flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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it's widely verified

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verified as in "unknown projectile" launched from an "unknown location"striking an "unnamed ship" that reportedly hit an engine room disabling unknown ship with no reports of other damage or injuries to crew.

Seems pretty verified.

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took all of 5 seconds to find

Iran attacked an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this evening while it was transiting the US protected lane -UKMTO

The vessel was struck in its engine room, and has lost power. pic.twitter.com/OTX9nNe6p5

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 24, 2026

The report is from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre.

https://www.ukmto.org/

ErnestEndeavor said:

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The report is from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre.

https://www.ukmto.org/

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There is a report. That is verified. The UKMTOC just receives a call on the "tip line" and puts it out for public consumption.

The details of the "attack" remain "unverified" and certainly lack relevant details to make any sort of assessment of impact on risk to those choosing to transit the Oman route.

With the motivation by certain sides to issue reports that are intended to undermine the flow of goods through the SOH that Iran does not like, these "reports" should be met with a healthy skepticism, certainly until actual information like the ships name, what the projectile was and where it came from are known.

The UKMTOC report was from 4pm central time yesterday. If this was a big deal, we would no a hit more by now, one would think.

Seems like Iran and US are settling in for a modern version of a city siege.

-Looks like the blockade is inflicting damage.
-Iran is going to take pot shots at ships
-Iran is going to get its network of wide spread agitators up and running
-Iran is hurting for goods and money- how long can it withstand isolation?

The IRGC and its supporters will fight to the death it appears.

So we may have to give it to them.

What the remaining 90% of Iranians do remains to be seen.

[Grandstanding on moderation won't get you anywhere but a timeout -- Staff]

Buglerank62 said:

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As long as the IRGC does not fire drones or missiles at them.

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As I've said before, we need to tell Iran that ANY damage to ANY ship will come out of the frozen funds that we have of theirs.

This would make the insurance companies and ships a lot less wary of going through the strait, knowing they'll be compensated if there is damage.

And Iran will be less inclined to blow things up, since they'd be paying to fix the damage themselves. And that money will be gone FOREVER, so even if sanctions are lifted later, they don't get it back.

Iraq is showing higher crude exports because Iranian crude is getting mixed into it and being shuttled through the prosperity tankers.

That’s why none of the prosperity tankers are being targeted in the Oman lane. https://t.co/Z62phRNZRa

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) August 26, 2026

IRGC missile strikes seem to have fallen off a cliff.

At the start of the war, the opponents predicted:

$200 a barrel oil (its $88 as I type this).

Sunk US ships (none).

Hundreds of US deaths (its around 20).

Total disaster for the US geopolitical position (instead Iran shot at 13 different countries.)

Now the big pro Iran… https://t.co/5tzyV2ioEs pic.twitter.com/ZRoLsYbRQm

— Andrew Follett (@AndrewCFollett) August 25, 2026

and yet here we still are with restricted movements

Strait traffic trends lower#MarineTraffic data show vessel traffic declining across both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 25 August. The Strait of Hormuz recorded five confirmed crossings, down 28.6% day on day from seven. Two vessels entered the Middle East Gulf and… pic.twitter.com/dX8HDLBz6f

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) August 26, 2026

Brent crude dropping for 3 days belies the open AIS trackers claims that traffic has fallen again. The simple explanation is that their signals are turned off while in/near the Omani route.

Quote:

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Key Points:

• Crude prices have fallen sharply as Iran-Oman talks, Pakistani mediation and other signals raise hopes that Washington and Tehran are searching for a way to de-escalate.
• The price move is running well ahead of the physical recovery, with Hormuz vessel traffic still severely depressed and Gulf energy infrastructure remaining disrupted.
• Diesel and gasoil cracks have fallen from extreme peaks but remain exceptionally elevated as Gulf refinery outages and Russian export restrictions continue to constrain supply.
• The biggest downside risk is a meaningful reopening of Hormuz, while the upside risk is that markets have priced a diplomatic breakthrough that proves much harder to deliver.

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#2 Iran and Oman Discuss Temporary Hormuz Corridor:

Iran and Oman held talks on establishing a temporary joint navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and clearing remaining mines. Iranian officials described a seven-mile-wide temporary route primarily through Iranian… pic.twitter.com/ydZf7wVKk5

— @TopListCreations (@TopListCre41839) August 26, 2026

🇶🇦 There's a detail buried in Qatar's LNG recovery that deserves more attention than it's getting.

2 of Qatar's LNG trains, 12.5 MTPA of combined capacity, were damaged by Iranian retaliatory strikes after the war started at the end of February.

Exports basically stopped.… pic.twitter.com/enqrVdGsau

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) August 21, 2026

As Nortex said, it appears this data continues to be incorrect. They're not able to track all ships with their transponders turned off.

Saw a tweet earlier that talked about the fact the large VLCC tankers are staying outside of the Strait while smaller ships with transponders turned off are running the Hormuz route back and forth to then fill the larger tankers.

The price of oil is showing you that oil is getting out. Commercial inventories are growing year over year although the SPR is being drained. The price of gas remains elevated because refining capacity is still running low and the crack spread is massive.

sts7049 said:

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and yet here we still are with restricted movements

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IMO, be skeptical of SOH traffic reports. There's a lot of guessing going on regarding dark transits. I suspect there may be more unreported transits happening using "shuttle tankers" and STS transfers. For example, here's another report from yesterday.

A busy day in the Gulf of Oman, where there are at least fifteen sets of STS transfer sessions taking place. We count 25 million barrels of crude oil; plus some refined products. The oil originates from almost every country in the region, minus Iran.#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers pic.twitter.com/TAba26mJiW

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 25, 2026

.

CNBC had the Kipler(?) guy on yesterday and he was saying that collating this tanker movement data is extremely challenging because there are several data sources they have to put together and the data is not readily available in the first place.

So, I would agree these reports have to be taken with a grain of salt. There is definitely some guess work in these numbers.

The price of oil tells the real story in my opinion.

kuwait flagged tanker reportedly struck in the soh

[Users are engaging you with substantive counter-arguments. Instead of trolling posts, you need to engage in-kind in a good faith effort at discussion. -Staff.]

I think this has been floated on this board, but take the frozen Iranian funds and use some portion as compensation for any ship hit. If a ship is sunk, Iran buys the whole ship and cargo. If a sailor is killed, compensation should go to the sailors family.

Only seems right.

Pretty positive take (also Sal Mercogliano);

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Much of the commentary has been speculative, and has focused on how complete a blockade on Iran would be. But the blockade and sanctions measures taken do not have to be 100% effective to exert decisive pressure. The watch on oil movements maintained by Kpler provides a basis for estimating when the Iranian regime will be forced to either escalate the war or come to terms; a point will come when it will no longer be possible to ignore the impact of Operation Economic Outcast.

The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is proving to be 100% effective. Iran is no longer able to load oil at Kharg Island, having run out of shipping capacity to hold the oil afloat, as tankers are unable to exit the Gulf. Only one VLCC tanker has loaded at Kharg during August. A similar story prevails for petrochemical biproducts and derivatives; without further storage space on product tankers, refineries in Iran will soon be forced to close down and lay off their workforces.

Exports to China, which traditionally has taken 90% of Iranian exports, now therefore need to be drawn from the Iranian stockpile built up before the war, a stockpile held afloat off Malaysia and China. According to Kpler, Iranian oil stocks afloat appear to have declined from 192 million barrels in mid-April to about 80 million barrels at the end of August. The fall in stocks is lower than previously predicted, because China has cut back its Iranian crude purchases, plus the amount of GCC oil leaving the Gulf and American production has increased, providing alternative sources to meet Chinese demand. Nonetheless Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahir reckons that at current discharge rates, and with cargos paid for two months after discharge, receipts from Iran's export reserve afloat will dry up early in the New Year.
...
It also seems unlikely that global support for Iran will grow the ships of too many nations have been attacked by Iran, and Iran's track record of destabilizing governments across the region is unlikely to have won many friends, especially when Secretary Bessent is advertising that he is compiling a target list to "tighten the noose and block every potential source of revenue that funds the IRGC and the Iranian regime." Flights to Iran, ship registries hosting the Iranian dark fleet, those supporting ship-to-ship transfer operations and banks facilitating the transfer of funds to pay for cargoes, are all likely to be targeted, with cumulative effect. As the Kpler analysis concludes, Iran can carry on with the status quo for a short while. But as the pressure builds it will be forced either to escalate the conflict and invite counter-attack or consider its negotiating position, if the IRGC hardliners are to ensure their own survival.

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YouBet said:

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CNBC had the Kipler(?) guy on yesterday and he was saying that collating this tanker movement data is extremely challenging because there are several data sources they have to put together and the data is not readily available in the first place.

So, I would agree these reports have to be taken with a grain of salt. There is definitely some guess work in these numbers.

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yes, but collectively there is enough out there to have a reasonable view on what is really moving.

here's another snapshot.

Strait of Hormuz | Windward Daily Intelligence

I've said this before. Make a list of Irans 20 biggest airports and tell them every time a ship is hit, we take out a runway, terminals, planes, etc at one of the airports on the list the same week they hit a ship.

After completely taking out several airports, this foolishness would stop imo.

Quote:

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.... As the Kpler analysis concludes, Iran can carry on with the status quo for a short while. But as the pressure builds it will be forced either to escalate the conflict and invite counter-attack or consider its negotiating position, if the IRGC hardliners are to ensure their own survival.

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Who has the IRGC bending a knee on their bingo card?

Mas89 said:

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I've said this before. Make a list of Irans 20 biggest airports and tell them every time a ship is hit, we take out a runway, terminals, planes, etc at one of the airports on the list the same week they hit a ship.

After completely taking out several airports, this foolishness would stop imo.

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I like the idea in theory but if the IRGC truly has it setup as autonomous zones it might be more difficult for them to stop but you would think they would be motivated to communicate with those nomadic zones and tell them to cut their s*it.

I have no idea why that hasn't happened either. As with the delay for a 'tip reward' for location data around their leadership, hopefully that happens next.

🛢️🇸🇦🇨🇳Saudi crude Aramco has sold 4 million barrels to China just this month using a specific workaround for the Strait of Hormuz and the company has now offered even more for September loading using the same method.

2 VLCCs, Singapore Prosperity and Algeria Prosperity, loaded… pic.twitter.com/nU2SGxPiTy

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) August 26, 2026

The motivation for the 'work arounds' to be kept as quiet as possible are pretty obvious.

Blackbeard94 said:

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I think this has been floated on this board, but take the frozen Iranian funds and use some portion as compensation for any ship hit. If a ship is sunk, Iran buys the whole ship and cargo. If a sailor is killed, compensation should go to the sailors family.

Only seems right.

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It has and Trump has publicly stated it as something he would do, but we haven't. As far as we know.

Also, much of Iran's frozen funds are not in our possession. They sit in institutions in Europe and Asia. We obviously have influence on that, but we don't directly control it.

TRUMP: Posts image declaring “mission accomplished” in 2026 alongside U.S. military forces and Iran’s Khamenei pic.twitter.com/AD5Tf96fyx

— Trump Truths (@trumptruthsbot) August 26, 2026

Wtaf?

There’s some evidence from recent satellite photos of Oman that the U.S. has dredged out a path for tankers shown here and if so there’s no wonder Iran can’t see or target anything pic.twitter.com/z8Av0D3MfG

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) August 27, 2026

🚨Recent satellite imagery suggests that the Department of War has conducted a covert dredging operation to open up a never-before-used shipping corridor through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz.

The corridor in question is an approximately 1,600-foot-wide waterway with a… pic.twitter.com/i9gNwO3Qob

— Morse Report (@MorseReport) August 28, 2026

will25u said:

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🚨Recent satellite imagery suggests that the Department of War has conducted a covert dredging operation to open up a never-before-used shipping corridor through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz.

The corridor in question is an approximately 1,600-foot-wide waterway with a… pic.twitter.com/i9gNwO3Qob

— Morse Report (@MorseReport) August 28, 2026

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This is huge

So, if this works without Iran bombing these boats, Rrulo would have totally neutered the terrorist regimes of both Venezuela and Iran.

In less than 2 years in office.

Wow.

Science Denier said:

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So, if this works without Iran bombing these boats, Rrulo would have totally neutered the terrorist regimes of both Venezuela and Iran.

In less than 2 years in office.

Wow.

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Praying things go well. There's gonna be mountains of crow to digest if they can pull this off.

How helpful to let our enemies know what we're doing!

Has this been posted...

Quote:

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Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war's impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs

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Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs https://t.co/HB0bmMGHEW

— Bloomberg (@business) August 28, 2026

OldArmy71 said:

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How helpful to let our enemies know what we're doing!

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If Russia is supplying Intel, they already knew.

Which is why this info was released. Its not a secret.

It is great to see, because if the traffic through the strait, even without Iranian crude shipments, is at 2/3 pre-war, then factoring in what is now being shipped via pipeline elsewhere would mean we are likely at 80-90 percent pre-war or more in reality from the Qatari/Kuwaiti/Iraqi/UAE/Saudis.

Another source;

BIG: Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 15–16 million barrels/day — about two-thirds of pre-war levels, Goldman Sachs says.

Tankers are increasingly “going dark” and using ship-to-ship transfers to bypass disruptions, helping push oil down to ~$89 from $120+ in April. pic.twitter.com/zjC6rnM3Su

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 29, 2026