nortex97 said:

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It is great to see, because if the traffic through the strait, even without Iranian crude shipments, is at 2/3 pre-war, then factoring in what is now being shipped via pipeline elsewhere would mean we are likely at 80-90 percent pre-war or more in reality from the Qatari/Kuwaiti/Iraqi/UAE/Saudis

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Iran only had one chess move ... disrupt the world's oil supply and hold the world hostage. It's not going to happen.

Meanwhile, the US naval blockade has been a total success. And just last week, Bessent declared total war on Iran's economy. Uh oh! At the same time, Iran's proxy prospects are looking gloomy ... Hamas and Hezollah (current Israeli target practice), Iraqi militias (current gov pressure to disarm), Houthis (running out of hot air).

Maybe not checkmate, but getting real close.

What a great move dredging that channel.

Even Supreme Leader acknowledges the pain.

Also, Iran ambassadors reaching our asking for diplomacy.

Queso1 said:

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What a great move dredging that channel.

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Seriously doubtful that is anything more than a bs internet rumor. The "reported" channel size would take a lot of very large dredges a long time. You can hide dredges or spoil in that magnitude in what is probably currently the most surveilled place on earth.

Science Denier said:

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So, if this works without Iran bombing these boats, Rrulo would have totally neutered the terrorist regimes of both Venezuela and Iran.

In less than 2 years in office.

Wow.

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I am beginning to believe the U,S. actions in Venezuela were intentionally done prior to any action in Iran. This would mitigate the anticipated impact of oil disruption by Iran.

lack of China demand has had a far bigger impact on oil price

EFR said:

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Queso1 said:

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What a great move dredging that channel.

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Seriously doubtful that is anything more than a bs internet rumor. The "reported" channel size would take a lot of very large dredges a long time. You can hide dredges or spoil in that magnitude in what is probably currently the most surveilled place on earth.

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The explanation was right in the posted tweet.

Do you have any evidence or links indicating the reports are false?

Some tasty irony in the past dissatisfaction over Trump's rhetoric on the on again off again diplomacy. Here we were all bent about the iranians stalling for their benefit, but it turns out that it was Trump stalling to complete the dredging of a new shipping channel.

[Stop derailing this thread with political commentary -- Staff]

All of Trump 2.0 foreign policy can be distilled down to protecting future energy resources to choke Chinese and Russian adventurism around the globe.

Purely long-term strategic energy plays to ensure we have access to cheaper oil & gas to power a global conflict. Happy byproducts are relationship building and turning countries (Venezuela and other historically more left-leaning central/South American countries that have tremendous growth potential) away from bellicose or outright hostile postures and pull toward US hegemony in the western hemisphere when things go hot.

EFR said:

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Queso1 said:

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What a great move dredging that channel.

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Seriously doubtful that is anything more than a bs internet rumor. The "reported" channel size would take a lot of very large dredges a long time. You can hide dredges or spoil in that magnitude in what is probably currently the most surveilled place on earth.

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not to mention, the shortcut doesn't even get you out of Iran's line of sight. you'd still have to traverse the gulf islands too. Our carrier groups would still be well within range of the anti ship missiles they are armed with.

but its a nice morale boost as we head into election season i guess.

If anyone wonders why there’s been no tanker oil release incidences in the area this is why. The “strikes” are relatively weak for such hardened steel superstructures. They can be repaired fairly readily and quickly and returned to service

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) August 29, 2026

The Iranians are blindly firing weak stuff at this point. Note: that's basically the whole month of August.

I mean, it's been pretty obvious to those aging attention that they don't possess the capabilities they once did. Thanks for posting the updates, with facts and relevant information from sources to boot.

Believe curvature of the earth was also mentioned regarding line of sight.

Regarding the dredging of of a route as cited in the x post shared by will25u, it remains unconfirmed as of this morning though it should remain of note that clearing of mines, US oversight (direct and satellite based), limited Iranian capabilities and the like continue to allow for movement of goods through the strait - and prevent movements we do not approve of.

Regardless, Irans anti-ship missile capabilities seem a bit limited these days as per Nortex post above.

You even have the ayatollah asking for talks.

I don't think Iran owns anything in the Strait…it's becoming more clear and thus insurance is relaxing and shipping is ramping back up.

I know that may frustrate some people but Trump may just win this thing

'Limited' is an exaggeration even.

🚨 An embarrassing video shows the Islamic Republic sending Basij volunteers in fishing boats and cheap, low-tech speedboats into the Persian Gulf to confront American warships.

The volunteers wave Islamic Republic flags as they head toward the Strait of Hormuz in small…

— The Iran Watcher (@TheIranWatcher) August 30, 2026

Perhaps comical is a better term.

If we're down 80% of missiles imagine how low Iran is running.

Keep the blockade. Let the regime begin to starve. Get Venezuelan oil online asap.

BCrusher91 said:

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I don't think Iran owns anything in the Strait…it's becoming more clear and thus insurance is relaxing and shipping is ramping back up.

I know that may frustrate some people but Trump may just win this thing

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If the dredging ends up being true while Trump was "negotiating" that will be one of the biggest military misdirections in a long time. Iran has full intelligence support of Russia and while they were looking in the strait we were working in Oman.

Trump may be the first president in a long time to use common sense. Don't tell the enemy what your plans are before you do it

Grok says:

No. The United States is not dredging the Strait of Hormuz (SOH). A viral claim circulating in late August 2026 that U.S. forces secretly dredged a new 1,600-foot-wide deep-water corridor on the Omani side is inaccurate.
The passage in question is a long-charted natural gap known as Bab Musandam or Fakk al Asad, between the Musandam Peninsula and Musandam Island. Nautical charts have shown it as already deep enough (naturally exceeding ~28 meters / 93 feet) for decades, with no signs of recent engineering or new excavation in satellite imagery. Fact-checks note the images used in the claim do not show a VLCC-sized vessel and that the route offers no concealment from Iranian observation. There has been no official confirmation from the U.S. military, White House, or Omani authorities.
What U.S. forces have been doing in the strait is mine-clearing (not sediment dredging). CENTCOM announced that Navy divers, SEALs, and supporting air assets removed Iranian mines from the international shipping lanes after months of operations. President Trump and Adm. Brad Cooper stated the main lanes were cleared, allowing more tanker traffic under U.S. protection, though some independent assessments have questioned whether every mine is gone.

flown-the-coop said:

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Believe curvature of the earth was also mentioned regarding line of sight.

Regarding the dredging of of a route as cited in the x post shared by will25u, it remains unconfirmed as of this morning though it should remain of note that clearing of mines, US oversight (direct and satellite based), limited Iranian capabilities and the like continue to allow for movement of goods through the strait - and prevent movements we do not approve of.

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"Line of sight" and "earth's curvature" are mostly radar related, not visual. In the summer months visibility in the strait is limited to only a few miles due to haze (humidity and airborne dust). The outer Omani islands provide some radar "cloaking" benefit, but not for the entire transit. For perspective, the dredged passage is only 3 miles west of the published Omani passage. Maybe the dredged passage is for separating shipping lanes? Maybe it hides ships from radar a for few extra (but critical) miles? Maybe it improves stationing on EW equip on the outer islands for radar jamming?

Dredging and/or clearing mines to utilize a previously compromised shipping lane will still have the same effect and positive outcome for oil transit through the SOH. It's an interesting discussion to be sure, but don't get bogged down in the semantics and overlook this as the tremendously beneficial development that it is.

I think the dredging story originally posted by another is likely mis- or over-represented and as mentioned a few times now has not been confirmed by anyone else. Though it was stated early on, some are really turnt up about denying progress. Who knows why.

To your post and some others this morning, the important development is continued expansion of transit through the straight. Whether it be clearing of mines or other obstacles. The passage referenced as being dredged may have already been able to allow transit of larger ships and there was some "clearing" which was reported as some clandestine dredging operation.

Really doesn't matter as the resulting impact on movement of goods is what matters. And that seems to be moving the right way and gaining momentum, which is good for everyone in the world except for Iran.

I don't think we are jamming anything (and we don't want ships running into each other of course), the Iranians don't have radars covering the area at this point. Smaller ships are used to haul oil out for ship to ship transfers, which I presume are faster as well, using the small channel that might have just been cleared of some 'dangerous' rocks vs. a real dredging operation, and likely not suitable for the ULCC enormous city-sized tankers which basically never come into port/close to land.

The other point is that Weimar Iran is today the reality, not the future impact of the very real and effective naval blockade.

🚨 The Islamic Republic is approaching the kind of currency collapse once associated with Weimar Germany as people increasingly need bundles of banknotes just to buy ordinary goods.

With the U.S. dollar now trading at around 2 million rials, images circulating from Iran show… pic.twitter.com/dQNnlqPQpN

— The Iran Watcher (@TheIranWatcher) August 29, 2026

We should ship them ink and paper and label it humanitarian relief.

It's interesting Iran wants diplomacy and for others in the world to help them out… in particular those countries whom they have shot at their countries, their ships, their goods and such.

Iran implemented a very poor strategy by weaponizing the SOH and attacking their neighbors, allies and neutral parties.

Add on BiBi is already saying that no matter any diplomatic outcome they will attack Iran if they deem it in their interests.

What are Kushner and Witkoff up to these days? I don't recall hearing much out of them lately.

I believe we are headed for a good resolution of this whole affair. Just sit back and watch them run out of everything including money. Seems like a good strategy to me.

I don't think Kushner and Whitkof have much to do at this point. Just watching.

Wait, what? I thought Iran was winning. That's what some top analysts keep telling me, https://t.co/FIWstft1dt

— Brit Hume (@brithume) August 30, 2026

Understand that. If they a truly "just watching" that's telling in itself.

Ayatollah changing his mind on diplomacy and now calling for all Muslims to join forces against "the enemy".

Maybe it's just me, but does anyone else see the difficulties associated with unprovoked bombing of your neighbors for months on end and then calling on them to unify against your enemy (not theirs)?

It's like the Ayatollah's brain is scattered…

But if you go back to the early days when Iran started their counter offensive and their harassing the SOH, their was a bunch of criticism for not anticipating or expecting Irans reaction.

I think it was considered but determined to be absolutely a ******ed move that it was labeled very unlikely - then Iran did about the dumbest thing(s) they could do if their goal was to get folks aligned against the US.

Buglerank62 said:

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I believe we are headed for a good resolution of this whole affair. Just sit back and watch them run out of everything including money. Seems like a good strategy to me.

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Yep, since May it was apparent that what we needed to do was shut Trump up and strangle these guys economically and with the blockade until they turned on eachother.

The Islamic Republic's problem is basically that they spent revenues to expand military capabilities of both Hezbollah and the Houthis (and other groups such as Hamas) while visibly terrorizing their own aggrieved citizens, creating a fertile field for a very adept espionage service like Mossad. We don't know what assets Mossad currently has in Iran, but I suspect it is still somewhat robust. I would not discount "accidents" involving Iranian leadership or infrastructure.

nortex97 said:

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I don't think we are jamming anything (and we don't want ships running into each other of course), the Iranians don't have radars covering the area at this point.

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Marine radars are plentiful and cheap as dirt. A typical marine radar on a small commercial boat (Iranian fishing boat) costs less than $5k and can detect a tanker-size ship from about 20-25 miles.

agent-maroon said:

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Maybe it's just me, but does anyone else see the difficulties associated with unprovoked bombing of your neighbors for months on end and then calling on them to unify against your enemy (not theirs)?

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These people are DUMB.

And by dumb, I mean DUMB

flown-the-coop said:

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Understand that. If they a truly "just watching" that's telling in itself.

Ayatollah changing his mind on diplomacy and now calling for all Muslims to join forces against "the enemy".

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lol. You see, Mr Ayatollah, blocking all Middle East countries from getting goods and then bombing them is a sign to them that YOU are their enemy.

I get logic may not be your strength, but bombing someone means they are your enemy.

UTExan said:

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The Islamic Republic's problem is basically that they spent revenues to expand military capabilities of both Hezbollah and the Houthis (and other groups such as Hamas) while visibly terrorizing their own aggrieved citizens, creating a fertile field for a very adept espionage service like Mossad. We don't know what assets Mossad currently has in Iran, but I suspect it is still somewhat robust. I would not discount "accidents" involving Iranian leadership or infrastructure.

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I assume they are there inside Iran waiting on a much weakened regime before we hear from them. When we do it could be very big news.

They could be selling pagers again. One thing about Mossad as we've seen they are extremely calculated and over the top at planning.