through the SoH, I don't know how any of these carriers are able to get insurance for these vessels that are currently passing through the straits. Insurance providers have no appetite to take any real risk if there is a reasonable chance that the vessel will receive a military strike. I can only assume that either the home country of these vessels is taking the risk (possible) or the vessels are not carrying any insurance during the transit (unlikely). Maybe it is somewhere in between where they have coverage for 3rd party claims but no coverage on the vessel itself.

Courtesy Flush said:

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As someone that has dealt with marine operations in the Arabian Gulf and transited vessels through the SoH, I don't know how any of these carriers are able to get insurance for these vessels that are currently passing through the straits. Insurance providers have no appetite to take any real risk if there is a reasonable chance that the vessel will receive a military strike. I can only assume that either the home country of these vessels is taking the risk (possible) or the vessels are not carrying any insurance during the transit (unlikely). Maybe it is somewhere in between where they have coverage for 3rd party claims but no coverage on the vessel itself.

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Yes the elephant in the room. Doesn't matter what we do insurance thru a active war zone is hard to get
And at the price available it's not even worth getting. I'm surprised it's not more of a conversation here I thought at one point it was several Supply chain guys on this forum. Iran only needs to hold the threat to set the market they don't even have to act.

Just becuase we say it's open and safe seems like the insurance company's don't believe us.

If the IRGC is not getting money they will ultimately be screwed with the people and the government will fall. Just takes time. Question is, do the American people have the patience? Meanwhile we are not using many munitions and any lives.

Courtesy Flush said:

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As someone that has dealt with marine operations in the Arabian Gulf and transited vessels through the SoH, I don't know how any of these carriers are able to get insurance for these vessels that are currently passing through the straits. Insurance providers have no appetite to take any real risk if there is a reasonable chance that the vessel will receive a military strike. I can only assume that either the home country of these vessels is taking the risk (possible) or the vessels are not carrying any insurance during the transit (unlikely). Maybe it is somewhere in between where they have coverage for 3rd party claims but no coverage on the vessel itself.

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Buyer/seller countries are the only particpating entities with pockets deep enough to assume the risk.

Trump posts AI slop with the caption, “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!!” pic.twitter.com/HVTF9xFC6B

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 31, 2026

Let's go!

The Kharg Island video was intended as a warning to Iran, not an announcement of a military action. HTH.

[If you want to contribute to the discussion on the military conflict and efforts to end it, please weigh in. If you insist on simply trying to spread hyper negativity and repost material we removed, you can count on time off -- Staff]

This is a big deal.

🛢️🇦🇪The world's 4th largest single site refinery just came back online.

Iran's drone strike on ADNOC Group's Ruwais refinery in March knocked out one of the Gulf's most important fuel export hubs.

The complex processes over 922,000 barrels of crude and condensate a day, the… pic.twitter.com/jw0UbgxUtE

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) September 1, 2026

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The world's 4th largest single site refinery just came back online.

Iran's drone strike on ADNOC Group's Ruwais refinery in March knocked out one of the Gulf's most important fuel export hubs.

The complex processes over 922,000 barrels of crude and condensate a day, the 4th-largest single site refinery in the world.

Ruwais returned to full capacity about a month ago.

Product exports have recovered to roughly 70% of pre war levels, still short of the 600,000 bpd of diesel, jet fuel and naphtha it used to ship before the strike.

The timing matters....

US diesel crack spreads hit a record $102.20 a barrel on August 17.

Northwest European diesel hit a record premium of almost $95 over crude the next day.

More than 20% of the Middle East's 9.6 million bpd of refining capacity has been knocked out during the war.

Combined, Hormuz shipping disruptions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have pulled roughly 1.4 million bpd of diesel off the market since March, close to 1/5 of the diesel that actually moves in international trade.

Ruwais isn't recovering alone.

Kuwait's 615,000 bpd Al Zour refinery has also restarted, while Saudi Arabia's Jizan plant, which used to supply 6-8% of EU and UK diesel imports, hasn't loaded a diesel cargo since late July.
The recovery is real, but it's patchy and partial.

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And even when the Iranians maintained some significant control over the Hormuz strait, Adnoc (Abu Dhabi) was the group running more than others through it anyway. Now they will have much more inventory, and Iran has limited resources to strike again. Yes, the recovery is still 'in progress' but it is a steady one imho.

There are a couple other threads this would be pertinent on too.